Fantasy Football Player Notes

Well, so much for all of the regression talk about James Cook last year. Cook crushed all of the haters, improving his stock as the RB6 in fantasy points per game. He led the NFL in rushing yards (1,621) while finishing third in rushing attempts and sixth in rushing touchdowns (tied). Cook had 14 total touchdowns compared to the 18 that he spiked in the previous season. Cook remained extremely efficient as a rusher, ranking 15th in explosive run rate and 11th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). His passing game usage was nearly identical to the previous season, with 40 targets (38 targets in 2024) and 8.8 yards per reception (8.1 in 2024). We can quibble about where Cook sits in the RB1 rankings in 2026, but he remains a rock-solid RB1 in one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Josh Allen has been the QB1 in fantasy points per game in four of the last six seasons, and he's primed to finish atop the mountain again in 2026. The rushing floor and red zone equity remain as Allen has had at least 12 rushing scores and 524 rushing yards in each of the last three seasons. Last year, Allen was third in carries per game and first in red zone carries per game amongst quarterbacks. As a passer, he was still excellent last season. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, he was fifth in yards per attempt, third in highly accurate throw rate, and fourth in catchable target rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Allen is a wonderful pick in fantasy drafts again this season.

D.J. Moore's stock took a tumble last year as Moore sank to WR41 in fantasy points per game. Moore has a new home for 2026 and beyond after being traded to Buffalo as Josh Allen's new WR1. Moore had a 14.3% target share with 1.33 yards per route run, a 17.5% first-read share, and 0.063 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). None of these numbers offer hope for 2026, but don't tune out just yet because I'm getting to the hope segment of this outlook. Buffalo hasn't had a dependable high-end target share earning receiving option since Stefon Diggs, and Joe Brady's previous experience with Moore has him and Buffalo believing that he can return to that form in 2026. Moore's deeper analytics agree with Brady. Last year, among 109 qualifying receivers, Moore was 47th and 49th in separation score and route win rate. The numbers get even better when we look at Moore as a perimeter receiver, which he'll be asked to do more than the 65% of the snaps that he played there last year. As an outside receiver last year, among the same sample of receivers, he was 36th in separation and 29th in route win rate. Moore looks like a nice bounceback candidate this season as a WR2/3 with upside for much more.

If Dalton Kincaid could get a near full-time route share, he would be a league winner and season-defining player at the tight end position, with consideration to where he's being drafted. Last year, Kincaid was a monster on a per-route basis, leading to a TE13 finish in fantasy points per game. Last year, among 54 qualifying tight ends, Kincaid ranked FIRST in target per route run rate, yards per route run, separation score, route win rate, first downs per route run, and fantasy points per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). The problem is that, among the same sample of 54 tight ends, he was 39th in route share (44.2%) behind Michael Mayer. If Kincaid could see his route share climb near 70% (or above), he could be the TE1 overall in 2026, but the problem is that it is a BIG if. The good thing is that risk is priced into his ADP, but his soul-crushing upside isn't. Kincaid is a perfect tight end to pair with Dallas Goedert, Travis Kelce, or Jake Ferguson. It's a perfect two-tight-end build with floor and potential ceiling.

At this point in his career, we know who Khalil Shakir is. A low-ceiling WR3/4 or flex play on a weekly basis in PPR formats. Over the last two seasons, he has finished as the WR39 and WR33 in fantasy points per game. With the arrival of D.J. Moore this offseason, I don't see anything changing for Shakir. Last year, among 109 qualifying receivers, Shakir was 36th in target share, 55th in receiving yards per game, 41st in yards per route run, 38th in first-read share, and 80th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Shakir is a bye-week replacement flex play at best this season.

Through the first five weeks of the season, the Bills have the second-most difficult schedule. Under a new DC and defensive scheme, it might take some time for this unit to gel in 2026.

Tyler Bass missed the entire 2025 season with hip and groin injuries that required surgery, but it appears the Bills are planning on Bass being their kicker in 2026. Bass had surgery in November and is reportedly on track with his recovery. Bass was ninth in fantasy scoring among kickers in 2024, making 24-of-29 field goals and 59-of-64 extra points. It's appealing that Bass is tied to the prolific Josh Allen-led Buffalo offense. It's less appealing that Bass might be kicking in cold, windy and/or snowy conditions in Buffalo late in the season.