2023 NFL Combine Risers & Fallers (Wide Receivers)

This ‘Risers & Fallers’ series from the NFL Combine has already covered EDGEs and DBs, and now we’re wrapping it up with WRs. The general vibe around this class of wideouts is that it’s one of the weaker groups at the position in years, and Saturday’s Combine results didn’t sway that narrative for the most part. However, there is much more clarity atop the WR rankings now that NFL Draft evaluators have metrics to sort it all out.

2023 NFL Combine Risers & Fallers (Wide Receivers)

Arrow Up: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State)

Of the dozens and dozens of prospects in attendance at the NFL Combine, it’s possible that nobody had a better workout than Jazon Smith-Njigba, and he didn’t even run the 40-yard dash. JSN’s size turned out as expected, and he looked as good catching balls on the Indy turf as he did at Ohio State.

However, his measured athleticism caught just about everybody off guard. Onlookers wondered if JSN could post good enough metrics to hang in the round one conversation. Then he went out and not only posted good enough metrics – he posted excellent metrics. His time of 6.57 seconds in the 3-Cone is by far the best in this class, and it’s the best by a WR at the Combine since 2018. Any time of sub-4.00 seconds in the 20-Yard Shuttle drill is elite, and JSN smoked that threshold with a time of 3.93 seconds. That’s the best time in that drill by a WR since 2014.

Here is the list of WRs since 2012 who weighed at least 195 pounds with a 20-Yard Shuttle time less than 3.95 seconds: Odell Beckham Jr. and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. End of list. JSN is a lock for Round 1 now. Case closed. The 40-time is irrelevant, and I’d closely monitor his odds of eventually being the first WR off the board.

Arrow Up: Quentin Johnston (TCU)

This one is easy. On a day where so many of the other top WRs in this class showed up light and without length, Quentin Johnston measured at 6’2”, 208 pounds. Even if that’s a bit smaller than expected for Johnston; it’s plenty big, especially in comparison to his peers at the position. He also has 33⅝” arms, placing him in the 91st percentile. I previously wrote about the importance of arm length in college-to-NFL translation for rookie receivers.

Johnston only participated in the jumping drills at the Combine, and he nearly jumped out of Lucas Oil Stadium. His broad jump of 134” is 97th percentile going back to 1999 at the WR position, and his vertical jump of 40.5” is 93rd percentile. For a player whose game figures to be heavily predicated in YAC at the next level, that’s the type of explosiveness that you want to see. Johnston should feel secure with his Round 1 status.

Arrow Down: Jordan Addison (USC)

If Smith-Njigba had the best Combine independent of position, it’s fair to opine the opposite about Jordan Addison. It was not a good day for the 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner, who transferred to USC following his dominant season at Pitt. Before Addison even laced up his cleats, his hands were measured at 8¾” (9th percentile), and he weighed in at just 173 pounds. That is very small, and DeVonta Smith’s NFL success shouldn’t alleviate concerns about playing in the league at that weight. Besides Smith, only three WRs beneath 175 pounds have posted a 1,000-yard season this century: DeSean Jackson (5x), Darnell Mooney and Steve Breaston.

Jackson obviously had a tremendous career, though he also ran the 40-yard dash in 4.35 seconds. Addison ran his 40 in 4.49 seconds, 21st out of the 43 wideouts who ran the drill at the Combine this year. Addison’s vertical and broad jumps were among the 10 lowest distances at the position among Combine participants. There are reports that Addison is dealing with a back strain, and it’s possible that he just had a bad day with measurements that stand to improve at USC’s Pro Day. But his stock has certainly taken a tumble, and the betting markets on ‘First Wide Receiver Drafted’ can corroborate that. NFL Draft insiders were placing Addison as high as No. 12 to the Texans in mock drafts only a matter of days ago, but you can forget about that now.

Addison has spoken on the possibility of reuniting with Kenny Pickett, his QB at Pitt, though that probably has a better chance of happening with the Steelers’ No. 32 pick before the No. 17 pick now. He really might go in Round 2.

Arrow Down: Jalin Hyatt (Tennessee)

Short and sweet: We wondered if Jalin Hyatt would run the 40-Yard dash in the range of the 4.2’s. He ended up running at 4.40 seconds. That’s an excellent time, and Hyatt actually tested really well otherwise. However, his game is too one-dimensional at the moment for teams to realistically allocate a Round 1 pick towards Hyatt without a legendary 40 time in his back pocket.

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