The Primer: Week 2 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• PHI -1.5, O/U 47
• Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings

Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jalen Hurts
• Saquon Barkley
• Travis Kelce

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Isiah Pacheco (RB)

Isiah Pacheco‘s Week 1 usage and stat line were nightmare fuel if you invested in him in draft season. He played only 51% of the snaps, finishing with seven touches and 28 total yards. He had 50% of the running back rushing workload, a 29.8% route share, and a 7.7% target share. Pacheco did get the only red zone carry for the backs and was effective with his tiny workload, with a 20% missed tackle rate and 3.20 yards after contact per attempt. Kansas City should lean on him this week, but we’ll see if that happens. Andy Reid didn’t do so last week and abandoned the running game. The matchup is there for Reid to come to his senses this week and give Pacheco more work. Last week, Philly had the sixth-lowest stuff rate, gave up the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt, and allowed the second-most yards before contact per attempt.

DeVonta Smith (WR)

A.J. Brown wasn’t the only Philly wide receiver to have a down Week 1. DeVonta Smith walked away from the game with only a 13% target share and 13 receiving yards (0.50 yards per route run). I feel better about Smith’s outlook in Week 2 than Brown’s. Smith still commanded a 30% first-read share and posted a 9.4% route win rate against Dallas. His route win rate isn’t great, but it’s better than logging zero route wins in Week 1 like Brown. The interesting piece of Smith’s usage in Week 1 was his 69% slot rate. That also helps his Week 2 outlook as Kansas City has struggled to defend the slot over the last two seasons. In 2024, the Chiefs allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target to the slot, and in Week 1 of this season, they gave up the eighth-most PPR points per target. Fire Smith up again in Week 2.

Hollywood Brown (WR)

Hollywood Brown looks ticketed for a high-volume role until Xavier Worthy and/or Rashee Rice return. In Week 1, he had a 35.9% target share, a 36.4% air-yard share, 2.25 yards per route run, and a 40% first-read share. He was the WR9 in fantasy last week. Yes, a large chunk of his receiving yardage came on a play where the coverage was blown, allowing Brown to be wide open for a big gain. That is absolutely true, but we still can’t run away from this type of volume for any receiver. Brown is tied for the league lead in red zone targets (three). In the second half of Week 1’s game, Brown’s slot usage increased to 64%, so I think he’ll be the primary slot option again this week for Mahomes. That means Brown will have to duel with Cooper DeJean (33% catch rate and 42.4 passer rating allowed). Last year, Philly allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Brown will get plenty of opportunities this week to overcome a bad matchup.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Grant Calcaterra (TE)

Grant Calcaterra will draw the start at tight end for Philly in Week 2. Last year, in the eight games he played at least 70% of the snaps, he had an 82.7% route share, a 10.3% target share, averaged 29 receiving yards, had 1.25 yards per route run, and an 8.5% first-read share. He averaged only 5.9 fantasy points per game with one TE1 finish in weekly scoring. Calcaterra finds himself as a low-end streaming option at the tight end position because the matchup this week is fantastic. Last year, Kansas City allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game, the most receiving yards, and the fourth-highest yards per reception to tight ends.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Patrick Mahomes II (QB)

Patrick Mahomes was the QB6 in fantasy Week 1, but that was largely due to his rushing production (57 yards, one score). I know the Xavier Worthy injury hurt his passing upside, but he also wasn’t great chucking the rock either. Mahomes ranked 15th in yards per attempt, 17th in passer rating, and 25th in CPOE and aDOT. His deeper metrics were even more concerning as he ranked 20th in highly accurate throw rate, 29th in catchable target rate, and had the third-highest off-target rate. The Eagles’ defense wasn’t perfect in Week 1, and the numbers don’t tell the entire story, as drops impacted Dak Prescott‘s stat line. With that said, Philly is still one of the better pass defenses in the NFL. They allowed the ninth-lowest yards per attempt, the tenth-lowest passer rating, and the 14th-lowest CPOE in Week 1. Again, it has been one game, and those numbers need context, but considering Mahomes’ play in Week 1 and the state of his skill player depth chart, I’m more bearish about his outlook for Week 2.

Xavier Worthy (WR)

Xavier Worthy has been listed as doubtful and is unlikely to play in Week 2.

A.J. Brown (WR)

A.J. Brown was a ghost in Week 1. He had only one target (4.3% target share), eight receiving yards, and a 10% first-read share. He had only one first read target, which is not like Brown. I don’t want to play injury conspiracy theorist here, but I don’t think Brown is fully healthy based on his Week 1 usage and the fact that he failed to record a single route win (31 routes). Plugging Brown into your lineups in Week 2 is a risk. There’s no doubt about it. We have a one-game nightmare fuel sample to work off of. Playing him just comes down to your other options at the wide receiver position. Facing the Kansas City secondary could work in his favor if they don’t improve their play in Week 2. Last week, they allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Dallas Goedert (TE)

Dallas Goedert has been ruled out for Week 2.

WAS vs. GB | CHI vs. DET | CLE vs. BAL | NYG vs. DAL | JAC vs. CIN | LAR vs. TEN | SEA vs. PIT | BUF vs. NYJ | SF vs. NO | NE vs. MIA | CAR vs. ARI | DEN vs. IND | PHI vs. KC | ATL vs. MIN | TB vs. HOU | LAC vs. LV

Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings

• MIN -3.5, O/U 44.5
• Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings

Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Drake London
• Bijan Robinson
• Justin Jefferson
• T.J. Hockenson

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

J.J. McCarthy (QB)

Tell me if you’ve heard this before…J.J. McCarthy will be a QB1 in fantasy in 2025. Well, despite the entire social media landscape attempting to dig his grave in the first half of Week 1’s matchup with the Bears, McCarthy DID IT! He was the QB11 in fantasy in Week 1, and once he settled in, he was fantastic. There will be growing pains for McCarthy, but he was awesome once the offensive line gave him some time, and his clock caught up to the speed of the NFL. In Week 1, he ranked 12th in yards per attempt and passer rating, fourth in CPOE, and tenth in catchable target rate. He also added 25 yards and a score on the ground. McCarthy will need his offensive line to hold up again this week against a defense that ranked 11th in blitz rate and third in pressure rate. If he has time, he can pick apart a secondary that in Week 1 allowed the 14th-highest success rate per dropback and 11th-highest passer rating.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Aaron Jones (RB)

The split backfield that we thought was coming for Aaron Jones happened right out of the gate in Week 1. Jones finished as the RB12 in fantasy, but he only played 47% of the snaps with 11 touches and 67 total yards. He had 34.7% of the running back rushing attempts, a 37.5% route share, a 15% target share, and zero red zone carries (Mason three). His receiving usage and the long touchdown helped save his fantasy day. Jones looked ok on a per-touch basis with a 13% missed tackle rate and 2.63 yards after contact per attempt. Jones will have to rack up his fantasy production again through the air this week with a tough rushing matchup against Atlanta. In Week 1, the Falcons had the eighth-highest stuff rate and allowed the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate and only 1.09 yards before contact per attempt. Last year, Atlanta gave up the most receptions and the second-most (tied) receiving touchdowns to running backs, so Jones could find success through the air.

Jordan Mason (RB)

Jordan Mason began the 2025 season with the role we thought he’d have all offseason. Mason was the goal line and early down hammer for Minny. He finished with a 57% snap rate, 16 touches, 75 total yards, 65.2% of the running back rushing work, and all of the red zone carries (three). He had only a 25% route share and 5% target share, as Aaron Jones is the primary receiving back. Mason’s per carry efficiency wasn’t great with zero missed tackles forced and only 2.0 yards after contact per attempt, but it’s a small sample size, so don’t panic yet. He has a brutal matchup on the ground this week, though, and will need a score to pay off this week. In Week 1, the Falcons had the eighth-highest stuff rate and allowed the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate and only 1.09 yards before contact per attempt.

Darnell Mooney (WR)

Darnell Mooney missed Week 1 as he is still dealing with a shoulder injury. He will suit up in Week 2 and doesn’t carry an injury designation into the game, but we know he likely still isn’t 100% healthy. Last year, Darnell Mooney posted the second WR3 finish of his career in fantasy points per game (WR34). Last season, Mooney had a 19.6% target share while averaging 62 receiving yards per game (29th-best), posting 2.04 yards per route run (31st) and 0.099 first downs per route run (28th). In Week 1, Minnesota utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (67.4%). Last season, against two high, Mooney was fantastic, logging a 22% target per route run rate, 2.29 yards per route run, and a 26.3% first-read share. Mooney is a strong flex for Week 2. In Week 1, Minnesota ranked 18th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.

Adam Thielen (WR)

In Week 1, Thielen had only a 62.5% route share, a 5% target share, and a 5.9% first-read share. He ran 40% of his routes from the slot. All of these numbers are concerning for Thielen entering Week 2. Thielen looks like the very distant fourth target in this offense right now behind Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and probably Aaron Jones. His 0.200 separation score and 20% route win rate in Week 1 are both very solid marks, so I don’t think he’s just suddenly cooked. Last week, A.J. Terrell followed Mike Evans on nearly 55% of his routes, so Justin Jefferson could get this treatment in Week 2. This would leave Thielen matching up with Mike Hughes (2024: 67.2% catch rate and 98.7 passer rating allowed) and Billy Bowman Jr. (50% catch rate and 64.6 passer rating allowed) for most of the day. Atlanta did give up the eighth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers in Week 1, so there’s a silver lining here. Thielen still isn’t anything more than a low-end/deep league flex option, though.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Michael Penix Jr. (QB)

Michael Penix finished Week 1 as the QB10 in fantasy thanks to his 21 rushing yards (six carries) and rushing score. I’m not saying that he wasn’t solid or even very good as a passer, but the rushing fantasy points put him over the top in the fantasy production department. Last week, Penix ranked 13th in yards per attempt, 15th in CPOE, sixth-best in highly accurate throw rate, and 14th in catchable target rate. Penix played quickly and decisively, ranking 11th in time to throw. Penix will have a tougher matchup in Week 2 than he faced in Week 1. The Bucs had the fourth-lowest pressure rate last week. That won’t be the case this week as Brian Flores will heat up Penix early and often. Minnesota ranked eighth in blitz rate and second in pressure rate in Week 1. They also allowed the 13th-fewest yards per attempt, the third-lowest CPOE, and the 13th-lowest success rate per dropback. This is a litmus test for Penix, and he might be down a few receiving options this week.

Kyle Pitts (TE)

Kyle Pitts had a surprising stat line in Week 1, but the matchup was in his favor. This week, not so much. Last week, Pitts was the TE7 in fantasy with an 81% route share, a 19% target share, 1.55 yards per route run, a 13.3% first-read share, and 0.132 first downs per route run. Pitts has a good history against Tampa Bay and their single high coverage (51.1% last week). This week, the matchup doesn’t look good for him. In Week 1, Minnesota utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (67.4%). Last year and in Week 1, Pitts wasn’t a big part of the Atlanta attack plan against two high. Last week, against two high, he had only a 10% target per route run rates and a 7.1% first-read share. Last year against that coverage shell, he had an 18% target per route run rate, 0.92 yards per route run, and a 13.4% first-read share. Minnesota was 15th in receiving yards and 17th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends. Pitts might make some starting lineups this week because of the state of the tight end position in fantasy, but I don’t project a monster game for him in Week 2.

WAS vs. GB | CHI vs. DET | CLE vs. BAL | NYG vs. DAL | JAC vs. CIN | LAR vs. TEN | SEA vs. PIT | BUF vs. NYJ | SF vs. NO | NE vs. MIA | CAR vs. ARI | DEN vs. IND | PHI vs. KC | ATL vs. MIN | TB vs. HOU | LAC vs. LV

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans

• HOU -2.5, O/U 42.5
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings

Texans Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Nico Collins
• Bucky Irving

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Baker Mayfield (QB)

Despite finishing as the QB12 in fantasy Week 1(because of three passing scores), Baker Mayfield struggled and could do so again this week. Last week, he had the eighth-lowest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest CPOE, the third-lowest catchable target rate, and the second-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. Yes, I know it is only one game, but I’ll also mention that when discussing Houston’s defense. The Texans allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt and passer rating and the ninth-highest CPOE in Week 1. I don’t think Mayfield or the Texans’ secondary is as bad as they showed in Week 1. One of these things has to give in Week 2, which leaves the door open for Mayfield to have a bounce-back game in a surprising spot. Houston has a talented defense, so I could easily be wrong. Houston did show some cracks in the armor in Week 1. Last year, Houston gave up the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest passer rating, and the lowest CPOE.

Mike Evans (WR)

In Week 1, Mike Evans had quiet open to the season as the WR37 in weekly scoring. Among 105 qualifying receivers, he still ranked fifth in separation and third in route win rate, so I’m not concerned, as he also had strong market share metrics. Evans had a 25% target share, a 34.3% air-yard share, 0.129 first downs per route run, and a 30% first-read share. Evans dealt with A.J. Terrell on 55% of his routes in Week 1, securing three of his five targets with 28 receiving yards. Evans has another tough matchup this week, but Kamari Lassiter (100% catch rate and 142.4 passer rating allowed) and Derek Stingley Jr. (71.4% catch rate and 94.9 passer rating) had some hiccups last week out of the gate. If they are still a tad off their games in Week 2, as players find their regular-season legs, look for Evans to capitalize.

Emeka Egbuka (WR)

Emeka Egbuka made his presence known in Week 1. He was the WR4 in fantasy, earning an 18.8% target share with 2.03 yards per route run and a 20% first-read share. Egbuka spiked two touchdowns and saw an endzone target while running 45.5% of his routes from the slot. Among 104 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 24th in route win rate. Egbuka has a tough matchup in Week 2, but he should be in starting lineups. Kamari Lassiter (100% catch rate and 142.4 passer rating allowed) and Derek Stingley Jr. (71.4% catch rate and 94.9 passer rating) had some hiccups last week out of the gate. If they’re still off their games, Egbuka can take advantage when outside. If not, he should still have a productive day against a defense that allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to the slot in Week 1. Last year, Houston allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target to the slot.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

N/A

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

C.J. Stroud (QB)

It’s a new year for C.J. Stroud, but after one game, it looks very similar to 2024. Last week, Stroud was the QB26 in fantasy, ranking 14th in yards per attempt, 26th in passer rating, and 21st in highly accurate throw rate. He had no time in the pocket against the Rams, and likely he won’t have much more time this week against the Bucs. He faced the second-highest pressure rate with the 14th-highest pressure-to-sack rate. If Stroud can get time in the pocket (a big if), he could have success against this secondary, but we’ll have to see if that’s possible. In Week 1, Tampa Bay allowed the 13th-highest yards per attempt while ranking 15th in passer rating and CPOE. Last week, Tampa Bay ranked 13th in pressure rate despite only blitzing on 21.3% of their snaps. That blitz rate likely climbs this week, and the pressure rate with it against Houston.

Nick Chubb (RB)

Nick Chubb did lead the Houston backfield, but he wasn’t the “bell cow” that was reported prior to Week 1. He played 49% of the snaps while seeing 48% of the rushing share and logging a 20.6% route share. The backfield was split up into four parts in Week 1, with Chubb, Dare Ogunbowale, Dameon Pierce, and Woody Marks all seeing at least seven snaps. Chubb was encouraging with his volume. While he didn’t have any explosive runs and only had 2.08 yards after contact per attempt, he did have a 31% missed tackle rate. If this offensive line can open some holes for him, he could surprise this season if that continues. Sadly, I don’t think that starts this week. Tampa Bay picked up right where they left off last year as a top-shelf run defense in Week 1. They allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards and yards after contact per attempt, zero explosive runs, and the 11th-lowest missed tackle rate. Chubb needs a touchdown to save his fantasy outing in Week 2.

Rachaad White (RB)

This looks like Bucky Irving‘s backfield in 2025, which takes Rachaad White out of the flex conversation. In Week 1, he had only three touches and 16 total yards while playing 24% of the snaps. Sit White until his touch/snap count rises (if it does). He is droppable if there’s a stronger option on the waiver wire.

Woody Marks (RB)

Woody Marks isn’t playing enough yet to consider him for any lineup. In Week 1, Marks only had three carries and played seven snaps. The backfield was split up among four backs, with each playing at least seven snaps. Until the running back usage narrows some or Marks gets a bump up the pecking order, he’s just a bench stash.

Cade Otton (TE)

Cade Otton isn’t on the streaming radar this week. In Week 1, he had a 73% route share but turned that into only a 6.3% target share and 10% first-read share in a plus matchup. This week, he doesn’t even have a plus matchup to lean on. Last year, Houston allowed the 11th-fewest yards per reception and the 13th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Sit Otton.

**No Houston wide receiver outside of Nico Collins had above a 65% route share in Week 1. The Texans didn’t trust their talented duo of rookie wide receivers (Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel), as they had 38.2% (Higgins) and 41.2% (Noel) route shares, respectively. I expect this to change and their roles to grow as we move through the season, but until we see how this wide receiver room shakes out, Xavier Hutchinson, Higgins, and Noel aren’t startable.**

WAS vs. GB | CHI vs. DET | CLE vs. BAL | NYG vs. DAL | JAC vs. CIN | LAR vs. TEN | SEA vs. PIT | BUF vs. NYJ | SF vs. NO | NE vs. MIA | CAR vs. ARI | DEN vs. IND | PHI vs. KC | ATL vs. MIN | TB vs. HOU | LAC vs. LV

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• LAC -3.5, O/U 46.5
• Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings

Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Justin Herbert
• Ashton Jeanty
• Ladd McConkey
• Brock Bowers (if he plays…you play him)

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Geno Smith (QB)

Good lawd. Geno Smith came out firing in Week 1, directing a Las Vegas offense that was seventh in neutral passing rate and 14th in neutral script pace. Smith finished as the QB15 for the week, chucking for 362 yards. He ranked second in yards per attempt, tenth in passer rating, and fifth in CPOE. The Bolts’ defense played well in Week 1, but I don’t know if they are for real. Smith is a strong streaming quarterback option this week. In Week 1, Los Angeles ranked 17th in passer rating while allowing the eighth-lowest CPOE and tenth-lowest success rate per dropback. They were also facing Patrick Mahomes, who quickly reverted to Alex Smith 2.0 in Week 1 after Xavier Worthy‘s injury. Smith will have to deal with the Bolts’ pass rush, which was tenth in pressure rate last week.

Omarion Hampton (RB)

Omarion Hampton‘s Week 1 stat line wasn’t sexy, but his usage was, and if that keeps up, he should be awesome this year. Najee Harris played only 12 snaps (18.5%). Hampton finished with 17 touches and 61 total yards while playing 80% of the snaps and seeing a 53.7% route share. Hampton’s tackle breaking wasn’t amazing (13% missed tackle rate and 2.07 yards after contact per attempt), but it’s a one-game sample against a tough run defense. The Raiders shut down the Patriots’ run game in Week 1. We’ll see if they can do it again in Week 2, but in Week 1, they had the seventh-highest stuff rate, the tenth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Hampton should flirt with 20 touches this week, and if he gets in the endzone, he should be a solid RB2.

Jakobi Meyers (WR)

Jakobi Meyers began the 2025 season with a game that should help his case for a new contract from the Raiders. He was the WR15 in fantasy, seeing a 29.4% target share with 2.69 yards per route run and a 27.3% first-read share. Meyers should see similar volume this week (if not more) with Brock Bowers out. Meyers will match up against Tarheeb Still (career: 67.5% catch rate and 83.8 passer rating allowed), as he ran 61% of his routes from the slot in Week 1. Last year, the Bolts allowed the 13th-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Keenan Allen (WR)

Keenan Allen proved he still has it in Week 1 as the WR10 in fantasy. Among 77 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 23rd in separation and tenth in route win rate. He had a 26.5% target share, 2.13 yards per route run, and a 28% first-read share (tied with Ladd McConkey for the team lead). He had one end zone target. Allen should post another nice stat line in Week 2 against a secondary that allowed the eighth-most fantasy points and ninth-most receiving yards to wide receivers in Week 1.

Quentin Johnston (WR)

Ok, I believe in Quentin Johnston‘s monster performance in Week 1. The Bolts are utilizing him the way that he should have always been used. He’s running a ton of crossing routes and being asked to run away from defenders. His route running has also tightened up from previous seasons, as he was sharp with some stop routes. Johnston earned a 20.6% target share, 31.7% air-yard share, and a 24% first-read share in Week 1 with 2.19 yards per route run and two end zone targets. He was the WR3 for the week with 79 receiving yards and two scores. Among 77 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 15th in separation and sixth in route win rate. In Week 1, the Raiders allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers. Johnston will line up against Kyu Blu Kelly (75% catch rate and 99.5 passer rating allowed) and Eric Stokes (71.4% catch rate and 87.2 passer rating allowed) the entire game.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Michael Mayer (TE)

If Brock Bowers misses Week 2, Michael Mayer is a low-end tight end streaming option this week. In Week 1, he had a 41% route share while drawing an 11.8% target share with 2.38 yards per route run (38 receiving yards) and a 9.1% first-read share. If Bowers is out, with how consolidated the Raiders’ passing attack is, Mayer should be the number two option behind only Jakobi Meyers. Despite a tough matchup, he should have the volume to fit the bill as a streaming option this week. Last year, the Bolts allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and the second-lowest yards per reception to tight ends.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Dont’e Thornton Jr. (WR)

Dont’e Thornton will likely have some flex-worthy weeks this season, but not yet. In Week 1, he had only a 53.8% route share and an 11.8% target share. His 25.0 aDOT is intriguing, but he’s not playing enough or seeing enough volume to count on as even a high-upside dart throw flex, yet.

WAS vs. GB | CHI vs. DET | CLE vs. BAL | NYG vs. DAL | JAC vs. CIN | LAR vs. TEN | SEA vs. PIT | BUF vs. NYJ | SF vs. NO | NE vs. MIA | CAR vs. ARI | DEN vs. IND | PHI vs. KC | ATL vs. MIN | TB vs. HOU | LAC vs. LV

Washington Commanders vs. Green Bay Packers

• GB -3.5, O/U 48.5
• Washington Commanders vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings

Packers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jayden Daniels
• Josh Jacobs

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Terry McLaurin (WR)

Terry McLaurin didn’t have the strong start to the season that I hoped for, considering the matchup. He had only a 13.3% target share, a 29.2% air-yard share, 0.87 yards per route run (27 receiving yards), and an 18.2% first-read share. McLaurin’s 19.3 aDot was interesting. I hope that Washington isn’t shoving him into a field-stretching-only role while Deebo Samuel takes the high-volume usage weekly, but I guess we’ll see how that works out as we move through the season. Jayden Daniels overshot McLaurin on a go route against the Giants that could have made his final stat line better, so I’m not pressing the panic button just yet. In Week 1, Green Bay was 12th in single-high rate (55.1%). Last year, McLaurin was quite good against single high with 2.42 yards per route run, a 24.8% first-read share, and 0.101 first downs per route run. It has only been one game, but I’m not sold that Carrington Valentine and Keisean Nixon can hang with McLaurin. The perimeter duo combined to allow an 83.3% catch rate and 110.4 passer rating in Week 1. I know I’m out on a limb with including McLaurin in the strong starts category this week, but it has been one game, so let’s not overreact too much.

Deebo Samuel (WR)

Deebo Samuel started the season off right as he shut all the haters up. After an offseason where social media posts questioned his conditioning, Samuel finished with 22.6 fantasy points, 19 rushing yards, and a score. He ran out of the slot for 76% of his snaps, swallowing up a 33.3% target share with a 36.4% first-read share, producing 77 receiving yards (2.64 yards per route run). Samuel could continue terrorizing the NFL and making Washington look wise for investing in him this week. Last year, Green Bay gave up the 11th-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. Javon Bullard (Week 1: 90.9% catch rate and 93.9 passer rating) didn’t exactly look like a shut-down nickel in Week 1 either.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Zach Ertz (TE)

Zach Ertz has an unimpressive but steady start to the 2025 season. He finished with a 70.3% route per dropback rate, a 16.7% target share, 1.00 yards per route run, and a 22.7% first read share (second on the team). He did have a target in the red zone against the Giants. Ertz is a decent streaming option this week against a defense that allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game and the tenth-highest yards per reception to tight ends last year.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Jordan Love (QB)

These players are in the gray area. Not a smash start, not a hard fade. Jordan Love was quite good in Week 1 despite posting only 15.9 fantasy points. The problem wasn’t Love’s play, but the fact that he had only 23 dropbacks as the Packers turtled and sat on their lead against the Lions. In Week 1, Love ranked seventh in yards per attempt, fourth in passer rating, eighth in catchable target rate, second in hero throw rate, and seventh in fantasy points per dropback. Love will have what looks like a tough on-paper matchup this week against Washington, but it has been only one game (not to take anything away from Washington). In Week 1, they allowed the fourth-lowest yards per attempt and passer rating and the lowest CPOE. Yes, I know this was against the Giants. I think there also has to be some context to the fact that Washington was also fourth in pressure rate. The Commanders do have a talented defense, but this is probably best viewed as a middle-of-the-road matchup for Love and company and a litmus test for Washington’s defense. Love should have clean pockets to operate from in Week 2 after facing the fourth-lowest pressure rate in Week 1. The passing volume is a concern for Love, but Jayden Daniels can hopefully push them to take to the sky more in Week 2.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)

The SZN of BILL is here. Croskey-Merritt rendered Chris Rodriguez a healthy scratch in Week 1. He played only 33% of the snaps against the Giants, but he turned ten carries into 82 rushing yards. He split the red zone work with Austin Ekeler, with each player getting two carries inside the 20. Croskey-Merritt posted a 20% missed tackle rate and 4.10 yards after contact per attempt. He displayed the lateral agility, vision, and footwork that I loved in college. Croskey-Merritt looks gamescript sensitive at the moment after he had only a 13.5% route per dropback rate in Week 1. That could climb into the 30% range in Week 2 if he can shove Jeremy McNichols back into the shadows. Croskey-Merritt did have three pass blocking snaps in Week 1 and didn’t allow any hurries or pressures. Croskey-Merritt will have his work cut out for him in Week 2 against a stout Packers run defense. Last week, they allowed the fewest rushing yards (tied), zero explosive runs, and the fourth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. They did give up the highest missed tackle rate (32%), but that could easily be a one-week anomaly. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Green Bay allowed the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-fewest rushing yards per game, and the second-lowest missed tackle rate.

Austin Ekeler (RB)

Washington had Austin Ekeler leading the way in Week 1. He had a 47% snap share (46% route share), finishing with nine touches and 57 total yards. Ekeler had a 10% target share and split the red zone carry load with Jacory Croskey-Merritt (two each). His per-touch efficiency was snoozeworthy with zero explosive runs and missed tackles. Ekeler has the veteran nod for now, but Jacory Croskey-Merritt will eat into his work if he continues what he did in Week 1 in the next few games. Ekeler has uphill sledding in Week 2 against a stout Packers run defense. Last week, they allowed the fewest rushing yards (tied), zero explosive runs, and the fourth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. They did give up the highest missed tackle rate (32%), but that could easily be a one-week anomaly. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Green Bay allowed the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-fewest rushing yards per game, and the second-lowest missed tackle rate.

Jayden Reed (WR)

I understand it paid off in Week 1, but I STILL can’t trust Jayden in Reed in a fantasy lineup, right now. Yes, he led the team with a 22.7% target share and 28.6% first-read share, but if he didn’t score in Week 1, people would be more hesitant to play him. He had only a 52.2% route per dropback rate with an unsustainable 42% target per route run rate, which still only got him five targets. The Packers sat on their lead against the Lions, which limited the passing volume, but playing slow and strangling teams with the clock could be their approach in 2025. They had the second-fewest plays run in Week 1. Until Reed’s playing time changes, I can’t trust him in fantasy lineups. If it burns me, it burns me. It’s too volatile and could easily leave you with a goose egg in your lineup in any week.

Romeo Doubs (WR)

Romeo Doubs‘ usage in Week 1 was similarly concerning, with only a 65.2% route per dropback rate. Yes, he led the team with 68 receiving yards, but he needed 4.53 yards per route run to post that receiving yardage line, which isn’t sustainable at all. Doubs had an 18.2% target share and 21.4% first-read share, but those marks aren’t good enough to consider embracing the Green Bay WRBC. Doubs isn’t startable and can be dropped from your rosters if you can find a better option from the waiver wire to fill out your benches.

Matthew Golden (WR)

If you drafted Matthew Golden, it’s too early to consider cutting him, BUT you can’t trust in your starting lineup for fantasy purposes until his usage changes in Green Bay. In Week 1, Golden was fifth on the team with a 43.5% route per dropback rate. He had only a 9.1% target share and 14.3% first-read share. Neither of those is remotely high enough to consider starting him in Week 2 (even in the deepest of leagues). Matt LaFleur remains an intelligent and talented head coach, but this stuff is infuriating. Sit Golden.

Tucker Kraft (TE)

Tucker Kraft led the team with a 73.9% route per dropback rate while seeing an 18.2% target share. His end zone target that he converted into a touchdown saved an otherwise paltry stat line with two receptions and 16 receiving yards. Despite Kraft leading the way in routes, Green Bay still didn’t make it a point of emphasis to get the ball in his hands, with only a 7.1% first-read share. Kraft is a shaky option at tight end for Week 2 against a defense that last year allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game and ranked 16th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends.

WAS vs. GB | CHI vs. DET | CLE vs. BAL | NYG vs. DAL | JAC vs. CIN | LAR vs. TEN | SEA vs. PIT | BUF vs. NYJ | SF vs. NO | NE vs. MIA | CAR vs. ARI | DEN vs. IND | PHI vs. KC | ATL vs. MIN | TB vs. HOU | LAC vs. LV

Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn

*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*