Fantasy Football Player Notes

Josh Allen finished QB2 in fantasy scoring last season behind only Lamar Jackson. Over the past five years, Jackson has led all QBs in fantasy scoring three times, with two runner-up finishes. His 22.6 fantasy points per game last season represented a five-year low, but that's a mighty high floor. Allen also hit five-year lows in passing yardage (3,731) and TD passes (28), but the lack of a marquee receiver was undoubtedly a factor. No Bills pass catcher had more than 821 receiving yards of five TD catches last year. Pass-catching firepower might still be an issue for Allen in 2025 since the Bills' only noteworthy additions in that department are WRs Josh Palmer and Elijah Moore. But Allen provides consistently excellent rushing numbers. He's averaged 591.7 rushing yards and 9.3 TD runs over his seven-year career, piling up 27 rushing touchdowns over the last two years. Despite his fearless running, Allen has been remarkably injury-resistant, having made 104 consecutive starts. He once again deserves to be one of the first two quarterbacks off the board in fantasy drafts.

I have some concerns about James Cook heading into the 2025 season. His touchdown totals for the last three seasons: 3, 6, 18. Which number looks like the outlier to you? Cook is being selected as a high-end RB2 in early drafts, which doesn't seem terribly unreasonable. But TD regression is inevitable, Cook probably isn't going to get a huge rushing load because he weighs less than 200 pounds, and while he's a good pass catcher, Cook might not be a huge needle-mover in that area simply because Josh Allen doesn't check down to his RBs very often. It's also possible the Bills give more work to second-year RB Ray Davis, who had 152 yards from scrimmage against the Jets in the one game Cook missed last season. But the Bills gave Cook a new deal in mid-August, and he should remain the leader of the Buffalo backfield.

I think there's a chance we could get a Year 2 breakout from rookie Keon Coleman after an uneven rookie season in which he produced 29-556-4 in 13 games. Although he didn't have a lot of catches, Coleman demonstrated his freaky ball skills and averaged a whopping 19.2 yards per catch and 9.8 yards per target. The Bills have sort of an ensemble cast at wide receiver, so there's an opportunity for Coleman to step up and seize a bigger role. I don't think he's ever going to be a guy who gets 130 or 140 targets a year, but Coleman is a guy who could potentially do a lot of damage on 100 or 110 targets.

As a member of Buffalo's ensemble cast at wide receiver, Khalil Shakir doesn't offer vast upside, but he's a solid depth piece for fantasy who might have some modest upside if his target share grows. Shakir finished with 76-821-4 in 15 games last season. He was WR40 in half-point PPR fantasy points per game among receivers who played at least eight games. To Shakir's credit, he makes the most of his opportunities. He's averaged 1.90 yards per route run and 9.7 yards per target over his three NFL seasons.

A lot of people were expecting big things from Dalton Kincaid in 2024 after his promising rookie season. But Kincaid failed to build on his 2023 numbers and experienced slippage in a number of areas. He went from 42.1 receiving yards per game as a rookie to 34.5 yards per game last year. His catch rate fell from 80.2% to 58.7%. His yards per target slipped from 7.4 to 6.0. On the bright side, Kincaid is a talented former first round pick with a good athletic profile. Josh Allen is one of the NFL's best quarterbacks, but the Bills don't have an abundance of firepower at wide receiver. It's possible Dalton delivers a breakout season in 2025 and establishes himself as an upper-echelon tight end.

Second-year RB Ray Davis is an intriguing later-round flyer. He's the No. 2 running back on the Bills' depth chart behind James Cook, but Cook has expressed displeasure with his contract an is seeking a new deal. And if the contract thing becomes an issue, the Bills could pivot Davis. When Cook missed a Week 6 game against the Jets with turf toe last season, Davis had 152 yards from scrimmage in that game. Davis is a versatile run-catch threat who scored 21 touchdowns in 13 games in his final college season at Kentucky.

Palmer is a solid and cheap bet to make on the Buffalo offense. His surface stats don't jump off the page. In the games in which he played at least 50% of the snaps last year, he had a 13.7% target share, 1.57 yards per route run, a 17.2% first-read share, and 0.075 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). It's when we pop open the hood and peek at his per-route metrics that things get interesting. Last year, among 112 qualifying wide receivers, Palmer was one of the best separators in the NFL, ranking 16th in separation and 12th in route win rate. Now, those numbers are eye-popping, especially when you discuss one of the best offenses in the NFL, yet only one receiving option was able to draw more than a 20% target share last year (Khalil Shakir). Palmer's route running and separation ability could lead to consistently heavier usage in Buffalo, where they don't have a receiver commanding a high target share. Palmer is worth the late-round flier to find out.

The Bills, who were the DST8 in fantasy points per game last year, should make another leap this season. Last year, they were tenth in pressure rate but only 18th in sacks, so they should see some positive regression in this department. Buffalo also ranked third in turnovers.

Tyler Bass is coming off a disappointing 2024 campaign as the K17 in PPG (9th-highest scoring kicker). He has failed to meet expectations set after his rookie season with back-to-back finishes outside the top-8 kickers. Projects closer to a low-end fantasy kicker given the Bills play just two games indoors all season.