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Fantasy Football Best Ball Draft ADP Analysis: Risers & Fallers (2024)

Fantasy Football Best Ball Draft ADP Analysis: Risers & Fallers (2024)

The best ball season is in full swing, and the average draft positions (ADPs) at Underdog Fantasy are everchanging. This piece presents risers and fallers in ADP at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end between February 20 and March 20.

Best Ball Risers and Fallers From February to March

Quarterbacks

Anthony Richardson's, Jordan Love's and Brock Purdy's ADPs have fallen, but they've climbed relative to their peers at quarterback. Quarterbacks are generally falling, with the top options sliding in ADP by roughly three to five picks. Kirk Cousins will have new weapons to throw to in Atlanta, and gamers are intrigued by his upside. Meanwhile, Will Levis now has Calvin Ridley at his disposal to stretch the field. Caleb Williams is projected to go first overall to the Bears in the NFL Draft, and they traded for Keenan Allen, bolstering their wide receiving corps. Finally, Russell Wilson and Gardner Minshew have landed with teams they're projected to start for.

Justin Fields is freefalling. He was traded to the Steelers for minimal compensation and will back up Wilson, at least to begin the season. Justin Herbert is also dropping after the Chargers cut Mike Williams and traded Allen, leaving the wide receiver corps bereft of talent. Finally, Daniel Jones's job could be in jeopardy after Seattle's general manager, John Schneider, indicated Drew Lock was swayed to sign with the Giants by the potential to compete with Jones for the starting job.

Running Backs

The stars are aligning for Bijan Robinson's sophomore surge, starting with a coaching change and installing Cousins as Atlanta's starting quarterback. Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry were all massive winners in free agency, landing in favorable spots.

Zack Moss and Gus Edwards also landed in stellar homes, and Joe Mixon lucked out after the Bengals shipped him off to the Texans. D'Andre Swift's landing spot isn't as clearly ideal, but gamers are treating him as the unquestioned featured back for the Bears. Jacobs's departure to the Packers paves the way for Zamir White to headline Las Vegas's backfield for now, but the Raiders could foil White's bell-cow potential by adding a running back in the NFL Draft. White's ADP is reasonable, but he's not a risk-free choice.

Rookies are zooming up draft boards. Running backs Jonathon Brooks, Blake Corum, Trey Benson, MarShawn Lloyd and Jaylen Wright are risers, and Wright was a no-brainer helium man. In fact, I called it in early February.

While taking a victory lap is fun, there's an instructive point to it. Gamers will chase NFL Draft Combine standouts, and Bruce Feldman highlights freak athletes annually for The Athletic. Knowing who projects to test well is like having a crystal ball that tells the future for which prospects will see their ADPs rise.

Isiah Pacheco had the most significant fall among running backs selected in the top 60 picks. Travis Etienne is the only running back from that sample who's an unappealing pick at their ADP. Any hope for Tyjae Spears being a workhorse to open the year was dashed when the Titans signed Tony Pollard. Still, Spears could have a sizable role with the juice to help best ball teams even in a change-of-pace role, with the bonus of premium handcuff value. Bucky Irving and Audric Estime had underwhelming 40-yard dash times at the NFL Draft Combine, and gamers have reacted accordingly.

2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Guide

Wide Receivers

Rookie fever is alive and well at wide receiver. Marvin Harrison, Rome Odunze, Brian Thomas, Adonai Mitchell, Ladd McConkey, Xavier Worthy, Roman Wilson, Xavier Legette, Malachi Corley, Ricky Pearsall, Jermaine Burton, Javon Baker and Jalen McMillan are all rookies on the risers table. The moral of the story is to scoop up well-regarded rookies early in the calendar for best ball drafts and enjoy closing-line value (the difference between the ADP when they're drafted and when the best ball contests fill) on them.

Drake London hasn't had NFL-caliber quarterback play or quality play-calling in his young career. Cousins and the new coaching staff should provide him with both, and gamers aren't sleeping on a third-year eruption. George Pickens is a stylistic fit with Wilson. Moreover, Diontae Johnson was traded to the Panthers, which can be a win for both.

Quentin Johnston had a horrendous rookie season, but gamers are moving him and Joshua Palmer up draft boards in the wake of Williams's and Allen's departures. Their new ADPs are steep in what will likely be a run-heavy offense and will probably slide when the Chargers undoubtedly add competition to the position, either in free agency, the NFL Draft or both.

The ascensions of Johnston and Palmer are nothing compared to Darnell Mooney's meteoric rise. Mooney is only an ancillary weapon, and his new ADP is irresponsible. In addition, gamers drafting in The Board will be behind the eight-ball if they draft him now since Mooney was so much cheaper for gamers drafting in that contest before the first wave of free agency.

Marquise Brown and Curtis Samuel are in potent new offenses. They've both justifiably climbed among wide receivers. Furthermore, their upward mobility might not have plateaued yet. Brown is an excellent stacking option with Patrick Mahomes or a desirable one-off. Samuel is an acceptable one-off but a more intriguing pick when paired with Josh Allen.

Justin Jefferson is downgrading at quarterback this season, whether Sam Darnold or a rookie starts for the Vikings. Nevertheless, gamers shouldn't overreact and drop him much further. The uninspiring combination of Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens piled up passing yards in Kevin O'Connell's offense, and Darnold or a rookie could match that duo's level of play.

Rashee Rice will face target competition from Brown. Yet, Brown's explosiveness could open up ample catch-and-run chances for the second-year wideout, and any improvement to Kansas City's potent offense would enhance Rice's touchdown potential. It would be unwise to allow him to slide much more.

DJ Moore and Allen will cannibalize opportunities from each other in an offense almost certainly led by a rookie quarterback. As a result, they've both slid a smidge in the wide receiver rankings. Troy Franklin and Keon Coleman didn't test especially well at the NFL Draft combine, causing them to slip.

Treylon Burks was bumped down Tennessee's pass-catching hierarchy with the addition of Ridley. However, he could benefit from getting kicked into the slot for a higher percentage of his snaps. Burks's fall is entirely understandable. Yet, he's also a fine dart, especially when stacked with Levis.

2024 NFL Draft Guide

Tight Ends

 

The top five tight ends are the same as on February 20, but their ADPs each slid slightly. Kyle Pitts, like London, has gone screaming up draft boards because Atlanta added Cousins. Dalton Schultz is returning to the Texans. Being attached to a high-powered offense is optimal for his touchdown potential, but his price is a bit rich as an ancillary option behind target hogs Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Thus, Schultz isn't an appealing one-off, but he's a fine stacking option with C.J. Stroud.

Noah Fant is back in Seattle. Thankfully, Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson have taken their talents elsewhere, paving the way to a full-time gig for Fant. Parkinson is an interesting dart since Matthew Stafford had a resurgent season and Tyler Higbee should miss all or most of the season while recovering from reconstructive knee surgery.

Will there be enough scraps for Jonnu Smith in Miami's top-heavy passing attack? Gamers seem to think so, but I'm not as convinced. Smith's a useful stacking selection with Tua Tagovailoa but otherwise overpriced.

Pitts zoomed past George Kittle, Brock Bowers, and David Njoku, yet the trio's slide was minimal. Even with a reduced ADP, T.J. Hockenson is grossly overpriced. Darren Waller is considering retirement. He's an enticing but risky buy in three or four-TE lineup constructions at his reduced ADP. Waller's ADP will climb if he announces he's playing this season. Obviously, he won't provide any value and will be a dead roster spot if he retires.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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