Fantasy Football Player Notes
2024 Draft Rankings
21.
Josh Allen
QB
The fantasy track record Josh Allen has compiled is impressive. His fantasy finishes over the last five years: QB7, QB1, QB1, QB2, QB1. He's thrown for more than 4,000 yards in each of his last four seasons, averaging 4,385 passing yards and 34.3 TD passes over that span. Allen adds immense value as a runner. We probably shouldn't expect a repeat of the 15 rushing touchdowns he had this season, since his previous single-season high was nine. But Allen has averaged 596 rushing yards and 9.0 TD runs over the last five years. The Buffalo offense is built around Allen's talents, and that won't change anytime soon. Some people will make cases for other quarterbacks to be the fantasy QB1 in 2024, but Allen's case for that honor is the strongest.
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34.
James Cook
RB
Cook looks like a locked-in RB1 in 2024. After Joe Brady took over as the Bills' offensive coordinator, his season took off. In Weeks 11-18, Cook was the RB11, averaging 19.6 touches and 104.3 total yards per game. Yes, he only played more than 60% of the snaps twice during that stretch, but it didn't matter. When he was on the field, he was being fed the rock, and his pass game usage skyrocketed. After Week 10, he was 16th in target share (11.4%) among 34 qualifying backs while also ranking 10th in TPRR, fourth in receiving yards per game, and second in YPRR. The touchdown worries and red zone usage remain concerning. In the final seven games of the season, he did lead the running back room with a 48.1% snap rate inside the 20, but that number ranked 32nd out of 61 qualifying backs.
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44.
Stefon Diggs
WR
2023 was a terrible year for Stefon Diggs. He was WR10 overall, but he averaged just 13 points per game as the WR15 in half-point scoring. And his lackluster finish is what had fantasy football gamers pulling their hair out. From Week 10 onward, Diggs was the WR45 averaging a meager 7.3 points and 42 receiving yards per game. This was right around the time the Bills swapped Joe Brady as their new offensive coordinator as Ken Dorsey was fired after Week 10's loss to the Denver Broncos. And it's not like Diggs wasn't seeing opportunities. On the year, the Bills' polarizing WR finished just below a 30% target share with over 1,800 air yards. 12th overall in weighted opportunity. Even during the bad finish, Diggs still had a 25% target share and strong route participation at 85%. That makes it tough to draft Diggs confidently coming off career-lows across the board entering his age 31 season.
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125.
Dalton Kincaid
TE
The first tight end selected in the 2023 NFL Draft, Dalton Kincaid had an uneven but promising rookie year, finishing with 73 catches for 673 yards and two touchdowns, good for a TE11 finish in PPR scoring. Kincaid was especially productive over a five-game midseason stretch when fellow Bills TE Dawson Knox was out with a wrist injury. With Knox on the shelf, Kincaid averaged 7.4 targets, 6.2 catches and 56.2 receiving yards per game. He also scored both of his touchdowns over that span. In games that Knox played, Kincaid averaged 4.9 targets, 3.8 catches and 35.6 receiving yards per game. Kincaid has considerable talent and plays with one of the NFL's best quarterbacks in Josh Allen. But with Knox on the roster sharing snaps and targets, Kincaid's fantasy ceiling may be capped at midrange to low-end TE1 value.
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146.
Khalil Shakir
WR
Khalil Shakir tied a bow on his second season on an extremely high note. He showed up big in the absence of Gabe Davis, catching 16 of 17 targets for 180 yards and 2 TDs over the last three games of the season. Shakir finished the season with the NFL's highest catch rate (88%) and passer rating generated (141.5). He led the Bills in receiving EPA, and ranked 16th overall in that category among all NFL receivers. He has definitely "earned" a bigger role in the offense in 2024.
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148.
Curtis Samuel
WR
Curtis Samuel finished the 2023 season as the WR44 overall, averaging 7.9 fantasy points per game as the WR52 in points per game (7.9). Par for the course when it comes to Samuel, who always seems to string together consecutive weeks of production before seeing his numbers drop off because of injury.
His receiving numbers were nearly identical to his 2020 campaign, albeit he was more efficient as the Commanders primary slot WR. Unfortunately, he was barely used as a rusher with only 7 carries compared to 38 in 2022. Entering his age 28 season, Samuel has never finished higher than WR25 at any point during his career, regulating him to WR4 fantasy status regardless of any new landing spot. He will have his fair share of productive weeks, but nothing to move the needle as a fantasy game-changer. However it needs to be noted his best season came in 2020 under Joe Brady, his new OC in Buffalo. Attached to Josh Allen in a full-time role, Samuel has nice sleeper appeal in the Bills offense. |
186.
Buffalo Bills
DST
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211.
Tyler Bass
K
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284.
Damien Harris
RB
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296.
Dawson Knox
TE
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329.
Latavius Murray
RB
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422.
Ty Johnson
RB
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434.
Mack Hollins
WR
Mack Hollins is entering his age 31 season (wait what) and signed with the Buffalo Bills this offseason, presumably to operate as a field-stretcher and downfield blocker. Our new cardio king.
Hollins has only had one productive season in the NFL (2022 with the Raiders as the fantasy WR41) when finished 10th in routes run per dropbacks (93%) and commanded 1,153 air yards as the clear-cut No. 2 wide receiver. The journeyman new landing spot will likely be completely overlooked by fantasy managers, but a WR running a route on 90% or more of Josh Allen's dropbacks (the Gabe Davis role) is pretty tantalizing, especially at a free price tag. Just don't get carried away with Hollins as anything more than a depth fantasy WR4/5 a best. Worth an addition in deeper WR formats. |
496.
Justin Shorter
WR
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