The Cardinals have had a disappointing start to the 2023 season. Thankfully, they can exorcise some demons at Coors Field tonight in a good matchup. St. Louis’s offense is well-represented for tonight’s top Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em selections. Finally, a workhorse ace also has a desirable choice.

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Tuesday’s Top Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick ‘Em Picks

Paul Goldschmidt: 10.5 Fantasy Points – Higher

Goldschmidt terrorizes lefties. According to FanGraphs, he’s had a .466 OBP, .340 ISO and 225 wRC+ in a hearty sample of 284 plate appearances against lefties since 2021. The reigning National League MVP will also benefit from the hitting conditions and matchup tonight.

First, Coors Field enhances singles (1.169), doubles (1.395), triples (1.535) and homers (1.301) for right-handed hitters. Second, Coors Field has the highest park factor for runs (1.367). Third, Kyle Freeland is a pitch-to-contact hurler who’s struggled at home. The lefty’s 20.0 CSW% in two starts this year is a recipe for disaster. In addition, right-handed batters have ripped him for a .489 slugging and .352 wOBA at Coors Field in his career. Finally, according to Betting Pros, the Cardinals are -180, and the game’s total is 12.0 runs. As a result, Goldy’s fantasy scoring outlook is bright in the heart of St. Louis’s order.

Nolan Arenado: 2.0 Total Bases – Higher

Arenado is a lefty-killer who rakes at his former stomping grounds. He’s had a .606 slugging and .333 ISO against lefties since 2021. He’s also walked at a modest 7.8% clip. Thus, Arenado does damage by swinging the bat instead of taking free passes against southpaws.

And, again, he mashed with the platoon advantage at Coors Field when he was on the Rockies. In 625 plate appearances at Coors Field when he was on the Rockies, he had a .725 slugging and .361 ISO. Therefore, Arenado can torch Freeland tonight.

Willson Contreras: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher

Contreras is another lefty masher in the heart of St. Louis’s order. He’s muscled up for a .526 slugging and .272 ISO against lefties since 2021. Expanding upon Freeland’s pitch-to-contact approach, the lefty has had the lowest swinging-strike rate (3.8 SwStr%) among qualified pitchers this season. He’s also had only 6.56 K/9 and a 16.7 K% against right-handed batters at home in his career. Freeland’s approach is unlikely to cut it against Contreras.

Tyler O’Neill: 1.5 Totals Bases – Higher

O’Neill is St. Louis’s fourth hitter featured in this piece. He fits the same mold as the other three. O’Neill kills lefties. In 196 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, O’Neill has had a .521 slugging and .257 ISO. Like Goldy, Arenado and Contreras, O’Neill will benefit from facing Freeland and the park factors at Coors Field.

Yet, the good news for St. Louis’s featured hitters in this piece doesn’t end there. Colorado’s bullpen is a disaster. The Rockies’ relievers have been destroyed for a 5.31 ERA, a .272 batting average and coughed up the ninth-highest hard-hit rate (32.8 Hard%) this season. So, don’t fret when Freeland is removed from the game. There’s still a path for Goldy, Arenado, Contreras and O’Neill to go over their Underdog Fantasy lines.

In addition, there’s a correlation aspect to using them together. They should all eat if Freeland isn’t sharp and can face low-leverage mop-up relievers if they chase him early. Finally, I didn’t include Freeland’s under for 3.5 strikeouts as a featured play, but I discussed it elsewhere. I would mix it into my Underdog Fantasy portfolio tonight with St. Louis’s hitters’ overs. So, consider Freeland’s under a bonus selection.

Shohei Ohtani: 97.5 Pitches – Higher

Ohtani is a workhorse, and the Angels have treated him as such since easing him in early in 2022. According to ESPN, Ohtani had fewer than 97.5 pitches in eight of his first nine starts last year. However, Ohtani’s thrown more than 97.5 pitches in 13 of his next 20 starts, including throwing 111 pitches in his second start of this season. The stud righty is entirely stretched out, and the Angels shouldn’t have any reservations about cutting him loose tonight.

Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.