Now that free agency has concluded and (most) top players have found a new home, it’s time to recalibrate our rankings. FantasyPros has you covered with expert consensus rankings (ECR) and average draft position (ADP) data. Sometimes, though, the experts’ rankings of players and where those players were drafted don’t jive. Below are a few such examples and what we should do with that information.
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Fantasy Football Rankings: Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) vs. ADP
Rachaad White (RB – TB)
Consensus ADP: RB12, 50 Overall; ECR: RB9, 25 Overall
Having survived free agency with Tampa Bay declining to bring in any serious competition, Rachaad White appears to head the depth chart once again. Tampa Bay re-signed backup Chase Edmonds to complement White again but that’s been the only movement in the Bucs’ running back room. And the draft doesn’t appear to have any challengers as it’s widely considered a weak class for running backs.
White keeping his job wasn’t a given after last season’s mixed results. Yes, he almost topped 1,000 rushing yards but it took 272 carries to get there for a mediocre 3.6 yards per attempt. He made up for it in the passing game with 70 targets, turning those into 64 receptions for 549 yards. In all, White did finish as a top-10 fantasy running back despite the lack of efficiency thanks to his usage in the passing game.
That appears to be the route White and the Bucs will go again if you consider what the experts think. The RB9 ranking is about where he finished last year. Meanwhile, the ADP data isn’t far off where White ranks among running backs. But there is a huge disparity where White is being drafted compared to expert rankings.
Our ECR has White at 25th overall, or the round two/three turn. That would mean White is, at worst, the third player on your roster behind an elite first-round selection and a good-to-great player at the end of the second round. Meanwhile, ADP data shows he’s being drafted two rounds later in the early fifth round. Presumably, a team drafting him here would have their receivers and top running back selected plus their quarterback and tight end.
Taking White in the third round would be a gamble since he could, seemingly, lose his job at any time to a more efficient runner. But even if you take his top-10 fantasy finish into account, remember that White was taken 60th last year, according to FantasyPros ADP.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
Consensus ADP: RB18, 70 Overall; ECR: RB15, 47 Overall
No running back is more valuable in the passing game than the Saints’ Alvin Kamara. He’s averaged 600 receiving yards per season throughout his seven-year career while averaging another 800 yards on the ground. Even last year when Kamara turned 28 and missed three games due to a suspension, he still totaled 1,160 yards and six touchdowns, finishing as a top-24 fantasy running back.
And while the running back rankings are similar between the drafters and experts (both value him as a mid-RB2), where they take him is very different. The experts are slotting Kamara at the end of the fourth round. Surely this would mean an RB2 on the fantasy team that drafted him or the top running back on a team with studs at receiver and another position.
Meanwhile, the drafters are taking Kamara two rounds later in the sixth. This would mean the rest of the starting lineup for the team that drafted Kamara is already filled out and just missing an RB2. He definitely won’t last that long when drafts start in a few months, so side with the experts on this one.
Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)
Consensus ADP: RB15, 64 Overall; ECR: RB13, 42 Overall
Josh Jacobs’ fantasy career has been a series of ebbs and flows. He ping-ponged between an RB1 and RB2 in his first four seasons, finishing 14th, eighth, 16th and first among running backs in fantasy scoring. That is until last season — his fifth — when his production and efficiency took a nose dive. He recorded career-lows in total yards (1,101), touchdowns (6) and fantasy scoring (RB25). Granted, he missed four games due to injury, but even in the games he played, he averaged a career-low 3.5 yards per carry. But his career and fantasy prospects caught a lifeline as Jacobs signed a (relatively) big-money deal with the Packers. The subsequent cutting of Aaron Jones by Green Bay means Jacobs is the unquestioned starter on an up-and-coming offense.
Regarding where Jacobs should be drafted, the experts and drafters agree he should be taken as a high-end RB2, much like most of his career. Last year aside, Jacobs’ floor — when healthy — is top-15 running back range. But where the experts and drafters split is where Jacobs should be taken. The experts are taking Jacobs 42nd overall or, in draft terms, in the middle of the fourth round.
It would mean the team that drafts him presumably took their top running back and one or two elite players at other positions. But the drafters are taking Jacobs nearly two rounds later in the early sixth. This would mean the team that drafted Jacobs has most of their starting lineup filled out before drafting him. In a perfect world, the latter would be preferred since there are several red flags when it comes to drafting Jacobs. Not only was last season disappointing but he just turned 26 years old.
It’s a risk to make an aging running back one of your top four picks, so avoid where you can.
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