Tracking risers and fallers in average draft position (ADP) at Underdog can be valuable to avoid getting sniped on players or attempt to push it a little longer on others. Many outlets and analysts look at weekly ADP changes, which are valuable. However, this piece will offer a larger view, looking at the fantasy football ADP risers and fallers at Underdog from July 16 to August 22.
Underdog Fantasy Football Risers & Fallers: Late July to August
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy was the only top-12 quarterback who rose in ADP from July 16 to August 22, and Dak Prescott was the only one to climb from outside the top 12 to inside the top 12 among signal-callers. Youngsters Drake Maye and Bryce Young also rose one spot among quarterbacks. The largest risers were the only two quarterbacks selected in the first round of this year’s NFL Draft, Cam Ward (nine picks) and Jaxson Dart (seven picks).
The camp reports and the limited preseason action for Justin Fields didn’t go well, causing him to fall a couple of spots from QB10 to QB12. Fields’ rushing ability gives him weekly spiked potential, but his limitations as a passer and lackluster supporting cast reduce the likelihood of consistent performances and the number of spiked weeks he has in 2025.
Caleb Williams carved up Buffalo’s reserves in his second preseason game, which was encouraging after underwhelming camp reports. He had a three-and-out and a scoreless drive in the first quarter against Kansas City’s starting defenders in the third preseason game before stat padding against reserves. I highlighted the sophomore quarterback as one to avoid in June, and even at his reduced ADP, I suggest fading him unless he falls more than a round past his ADP in Underdog drafts.
I’m also uninterested in Tua Tagovailoa and agree with his fall. Matthew Stafford‘s slide is related to concerns about his back. Even if he plays in Week 1, it remains to be seen if his back can handle the rigors of a long NFL season. Stafford’s only intriguing as a QB3 on teams with Puka Nacua or Davante Adams.
Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs and Chase Brown were the top-12 running backs who moved up, and Omarion Hampton is now an RB1 in ADP. TreVeyon Henderson and Jacory Croskey-Merritt (on the second page of the table) were the most eye-catching surgers in ADP. I’m delighted to chase Tony Pollard up the board since Tyjae Spears is nursing a high-ankle sprain, making Pollard a probable workhorse in the interim. Tank Bigsby and Braelon Allen are two more massive risers who warrant shouting out. I’m not particularly interested in either at their new ADP unless they are bring-backs for Week 15, Week 16 or Week 17 stacks. However, both running backs are more appealing in best ball leagues than managed formats since gamers won’t have to guess when they splash paydirt and provide fantasy value.
Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs and Breece Hall were the RB1s who fell between July 16 and August 22, and Hall should fall further. Joe Mixon‘s ADP has cratered because of a mysterious but serious foot injury.
Quinshon Judkins‘ ADP was lower at one point during the period between July 16 and August 22, but gamers have unwisely chased him up the board after it was announced he wouldn’t face battery charges. Nevertheless, the NFL could still issue a suspension. More importantly, Judkins is still unsigned.
Najee Harris injured his eye in a fireworks accident around July 4th. General Manager Joe Hortiz hopes Harris will be ready for Week 1, but that’s not set in stone. Harris’s absence might have allowed Hampton to fully usurp a bell-cow role, making Harris a mediocre handcuff option with questions about when he’ll return and if the eye injury will impact his performance.
Brian Robinson‘s landing spot as Christian McCaffrey‘s primary backup isn’t ideal for his outlook or Isaac Guerendo‘s. Yet, B-Rob is still a draftable handcuff in the 150s, and Guerendo’s shoulder injury, coupled with the addition of Robinson, should probably go undrafted from now on. Conversely, Austin Ekeler‘s fall is head-scratching. He’s an excellent target, even ahead of his ADP, as Washington’s best pass-catching back.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins and Amon-Ra St. Brown moved up in the top-12 wideouts, and Tyreek Hill inexplicably moved up to the WR12 in ADP. I first suggested gamers avoid Hill in June, and I doubled down this month.
Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka rightfully moved up with more news about a teammate’s injury and another wideout suffering an injury that will sideline him for a chunk of the season. Second-year wideouts with pedigree, draft capital or who flashed as rookies have frequently been excellent investments in fantasy football, and Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall, Keon Coleman and Jalen Coker are risers from that bucket. Adonai Mitchell and Troy Franklin are also second-year wide receivers who’ve had favorable camp reports in the offseason.
Justin Jefferson injured his hamstring in late July. However, he returned to practice a week ago. I’ve been drafting Jefferson around his ADP. Nacua was the only other top-12 wideout to fall, and teammates Adams and Tutu Atwell also fell, which is a reasonable reaction to uncertainty around Stafford’s back injury.
Rashee Rice‘s ADP cratered. The NFL reportedly wants to hand him a sizable suspension, and an arbitrator won’t hear Rice and the NFLPA’s argument for a shorter suspension until the end of September if both sides can’t reach an agreement before then. The murkiness of the length of Rice’s suspension and when he’ll serve it make him a risky pick, even at his dropping ADP.
Speaking of suspensions, even though Jordan Addison‘s three-game suspension was expected, his ADP has fallen. I alluded to Chris Godwin‘s and Jalen McMillan‘s falls above when discussing Evans’ and Egbuka’s rise. Godwin had a second procedure on his ankle in the offseason, and McMillan will open the year on the Injured Reserve (IR) with a severely strained neck that could sideline him for a substantial portion of the season.
Tre’ Harris and Quentin Johnston tumbled in the wake of the Chargers’ signing of Keenan Allen. I sandbagged mentioning Allen, but he was one of the biggest risers at wide receiver after returning to the Chargers following one year with the Bears. Finally, Darnell Mooney and Brandon Aiyuk are fallers because the former is working back from a shoulder injury, and the latter will likely start the year on the IR or the physically unable to perform (PUP) list while working back from reconstructive surgery for a multi-ligament (ACL and MCL) knee tear.
Tight Ends
George Kittle didn’t leapfrog Brock Bowers or Trey McBride, but a three-pick climb in the top-40 picks warranted highlighting him as a riser. Mark Andrews dipped behind Tyler Warren among tight ends. However, Andrews’ nine-pick upward movement took priority over his slide to TE8, landing him on the risers table. He should benefit from a likely early-season absence from a forthcoming teammate.
Colston Loveland and Elijah Arroyo joined Warren as rookie risers at tight end. While I support Loveland’s climb, Arroyo’s ADP might dip before the Underdog best ball contests close, with AJ Barner serving as a roadblock. Chig Okonkwo had the second-largest ADP rise among tight ends between July 16 and August 22, trailing only Warren’s meteoric rise. Okonkwo could be Ward’s No. 2 target behind only Calvin Ridley.
Evan Engram and David Njoku moved up slightly in ADP but fell within the rankings at tight end. They were the only fallers among the top-12 tight ends. Isaiah Likely was the player I was alluding to in Andrews’ analysis above. He had surgery in late July for a foot injury, and it’s unclear when he’ll be ready to suit up in the regular season.
Jonnu Smith was traded from the Dolphins to the Steelers. He has more competition for playing time and usage at tight end with Pat Freiermuth than he had with the Dolphins. Drafters quickly began scooping up Darren Waller in the 180s after the Dolphins coaxed him out of retirement and traded a pick to the Giants for his services. However, Waller was only recently activated from the PUP list. It could take him time to carve out a meaningful role in Miami’s offense, if he does at all. Finally, Mike Gesicki is dealing with a hamstring injury, and the Bengals signed Noah Fant. Gesicki’s fall is understandable. Nonetheless, I’m still willing to include him in three-TE best ball builds around his present ADP.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
