When you’re on the clock in drafts, there are always players that jump off the page. These are ones that you will look to draft a ton. To be overweight across multiple leagues. Players that can be difference makers and help define the 2024 Fantasy Football landscape. Every player in this article has the talent and upside to do that. These are my top fantasy football draft targets this year.
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Fantasy Football Draft Picks: DBro’s Top Targets
Fantasy Football Draft Targets: Quarterbacks
While Jalen Hurts’ production dipped last year in many realms, he still finished as the QB2 in fantasy points per game with 21.9 points per game. The goal-line rushing really helped Hurts, as he had 15 rushing scores, ranking first in red zone carries. He was also first in carries and third in rushing yards among quarterbacks. Despite terrible play calling, Hurts still ranked tenth in CPOE, 13th in adjusted completion rate, and 10th-best in highly accurate throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). With Kellen Moore in town, we could see Hurts access another level in 2024. We have seen Hurts operate in a fast-paced offense, but we’ve never seen him in a scorched-pace offense that also leans pass-happy. Over the last two seasons, Philly ranked inside the top-12 teams in neutral rushing rate each year. Last year, Moore directed an offense that was second in neutral pace and eighth-best in neutral passing rate. If I’m paying up for a quarterback in drafts, it’s Hurts.
If you’re looking to shoot your shot on upside at the quarterback position in 2024, Richardson should be near the top of your draft board. What we saw in a small sample was amazing. In Richardson’s two full starts, he averaged 25.7 fantasy points per game, which, if you’re keeping score at home, is more than Josh Allen averaged last year (24.2). Richardson led all quarterbacks (minimum 80 dropbacks) in fantasy points per dropback.
Are his passing numbers worrisome? Sure. Are there some small silver linings that lead to hopeful thoughts? Yep. In his final two games, he managed at least 8.0 yards per attempt and at least a 7.1% big-time throw rate. Even if he takes a step forward as a passer, rushing will be the magic elixir that will carry Richardson in 2024. Last year, Richardson, even in the abbreviated sample, ranked fifth in rushing yards per game and third in red zone carries per game. Entering the second year in Shane Steichen’s system with Michael Pittman, Adonai Mitchell, and Josh Downs could be glorious.
I’m all in on Stroud for 2024. Last year, Stroud proved all the haters wrong quickly. I’m old enough to remember people slighting this person because of S2 scores. If you faded those scores and narratives around this talented, franchise-changing player, you were loving the entire 2023 season. Stroud balled out, ranking seventh in fantasy points per game. There was plenty to like about his deeper numbers surrounding his play as he ranked third in clean pocket passer rating, 11th in fantasy points per dropback, and had the sixth-lowest turnover rate.
With a solidified offensive line keeping him clean and the team bringing in Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs to help the scoring barrage, Stroud is primed for a special sophomore campaign that could vault him into the top 3-5 fantasy quarterbacks in 2024. Houston has done exactly what it should this offseason by taking advantage of his rookie contract and building a powerhouse around him.
Murray should reinsert himself into the high-end QB1 conversation this season. Last year, he immediately stepped back into top 12 fantasy production. He finished as the QB9 in fantasy points per game while struggling as a passer. Among 45 qualifying passers last season, he was 38th in CPOE, 35th in highly accurate throw rate, and had the ninth-highest off-target rate.
It wasn’t pretty, but for fantasy purposes, he smoothed over those rough edges with rushing ranking ninth in rushing yards per game, 10th in carries per game, and ninth in red zone carries per game. Murray has displayed serious arm talent in the NFL previously, so I’m expecting a bounce back with his passing. Last year, we saw his floor, which is still a QB1 in fantasy. In 2020, we saw what the ceiling looked like (QB3). Murray will be one of my most drafted players in 2024.
I was skeptical of Love entering last year. I was tough on him in the early going when he was struggling, but I will also say he proved me wrong. He ascended to the top of the quarterback mountain in short order after he took a massive step down the stretch. Love was the QB5 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in passing yards and second in passing touchdowns.
After Week 9, he caught fire. For the rest of the season among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, he was fourth in passer rating and CPOE and sixth in fantasy points per dropback. During that stretch, he was also sixth in clean pocket passer rating. Love is a wonderful value in drafts if you want to wait on quarterback some and still have access to top 3-5 upside at the position.
Daniels will be a top-12 fantasy quarterback this year. Yep, I said it. Lock it up. Toss away the key. If Daniels starts every game this season, his rushing equity alone will push him into QB1 territory. In his final season at LSU, Daniels rushed for 1,134, and now he’s paired with an offensive coordinator who is quite familiar with game planning with a mobile quarterback.
Kliff Kingsbury’s offense will feature play-action and deep passing, which are two of Daniels’ stand-out strengths. At the height of Kyler Murray‘s powers under Kliff Kingsbury (2021), he ranked fifth in deep ball rate and 11th in play-action dropback rate. In 2023, Daniels led all collegiate passers in deep passing grade and deep adjusted completion rate while also ranking fourth in play-action passing grade. Daniels is the best argument for waiting on a quarterback in your drafts.
I love Lawrence in fantasy football this season. All we need is health and regression to the mean, and Lawrence should take off. Last year, Lawrence battled a sprained MCL, ankle sprain, concussion, and bruised right shoulder. It’s fair to question if we saw a healthy version of Lawrence after Week 6. Despite all of this, Lawrence was the QB13 in fantasy points per game (QB7 in expected fantasy points per game) while ranking 14th in CPOE and seventh in highly accurate throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). This offseason, Jacksonville restocked Lawrence’s weapon cupboard despite losing Calvin Ridley to free agency. The Jags signed Gabriel Davis and drafted Brian Thomas Jr. to stretch the field and open up the middle of the field for Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. With these additions, we could see this offense pass aggressively. In Weeks 11-18, Jacksonville ranked seventh in neutral passing rate and 10th in red zone passing rate. The needle is pointing upward for Lawrence for 2024.
Fantasy Football Draft Targets: Running Backs
Arthur Smith is gone. It’s time to rejoice. Ring the bells. Bijan has been freed from the constraints of a bumbling offensive overthinker. Last year, he ranked ninth in snap share, third in targets, sixth in receptions, and fourth in receiving yards among running backs, but he finished as the RB17 in fantasy points per game. Robinson was the RB12 in expected fantasy points per game, but his opportunity share ranked 31st, and he was also 32nd in red zone touches with Smith’s insistence on utilizing Tyler Allgeier. If Robinson receives the bulk of the high-leverage touches under the new Falcons regime, he should crush in 2024. Last year, he ranked 23rd in explosive run rate, 17th in yards after contact per attempt, and 25th in yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Robinson is a locked-in RB1 for 2024.
Achane was part of the new wave of explosive young rushers to hit the scene last season. He finished as the RB5 in fantasy points per game. In the eight games he played at least 41% of the snaps, Achane averaged 14.2 touches and 113.8 total yards. Any fantasy gamer who falls in love with efficiency stats will love Achane. He was so damn good last year, ranking first in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). If he can overtake Raheem Mostert (and hold off Jaylen Wright) as the team’s primary goal-line rusher, Achane could finish as a top-three back in 2024.
Henry is one of a kind. A tackle-breaking mutant unicorn with the body of a rhino. Last year, at age 29, he ranked first in rushing attempts and second in rushing yards while showing little drop-off in his efficiency metrics. Last season, among 68 qualifying backs, Henry ranked ninth in explosive run rate and 11th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data).
While he will cross the dreaded age 30 threshold this year, it’s tough to project a drop-off for Henry and any reasons that he can’t continue to chug along as an RB1., especially when Henry has proven over the last two seasons that his pass game utility should increase despite his advancing age. Over the last two years, Henry has ranked 11th and 14th in TPRR and seventh and first in YPRR among backs. The big fellow isn’t slowing down. Continue to believe in the King in 2024 as the Ravens’ workhorse back.
Last year, Mixon was the RB11 last season, ranking eighth in snap share, third in opportunity share, and seventh in weighted opportunities. He was a whopping fifth in carries and 13th in targets, and Cincinnati worked in Chase Brown only sparingly. He has the opportunity to reprise that same workload in Houston.
With only Dameon Pierce, Dare Ogunbowale, Jawhar Jordan, and J.J. Taylor behind Mixon, he should be the unquestioned bellcow for the Texans in 2024. Last season, Mixon’s per-touch efficiency was horrendous. He was 36th in yards per touch, 35th in yards created per touch, and 41st in breakaway run rate. That didn’t stop him from being an RB1 last year, and it likely won’t this season.
I don’t really understand the hesitation in drafting White. If he doesn’t gobble up a metric ton of volume with Las Vegas, who in that backfield will? Alexander Mattison? Come on, seriously? Ameer Abdullah? Dylan Laube? Naw naw naw. This is White’s backfield, and he’s set to EAT! He proved capable of carrying the mail last year and should be the Raiders’ workhorse in 2024. In Weeks 15-18, he averaged 23.3 touches and 114.3 total yards as the RB12 in fantasy points per game. During this cup of coffee as the team’s starter, among 41 qualifying backs, he ranked 13th in explosive run rate, sixth in yards after contact per attempt and 17th in success rate. With Josh Jacobs heading to Cheesehead town, White should be a volume-driven RB2 with upside for more in 2024.
Brian Robinson has been disrespected this offseason. The arrival of Austin Ekeler and a rushing quarterback has everyone burying him in the ranks and poking holes in his 2024 outlook. Well, I’m not riding that train to Obivioin. Robinson is underrated on multiple levels, especially after what he put on film and paper last year. His 2023 overall stat lines don’t portray how good he was last season. Robinson was the RB14 in fantasy points per opportunity and the RB22 in fantasy points per game. He also stood out in efficiency categories, ranking 22nd in explosive run rate and 13th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data).
In the 12 games in which he played at least 40% of the snaps, Robinson averaged 15.5 touches and 77.9 total yards per game. He quietly displayed a three-down skillset last season, proving that he can play on passing downs, ranking fifth in yards per route run and 12th in PFF’s pass-blocking grade (minimum 20 targets and 50 pass-blocking snaps). Robinson will be the clear favorite for early-down and red zone work, and he should eat into Ekeler’s routes in the passing game. He’s a rock-solid RB2 that could outpace that ranking.
Fully expect me to be above consensus regarding McLaughlin. Last year, he was electric with every touch he earned. Among all running backs with at least 50 rushing attempts or 20 targets, McLaughlin ranked 14th in explosive run rate, fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt, fourth in yards after contact per attempt, and fourth in yards per route run. Denver made it a point to get him involved in the passing game when he was on the field, as he also ranked first in targets per route run. McLaughlin could easily earn more opportunities this season, and the passing down back in a Sean Payton offense is a role we should covet highly. Over the last nine seasons, Payton has coordinated an NFL offense; he has never finished lower than fourth in targets to the running back position. If McLaughlin keeps Sean Payton’s trust, he could be an RB3 that vaults into steady RB2 production (especially in PPR leagues).
Fantasy Football Draft Targets: Wide Receivers
Chase’s 2023 season was ruined by injury both with his quarterback (Joe Burrow) and his late-season shoulder sprain. In Weeks 1-4, while Burrow was looking like a shadow of his former self, Chase was still the WR23, drawing a 27.0% target share, a 34.6% air-yard share, and a 36.2% first-read share while producing 1.81 yards per route run (YPRR) and 0.102 first downs per route run (FD/RR).
In Weeks 5-10, when Burrow was back to dealing, Chase was the WR4 in fantasy, commanding a 28.4% target share, a 43.1% air-yard share, and a 34.5% first read share while churning out a whopping 2.69 YPRR and 0.145 FD/RR. Chase should be viewed as a consensus top-four wide receiver and a top-three pick in fantasy.
Despite dealing with injuries and bad quarterback play for part of the season, Jefferson finished as the WR5 in fantasy points per game. If you exclude Week 14, in which he played only 18% of the snaps, he was the WR4 in fantasy points per game. Even after Week 14, when he was suffering through the quarterback roulette wheel, Jefferson still churned out 22.1 fantasy points per game while drawing a 30.1% target share, manufacturing 3.03 YPRR, and blazing 0.134 FD/RR (ninth-best, per Fantasy Points Data). Jefferson is quarterback-proof, so it doesn’t matter to me whether Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy is under center this season. Jefferson has proven he can still be a top-five fantasy wideout with putrid passers. If Darnold and McCarthy outperform expectations, Jefferson could still have WR1 overall upside.
Brown has cemented his status as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL after he arrived in Philly with back-to-back WR8 finishes in fantasy points per game. The Eagles’ offense went off the rails last year with pitiful play calling, but with Kellen Moore in town that hopefully gets rectified. There’s no reason Brown can produce top-ten numbers at the wide receiver position again in 2024 with top-three status in his range of outcomes. Brown remains in the prime of his career after ranking eighth in yards per route run and seventh in first downs per route run last season (per Fantasy Points Data).
Everyone HURRY! Get it. Grab it. Got it? Good. Pop the tops on those Puka Juice 40s; it’s time to CHUG! Nacua had a rookie season for the ages, finishing as the WR6 in fantasy points per game. He set rookie records for receptions and receiving yards. Even after Cooper Kupp returned, he led the duo in target share (25.4%), air-yard share (32.7%), YPRR (2.61, and fantasy points per game (WR12). Nacua could access another level in his sophomore campaign if Matthew Stafford stays healthy and Kupp’s powers diminish just a tiny bit more. Nacua could finish as a top-three option at the position this season if everything breaks his way.
It’s time for London to fly. His upside this season is massive in what should be a revamped offensive approach with Kirk Cousins under center and Zac Robinson calling plays. Last year, London’s numbers were passable but not amazing, as quarterback play held him in check. The Falcons’ quarterbacks posted the fourth-lowest adjusted completion rate and the third-lowest catchable target rate.
London still posted 1.98 YPRR (32nd) while ranking 27th in FD/RR and top 25 in first read share (20th) and target share (25th). After reexamining his 2023 film, I do not doubt that the same player who posted monster numbers as a rookie is still here. London realizes his massive potential this year. Enjoy the breakout.
Metcalf is another rock-solid pick in fantasy who hasn’t finished outside the top 24 fantasy wideouts (WR22, WR24, WR20) in the last three years. Almost all of Metcalf’s deeper metrics lived in the WR2 territory as he was 22nd in YPRR, 23rd in first read share, and 20th in FD/RR last season. Seattle’s offense remains an enigma for 2024. Will they be run heavy at the behest of their defensive head coach? Will they grip it and rip it in the passing game under the direction of their offensive coordinator? It will be one of the fascinating things that we have to wait until the season to see play out. If Jaxon Smith-Njigba isn’t up to the task of taking over as Metcalf’s running mate with Tyler Lockett another year older, Metcalf could see a bump from his 20.7% target share last year (31st), which could vault him up the wide receiver leaderboard in 2024. Metcalf is a strong WR2 that still has some untapped upside. It’s possible he will revisit his 2020 production (WR10) this year.
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)
McLaurin is primed for a bounce-back season in 2024. Last year, Sam Howell and his putrid passing sunk McLaurin’s season. McLaurin still led the team with a 20.4% target share, a 34.7% air-yard share, 1.64 YPRR, and a 25.4% first-read share. Don’t forget that this is the same receiver that ranked 16th in YPRR (2.20) and 19th in FD/RR (0.104) in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). That talent didn’t suddenly disappear. It was depressed by a quarterback last year that ranked 21st in CPOE and 25th in clean pocket passer rating. Last year, he was the WR34 in fantasy points per game and the WR21 in expected fantasy points per game. With Jayden Daniels under center, McLaurin could return to the WR2 ranks in 2024.
Kirk will be the Jaguars’ WR1 in 2024. He was on his way to a monstrous season before getting derailed by injury. In Weeks 2-12, Krik was the WR19 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 22.6% target share and 30.5% air-yard share, producing 2.31 YPRR and 0.101 FD/RR. If he had kept up that pace for the full season, he would have ranked 22nd, 17th, and 22nd in those categories. His full season counting stat pace was 138 targets, 94 receptions, and 1,278 receiving yards.
With Calvin Ridley gone, Kirk’s biggest competition for targets is Evan Engram. Engram didn’t break out last year until Kirk was out, so I doubt Engram is the clear option over Kirk entering 2024. Gabriel Davis is a proven role player, and Brian Thomas Jr. is a rookie who will face growing pains in the NFL. Look for Trevor Lawrence to feed Kirk this year as one of the best values in fantasy drafts.
Every year, we have to navigate these suspension waters for some players. Rice’s ADP could vary widely from league to league. With that in mind, I’m more likely to take the leap and select Rice in leagues where he slips down the board, or I’m looking to “play catch up some” at wide receiver, depending on how my draft has unfolded. The additions of Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown to this passing attack have also muddied the waters for Rice. All of this uncertainty will make drafters wary of pressing the button, but the risk will be built into his ADP. While we can debate all of those factors, we can’t debate that Rice is a supremely talented player catching passes from one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. In Weeks 12-18, Rice ranked 12th in target share (25.2%), 10th in YPRR (2.77) and FD/RR (0.123), and ninth in fantasy points per route run (0.60). With every passing day, it looks like Rice won’t be suspended for this season. Buy the dip.
Smith-Njigba’s usage last year was comical. The team neutered him into a low aDOT player when he has the skills to be so much more. When he was aligned outside, he flashed the talent that had plenty of Fantasy GMs drafting him aggressively last year. Among 81 qualifying wide receivers last season, when he was running routes on the perimeter, Smith-Njigba ranked 15th in YPRR and fourth in TPRR. Among 61 qualifying receivers with at least 40 perimeter targets, he also ranked 14th in FD/RR. With a new head coach and offensive coordinator to revamp this offense and a retooled offensive line, Smith-Njigba should flourish in his sophomore season.
I hate to break it to the Dontayvion Wicks and Jayden Reed hives, but when Watson was on the field last year, he remained the Packer’s WR1. In Weeks 5-13, Watson led the team in target share (17.7%), air-yard share (36.7%), YPRR (1.79), end zone targets (14), first-read share (22.3%), and FD/RR (0.081). Hamstring woes have plagued Watson for the last two years, but Green Bay investigated further into it this offseason with the hopes of getting their stud third-year wide receiver right for 2024. If Watson can finally enjoy a fully healthy season, he can fulfill the potential we have seen in spurts over the last two seasons.
No one should question Odunze’s talent. In his final season in college, Odunze ranked 18th in YPRR and 8th in PFF receiving grade. It is fair to wonder about his ability to earn targets in year one, as D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen will flank him. There are reasons to be hopeful for Odunze, though. Unlike Jaxon Smith-Njigba last year, Odunze can still have splash weeks this year because of his ability to stretch the field, as his 15.5 aDOT in 2023 attests, so he can maximize some lost volume with big plays. The volume of this passing attack could surprise us as well, though. In 2021-2023, under new Bears’ offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, Seattle ranked seventh in neutral pace and ninth in neutral passing rate. If the passing volume shocks the world and/or Keenan Allen or D.J. Moore misses any time, Odunze could outplay his ADP.
Fantasy Football Draft Targets: Tight Ends
McBride was on a tear at the end of last year, and I fully expect him to pick up right where he left off in 2024, where he left off. In Weeks 8-18, among tight ends, he ranked first in weighted opportunity and target share, fourth in YPRR and missed tackles forced, and fifth in PFF receiving grade. If you extrapolated that ten-game sample over a full season, McBride would have finished with 144 targets, 112 receptions, and 1,114 receiving yards. Yes, McBride will have to contend with Marvin Harrison Jr. weekly for the team target lead, but that’s it. There isn’t another soul on the Cardinals roster that will consistently push these two with a high-end target share. McBride could easily finish this season as the TE1 overall.
Pitts was railroaded yet again last year by Arthur Smith, as he played most of the season at less than 100%. Pitts finished as the TE16 in fantasy points per game and the TE15 in expected fantasy points per game. Much of this can be attributed to his minuscule touchdown production (only three, 18th among TEs) and a non-existent red zone role (34th in red zone targets). While Pitts lagged in YPRR and FD/RR (18th in both), he still flashed in one of the metrics I look to for projecting talent and ceiling at the tight end position, and that’s YPRR vs. man coverage. Last year, Pitts ranked seventh in this metric, immediately behind Travis Kelce. With a revamped offensive system, a clean bill of health, and improved quarterback play, Pitts is set to soar this season.
Kittle proved last year that the tank isn’t dry. He was the TE6 in fantasy points per game, finishing with the third-highest receptions and receiving yards of his career, while he ranked only tenth in raw target volume (90). Kittle’s high leverage usage was fine, though, as he was first in deep targets and 10th in red zone targets among tight ends. Among 51 qualifying tight ends, he ranked first in YPRR (2.42) and seventh in FD/RR (0.10). Kittle can easily post another top-six fantasy tight end season in 2024.
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