The NFL playoffs began with an entertaining Super Wild Card weekend that included several upsets and a few blowouts. The NFL Divisional Round will finally let us watch the one seeds play high-stakes football, as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Philadelphia Eagles will face the New York Giants for the third time this season. Patrick Mahomes (QB – Chiefs) is a shoe-in to win his second MVP trophy but he’s going to be locked in against a bad Jacksonville pass defense, while Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is going to face his former student, Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson to kick things off on Saturday afternoon. It’s shocking to even see the Jaguars with a winning pedigree, especially since last year was a disaster and the start to Pederson’s tenure in Jacksonville got off to a sluggish start. Trevor Lawrence (QB – Jaguars) erased a 27-0 deficit that included four interceptions in the first half, mounting an epic comeback against the Chargers to earn a second trip to Arrowhead.
DFS contests become a bit tougher to navigate with fewer teams and players available in the Divisional Round. However, the flip side to this is the reduced salaries of quality players since DraftKings and FanDuel cannot up-charge every single player within an offense when there are only eight teams. We’re getting the two best matchups on Sunday, starting with Joe Burrow (QB – Bengals) on the road against Josh Allen (QB – Bills), which we only saw for half a quarter before Damar Hamlin’s (S – Bills) scary injury in Week 17. The Bengals are +5.5 due to a porous, injured offensive line but Allen and the Bills have logged three offensive turnovers in each of their past three games, which will be important to avoid against Cincinnati’s underrated secondary. Finally, we’ll get a classic NFC matchup between Dallas and San Francisco in Santa Clara, California on Sunday evening. Rookie quarterback Brock Purdy (QB – 49ers) has outperformed expectations but the defenses and situations that he’s faced have been mediocre at best. How will he respond against Micah Parsons (LB – Cowboys) and Trevon Diggs (CB – Cowboys)? Will we continue to see the best version of Dak Prescott (QB – Cowboys) after he dazzled on the road against a stout Tampa Bay defense that couldn’t contain the Cowboys’ passing attack? There are a lot of questions and narratives entering these four Divisional Round games that will be fun to watch throughout the weekend.
The NFL playoffs began with an entertaining Super Wild Card weekend that included several upsets and a few blowouts. The NFL Divisional Round will finally let us watch the one seeds play high-stakes football, as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Philadelphia Eagles will face the New York Giants for the third time this season. Patrick Mahomes (QB – Chiefs) is a shoe-in to win his second MVP trophy but he’s going to be locked in against a bad Jacksonville pass defense, while Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is going to face his former student, Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson to kick things off on Saturday afternoon. It’s shocking to even see the Jaguars with a winning pedigree, especially since last year was a disaster and the start to Pederson’s tenure in Jacksonville got off to a sluggish start. Trevor Lawrence (QB – Jaguars) erased a 27-0 deficit that included four interceptions in the first half, mounting an epic comeback against the Chargers to earn a second trip to Arrowhead.
DFS contests become a bit tougher to navigate with fewer teams and players available in the Divisional Round. However, the flip side to this is the reduced salaries of quality players since DraftKings and FanDuel cannot up-charge every single player within an offense when there are only eight teams. We’re getting the two best matchups on Sunday, starting with Joe Burrow (QB – Bengals) on the road against Josh Allen (QB – Bills), which we only saw for half a quarter before Damar Hamlin’s (S – Bills) scary injury in Week 17. The Bengals are +5.5 due to a porous, injured offensive line but Allen and the Bills have logged three offensive turnovers in each of their past three games, which will be important to avoid against Cincinnati’s underrated secondary. Finally, we’ll get a classic NFC matchup between Dallas and San Francisco in Santa Clara, California on Sunday evening. Rookie quarterback Brock Purdy (QB – 49ers) has outperformed expectations but the defenses and situations that he’s faced have been mediocre at best. How will he respond against Micah Parsons (LB – Cowboys) and Trevon Diggs (CB – Cowboys)? Will we continue to see the best version of Dak Prescott (QB – Cowboys) after he dazzled on the road against a stout Tampa Bay defense that couldn’t contain the Cowboys’ passing attack? There are a lot of questions and narratives entering these four Divisional Round games that will be fun to watch throughout the weekend.
My Wild Card recommendations had some smash hits and a few duds, evening out the production in DFS lineups. Prescott was QB1 on DraftKings with 39.6 DK points, while Josh Allen was QB4 due to the three turnovers that he committed to keep Miami competitive throughout the game. Christian McCaffery (RB – 49ers) and Austin Ekeler (RB – Chargers) both finished inside of the top-five at the running back position, while Deebo Samuel (WR – 49ers) and Ja’Marr Chase (WR – Bengals) both cracked the top-five for wideouts. Justin Jefferson (WR – Vikings) was blanketed by Adoree’ Jackson (CB – Giants) and the Giants’ healthy defense under DC Wink Martindale, while Dalton Schultz (TE – Cowboys) exploded with 28.5 DK points with a two-touchdown thrashing against the Buccaneers. George Kittle (TE – 49ers) saw his touchdown streak end, while both 49ers and Bills D/ST were unable to finish inside of the top-three.
Let’s get right into the best prospects to target when constructing DFS lineups ahead of the first Divisional Round game between Jacksonville and Kansas City on Saturday afternoon.
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
DraftKings maximum salary is set at $50,000
Patrick Mahomes (QB – Chiefs): $8,000
The first time Patrick Mahomes faced Jacksonville’s defense in Week 10, he threw three first half touchdowns and totaled four of them in a 27-17 win over the Jaguars. He finished with 35.14 DK points and has had a week to rest and prepare for this game against a bottom-five pass defense. Pay up to acquire the chalk and invest in the future two-time NFL MVP.
Honorable Mention: Daniel Jones (QB – Giants) ($5,800) showcased his growth as a dual-threat quarterback under first-year head coach Brian Daboll in the Wild Card round. Jones completed 68 percent of his pass attempts and racked up 30.8 DK points thanks to an additional 17 carries for 78 yards against a bad Minnesota run defense. Philadelphia is undoubtedly a tougher matchup but Jones’ familiarity against a division rival, paired with Daboll’s brilliant coaching, makes Jones a solid investment in DFS at a fraction of the salary other high-profile quarterbacks are assigned.
FanDuel
FanDuel maximum salary is set at $60,000
Jalen Hurts (QB – Eagles): $9,000
Jalen Hurts played a very conservative game against the New York Giants in Week 18 to preserve his health and keep the Giants’ defense in the dark about their play-calling tendencies. Don’t expect another vanilla outing for Hurts, who was the MVP frontrunner ahead of Mahomes until his sprained shoulder injury against Chicago in Week 15. Hurts delivered a 30 point outing on FanDuel in the first matchup against New York back in Week 14, so pay up to land a highly productive quarterback in FanDuel lineups.
Honorable Mention: Dak Prescott (QB – Cowboys) ($7,500) silenced critics with a phenomenal game against Tampa Bay in the NFC Wild Card round. He’ll stay on the road and face a 49ers defense that is tough up front but vulnerable in its secondary, allowing at least 20 points and 228 or more passing yards in three of its past four games played. Prescott’s confidence and momentum are a factor here, so plug him into lineups at a decent value on FanDuel.
Running Backs
DraftKings
Jerick McKinnon (RB – Chiefs): $6,000
The hyper-efficiency of Jerick McKinnon could take a slight hit with the return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – Chiefs) from an ankle injury, but I doubt it. The veteran running back has carved out a permanent role as a de facto receiver in Kansas City’s pass-centric offense, while he also handles a lot of high-value touches in the red zone. McKinnon is no stranger to breaking a big play and taking it to the house, so at $6,000 on DraftKings, he’s a high-caliber player and a priority to get into lineups.
Honorable Mention: Miles Sanders (RB – Eagles) ($5,700) absolutely destroyed New York’s bottom-five run defense in their first meeting back in Week 14. The fourth-year running back handled 17 carries and turned them into 144 yards and two touchdowns, so he has a massive ceiling intact ahead of the third matchup against the Giants on Saturday night. Plus, he’s cheap at $5.7K on DraftKings, so there’s little downside with this investment.
FanDuel
Tony Pollard (RB – Cowboys): $7,100
We haven’t seen Dallas’ offense operate against San Francisco’s run defense yet this season but it’s going to be a tough matchup. Expect Dak Prescott to frequently find fourth-year running back Tony Pollard in the flat or running curl routes out of the backfield, providing a nice safety valve check down against a front-heavy 49ers defense. Pollard is an explosive playmaker and relies on his speed, physicality, and hands to be an asset within the Cowboys’ offense, so landing him at $7.1K on FanDuel is priced just right. Add him into lineups with confidence.
Honorable Mention: Elijah Mitchell (RB – 49ers) ($5,400) is the cheaper version of Christian McCaffery and while he may not see double-digit touches like his counterpart, Mitchell is fresh since returning from injury and caught a pass in the red zone, turning it into a touchdown against Seattle in the Wild Card round. The hard-nosed second-year running back is flying under the radar, so take advantage and plug him into lineups, as we’re banking on a touchdown to reach his ceiling.
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Ja’Marr Chase (WR – Bengals): $7,800
The unquestioned alpha in a talented Cincinnati offense is second-year wideout Ja’Marr Chase. He dealt with a hip injury that sidelined him for a few games but he’s back to being the dominant wideout that we saw during the Bengals’ playoff run in 2021. He caught nine of 12 targets for 84 yards and scored the first touchdown of the game against Baltimore in the Wild Card Round, so Chase is a blue-chip prospect worth tailing ahead of the highly anticipated matchup against Buffalo on Sunday afternoon.
Honorable Mention: Brandon Aiyuk (WR – 49ers) ($5,000) has the ability to turn low-volume into solid production. The 49ers’ WR2 caught three of five targets for 73 yards against Seattle, who has a solid pass defense, and now he’ll face Dallas, who is missing a couple of starters in its secondary from earlier in the season. Aiyuk is cheap and a high-value play on DraftKings at $5,000.
FanDuel
CeeDee Lamb (WR – Cowboys): $7,800
After a sluggish start to the season, CeeDee Lamb quickly ascended into a bonafide WR1 despite playing in a relatively run-centric offense. Prescott didn’t feed him a ton of volume against Tampa Bay but he caught a late touchdown to inflate Dallas’ lead to make it insurmountable for Tampa Bay to mount a comeback. Lamb is facing the 49ers’ bottom-12 pass defense that is missing both of its starting cornerbacks. Expect a few big plays from Lamb, who will return enough value to be worth the $7.8K salary on FanDuel.
Honorable Mention: Christian Kirk (WR – Jaguars) ($7,600) had a career-year with Trevor Lawrence as the WR1 in Jacksonville. He’s in a plus-matchup against a Kansas City pass defense surrendering over 220 yards per game on average this season. The first time he faced the Chiefs back in Week 10, Kirk caught nine of 12 targets for 105 yards and two touchdowns, finishing with 27 points on FanDuel. Lock him in as a solid value despite the elevated salary.
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Dallas Goedert (TE – Eagles): $4,500
Dallas Goedert only played 12 games this season due to injury but he is back and remains a focal point of the Eagles’ passing attack. Goedert saw 13 targets in the last two weeks of the regular season and is facing a Giants’ defense that allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Hammer Goedert against an improved, healthier New York defense that will force Hurts to look for his safety valve in the middle of the field.
Honorable Mention: Evan Engram (TE – Jaguars) ($4,300) has been on fire for most of the second half of the season in Jacksonville. He’s revived his career under Doug Pederson and handled 11 targets, turning them into seven catches for 93 yards and a touchdown against Los Angeles last weekend. Don’t overthink this one and plug Engram in with confidence against a vulnerable Chiefs secondary.
FanDuel
Travis Kelce (TE – Chiefs): $8,000
Travis Kelce put up monster numbers in the regular season despite being a 33-year-old veteran. The sure-handed tight end is the star in Kansas City’s offense and has great rapport with Mahomes. Kelce turned seven targets into 6-81-1 against Jacksonville the first time these two teams played in Week 10 and he’s off of a week’s rest, so pay up to acquire the high ceiling that he provides on FanDuel.
Honorable Mention: Dawson Knox (TE – Bills) ($5,800) has become a much more reliable weapon for Buffalo and Josh Allen’s rocket arm can make most throws to his top tight end despite tight coverage. Knox caught a one-handed reception in the end zone against Miami in the Wild Card Round and could wind up handling much more volume due to Cincinnati’s tight coverage within its talented secondary. Knox is a lot cheaper than Kelce, so it will allow you to save a few bucks without sacrificing a floor.
Defense/Special Teams
DraftKings
Eagles D/ST: $3,200
The Eagles have a top-five secondary and logged the most sacks (70) of any team in the regular season. Playmakers at every level and familiarity with the Giants make them a smash play in DraftKings lineups at just $3.2K.
Honorable Mention: Bengals D/ST ($2,400) was the sole reason for Cincinnati’s win in the Wild Card Round, forcing a fumble at the goal-line and returning it 98 yards the other direction for a pivotal touchdown to put them up by one possession, while also stealing momentum. Vonn Bell (S – Bengals) and Jessie Bates III (S – Bengals) are two of the best safeties in the game right now and DC Lou Anarumo has the Bengals’ defense playing a special brand of football at the perfect time in the season. Huge value play.
FanDuel
Dallas Cowboys D/ST: $3,900
The Cowboys are facing a 49ers offense that is buzzing and firing on all cylinders. San Francisco has scored over 33 points in six of its previous seven games played, but rookie quarterback Brock Purdy will have to deal with the hard-hitting defense that Dallas rosters up front and an opportunistic secondary. If Christian McCaffery can get stuffed at the line of scrimmage, which is a tall task, then the Cowboys can tee off on Purdy in obvious passing situations and force him into bad decisions, which we’ve rarely seen. The inexperience and lack of adversity Purdy’s faced will be the difference-maker in this matchup.
Honorable Mention: Chiefs D/ST ($4,200) is a risky play considering their vulnerability in the secondary but Chris Jones (DT – Chiefs), Nick Bolton (LB – Chiefs), and Frank Clark (DE – Chiefs) will disrupt Jacksonville’s pass-centric offense and stuff Travis Etienne (RB – Jaguars) in the run game. They are good at forcing turnovers, which will be huge from a production standpoint in FanDuel lineups, so fire up the Chiefs D/ST.
