Fantasy Football Player Notes

Since his monster Week 1 performance, Jefferson has struggled. Over his last two games, he's seen a 22% target share with 22.5% of the team's air yards. Among the 58 wide receivers with ten or more targets over that span, he ranks 54th in yards per route run and 57th in PFF receiving grade. He'll run about 71% of his routes against Marshon Lattimore and Justin Evans. Lattimore has allowed a 42.9% catch rate and 51.5 passer rating. Evans has been more pliable with a 64.3% catch rate and 84.2 passer rating in coverage. Despite the tough corner matchups, Jefferson is set to crush in Week 4. The Saints' move to zone will be their undoing. Among all wide receivers with five or more zone targets, Jefferson is the 4th-highest grade receiver per PFF. He ranks third in yards per route run against zone coverage with 48.1% of his target volume against zone. Jefferson is a top-five receiver this week.

Cook left last week's game with a dislocated shoulder. He has a long history of shoulder injuries, but early reports indicate he'll wear a harness in Week 4 and play. Cook has averaged 16.6 touches and 80 total yards this year. Before last week's abbreviated showing, he had seen a 14.5% target share with a 65.1% route run rate. Excluding his abysmal showing in Week 2, he's racked up 3.38 yards after contact per attempt and an 84.5 elusive rating. This season, those marks would rank 22nd and 16th among rushers with at least ten carries. New Orleans isn't the brick wall run defense of old. While they have allowed the ninth-lowest rushing success rate, they have also bled out the 11th-highest explosive run rate and are 15th in rushing yards per game. Cook will have to do most of his damage on the ground as the Saints are fourth in DVOA against receiving backs. If Cook plays, it's simple. You play him as a top-12 running back.

Over the last two weeks Thielen has shown signs of life as the WR31 in fantasy with an 18.3% target share (30.2% of the team's air yards). His usage has increased with Jefferson flopping, but his efficiency is still blah. In those two games he's only 47th in weighted opportunity with a 1.27 yards per route run. Thielen is a low-end WR3/high-end WR4 this week running about 63% of his routes against Lattimore and Bradley Roby. Roby has allowed a 45.5% catch rate and 62.9 passer rating.

If Cook is active, Mattison is not playable. Through three games as his backup, he's averaged seven touches, 31.3 total yards, and 31% of the snaps played. I'll be updating Mattison's outlook if Cook moves through the week and sounds more doubtful to play.

Despite his clutch touchdown and the big game last week, Osborn is only a low-end flex or WR5/6. Even with the big game last week, he's still only seen 12.4% of the targets and a 22.4% air yard share as the WR63 in fantasy. He'll run about 55% of his routes against Evans in the slot.

While Smith has seen his route run rate climb to 60.4% over the last two weeks with a 17.1% target share, with this matchup against the Saints, he's nothing more than a TE2. New Orleans has been tough against tight ends for multiple seasons, and 2022 isn't any different. They are third in DVOA against the position with the fourth-fewest receptions and second-lowest receiving yards allowed.