When it comes to “safe” players in fantasy baseball, the goal is not necessarily to target upside potential but rather to raise the floor of production for a given player as high as possible. Each of the following veterans, based on extensive track records, provides a solid baseline of expected stats without much risk at their current draft cost. A pick in the first few rounds will not be necessary to acquire their services based on current ADP trends.
- Fitz’s Positional Primers
- Justin Mason’s Draft Day Cheat Sheet
- Players the Experts Draft
- Latest Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft
Fantasy Draft Targets: Safe Veterans
Hitters
Willson Contreras (C – STL): ADP 106.2
There will be a theme with the hitters in this article: lacking batting averages with good power and solid counting stats. Contreras fits the bill and should even see an uptick over his recent RBI and runs totals after moving from the Cubs to the Cardinals in the offseason. The two-time All-Star has hit between 21 and 24 homers in four different seasons since 2017, posting a .804 OPS overall in that span and a .815 mark in 2022.
C.J. Cron (1B – COL): ADP 123.2
Cron is entering a contract year after thriving in the middle of the Rockies’ batting order the last two seasons. He did see a drop in ratios in 2022 back to career norms, going from a .281/.375/.530 slash line to .257/.315/.468. Still, the first-time All-Star belted 29 HR with 102 RBI. Excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Cron has finished between 25 and 30 homers every year since 2018.
Eugenio Suarez (3B – SEA): ADP 147.0
Suarez should have seen a dip in home runs going from Cincy to Seattle last year, right? Wrong! The veteran slugger hit 31 for the Reds in 2021. He followed that up with 31 for the Mariners in 2022. Suarez still strikes out a ton, and even though he managed to raise his AVG by nearly 40 points last year over the previous season, he still finished at .236. Batting average is not what we’re searching for here. A mid-rounder to bolster HR and RBI is.
Hunter Renfroe (OF – LAA): ADP 146,6
Renfroe is now wearing his fifth different uniform in as many years. All the off-season moves have not been the result of poor performance. He slugged .492 with 29 deep drives across 125 games for the Brewers last year, giving him at least 26 HR every year since 2017 (not including 2020). Renfroe recorded the two highest OPS marks of his career in 2021 and 2022, turning in .816 and .807, respectively. Lining up behind hitters like Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani could spike Renfroe’s RBI total.
Pitchers
Zack Wheeler (SP – PHI): ADP 52.0
Wheeler tends to be viewed as an injury risk by many. That seems to stem from the significant time he missed in the early years of his career. He did miss a month from late August to late September last year, but that is his only notable absence of the past five years. He came back to finish the regular strong before firing another 35 2/3 innings in the playoffs.
Wheeler has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in each of the last three seasons in Philadelphia. Alongside that, he has recorded an excellent 1.05 WHIP, 7.4 H/9, and 26.5 K% across 69 starts. Wheeler is far safer than many of the starting pitchers regularly going ahead of him in drafts. He may even be flat-out better.
Kevin Gausman (SP – TOR): ADP 63.4
Just a few years ago, Gausman would have been thought of as anything but safe. That’s all in the past now, as the 32-year-old righty has developed into a legit front-line starter over the last few seasons. He earned his first All-Star nod with the Giants in 2021, as he turned in career-best stats pretty much across the board.
After inking a big free-agent deal with the Blue Jays in December 2021, Gausman delivered another strong campaign, helping lead the club to 92 wins and an A.L. Wild Card spot. In 2022, he worked to a 3.35 ERA and 1.24 WHIP while eclipsing the 200-strikeout threshold for the second straight season. It’s worth pointing out that Gausman recorded the third-lowest xFIP of any qualifying pitcher in the bigs last year.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and a 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.
