The Primer: Week 16 Edition (2022 Fantasy Football)

Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens

• BAL -7.5, O/U 37.5
• Falcons vs. Ravens Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Huntley under center, the Ravens have been 29th in neutral pace with the second-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Last week in Ridder’s first start, the Falcons sprinted at an insane 19.3 seconds per snap in neutral situations while going 50/50 with their run: pass play ratio. The Falcons also utilized no-huddle on 25% of their neutral snaps to help Ridder. We’ll see if these elements continue this week.

Quarterbacks

Desmond Ridder: In his first NFL start Ridder completed only 50% of his 26 passing attempts for a disappointing 3.7 yards per attempt. While he did run the ball six times for 33 yards, this isn’t enough to make up for his dreadful passing efforts. He finished as the QB28 in fantasy. While Baltimore has been on the decline as a pass defense, this still doesn’t make Ridder anything more than a basement-level QB2 in 2QB or Superflex leagues. Since Week 10, Baltimore has been 21st in success rate per dropback, 14th in EPA per dropback, 14th in passing yards per game, and 16th in explosive pass rate allowed.

Tyler Huntley: This game will be disgusting, with sub-standard quarterback play littering the field. Huntley hasn’t flashed anything in his two starts. He has yet to throw a passing touchdown while completing only 59.5% of his passes for 5.3 yards per attempt. Huntley has been the QB26 and QB31 in fantasy since Week 14. Huntley falls into the same 2QB/Superflex forced to play bucket as Ridder. Since Week 10, Atlanta has been 26th in success rate per dropback, 30th in EPA per drop back, and 27th in yards per attempt allowed to quarterbacks. Those numbers don’t make me any further inclined to start Huntley and instead offer some slight hope that he can move the offense and support a pass catcher this week.

Running Backs

Week 15

Cordarrelle Patterson: Since Week 11 Patterson has lived in the 46-58% snap range averaging 13 touches and 60.5 total yards. He has two games with at least three targets over that stretch but he’s still yet to finish a game this season with more than 20 receiving yards. Patterson is 25th in yards after contact per attempt, 22nd in breakaway rate, and 42nd in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 50 carries). Patterson is a low-end RB3 against Baltimore’s stout run defense. Since Week 10, the Ravens are first in rushing success rate, third in rushing yards per game, first in EPA per rush, and fifth in explosive run rate allowed. Baltimore has given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs over their last five games.

Tyler Allgeier: Last week, Allgeier saw a season-high 17 carries that he turned into 139 yards on the ground for his first 100-yard rushing day of the season. His snap count still sat in a familiar range at 49%. Allgeier has hit his stride as a rusher jumping to ninth in yards after contact per attempt, 20th in breakaway rate, and 15th in PFF’s elusive rating. With 12-15 totes incoming again this week against a top-five run defense, he remains an RB3 that likely falls short of expectations if he doesn’t get in the end zone.

Week 15

J.K. Dobbins: Since returning in Week 14, Dobbins has ripped off back-to-back 100-yard rushing outings. He has averaged 14 carries for 122.5 rushing yards finishing as the RB19 and RB10 in fantasy. When active, Dobbins has crushed, ranking 29th in yards after contact per attempt, seventh in breakaway run rate, and 29th in PFF’s elusive rating. Dobbins is an RB2 taking on a soft Atlanta run defense. Since Week 10, Atlanta has been 30th in rushing success rate, 31st in rushing yards per game, 23rd in EPA per rush, and 24th in explosive run rate allowed.

Gus Edwards: Edwards has averaged ten carries and 60.5 rushing yards over the last two games with Dobbins in the lineup. He has only one red zone carry in his last two games (Dobbins, four). Edwards has also been an efficiency monster when he’s been active, ranking 11th in yards after contact per attempt and 15th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 50 carries). Edwards is a good bet for 12-15 carries this week as an RB3 that could finish inside the top 24 running backs if he spikes the ball for six points.

Wide Receivers

Demarcus Robinson: With Huntley under center the last three games, Robinson has a 24.7% target share (6.7 targets per game) while averaging 40.7 receiving yards. He has had 1.54 yards per route run and a 25% target per route run rate (one red zone target) since Week 13. Robinson has finished as a WR4 (WR37, WR38) in two of his last three games. Robinson is a WR4 this week that will run about 92% of his routes against A.J. Terrell (since Week 10: 26.7% catch rate, 61.8 passer rating) and Darren Hall (since Week 10: 77.8% catch rate, 142.6 passer rating).

Drake London: Last week with Ridder, London soaked up a 42.3% target share (11 targets), producing seven receptions and 70 receiving yards. He finished with a 46.6% air yard share and 2.41 yards per route run. Even zooming out to his last two games, London has been a volume monster with a 46% target share (11.5 targets per game) with 46.6% of the team’s air yards and 3.24 yards per route run. London finished as the WR20 and WR36. London is a WR3 that is 19th in red zone targets among wide receivers. He will run about 72% of his routes against Marlon Humphrey (65% catch rate, 67.6 passer rating) and Brandon Stephens (61% catch rate, 97.9 passer rating). Since Week 8, the Ravens have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers and the third-highest catch rate to wide receivers overall.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews: With Huntley tossing him passes over the last three games, Andrews has seen a 24.7% target share (6.7 targets per game), averaging a disappointing 33.7 receiving yards with zero touchdowns. Andrews has accounted for 30.5% of the team’s air yards, with 1.07 yards per route run since Week 13. Andrews has only one TE1 finish in this stint (TE10). If Huntley can deliver him catchable targets this week, Andrews should have a bounceback game as a TE1. Since Week 10, Atlanta is 20th in receiving yards per game, 31st in yards per reception, and 29th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.

BUF vs. CHI | NO vs. CLE | HOU vs. TEN | SEA vs. KC | NYG vs. MIN | CIN vs. NE | DET vs. CAR | ATL vs. BAL | WAS vs. SF | PHI vs. DAL | LV vs. PIT | GB vs. MIA | DEN vs. LAR | TB vs. ARI | LAC vs. IND

Washington Commanders vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -7, O/U 39.5
• Commanders vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Taylor Heinicke as Washington’s starter, they are 23rd in neutral pace and third in neutral rushing rate.
• With Brock Purdy under center, the 49ers are 27th in neutral pace and fourth in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Taylor Heinicke: Heinicke is a QB2. Since assuming the starting role, he’s the QB25 in fantasy points per game. Heinicke is 46th in PFF passing grade, 40th in adjusted completion rate, and 22nd in fantasy points per dropback. The 49ers have been a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks. Since Week 10, this pass defense is first in success rate per dropback, first in fantasy points per game, and third in yards per attempt allowed to quarterbacks.

Brock Purdy: Purdy has been a solid QB2 in his nearly three full games as the 49ers’ starter. Since Week 13, he’s finished as the QB18, QB8, and QB14 in fantasy. Purdy is 34th in PFF passing grade, 21st in adjusted completion rate, and 19th in yards per attempt (minimum 50 dropbacks). Since Week 10, Washington has been third in success rate per dropback, second in EPA per drop back, and second in passing yards per game. As if that wasn’t enough, Washington is also seventh in pressure rate. Purdy is 28th in pressured PFF passing grade and 36th in pressure-adjusted completion rate (minimum 25 pressured dropbacks). Purdy is a low-end QB2 this week.

Running Backs

Brian Robinson: Since Week 10, Robinson has averaged 19.4 touches and 97.2 total yards as the RB20 in fantasy points per game. Over his last five games, Robinson is 32nd in yards after contact per attempt, 13th in missed tackles forced, and 25th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). Robinson is an RB3 this week against the stonewall known as the 49ers’ run defense. Since Week 10, they are seventh in rushing success rate, second in EPA per rush, first in rushing yards per game, and second in explosive run rate allowed.

Antonio Gibson: Gibson has seen his role diminish in recent weeks. In two of his last three games, he has played less than 50% of snaps (42%, 49%). Since Week 12, he’s averaged ten touches and 46.7 total yards. Gibson has been one of the most inefficient running backs in the NFL this season. He’s ranked 46th in juke rate, 34th in evaded tackles, and 39th in yards created per touch. Against a top-tier 49ers run defense, Gibson is an RB4.

Christian McCaffrey: Since San Francisco lost Elijah Mitchell to injury, McCaffrey has morphed back into a week-winning elite running back. He’s played at least 82% of snaps in two of his last three games while averaging 24.3 touches and 145.7 total yards. Since Week 13, he’s handled 80% of the team’s red zone carries while leading all running backs in high-value touches. With his 23.9% target share and 0.7 end zone targets per game over this span, he’s a matchup-proof RB1. The Commanders’ run defense has exhibited some cracks in the pavement recently. Since Week 10, they are 24th in rushing success rate, 21st in EPA per rush, and 27th in explosive run rate allowed. McCaffrey is the RB1 overall.

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin: Since Week 7, McLaurin is the WR21 in fantasy with a 29.8% target share (8.4 targets per game), 20% endzone target share, 44% air yard share, and 2.73 yards per route run. McLaurin is third in deep targets and 33rd in red zone targets (four over his last three games) among wide receivers. He’s a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 that will run about 78% of his routes against Deommodore Lenoir (72.1% catch rate, 88.3 passer rating) and Janoris Jenkins (2021: 62.8% catch rate, 98.0 passer rating).

Jahan Dotson: Since Week 13, Dotson has taken over as the second option in the passing game behind McLaurin with a 22.4% target share, 50% end zone target share, 28.6% air yard share, and 2.37 yards per route run. Dotson saw a season-high 43.8% snap rate in the slot, which could continue this week. If that’s the case, then Dotson will run nearly half of his routes against Jimmy Ward (82.1% catch rate, 96.2 passer rating), who has been unable to stop anyone from the slot. Since Week 10, the 49ers have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers. Dotson is a WR4 and strong flex this week.

Curtis Samuel: Since Week 13, Samuel has had a 17.9% target share (six targets per game) with a 25% end zone target share and 18.9% air yard share. In those two games, his route run rate has dropped to 70%, and his yards per route run sit at 1.91. Samuel has run about 62% of his routes from the slot over the last two games, so if it’s not Dotson running circles around Ward, it will be Samuel. Samuel has only two red zone targets over his last seven games. He’s a WR4/5.

Deebo Samuel: Samuel has been ruled out.

Brandon Aiyuk: With Purdy under center, Aiyuk has an 18.2% target share (5.3 targets per game), 31.6% air yard share, and 1.4 yards per route run. Aiyuk’s fantasy finishes were all over the map at WR44, WR28, and WR73 last week. Aiyuk has zero red zone targets with Purdy under center and hasn’t managed more than 60 receiving yards in any game. Aiyuk is a WR4 that will run about 78% of his routes against Danny Johnson (73.9% catch rate, 70.9 passer rating) and Kendall Fuller (60.7% catch rate, 91.6 passer rating).

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas: Thomas has one game all season with more than 45 receiving yards and only one receiving touchdown. Thomas has fallen down the pecking order for targets in this run-heavy offense. He hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 11. Thomas is a low-end TE2. Since Week 10, the 49ers are 12th in fantasy points per game and third in yards per reception allowed to tight ends.

George Kittle: Kittle crushed souls against Seattle, arguably a top-three matchup for tight ends. In his two other starts with Purdy, he’s averaged four targets and 25 scoreless receiving yards per game. Kittle is the TE5 this season with a 17.8% target share and 16.5% air yard share. He’s a low-end TE1 this week which says more about the position than Kittle’s outlook. Since Week 10, Washington has been first in receiving yards per game and seventh in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.

BUF vs. CHI | NO vs. CLE | HOU vs. TEN | SEA vs. KC | NYG vs. MIN | CIN vs. NE | DET vs. CAR | ATL vs. BAL | WAS vs. SF | PHI vs. DAL | LV vs. PIT | GB vs. MIA | DEN vs. LAR | TB vs. ARI | LAC vs. IND

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys

• DAL -5.5, O/U 46.5
• Eagles vs. Cowboys Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 8, the Eagles are third in neutral pace and 17th in neutral passing rate.
• Over the same period, Dallas has been fifth in neutral pace and 23rd in neutral passing rate. They have moved from a run-balanced to a run-heavy offense.

Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew: Minshew will start this week with Jalen Hurts dealing with a shoulder injury. Last year in two starts, Minshew completed 67.2% of his passes with 7.3 yards per attempt. He was the QB10 and QB17 in fantasy in those games. Minshew should enjoy similar success this week as a borderline QB1 against a floundering Dallas pass defense. Since Week 14, they have fallen apart, with injuries piling up. In this small two-game sample, they have been 28th in success rate per dropback, 27th in EPA per dropback, 24th in yards per attempt, and 23rd in passing yards per game. With a solid offensive system around him, an elite offensive line, and a cupboard full of skill players, Minshew is the perfect replacement for Hurts as a streamer this week.

Dak Prescott: Prescott has been inconsistent lately. Since his return from injury, he’s the QB10 in fantasy, ranking 19th in PFF passing grade, 26th in big-time throw rate, and 19th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). He’s finished as the QB15 or lower in two of his last four games. Prescott’s erratic play needs to smooth out this week, or it will be a long day for him and the Cowboys’ offense. Since Week 10, Philadelphia has been 12th in success rate per dropback, eighth in EPA per dropback, 11th in explosive pass rate allowed, and sixth in pressure rate. Prescott is a low-end QB1.

Running Backs

Miles Sanders: Last week Sanders saw a surprisingly light workload considering the smash matchup on the ground. He played 55% of the snaps with 12 touches and 29 total yards. The last time these two teams played, he managed 62% of the snaps with 19 touches and 72 total yards as the RB15 for the week. Sanders is sixth in red zone touches, 12th in evaded tackles, and eighth in breakaway runs. Don’t be surprised if the Eagles lean on him more heavily this week with Minshew under center. Since Week 10, Dallas has been eighth in rushing success rate, 20th in rushing yards per game, and 25th in explosive run rate allowed. Sanders is an RB2.

Tony Pollard: Since Week 12, Pollard has averaged 17.8 touches and 83.8 total yards with three top 20 running back weeks (RB2, RB6, RB17). Pollard is a big play waiting to happen, ranking third in total touchdowns, sixth in yards per route run, 15th in evaded tackles, and second in breakaway runs. Since Week 10, Philadelphia has been 16th in rushing success rate, 11th in EPA per rush, 19th in rushing yards per game, and 13th in explosive run rate allowed. Pollard is a borderline RB1.

Ezekiel Elliott: Over his last four games, Elliott has averaged 18.3 touches and 84.6 total yards. He has scored a touchdown in seven straight games played, including the last time he played the Eagles (13 rushes, 81 rushing yards, and a score). Since Week 12, he’s rediscovered some of his former juice, ranking 11th in yards after contact per attempt, 13th in missed tackles forced, and 21st in breakaway rate (minimum 20 carries). He’s also seen a recent bump in his pass game usage, with at least three targets in two of his last four games. Elliott is an RB2 with RB1 upside.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown: The last time these teams met, Brown was blanketed by Trevon Diggs on 62% of his routes as Diggs held him to two targets, one reception, and 11 receiving yards in shadow coverage. I want to say that Dallas will do this again, but this is also the same ignorant coaching staff that didn’t put Diggs in Zay Jones‘ back pocket last week. Jones destroyed them all game when the simple solution was to take him away with Diggs. The assumption of rational and intelligent coaching. Sigh. Brown is the WR8 in fantasy with a 29.2% target share (eighth), 39.8% air yard share (fourth), and 30.1% target per route run rate (ninth). Brown is sixth in deep targets and 13th in red zone targets this season while also sitting at second in yards per route run. If Brown isn’t shadowed by Diggs (67.6% catch rate, 89.2 passer rating), then he’ll see Diggs, Nahshon Wright (career: 50% catch rate, 77.1 passer rating), and Kelvin Joseph (66.7% catch rate, 149.3 passer rating) on 74% of his routes as a WR1.

DeVonta Smith: Smith is the WR25 in fantasy with a 25.3% target share (20th) and 29.2% air yard share (26th). He is 18th in deep targets and 42nd in red zone targets. Smith is 12th in YAC and 22nd in yards per route run. He’s seen at least eight targets in each of his last six games. If Dallas puts Diggs on Brown, then Smith should eat Wright and Joseph alive all game. Smith is a WR2.

CeeDee Lamb: In the last eight games with Prescott back, Lamb has had a 25% target share, 34% air yard share, 2.80 yards per route run, and 26% target per route run rate. He has five weeks as a top 20 fantasy wide out. The big issue with Lamb over this period is his 5.6% end zone target share which can explain his four receiving touchdowns despite the massive volume. Lamb is a WR1 that will run about 61% of his routes against Avonte Maddox (83.3% catch rate, 92.6 passer rating).

Michael Gallup: With Prescott back, Gallup has a 16.7% target share and a 24.4% air yard share. Sadly he’s only managed to produce 1.14 yards per route run and one game as a WR3 or better. Gallup is a WR5 that will run about 93% of his routes against James Bradberry (45.5% catch rate, 45.7 passer rating) and Darius Slay (50% catch rate, 65.7 passer rating).

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert: Goedert looks like he’ll make his return this week. Before going down with an injury, Goedert was the TE3 in fantasy points per game. He has the fourth-highest target share, 12th-highest air yard share, and second-most YAC among tight ends. Goedert has eight red zone targets in nine games played. Dallas is fourth in fantasy points per game, sixth in receiving yards per game, and first in yards per reception allowed to tight ends. Goedert is a TE1 despite the tough assignment.

Dalton Schultz: With Prescott, Schultz has a 19.4% target share, 38.9% end zone target share, 1.95 yards per route run, and a 68.5% route run rate. Schultz has been a TE1 in five of his last eight games. He is seventh in red zone targets and 12th in receiving yards among tight ends. The Eagles have utilized zone coverage on 62-64% of their snaps this season. Schultz could be leaned on heavily by Prescott this week, as beating zone is his bread and butter. Schultz has seen 62.5% of his target volume against zone, ranking eighth in yards per route run (minimum ten zone targets). Schultz is a TE1.

BUF vs. CHI | NO vs. CLE | HOU vs. TEN | SEA vs. KC | NYG vs. MIN | CIN vs. NE | DET vs. CAR | ATL vs. BAL | WAS vs. SF | PHI vs. DAL | LV vs. PIT | GB vs. MIA | DEN vs. LAR | TB vs. ARI | LAC vs. IND

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• PIT -3, O/U 39.5
• Raiders vs. Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 8, the Steelers are 26th in neutral pace and sixth in neutral rushing rate.
• Across their last eight games, Las Vegas has been 15th in neutral pace and 14th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Derek Carr: Carr has been a QB1 in four of his last seven games. Since Week 9, Carr has been a better fantasy option than a real-life NFL quarterback. He has been ranked 27th in PFF passing grade, 16th in yards per attempt, 35th in adjusted completion rate, and tenth in turnover-worthy plays (minimum 50 dropbacks). The Steelers’ defense has gelled down the stretch, which is no Bueno for Carr this week. Since Week 10, they are 13th in success per dropback, seventh in passing yards per game, and seventh in pressure rate. Carr has fallen apart when pressured this season, ranking 25th in pressured completion rate and 33rd in pressured accuracy rating. Carr is a QB2.

Kenny Pickett: Pickett is a low-end QB2. He’s 30th in fantasy points per game, 28th in fantasy points per dropback, 34th in yards per attempt, and 33rd in money throws. Since Week 10, the Raiders have been 17th in success rate per dropback, 15th in EPA per drop back, and 21st in passing yards per game. Pickett has managed to finish as QB16 or better only twice this season.

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs: Jacobs is the RB2 in fantasy points per game as he’s steamrolled toward a career-best season. Jacobs is first in opportunity share, third in weighted opportunities, and tenth in red zone touches. Jacobs has at least 21 carries in each of his last six games. He hasn’t finished lower than RB20 in any game since Week 8. Jacobs is ninth in juke rate, second in evaded tackles, and fourth in breakaway runs. Jacobs is an every-week RB1. Pittsburgh offers a tough test, though, in Week 16. Since Week 10, Pittsburgh has been fourth in rushing success rate, sixth in rushing yards per game, seventh in EPA per rush, and ninth in explosive run rate allowed.

Najee Harris: Since Week 10, Harris has been running mad, ranking 29th in yards after contact per attempt, second in missed tackles forced, and eighth in PFF’s elusive rating. In this period, he’s averaged 18.5 touches and 79.3 total yards as the RB17 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 10, Las Vegas has been 20th in rushing success rate, 16th in EPA per rush, and 18th in rushing yards per game. They have been destroyed by receiving backs all season, giving up the most receptions per game, most receiving yards per game, and fourth-highest yards per reception to backs. Harris is a borderline RB1.

Jaylen Warren: In his last six games played, he’s managed at least 29% of snaps played four times. In those weeks, he’s averaged 9.5 touches and 57 total yards with RB28, RB23, RB20, and RB26 finishes. Warren is 17th in yards after contact per attempt and second in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 50 carries). In this plus matchup, with the offense shifting to a run-first approach, Warren is a solid flex/RB3.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams: Adams is the WR6 in fantasy points per game with a 33% target share (second-best) and 39.9% air-yard share (third-best). He is second in deep targets and sixth in red zone targets among wide receivers. Adams has shown no fall-off this year, ranking tenth in yards per route run and sixth in open rate (tied with Justin Jefferson). Adams is a WR1 that will run about 76% of his routes against Levi Wallace (57.6% catch rate, 84.4 passer rating) and Cameron Sutton (51.7% catch rate, 73.5 passer rating).

Mack Hollins: Hollins is a WR4/5. He’s the WR48 in fantasy points per game with an 18.4% target share and 25.1% air-yard share. He ranks 21st in deep targets but 42nd in red zone targets among wide receivers. With Renfrow and Waller back, Hollins will get squeezed for targets.

Hunter Renfrow: In his first game action since Week 9, Renfrow played only 43% of snaps with a 9.4% target share and 58.5% route run rate. Against a pass defense that, since Week 8, has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to slot receivers, Renfrow isn’t worth playing this week.

Diontae Johnson: Johnson was limited in practice on Tuesday (toe) before logging DNPs on Wednesday and Thursday, which earned him a questionable tag. Johnson is the WR40 in fantasy with the arguable distinction as the most inefficient wide receiver in fantasy this season. He is 12th in target share, 20th in air yard share, 12th in deep targets, and ninth in red zone targets this season, yet he’s 65th in fantasy points per route run and 100th in fantasy points per target. Johnson is the WR18 in expected fantasy points. He will run about 77% of his routes against Robertson and Hobbs as a WR4.

George Pickens: In Weeks 7-13, with Pickett under center full-time, Pickens has a 13.9% target share, 12.5% end zone target share, and 1.09 yards per route run. In those six games, he was a WR3 or higher three times while also finishing outside the top 50 fantasy wideouts three times. While Pickens ranks sixth among wide receivers in deep targets, he has only one red zone target in his last four games, with Pickett tossing him passes. Pickens will run about 82% of his routes against Amik Robertson (54.3% catch rate, 99.1 passer rating) and Nate Hobbs (69.4% catch rate, 94.2 passer rating). The Raiders’ issues with guarding against the deep ball offer Pickens some hope this week. Las Vegas has allowed the fourth-highest deep completion rate and eighth-most deep passing yards this season. Pickens is a WR3/4.

Tight Ends

Darren Waller: Last week, Waller saw a 9.4% target share (three targets) while managing 48 receiving yards, a score, 1.78 yards per route run, and a 65.9% route run rate. Waller was the TE8 for the week. This season he has a 13.3% target share, 72.2% route participation, and the tenth-most deep targets among tight ends, which is impressive considering he’s only been active for six games. Waller is a low-end TE1. Since Week 8, Pittsburgh is 23rd in catch rate and 24th in receiving yards per game allowed to tight ends.

Pat Freiermuth: While Freiermuth has been logging full practices while he plays through a foot issue, his snap counts and usage offer a clearer barometer of his health. Over his last three games, he has played more than 56% of the snaps with a 54% route run rate. In Week 15, he failed to draw a target which is the first time that’s happened all season. Since Week 13, he has averaged 3.7 targets and 36.3 receiving yards per game. Freiermuth’s matchup is fantastic this week, but it’s difficult to consider him as anything more than a matchup-based streamer or high-end TE2. Since Week 8, Las Vegas has been 25th in catch rate and 20th in receiving yards per game allowed to tight ends.

BUF vs. CHI | NO vs. CLE | HOU vs. TEN | SEA vs. KC | NYG vs. MIN | CIN vs. NE | DET vs. CAR | ATL vs. BAL | WAS vs. SF | PHI vs. DAL | LV vs. PIT | GB vs. MIA | DEN vs. LAR | TB vs. ARI | LAC vs. IND