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Fantasy Football Player Notes

Week 13 Rankings
Dalvin Cook Note
Dalvin Cook photo 1. Dalvin Cook RB - MIN (vs . JAC)
He went down with what looked like a serious injury last week, but after missing a handful of plays, he returned. It's something to monitor as the week goes on, but for now, we'll assume he's good to go. Here's an odd stat I found while researching this game: Cook has accounted for just 58.1 percent of the Vikings' red zone rushing attempts. That's just the ninth-highest mark among running backs. We watched Nick Chubb rack up 144 yards on the ground against this Jaguars defense last week, which doesn't quite hit the 150-yard plateau that Cook has established this year. Fun fact: Cook has three 150-yard rushing games this year, while the rest of the NFL has seven of them. He's now broken 50 tackles on the ground, which is the most in the NFL, and that's despite missing some time. Even though the Jaguars have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, running backs have been getting theirs as well, averaging the fifth-most points per game. The Jaguars opponents run the ball 46.1 percent of the time bodes well for Cook, as the Vikings run the ball 48.5 percent of the time. The Vikings average 30.8 running back touches per game while the Jaguars see 29.9 running back touches per game. We could be looking at another 25-touch game for Cook against the team that allows the sixth-most fantasy points per weighted opportunity. Oddsmakers have opened this game with a 30.5-point team-implied total, which bodes well for all Vikings players, especially Cook. He's a smash-play in both redraft and DFS cash games, as he's now seen 13 targets over the last three weeks, raising that floor you need when paying top-dollar.
6 hours ago
Derrick Henry Note
Derrick Henry photo 2. Derrick Henry RB - TEN (vs . CLE)
I told you winter was coming. He leads the NFL with seven 100-yard games on the ground, while Dalvin Cook is the only other running back with more than four such performances. If the Titans wanted to, Henry could've rushed for 250-plus yards last week in the blowout win over the Colts. As we talked about last week, Henry gets better as the season goes on, and we're now in December, which is his time to shine. Of the production the Browns have allowed to skill-position players, running backs have only accounted for 27.9 percent of it, which is less than all but four other teams. Henry isn't involved much in the passing game, but it's worth noting that running backs have received just 15.6 percent of targets against the Browns, which is the fifth-lowest mark in football. Because of all that, the Browns have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, but here's the thing... they've faced the fourth-least amount of weighted opportunity to them. When you factor in efficiency, they've allowed the 15th-most fantasy points per weighted opportunity, so it's far from a must-avoid matchup. There have been three running backs who've finished with more than 16 carries against them (James Robinson, Josh Jacobs, James Conner), and each of them finished with at least 100 yards on the ground. Henry is the No. 1 player in fantasy football right now and should be in lineups every week. In DFS, I'd prefer to keep Henry as a tournament play considering his lack of involvement in the passing game, but I won't argue if you wanted to play him in cash.
8 hours ago
Davante Adams Note
Davante Adams photo 3. Davante Adams WR - GB (vs . PHI)
After Tyreek Hill's monster performance, Adams is a distant second in points on the season, though he's still averaging the most fantasy points per game. Adams hasn't finished a game with fewer than 18.1 PPR points since way back in Week 6, highlighting his dominance. Has he met his match? The Eagles have allowed a league-low five wide receivers hit 14.5-plus PPR points against them this year, which is the number it required to finish as a top-24 wide receiver in 2019. Some will likely scoff at that considering D.K. Metcalf just torched them for 10/177/0 on Monday night football, so why wouldn't Adams? I'm not saying he won't, but rather it's been a tough matchup for many, similar to the one he had last week against the Bears where he finished with a solid 6/61/1, but it wasn't the monster WR1 performance we've come to expect. Here's the part where you need to stop worrying about Adams. When you factor in the level of competition the Eagles have played, wide receivers are averaging the same number of points against them that they've averaged all year, which makes them the 15th-best matchup. It's the definition of an average matchup. Adams averages 25.4 PPR points per game, so... Plug him in as a WR1 and reap the rewards. Adams played against this scheme last year, and though Darius Slay wasn't on the team, Adams torched them for 10/180/0 despite needing to leave that game early with an injury.
5 hours ago
Tyreek Hill Note
Tyreek Hill photo 4. Tyreek Hill WR - KC (vs . DEN)
Holy explosion, Batman! Hill popped off for a ridiculous 57.9 PPR points in Week 12, which was the most by a wide receiver since Jerry Rice scored 60.9 PPR points in 1995. That performance by Hill was the sixth-highest number of all-time. For those wondering, Rice also holds the record for most PPR points in a game with 65.5 of them in 1990. Hill has now been targeted a ridiculous 47 times over the last three games, and even better, it hasn't affected his efficiency even a little bit, as he's recorded at least nine receptions and 102 yards in each game, while scoring six times. You cannot stop what is happening right now, though the Broncos will try. The last time Hill played them in Kansas City (Week 15 last year), he caught 5-of-7 targets for 67 yards and two touchdowns. They have been so much better than anyone realizes against wide receivers this year, allowing just 7.52 yards per target, which ranks third behind only the Rams and Titans. Will the Broncos shift their cornerbacks around for this game? If not, he'll see rookie Essang Bassey in the slot, who's easily been the one to target in coverage, as he's allowed 24-of-28 passing for 242 yards and a touchdown. Just play Hill everywhere, okay? With the targets he's getting, he can post record-breaking numbers.
5 hours ago
Nick Chubb Note
Nick Chubb photo 5. Nick Chubb RB - CLE (at TEN)
Chubb has averaged a league-high 4.43 yards after contact, which has accounted for 72.7 percent of his yardage. No other running back with more than 60 carries has averaged more than 3.70 yards after contact. Knowing that, it shouldn't come as a surprise that he ranks second in the NFL of 15-plus-yard runs. Think about that... he's missed four games and he still ranks just one 15-yard-run behind Derrick Henry. Not by coincidence, just 11 of his carries this year have accounted for 44.9 percent of his rushing totals. The Titans have allowed seven 20-plus yard runs this year, which is essentially toward the middle of the pack. They've allowed 4.29 yards per carry and 92.7 yards per game to running backs, so it's tough to say it's a highly-efficient matchup, but the fact that their opponents average a massive 68.0 plays per game have allowed enough volume to make them an above average matchup. Running backs have averaged 26.5 touches per game against them, which isn't the greatest when Hunt is getting 43 percent of the touches since Chubb's return to the lineup. The reason both have been somewhat successful is due to the fact that they've combined for 35.7 touches per game over the last three weeks. Even knocking that down to 30 for this game wouldn't be good for Chubb, who has very limited involvement in the passing game. He's one of the best 1-2 down backs in the league, but we have to take weighted volume into consideration, which knocks him into the low-end RB1 conversation. As for Hunt, he was highly touted as the pass-catching option out of this backfield, but he hasn't totaled more than three receptions since back in Week 1, and he hasn't topped 28 receiving yards all season. Despite having more than double the red zone carries that Chubb does (33 to 16), Hunt has four rushing touchdowns to Chubb's six. In terms of weighted opportunity, Hunt is on par with someone like Ronald Jones. He should be considered a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 who needs to start finding the end zone at a higher rate.
8 hours ago
James Robinson Note
James Robinson photo 6. James Robinson RB - JAC (at MIN)
It's remarkable what Robinson's been able to accomplish this season, especially considering the Jaguars offensive line is creating just 1.08 yards before contact, which ranks as the second-worst number in the NFL to only the Bears. It's pretty crazy; Robinson leads the league with 81.8 percent of his team's red zone carries, but his 27 red zone carries rank 12th among running backs. This team just isn't in scoring position very often. Then you add in this little tidbit: Of the carries their opponents have had inside the five-yard line, the Vikings have allowed a touchdown on a league-low 25 percent of them. It'll be interesting to see if Robinson gets any carries in that area of the field, because the Jaguars are the only team to convert all of their carries (there's only been four) inside the five-yard line into touchdowns. The good news is that running backs have averaged a robust 28.7 touches per game against the Vikings, so despite ranking as the fifth-toughest defense against running backs in efficiency, we should be able to count on 20-plus touches out of Robinson. You're starting Robinson as a low-end RB1 almost every week, and though this matchup isn't great, you shouldn't be fading him.
6 hours ago
Aaron Jones Note
Aaron Jones photo 7. Aaron Jones RB - GB (vs . PHI)
This timeshare is not going away and it's maddening for fantasy football managers. That's a 60/40 timeshare. We haven't seen Jones finish better than the RB9 in each of his last five games because he's sharing touches. We've seen him finish as the RB20 or worse in three of his last four games, which is something that didn't happen at all over hist first five games. You have to wonder if this timeshare is due to the calf injury he suffered back in Week 7. Just dial back expectations a bit, though touchdowns haven't gone his way like they were earlier in the year. Despite the Eagles being one of the better run defenses in the league, teams have chosen to run the ball 46.6 percent of the time against them, which ranks as the third-highest rate in the league. They haven't had much success, as the 3.37 yards per carry they've allowed highlights. There have been just two running backs who've topped 61 yards on the ground against them, though we should note that they have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns to running backs, which ranks as the fifth-most in the NFL. Through the air, running backs have only been targeted 15.2 percent of the time against the Eagles, which ranks as the second-lowest mark in the league, and why we've seen just three running backs top 24 receiving yards. They've also yet to allow a receiving touchdown to a running back. The matchup isn't great. Even when you adjust it for schedule, it's the 10th-worst matchup for running backs. Jones should remain in lineups as a low-end RB1 who will start finding the end zone before long. Williams is obviously the lesser part of this timeshare and should be in the high-end RB4 territory now that he's scored at least 8.5 PPR points in 8-of-10 games this year.
5 hours ago
Austin Ekeler Note
Austin Ekeler photo 8. Austin Ekeler RB - LAC (vs . NE)
The return to the lineup was a major success for Ekeler, as he saw a ridiculous 16 targets to go along with his 14 carries. This was one of the biggest weighted opportunity games in the NFL this year. In PPR formats, it was the most in a single game this year. Despite not finding the end zone, Ekeler still managed to rack up 23.9 PPR points, highlighting a floor that's ridiculously high. The Patriots opponents have chosen to run the ball a league-high 48.8 percent of the time, which is fine for Ekeler, as he's averaged 4.6 yards per carry on the year. Despite teams running the ball at a high rate, it hasn't amounted to much success, as they've allowed just five running backs score 11.5-plus PPR points against them, which is the number it took to hit top-24 numbers in 2019. The Saints are the only other team in the league who's allowed fewer than them through 12 weeks. They have allowed the 19th-most fantasy points to running backs, so the production against them has just been spread out. They're also allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per weighted opportunity, so you shouldn't shy away from using Ekeler as a low-end RB1 this week.
5 hours ago
D.K. Metcalf Note
D.K. Metcalf photo 9. D.K. Metcalf WR - SEA (vs . NYG)
We talk about this all the time, but there's a positive and negative when shadow cornerbacks are on the schedule. The downside is that the receiver is covered by the most talented cornerback on the other team. The positive is that he's often trusted in one-on-one coverage, which is something you cannot do against Metcalf, as he's too big, too strong, and too fast. Darius Slay is one of the better cornerbacks in football who was made to look slow on Monday night trying to keep up with Metcalf, who racked up 10 catches for 177 yards. The Giants have James Bradberry, who's done a solid job in coverage this year, allowing just 33-of-59 passing for 343 yards and three touchdowns in his coverage. Prior to seeing Metcalf, here were Slay's numbers in coverage: 35-for-48 for 387 yards and one touchdown. Will they trust him in one-on-one coverage? I think it's fair to say that Metcalf and Russell Wilson hope so. You're starting him as a WR1 every week and you better not be left without exposure in tournaments.
5 hours ago
Chris Carson Note
Chris Carson photo 10. Chris Carson RB - SEA (vs . NYG)
What in the heck happened on Monday night? Hyde out-snapped Carson 41-25 and out-touched him 17-10. In totally unrelated news, Hyde totaled 29 total yards on his 17 touches. -_- Please stop this as soon as possible, Mr. Pete Carroll. Fortunately, Carson was hyper-efficient totaling 59 yards on his 10 touches, including a powerful touchdown run that 95 percent of running backs wouldn't have scored on. This timeshare is a real issue because the Giants have only faced 19.4 running back carries per game, which is the third-fewest in the league. Those carries have netted 4.23 yards per carry, which is slightly below the league average, so they're not a team who's going to allow heavy production on the ground. It is worth noting that a league-high 67 percent of carries inside the five-yard line have resulted as touchdowns against the Giants. If we can get Carson back as the primary pass-catching running back, it' would be a good thing because that's where the production stems from against the Giants. Running backs have been targeted a league-high 22.8 percent of the time against the Giants, and that's led to 12.7 PPR points per game through the air alone, which ranks as the third-highest mark in football. There have been 11 running backs who've caught at least three passes, while seven of them have racked up 35-plus receiving yards. I'm willing to write-off last week's game as them easing Carson back into the lineup, because he's clearly the better running back. You should feel pretty confident playing him as a solid RB2 in this game. Hyde should still have a role but knowing that the Giants have faced just 25.4 running back touches per game, it's tough to see two starter-worthy options out of this backfield. Hyde should be in the high-end RB4 range in case last week wasn't just a fluke.
5 hours ago
David Montgomery Note
David Montgomery photo 11. David Montgomery RB - CHI (vs . DET)
Is Montgomery a plodder? Sure. Is it all his fault he doesn't have success? No. Montgomery averages 3.02 yards after contact, which ranks 22nd among the 64 running backs who've carried the ball at least 50 times. The Bears running backs are averaging a league-low 1.00 yards before contact. The good news is that the Lions have allowed ball carriers a massive 2.45 yards before contact this year, which ranks as the fourth-highest number in the league. Not only have the Lions allowed the most fantasy points per game to running backs, but even when you factor in the level of competition, they're the best matchup in the league based on schedule adjusted rankings, as running backs have averaged a league-high 8.3 more half-PPR points per game against the Lions than they do in non-Lions matchups. Of the fantasy production the Lions allow to skill-position players, we've watched running backs score 40.0 percent of those points, which is the second-highest mark in the NFL. Who's the only team who's allowed more? The team he played last week (Packers). It certainly doesn't hurt to know the Lions have allowed a league-high 14 rushing touchdowns and seven receiving touchdowns to running backs. That's 21 touchdowns they've allowed to running backs, while no other team in the league has allowed more than 16. There are just three teams in the league who allow more than 16.5 fantasy points per game on the ground to running backs, and the 19.3 points the Lions have allowed certainly qualifies as one of them. It's not just on the ground, as the Lions allow a massive 13.8 PPR points per game through the air alone to running backs, which ranks as the second-most in the NFL. The average RB1 performance in 2019 was 17.2 PPR points, which is a number that nine running backs have hit against the Lions. No other team has allowed more than seven such performances. Montgomery should be considered a high-end RB2 this week.
6 hours ago
Miles Sanders Note
Miles Sanders photo 12. Miles Sanders RB - PHI (at GB)
We knew that teams didn't run the ball much against the Seahawks, but six carries? He also saw just three targets while Boston Scott saw six of them. Sanders has run just four more pass routes than Scott over the last two weeks. So, if there's a negative gamescript, do we suddenly have to worry about Sanders' role? In this game against the Packers, they're nearly 10-point underdogs, which could be an issue. When Doug Pederson said he wanted this to be more of a timeshare, we figured it had to do with Jordan Howard, who is on the practice squad. Now onto the good stuff for Sanders. Of the production the Packers have allowed to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, we've watched running backs account for a massive 41.3 percent of it, which is the highest percentage in football. The only other team that's allowed more than 37.3 percent is the Lions. It's due to success on both the ground and through the air, as they've allowed 4.65 yards per carry and 11 touchdowns there, and they're not getting better. They just allowed David Montgomery to rush for 103 yards on 11 carries, which seems impossible. He was the four running back who's topped 100 yards on the ground against them. Running backs have also been targeted 22.1 percent of the time against the Packers, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league. It's not just volume, either, as the 7.42 yards per target that running backs have averaged against them is head and shoulders above everyone else in the league (closest is 6.96 YPT). Because of that, running backs have averaged a league-leading 14.4 PPR points per game through the air alone against the Packers. Sanders should be able to run all over them, but that requires Doug Pederson to actually run the ball. Plug Sanders in as a low-end RB1 and hope for the best. The matchup really does allow for him to have a big week. As for Scott, he obviously benefits from a negative gamescript, but trusting him as anything more than an RB4 would likely be a mistake, as he's seen just 20 total opportunities over the last three weeks combined (since Sanders came back to the lineup).
5 hours ago
A.J. Brown Note
A.J. Brown photo 13. A.J. Brown WR - TEN (vs . CLE)
He's a monster with the ball in his hands and he continually shows it off. He's scored in seven of his last eight games, and it seems like he's never actually in the end zone when he scores a touchdown, but rather breaking tackles and running after the catch to get them. He's still yet to see more than nine targets in a game this season, yet he's managed 12.4-plus PPR points in seven of his last eight games. His 7.22 targets per game ranks 28th among wide receivers. Now on to play the Browns who don't have a shadow cornerback and simply play sides. He will line up the most against Terrance Mitchell, who has allowed 37.8 percent of his yardage in coverage after the catch. There have been 91 cornerbacks who've seen 30-plus targets in coverage, and Mitchell ranks 33rd in yards after the catch allowed. There have been five wide receivers who've posted top-12 numbers against the Browns, including three receivers who posted 100-plus yards. Ideally, we'd see him lined up in the slot a bit more, but we'll take him wherever we can. Keep plugging him in as a high-end WR2.
8 hours ago
Adam Thielen Note
Adam Thielen photo 14. Adam Thielen WR - MIN (vs . JAC)
There were seemingly mixed results on Thielen's tests for COVID, so I'm guessing he was asymptomatic, which means he has to be out just five days. Because of that, he should be able to get cleared by the time this game happens but stay tuned for updates. Through 11 games, the Jaguars have allowed 14 different wide receivers finish with 14.5-plus PPR points, which is the average number it took to finish as a top-24 wide receiver in 2019. Only the Cowboys and Seahawks have allowed more. Keep in mind that's with their cornerbacks healthy for most of the year. Last week, they were down their top two starting cornerbacks, and because of that, the Browns receivers combined for 12/189/1 against them. C.J. Henderson is on IR for at least one more week, so he's out, while Sidney Jones can potentially return, though he's dealing with an Achilles injury. Whatever the case, Thielen is set up for a big day if he returns to the lineup, though this is starting to look more and more like a 1A/1B situation with him and Jefferson. Provided he's cleared, Thielen should be started as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2.
6 hours ago
Travis Kelce Note
Travis Kelce photo 15. Travis Kelce TE - KC (vs . DEN)
He has four 100-yard games this year. The rest of the tight ends in the NFL have combined for nine such games. I'm fairly certain he could stop playing right now and still finish with the most fantasy points among tight ends, as he has a comfy 55.7-point gap over Darren Waller with five games to go. The Broncos have allowed a massive 74.3 percent completion-rate to tight ends (4th-highest), but those receptions have gone for an average of just 9.73 yards (6th-lowest). So, are they just willing to allow the underneath stuff? That's why we've seen 10 tight ends total three-plus receptions against them. Kelce only finished with 3/31/0 in their first matchup, though that game was played in the snow and the Chiefs didn't throw the ball a whole lot. The previous time they played was in Week 15 of last year where Kelce torched them for 11/142/0, so it's clearly not Vic Fangio's scheme that slowed him in the first game. No tight end has topped 13.6 PPR points against the Broncos this year, so we do have to be mindful of that, especially when we know they've played against Kelce, Waller, Hunter Henry, Eric Ebron, Rob Gronkowski, Hayden Hurst, and Jonnu Smith. When you factor in their level of competition, they actually rank as the seventh-toughest matchup for tight ends. You're playing Kelce every week in redraft, but it might not be worth it to pay up for him in DFS cash lineups this week.
5 hours ago
D'Andre Swift Note
D'Andre Swift photo 16. D'Andre Swift RB - DET (at CHI)
He was held out once again with his concussion symptoms last week and based on what Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson did against the Texans (153 total yards, two touchdowns), you wonder what could've been. We should still be expecting Swift to take over as the lead back despite the solid performances by Peterson and Johnson, as we can't forget about Swift's breakout performance in Week 10 that netted him 21 of the 27 touches available to Lions running backs, as well as 149 total yards and a touchdown. The firing of Matt Patricia shouldn't change the offense too much. There's one big injury you need to pay attention to on the Bears this week, as defensive tackle Akiem Hicks is the centerpiece of the Bears defense, and if he were to remain out with his hamstring injury, it upgrades the entire offense. Without him last week, the Packers running backs combined for 163 yards and a touchdown on the ground. They've allowed a slightly below average 4.14 yards per carry to running backs and have also done a good job limiting production through the air to running backs, as the 7.2 PPR points per game through the air suggests. All in all, the Bears have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per weighted opportunity to running backs, behind only the Saints and Steelers. We've seen just one running back total 17.2-plus PPR points against the Bears this year, which is the mark it took to finish as an RB1 last year. While Swift is a must-play if he has the role he had pre-concussion, this matchup isn't nearly as good as the one the Lions backs had last week, though if Hicks is out, it's not as bad as it could be. Consider Swift a solid RB2 for now.
6 hours ago
Keenan Allen Note
Keenan Allen photo 17. Keenan Allen WR - LAC (vs . NE)
Another week goes by... another week Allen has seen 10-plus targets. He's also scored in seven of the last nine games, including each of the last five games. Because of all that, he's the WR4 in fantasy, behind only Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and D.K. Metcalf. Now, what happens when you mix a wide receiver who is essentially a lock for 10 targets against a defense that's allowed the second-most PPR points per target? The 2.03 PPR points per target the Patriots have allowed to wide receivers is behind only the Cowboys. Some will be concerned about Stephon Gilmore shadowing him, but you need to know that Allen plays 51 percent of his snaps in the slot, which is an area of the field that Gilmore doesn't typically travel. And to be fair, he really shouldn't be going in there, as he's allowed four catches for 80 yards and two touchdowns on just seven targets in slot coverage. It'll likely be Jonathan Jones on Allen most of the game, the cornerback who's allowed the fourth-most yardage in the slot this year. There have been eight wide receivers who've finished with 15-plus PPR points against the Patriots this year, and the best part is that none of them even required 10 targets to get there. Start Allen as a WR1 every week.
5 hours ago
Stefon Diggs Note
Stefon Diggs photo 18. Stefon Diggs WR - BUF (at SF)
Despite John Brown being out of the lineup, as well as the Chargers top cornerback Casey Hayward, Diggs finished with just seven catches for 39 yards in Week 12. It was just the second time all year where Diggs has finished outside the top-36 wide receivers, so we can't panic. It could be a coincidence, but both times he's finished outside of that range have been when Brown's been out of the lineup. The Bills are not going to be able to run the ball on the 49ers, so we should be expecting double-digit targets for Diggs in this contest. Production can be had in this matchup. It should be noted that the 49ers did get Richard Sherman back last week, which certainly doesn't hurt their defense. Diggs plays on both sides, though he will see Sherman the most. We don't have a big sample of targets against Sherman this year, though he did appear to be winding down at the end of last year. The 49ers have done a good job despite all the injuries they've dealt with, as the 7.84 yards per target they've allowed to receivers ranks as the 12th-lowest number in the league. But again, if Diggs gets those targets, he's going to perform just like the rest of those wide receivers did.
5 hours ago
Raheem Mostert Note
Raheem Mostert photo 19. Raheem Mostert RB - SF (vs . BUF)
We don't know the status of Tevin Coleman right now, but it's safe to say you're not trying to trust him, Jeff Wilson, or Jerick McKinnon in your lineup. Mostert played 29 snaps in his return to the lineup, which is pretty much in line with his season-long average, maybe a smidge less. The opportunity was there, as he totaled 16 carries and two targets, which netted just 43 yards in a tough matchup with the Rams, though he did find the end zone. Against the Bills, he should have a good shot to find the end zone, as they've allowed 16 rushing touchdowns on the season, which ranks third behind only the Raiders and Lions. Quarterbacks have gotten six of those touchdowns, but we know that Mullens won't be stealing anything. On top of the Bills allowing a touchdown every 19.0 carries, they've allowed 4.55 yards per carry, which ranks as the ninth-highest mark in the league. The Bills are also allowing an above-average 6.06 yards per target through the air to running backs, though they're one of just four teams left who haven't allowed a receiving touchdown to them. The bottom line is that this matchup plays into Mostert's strengths as a runner, and he should be in lineups as a mid-tier RB2.
5 hours ago
Antonio Gibson Note
Antonio Gibson photo 20. Antonio Gibson RB - WAS (at PIT)
It's happening. Gibson is getting the role we'd hoped he would as the season went on, as he played a career-high 45 snaps on Thanksgiving. He rewarded that trust with 136 total yards and three touchdowns against the Cowboys. Sure, Peyton Barber got 11 carries as well, but the game was out of reach rather quickly. We knew that matchup didn't favor McKissic's role, but he was still on the field for 28 snaps. Gamescript is still the biggest factor in determining how valuable each player will be. Opponents have put just 17.1 points per game up on the scoreboard against the Steelers, which is not what you want to see from a low-scoring offense like Washington. That has clearly affected the running backs and their production, as the Steelers have allowed the second-fewest PPR points per game to them (17.0 per game). Despite the Steelers winning every single one of their games and being ahead most of the time, running backs aren't targeted much against them. They have faced a league-low 14.8 percent of targets to the running back position, which doesn't bode well for Gibson or McKissic, though Smith has targeted running backs a ton. Washington is big underdogs in this game, right? This doesn't bode well for Gibson, who's really padded his stats in two wins over the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Steelers have allowed just one top-12 running back since the start of last year. Gibson had his breakout party last week, but he's likely to disappoint in this game. McKissic could have another one of his more relevant fantasy games here, though the lack of targets to running backs doesn't look great for him. But he's been on the field much more in the losses that Washington has had, so he can be considered a flex/high-end RB4 in this contest.
6 hours ago
Calvin Ridley Note
Calvin Ridley photo 21. Calvin Ridley WR - ATL (vs . NO)
Despite Matt Ryan throwing for just 185 yards last week, Ridley was able to get his, finishing with 6/50/1 on nine targets. Ridley has played nine full games this year and has finished with 14-plus PPR points in eight of them, giving him a top-24 seemingly every week, while we've also seen him post 17-plus PPR points in six of them, highlighting WR1 appeal. The matchup against the Saints is far from great, as they have two top-tier cornerbacks on the perimeter in Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins. Ridley was able to wiggle his way to five catches for 90 yards against them in Week 11, though it's worth noting that Lattimore was out for that game. There have been nine wide receivers who've finished as top-24 options against them, but if Julio Jones returns to the lineup, that would make things a bit trickier. Jenkins is the cornerback Ridley will see the most of and he's been pretty dang good this year, allowing just 27-of-50 passing for 342 yards and one touchdown in his coverage. Ridley should be considered a high-end WR2 if Jones returns but would creep into the WR1 conversation if Jones has to miss another game.
5 hours ago
Alvin Kamara Note
Alvin Kamara photo 22. Alvin Kamara RB - NO (at ATL)
We're officially panicked with Kamara now that we've seen just three targets over the last two games with Hill under center. Some are wondering if Murray is worth more with Hill under center considering his production in last week's game, though I'm not there just yet. That game was a blowout and keeping Kamara fresh makes a lot of sense. Still, Kamara's value has taken quite the hit, as his weighted opportunity is comparable to guys like Melvin Gordon and Kareem Hunt. The Falcons allow a lot of fantasy production, right? Unfortunately, running backs haven't accounted for too much of it. They've allowed a league-low 25.0 percent of skill-player production go to running backs, while no other team in the league is below 26.6 percent. Teams have realized it's more profitable to throw the ball against the Falcons, and that's why you've seen them face a league-low 17.8 carries per game. That's turned into just 70.0 rushing yards and 0.36 rushing touchdowns per game to running backs. For those doing the math at home, that's just 8.55 fantasy points per game on the ground, which is the lowest mark in the league. There have been six running backs who've totaled at least 33 yards through the air against them, so that's where you'd like to see production. How good have the Falcons been against running backs as a whole? Well, they've allowed just six of them to hit 11.5 PPR points this year, which is tied for the third-fewest in the league. That number is significant because it's the average number of points running backs needed to finish as a top-24 running back in 2019. Because of his decrease workload in the passing game, Kamara is more of a high-end RB2 at this point in time who's in a tough spot here. Don't forget he totaled just 45 yards on 13 carries against them just two weeks ago, though a touchdown salvaged his fantasy day. As for Murray, this matchup is brutal for his skill set, but he has fantasy value if he keeps getting the 12-plus carries he's gotten in the two games with Hill. Murray should be considered a mid-tier RB3 that you don't have to play in this game.
6 hours ago
Josh Jacobs Note
Josh Jacobs photo 23. Josh Jacobs RB - LV (at NYJ)
We talked about Jacobs' matchup last week and how it was tougher than most expected, but for him to total just 10 touches was something no one could've predicted. He hurt his ankle late in the third quarter, which knocked him out of the game, but he was mostly inefficient in that game. He will likely be questionable for this game, so pay attention to his status throughout the week. He now has 206 carries on the season, but just four of those carries have gone for 15-plus yards, so you kind of need him to get that high volume. Fortunately, he gets the Jets this week, who've allowed the fifth-most touches per game (29.4) to running backs. The downside is that they've allowed just 1.16 yards before contact to ball carriers, which ranks as the fourth-lowest mark in the league. We talked about it being necessary for Jacobs to get some of the passing game work last week, and though that didn't really happen, it helps to know the Jets have watched running backs get targeted 21.9 percent of the time against them, which is tied for the fourth-highest mark in the league. All in all, the Jets have faced the second-most weighted opportunity to running backs this year, behind only the Texans. To see they've allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to them should be considered an accomplishment, as they've been the 11th-toughest matchup for running backs from an efficiency standpoint. But again, that volume has allowed nine running backs to finish with top-24 numbers against them. If he practices in full at some point, he should be considered a high-end RB2 this week. If he doesn't, this is likely to be more of a timeshare between him and Booker, downgrading him into mid-to-low-end RB2 territory. If Jacobs were to sit this game entirely, Booker could be played as a middling RB2 who should be locked into 15-plus touches, and maybe even 20 of them.
8 hours ago
Justin Jefferson Note
Justin Jefferson photo 24. Justin Jefferson WR - MIN (vs . JAC)
Coming into Week 12, he led the NFL averaging 3.16 yards per route run. Oddly enough, he went down to 2.91 after his Week 12 performance. Still, there are just three receivers who've averaged more than 2.48 yards in that category and their names are Davante Adams and Julio Jones. Jefferson is a legit stud. He's tied with Tyreek Hill for the league with 12 receptions that have gone for 20-plus yards. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have allowed 39 pass plays of 20-plus yards, which ranks as the sixth-most in football. Targets haven't always been the easiest thing to come by for Jefferson in this run-first offense, so it helps to know the Jaguars have allowed 9.32 yards per target to wide receivers, which ranks second to only the Falcons. As mentioned in the Thielen notes, the Jaguars were without both starting cornerbacks last week, and they're not a team with good cornerback depth. C.J. Henderson will remain out, while Sidney Jones will likely be questionable. Their replacements Luq Barcoo and Josiah Scott combined to allow 8-of-10 passing for 111 yards and a touchdown in their coverage. Jefferson is someone you're playing as a WR2 every week at this point, as he's a budding superstar who might have just as much value as Thielen moving forward.
6 hours ago
J.K. Dobbins Note
J.K. Dobbins photo 25. J.K. Dobbins RB - BAL (vs . DAL)
Ravens running backs are averaging 1.68 yards before contact, which is the second-highest number in the league, behind only the Cardinals. It would appear having a mobile quarterback helps. When you combined this with the fact that the Cowboys have allowed the most yards before contact, you have the recipe for major success. The only team who's allowed more yards on the ground than the Cowboys are the Texans. No other team is within 150 yards of those two teams. It surely helps that running backs have been able to accumulate 27.1 rushing attempts per game against them, which is enough to feel comfortable with a timeshare, which is something that may be a thing of the past if Dobbins returns to the role he had in Week 10. If you look at production on the ground alone, the Cowboys have allowed 215.8 fantasy points, or 19.6 points per game. They are one of just three teams who've allowed more than 16.5 points per game on the ground. Most of this stems from the fact that their opponents have chosen to run the ball 48.4 percent of the time (2nd-most), though efficiency has been there, too. We know the Ravens running backs aren't targeted much in the passing game, but it's even less likely they are against the Cowboys, who've seen a running back target on just 15.5 percent of pass attempts, tied for the third-lowest mark in the league. Even when they get targeted, it hasn't amounted to much, as the Cowboys have allowed a league-low 5.5 PPR points per game through the air to running backs. When you look at explosive performances against teams, I require 20-plus PPR points for running backs and wide receviers and 15-plus PPR points for tight ends. The Cowboys have allowed a league-high 15 explosive performances this year, so when you think about the Ravens, you want to find that gem for this game. I'm comfortable playing Dobbins as an RB2 this week who comes with top-five upside if he returns to his workhorse role. Edwards can fill an RB4 role, as it appeared like he passed Mark Ingram on the depth chart a few weeks ago.
6 hours ago
Terry McLaurin Note
Terry McLaurin photo 26. Terry McLaurin WR - WAS (at PIT)
We watched Alex Smith throw just 26 passes last week, but we also watched McLaurin get 34.6 percent of them. He kept his streak of seven-plus targets going despite the blowout win over the Cowboys. He's also been able to finish with at least 61 yards in 10-of-11 games, including seven games with seven-plus receptions. There's likely to be a bit more pass attempts against the Steelers this week. I understand that there's not much production to go around against the Steelers, but of the production they do allow to skill-position players, wide receivers make up for 59.1 percent of it, which is the second-most in the NFL behind only the Seahawks. They are the only teams in the NFL who have a percentage higher than 55.7 percent. It's not a coincidence that Marquise Brown had his best game of the year last week, though much of his production came on one play. According to Football Outsiders' DVOA, the Steelers rank as the 13th-best matchup for No. 1 wide receivers. There have been 10 wide receivers who've finished with 15-plus PPR points against them, so while it's not an ideal matchup, it's not the worst, either. McLaurin should remain in lineups as a high-end WR2.
6 hours ago
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Note
Clyde Edwards-Helaire photo 27. Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB - KC (vs . DEN)
I tried warning you about his matchup last week, and Edwards-Helaire completely bombed, finishing with a career-low 4.9 PPR points against the Bucs. When you're seeing the workload he is, those games are going to happen. Over the last five weeks with Bell in the lineup, Edwards-Helaire has averaged 8.8 carries and 3.0 targets per game. Didn't realize it was that low, did you? He's averaging a great 4.58 yards per carry on the year, so that's not the issue. This week's matchup could be one for you to like him a bit more, though. Despite the Broncos being one of the better pass defenses in the league, the Chiefs have an implied team total of 31.3 points, which bodes extremely well for Edwards-Helaire. The Broncos lost interior lineman Mike Purcell on the first drive of Week 7. They haven't been able to stop the run lately, and those eight touchdowns don't even count Taysom Hill's two rushing touchdowns last week. Opponents have averaged 27.2 carries per game against them over that time, which should allow Edwards-Helaire to get back into the 12-15 carry range for this game, which should be enough for him to get into RB2 territory. The Broncos have allowed just 1.28 PPR points per target to running backs, which ranks as the fourth-lowest mark in the league, so don't count on too much production there. I'd play Edwards-Helaire as a solid RB2 this week who has top-five upside in this matchup, though he needs more work. Bell hasn't topped nine touches in a Chiefs uniform, and based on his lack of efficiency, we shouldn't expect his touches to increase. He's just an RB4/handcuff.
5 hours ago
Tyler Lockett Note
Tyler Lockett photo 28. Tyler Lockett WR - SEA (vs . NYG)
Has there been a more frustrating player to own than Lockett this year? He's taken a backseat to the D.K. Metcalf show, and has finished outside the top-30 wide receivers in six of his last eight games. And we should note that both games he did finish inside that territory were against the Cardinals. The Giants have been the 16th-best schedule adjusted matchup for wide receivers, though it's important to note that Football Outsiders has the Giants ranked as the No. 4 DVOA defense against No. 1 receivers, but they rank as the No. 22 and No. 32 defense against No. 2 and No. 3 receivers. Clearly, Lockett is no longer the No. 1 option on the Seahawks. He's going to see a lot of fourth-round rookie Darnay Holmes in the slot, which should go well for Lockett. Of the top four performances the Giants have allowed to wide receivers this year, three of them were to slot-heavy receivers (JuJu Smith-Schuster, CeeDee Lamb, and Cooper Kupp). If the Giants use Bradberry on Metcalf and bracket him with a safety, Lockett could have one of his "boom" performances, so keep him in lineups as a WR2 with upside.
5 hours ago
DeVante Parker Note
DeVante Parker photo 29. DeVante Parker WR - MIA (vs . CIN)
Once we found out that Fitzpatrick was starting last week, Parker should've been locked into starting lineups. He saw a season-high 14 targets that netted 8/119/0 against the dreadful Jets secondary. The Dolphins trust Fitzpatrick to throw a lot more than they do Tagovailoa, so you don't have to panic so much about his efficiency. The matchup against the Bengals certainly isn't a bad one, as they've allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, including a solid 1.88 PPR points per target. We are likely to see a bit of a shadow matchup with William Jackson, who's been a bit hit-or-miss in coverage this year while allowing just a 56 percent catch-rate, but when he does allow a completion, it goes for 14.8 yards a pop. He's also allowed a touchdown every 16.7 targets, which is hardly shutdown material. Of the 19 wide receivers who've seen six-plus targets against the Bengals, 16 of them have finished as the WR38 or better, which presents a great floor for Parker. 10 of those receivers finished as the WR20 or better, providing with him with a ceiling as well. He should be in lineups as a low-end WR2 who has a WR3-type floor with Fitzpatrick under center.
6 hours ago
Kareem Hunt Note
Kareem Hunt photo 30. Kareem Hunt RB - CLE (at TEN)
Chubb has averaged a league-high 4.43 yards after contact, which has accounted for 72.7 percent of his yardage. No other running back with more than 60 carries has averaged more than 3.70 yards after contact. Knowing that, it shouldn't come as a surprise that he ranks second in the NFL of 15-plus-yard runs. Think about that... he's missed four games and he still ranks just one 15-yard-run behind Derrick Henry. Not by coincidence, just 11 of his carries this year have accounted for 44.9 percent of his rushing totals. The Titans have allowed seven 20-plus yard runs this year, which is essentially toward the middle of the pack. They've allowed 4.29 yards per carry and 92.7 yards per game to running backs, so it's tough to say it's a highly-efficient matchup, but the fact that their opponents average a massive 68.0 plays per game have allowed enough volume to make them an above average matchup. Running backs have averaged 26.5 touches per game against them, which isn't the greatest when Hunt is getting 43 percent of the touches since Chubb's return to the lineup. The reason both have been somewhat successful is due to the fact that they've combined for 35.7 touches per game over the last three weeks. Even knocking that down to 30 for this game wouldn't be good for Chubb, who has very limited involvement in the passing game. He's one of the best 1-2 down backs in the league, but we have to take weighted volume into consideration, which knocks him into the low-end RB1 conversation. As for Hunt, he was highly touted as the pass-catching option out of this backfield, but he hasn't totaled more than three receptions since back in Week 1, and he hasn't topped 28 receiving yards all season. Despite having more than double the red zone carries that Chubb does (33 to 16), Hunt has four rushing touchdowns to Chubb's six. In terms of weighted opportunity, Hunt is on par with someone like Ronald Jones. He should be considered a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 who needs to start finding the end zone at a higher rate.
8 hours ago
DeAndre Hopkins Note
DeAndre Hopkins photo 31. DeAndre Hopkins WR - ARI (vs . LAR)
Weeks 11 and 12 was the first time all season where Hopkins finished outside the top-12 wide receivers in back-to-back weeks in a Cardinals uniform. He's now finished with 55 or less yards in three of his last four games, though there were a couple tough shadow matchups in there. Unfortunately, Week 13 won't be any different. When playing against the Rams, wide receivers have scored 6.7 fewer PPR points per game against the Rams than they do on average, making it the second-worst matchup when you adjust for schedule. It surely doesn't help wide receivers knowing they've seen just 52.3 percent of the targets thrown, which is the lowest percentage in the NFL. The Rams have allowed just six wide receiver touchdowns all season, and that's over a span of 207 targets. That's not it, either. They've allowed just 7.24 yards per target to receivers, which is the league-low (closest team is at 7.51). If the Cardinals want to move the ball, they'll have to do it via the short passing game, as the Rams have allowed a league-low 10.94 yards per reception. Last year, the average top-12 wide receiver performance took 19.7 PPR points, which is a number the Rams have allowed just once this season, and it was to Deebo Samuel last week, who saw 13 targets and was continually getting the ball behind the line of scrimmage. Hopkins is going to see Jalen Ramsey in coverage, which has been a chore for almost every receiver this year. I'd feel better about Hopkins if we knew Murray were healthy, but it doesn't seem like he is, which makes Hopkins just a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 this week.
5 hours ago
Allen Robinson II Note
Allen Robinson II photo 32. Allen Robinson II WR - CHI (vs . DET)
A lot of time, social media screams about something that makes no sense, but when it comes to the Bears targeting Robinson, they have it right. Here are the Bears' QB Rating when targeting each receiver: Robinson 90.5, Mooney 74.8, Miller 69.9. Despite playing for a team that's averaging just 19.6 points per game (29th), Robinson sits as the No. 10 wide receiver on the season in PPR formats. The Lions have been abused by the run, sure, but they've also allowed a massive 9.30 yards per target to wide receivers, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league. Robinson has had their number over the last few years, finishing with 5/74/0, 8/86/1, and 6/86/0 in their last three games, and that's not even including his 6/133/2 line back in 2018 against the same scheme. The cornerback the Lions have had shadowing No. 1 receivers is Desmond Trufant, who suffered a hamstring injury on Thanksgiving, which means he's unlikely to play here. They were already without first-rounder Jeff Okudah, so they're starting to thin out quite a bit. Even with those guys healthy for most of the year, the Lions have allowed 18 wide receivers to finish as top-36 options against them, including six who scored 20-plus PPR points. Robinson should be locked into lineups as a WR1 who has more scoring opportunities with Trubisky under center.
6 hours ago
Ezekiel Elliott Note
Ezekiel Elliott photo 33. Ezekiel Elliott RB - DAL (at BAL)
The loss of Dak Prescott was the start of his nightmare, but it's only gotten worse, losing left tackle Tyron Smith, and then both Zack Martin and Cam Erving in the first quarter of the Thanksgiving game. At some point, it doesn't even matter who the running back is; they're going to struggle playing behind backups. The only good news is that he leads the NFL with 19 carries inside the five-yard line. Elliott has now finished with fewer than 55 rushing yards in six of the last nine games. He's also failed to record more than 18 receiving yards in six of the last seven games. Did I mention that he's scored one touchdown over his last six games? It's bad, guys. And now he has to go on the road to play against the Ravens. They've been without interior linemen Brandon Williams and Calais Campbell over the last couple weeks, which has led to them allowing a bit more production, but they've still allowed just the 11th-fewest fantasy points to running backs. With that being said, there have been eight running backs who've seen at least 12 carries against the Ravens, and each of them have finished as top-24 running backs, including Damien Harris. I suppose the 4.34 yards per carry they've allowed isn't anything to be scared of when it comes to Elliott's floor. Because of that, you can keep Elliott in lineups as an RB2, albeit a low-end RB2.
6 hours ago
Robert Woods Note
Robert Woods photo 34. Robert Woods WR - LAR (at ARI)
Have we watched a shift in the offensive philosophy for the Rams over the last few weeks? Sean McVay has done this multiple times in his coaching career, so when we see Woods get 27 targets over the last two weeks after averaging just 6.7 targets per game in the first nine games, we have to pay attention. Woods has also totaled 20 carries on the year, which provide that little bit of extra value. Wide receivers have seen a 61.7 percent target share against the Cardinals, which is the third-highest number in the league, so that bodes well for Woods, who crushed this team for 13/172/0 in their first meeting last year, and then 7/67/1 in the second one. They did add Dre Kirkpatrick this offseason, and he's been an upgrade on the perimeter, allowing 45-of-63 passing for 486 yards and two touchdowns. Still, we've watched them allow 10 receivers to finish as top-24 options this year. It is worth noting that eight of them saw at least nine targets, which is seemingly a very reachable number for Woods. He should be in lineups as a solid high-floor WR2.
5 hours ago
Wayne Gallman Note
Wayne Gallman photo 35. Wayne Gallman RB - NYG (at SEA)
In case you haven't realized it, Gallman has been a stud over the last five games. He's finished as a top-16 running back in each of those games, which included matchups with the Eagles (twice), Bucs, and Football Team. With McCoy under center, I'm sure the Giants would prefer to give the ball to Gallman a ton in this game, but Seahawks opponents have run the ball against them a league-low 33.7 percent of the time. It's kind of crazy to see, but the Giants running backs are averaging the second-most yards before contact, behind only the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are allowing 2.50 yards before contact to ball carriers, which is the second-highest mark in the league. So, when Gallman actually gets carries, he should be relatively efficient, though volume concerns are real. Just one running back has topped 65 yards on the ground against the Seahawks this year, which is due to there being just two running backs who've totaled more than 14 carries. Running backs have averaged just 24.2 touches per game against the Seahawks, but the good part is that Gallman has totaled 72 percent of the Giants running back touches over the last two games, so we should still get 15-18 touches for him. The Seahawks have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per weighted opportunity, which factors in targets, so Gallman needs to get some passing-down work. Gallman did run two more routes than Dion Lewis last week, which is certainly a positive. It's not a great matchup like last week, but Gallman has done enough to stay in lineups as an RB2.
5 hours ago
Brandin Cooks Note
Brandin Cooks photo 36. Brandin Cooks WR - HOU (vs . IND)
Going back to the time where Bill O'Brien was fired, Cooks has become an integral part of this offense, averaging 8.14 targets per game, including at least five targets in every game. Outside of the wind/rain game against the Browns, he's totaled at least 60 yards in every one of those games. To know that he's done this while Will Fuller has been a WR1, and that Deshaun Watson has failed to throw the ball 40 times in a game is pretty remarkable. But what changes now that Fuller is out for the year? Do teams double Cooks? Do they bracket him? You'd be surprised at how hard it is to do that with a wide receiver who moves around as much as Cooks, who plays 43 percent of his snaps at RWR, 29 percent at LWR, and 28 percent of his snaps in the slot. The Colts haven't been a matchup to flat out attack with wide receivers, as they've allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to them. However, the good news for Cooks is that they've allowed 14.16 yards per reception, which is the second-highest mark in football. On top of that, their starting safety Khari Willis was injured during their Week 12 game. Meanwhile, Deshaun Watson has completed 21 passes that've gone 20-plus yards down the field, which ranks as the fourth-most in football. It's not a great spot for Cooks to straight up dominate, as there have been just four wide receivers who've totaled more than five receptions against the Colts. Still, you're starting a wide receiver who just might see double-digit targets no matter what, so put him in lineups as a WR2.
6 hours ago
Kenyan Drake Note
Kenyan Drake photo 37. Kenyan Drake RB - ARI (vs . LAR)
I remember earlier in the year where I was feeling bad about recommending Drake as an early second-round pick. The process seemed right, and he was getting tons of work, but he just wasn't performing. He's starting to look like the player I thought he'd be when the season started. Despite missing a game in that stretch, Drake has been the RB8 since the start of Week 5. Here's a crazy stat that not many people would think to be true, but the Cardinals running backs are averaging more yards before contact (1.84 yards) than any other team. The Rams haven't been so kind to ball carriers, as they've allowed just 1.24 yards before contact, which is the 11th-fewest in the NFL. They've allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per weighted opportunity to running backs, behind only the Saints, Steelers, and Bears. Those are three teams you don't want to see on your schedule for running backs. What helps Drake is that with Kyler Murray dealing with his shoulder injury, he's getting practically all the carries inside the five-yard line (had five in Week 12 alone), as Edmonds has received just one carry inside the 10-yard line all year. Touchdowns will be important, as there's been just two running backs who've topped 71 yards on the ground against the Rams all year, and both backs saw 20-plus carries. The 5.33 yards per target they've allowed to running backs ranks as the 14th-lowest mark in the league, so that's where some production can be had, and it helps to know Drake has seen nine targets over the last two games (had 11 in the previous eight games). Drake should be considered a somewhat touchdown-dependent low-end RB2 this week in a tough matchup. As for Edmonds, he's more of a high-end RB4 who's still getting 8-12 opportunities per game, though they're likely to be inefficient in this matchup.
5 hours ago
Cooper Kupp Note
Cooper Kupp photo 38. Cooper Kupp WR - LAR (at ARI)
We've watched Kupp's targets vary anywhere from five to 20 targets this season, which has made him a bit inconsistent to rely on as a WR2, but he's still reached double-digit PPR points in 8-of-11 games, giving him a decent floor, and we've seen his upside (three 100-yard games this year). Of the fantasy production the Cardinals allow to opposing skill-position players, wide receivers make up 55.7 percent of it, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league. The best news for Kupp this week is that the three biggest performances the Cardinals have allowed this year were slot-heavy receivers, as Tyler Lockett (15/200/3), Cole Beasley (11/109/1), and Jamison Crowder (8/116/1) all finished as top-seven options against them, and that's not even including Lockett's follow-up performance where he totaled 9/67/1. The Cardinals have put Byron Murphy into the slot, which is not his natural position, and he's struggled a bit in that role. He's also the weakest link in the Cardinals secondary, so we should expect Kupp to get peppered with targets in this game. Go ahead and start him as a solid WR2.
5 hours ago
Diontae Johnson Note
Diontae Johnson photo 39. Diontae Johnson WR - PIT (vs . WAS)
It wasn't the greatest game for Johnson, as he had two clear drops against the Ravens, but the one that matters stayed consistent. He saw a team-high 13 targets, bringing his total over the last four games to an astonishing 50 targets, or 12.5 per game. This should be interesting to see how the Steelers receivers fare in this matchup, as the Football Team has allowed just 1.63 PPR points per target to wide receivers, which is the fifth-lowest mark in the league. If you were to look at the combined performances of their opponent's WR1, WR2, WR3, and TE1 totals against them, you'd see that they have not combined to score more than 48.3 PPR points in any of their last 10 games. The competition has not been top notch, but that's an impressive stretch for any team against any opponent. The only teams who've allowed fewer points per game to skill-position players are the 49ers, Rams, and Steelers. Even adjusting for schedule, this is the fourth-toughest matchup in football, as opposing wide receivers have averaged 4.9 fewer PPR points against them than they've averaged on the year. Still, Johnson is continually seeing double-digit targets, which make him a must-start. If we look at the five wide receivers who've had nine-plus targets against Washington, four of them finished as top-24 options with three of them scoring 17.5-plus PPR points. Johnson isn't a can't-miss play this week, but he's worthy of a mid-to-low-end WR2 start.
6 hours ago
Jonathan Taylor Note
Jonathan Taylor photo 40. Jonathan Taylor RB - IND (at HOU)
The Colts are supposed to get Taylor back this week, which is something they seem to need more than they know. With him out, Hines and Jordan Wilkins combined for just 51 yards on 16 carries against the Titans, though it didn't help they were without starting center Ryan Kelly (who they hope to get back this week). Fun fact: Hines doesn't have a single carry of 15-plus yards this year. There's not a running back who's seen as many carries as him (61) without one. Taylor should be happy to return to this matchup against the Texans, as its' arguably the best in the league for his skill set. We know there are a lot of fantasy points up for grabs against the Texans, right? Well, of the production they've allowed to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, we've watched running backs account for 37.3 percent of it, which is the third-highest mark in the league. They've now allowed a league-high 1,564 yards on the ground to running backs, which is more than 23 teams have allowed to running backs as a whole (receiving included). When you look at strictly production on the ground, the Texans have allowed a league-high 240.4 fantasy points. No other team has allowed more than 215.8 of them. It's not the competition that's made them look bad, either. Running backs average 6.3 more half-PPR points per game against the Texans than they do versus their season average; that ranks as the second-most in the league. All-in-all, the Texans have faced more weighted volume to running backs than any other team in the league. That's led to them allowing a league-high 185.7 total yards per game to the position. The average top-24 running back performance in 2019 required 11.5 PPR points. That's a number that a league-high 14 running backs have hit against the Texans. This is your reminder that they've played just 11 games. Taylor is never a full 100 percent trust under Frank Reich, but he should be trusted enough to be played as a low-end RB2 with upside, because the last time we saw him on the field, he netted a massive 26 touches. Let's just hope Jacoby Brissett getting a few goal-line touches was due to Taylor being out, and not a regular thing moving forward. Production is there through the air as well for running backs in this matchup, as seven different backs have totaled 35-plus receiving yards, which bodes well for Hines' role. He should remain in the RB3 conversation, particularly in PPR formats.
6 hours ago
Melvin Gordon III Note
Melvin Gordon III photo 41. Melvin Gordon III RB - DEN (at KC)
Despite just 82 carries (35th among running backs), Lindsay ranks fifth in the NFL with eight 15-plus yard runs. Those long runs account for most of his production this year. In fact, those eight runs make up 46.4 percent of his rushing yardage this year. Sadly, he looks likely to miss this game. That would put Gordon back in the driver's seat. In the three games without Lindsay in the lineup earlier this season, Gordon had 21, 12, and 25 touches. The 12-touch game came against the Bucs, so it was understandable. If you're looking for production against the Chiefs, the running back position is a good place to look. Of the production they've allowed to skill-position players, running backs have accounted for 34.9 percent of it, which ranks as the fifth-highest percentage in the league. Running backs have accumulated 27.8 touches per game against them, and those touches have netted solid fantasy production. The Chiefs rank right around the league average in efficiency against running backs, which explains why there have been nine running backs who've finished as the RB25 or better against them despite the negative gamescripts. Here's a great thing for Gordon's floor: There's been no running back who's totaled more than 12 touches and finished with fewer than 10 PPR points against them. Damien Harris was the only one who didn't finish as a top-25 option in that group, but he still posted 100 yards on his 17 carries, which is hardly a bad game. Gordon himself saw 19 touches against them back in Week 7 where he finished with 80 total yards and a touchdown. If Lindsay is out of the lineup, Gordon should be considered a solid RB2 for this game who should net 15-plus touches. If Lindsay plays, I'd still prefer Gordon, but he'd be more of a high-end RB3 while Lindsay would be a risky low-end RB3.
5 hours ago
Chase Claypool Note
Chase Claypool photo 42. Chase Claypool WR - PIT (vs . WAS)
He hasn't seen "Diontae Johnson-type targets" over the last five weeks, but he's close. He's now seen at least eight targets in five straight games but hasn't finished with more than 69 yards in any of those games, making him a bit touchdown-dependent. Washington has allowed just 10 wide receiver touchdowns on the year, which doesn't appear great. Neither does the fact that they've allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to them. This should get interesting because the Steelers rank as the No. 1 team in wide receiver points per game. He'll see veteran Ronald Darby for much of the contest, who's arguably been their weakest link, allowing 38-of-64 passing for 581 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage. While the 59.4 percent catch-rate isn't ideal, the 15.29 yards per reception is certainly a nice sight for Claypool's deep ball potential. He hasn't hit on one recently, but Claypool does lead the team with 19 deep-ball targets this year. He should be treated as a low-end WR2 who's worth the risk of the tough matchup.
6 hours ago
Darren Waller Note
Darren Waller photo 43. Darren Waller TE - LV (at NYJ)
It was hardly the week we hoped it'd be for Waller last week, as Carr's incompetence had a butterfly throughout the offense. If you were to tell me Waller was going to get seven targets against the Falcons, I'd play him all over again. Not only does he rank second in targets (90) among tight ends, but he leads the NFL in red zone targets (17). We get another crack at elite production this week, as the Jets have allowed 2.24 PPR points per target to the position, which ranks third behind only the Jaguars and Falcons. Both Travis Kelce and Jordan Reed were able to post 24-plus PPR points against them this year, highlighting the ceiling, while six other tight ends have finished as the TE14 or better against them. Oh, and those red zone targets that Waller has been getting... yeah, the Jets have allowed a league-high nine touchdowns to tight ends, including one every 8.1 targets, which is more often than any other team in the league. Start Waller as the elite TE1 he is and forgive his hiccup in Week 12.
8 hours ago
Michael Thomas Note
Michael Thomas photo 44. Michael Thomas WR - NO (at ATL)
The good news is that Thomas has seen 18 of Hill's 39 pass attempts over the last two games, which amounts to a massive 46.2 percent target share. The bad news is that he's finished with just 13 receptions for 154 yards and no touchdowns with that incredible target share. If the Saints are going to throw the ball just 20 times per game, that's going to be an issue for any pass catcher. The last time they played the Falcons, we watched Thomas rack up nine catches for 104 yards on 12 targets, and he even left some on the table with a rare drop that would've been a 20-plus yard reception. Oddly enough, his 8.67 yards per target in that game was lower than the Falcons have allowed to wide receivers this year. That's right, they've allowed a massive 9.46 yards per target to wide receivers on the season, which is the most in the NFL. They simply don't have the talent to hang with a receiver like Thomas. There have been 14 wide receivers who've finished as top-24 options against the Falcons this season, including eight wide receivers who've topped 100 yards, and that's not even including the three games where a receiver totaled 95, 93, and 92 yards. Thomas should come with a top-24 floor, but if he gets into the end zone, he should be a WR1 this week. Let's split the difference and call him a high-end WR2.
5 hours ago
Benny Snell Jr. Note
Benny Snell Jr. photo 45. Benny Snell Jr. RB - PIT (vs . WAS)
Amari Cooper Note
Amari Cooper photo 46. Amari Cooper WR - DAL (at BAL)
I mentioned it last week, but despite all the turmoil on this Cowboys team, Cooper has been the shining light all season. He's now finished with at least five catches and 67 yards in 9-of-11 games, highlighting a floor that not many receivers have. Unfortunately, his scoring opportunities aren't going to be there (just three touchdowns all year), limiting expectations for his ceiling. Cooper may not have a massive ceiling without Prescott, but he's still offering plenty of value. Wide receivers have seen just a 53.8 percent target share against the Ravens, which ranks as the fourth-lowest mark in the league. Not just a lack of targets, but lack of efficiency is a real thing against them, as receivers have averaged just 1.58 PPR points per target, which is lower than all teams not named the Rams or Bears. Last year, the average top-12 wide receiver performance took 19.7 PPR points, which is a number the Ravens have allowed just once this season. I describe explosion performances as 20-plus points for wide receivers and 15-plus points for tight ends. The Ravens have allowed just one explosive performance all year to those positions, while no other team has allowed fewer than three. Given the lack of scoring opportunities, Cooper sits in WR3 territory in this tough matchup.
6 hours ago
Nyheim Hines Note
Nyheim Hines photo 47. Nyheim Hines RB - IND (at HOU)
The Colts are supposed to get Taylor back this week, which is something they seem to need more than they know. With him out, Hines and Jordan Wilkins combined for just 51 yards on 16 carries against the Titans, though it didn't help they were without starting center Ryan Kelly (who they hope to get back this week). Fun fact: Hines doesn't have a single carry of 15-plus yards this year. There's not a running back who's seen as many carries as him (61) without one. Taylor should be happy to return to this matchup against the Texans, as its' arguably the best in the league for his skill set. We know there are a lot of fantasy points up for grabs against the Texans, right? Well, of the production they've allowed to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, we've watched running backs account for 37.3 percent of it, which is the third-highest mark in the league. They've now allowed a league-high 1,564 yards on the ground to running backs, which is more than 23 teams have allowed to running backs as a whole (receiving included). When you look at strictly production on the ground, the Texans have allowed a league-high 240.4 fantasy points. No other team has allowed more than 215.8 of them. It's not the competition that's made them look bad, either. Running backs average 6.3 more half-PPR points per game against the Texans than they do versus their season average; that ranks as the second-most in the league. All-in-all, the Texans have faced more weighted volume to running backs than any other team in the league. That's led to them allowing a league-high 185.7 total yards per game to the position. The average top-24 running back performance in 2019 required 11.5 PPR points. That's a number that a league-high 14 running backs have hit against the Texans. This is your reminder that they've played just 11 games. Taylor is never a full 100 percent trust under Frank Reich, but he should be trusted enough to be played as a low-end RB2 with upside, because the last time we saw him on the field, he netted a massive 26 touches. Let's just hope Jacoby Brissett getting a few goal-line touches was due to Taylor being out, and not a regular thing moving forward. Production is there through the air as well for running backs in this matchup, as seven different backs have totaled 35-plus receiving yards, which bodes well for Hines' role. He should remain in the RB3 conversation, particularly in PPR formats.
6 hours ago
Damien Harris Note
Damien Harris photo 48. Damien Harris RB - NE (at LAC)
Despite the fact that Harris has been a very good running back on the ground, we were reminded why it's tricky to evaluate him last week. Since taking over the starting job, Harris has averaged 13.8 carries per game. Heck, let's pretend that number has been 16.0 just for this exercise. He's failed to receive a target in four of the last five games, so we can't count on that. Even if Harris gets 16 carries and averages a rock-star-like 5.0 yards per carry, he ends the game with 80 yards. If he doesn't score, he's not getting into startable territory, especially in PPR formats. The Chargers have allowed 1.0 rushing touchdown per game this year, which is tied for 15th. Going back to what we were just talking about, the Chargers have allowed 4.98 yards per carry, which is the third-most in the NFL. So, that 5.0 yards per carry I mentioned was very relevant. There have been nine running backs who've totaled at least 61 yards on the ground against them. Harris should be considered an RB3 right now who's extremely touchdown dependent because of how little he's used in the passing game. As for White, he could have a decent outlook in this game. Running backs have been targeted 22.7 percent of the time against the Chargers, which ranks as the second-highest mark in the NFL. We were hoping that with Rex Burkhead out of the lineup that we'd see more targets for White, and we got them in Week 11 when he saw nine of them, but he followed that up with just one target last week. Fortunately, he snuck into the end zone twice on just five carries, which is something we'll likely never get again, as White had just eight rushing touchdowns over the course of his 86-game career coming into that game. We need the passing game usage, so Week 12 was certainly a letdown. White should be considered a high-end RB4 in fantasy right now who apparently has a lower floor than we thought with Burkhead out of the lineup.
5 hours ago
Deebo Samuel Note
Deebo Samuel photo 49. Deebo Samuel WR - SF (vs . BUF)
It's safe to say he's healthy, eh? He went against a team that hadn't allowed a receiver more than 18.6 PPR points against them all year and delivered an 11-catch, 133-yard performance (24.3 PPR points). His average air yards per target on each target is 1.6 yards. There is no other wide receiver with a number lower than 5.1 yards (Greg Ward). They're getting creative and manufacturing touches for him to create after the catch, which is something he's one of the best in the league at doing. According to NFL's NextGenStats, he should be averaging 8.4 yards after the catch based on where defenders have been in proximity to him, but he's managed to average 13.0 per reception. The 4.6-yard difference is the highest in the NFL, slightly topping A.J. Brown's 4.1-yard gap. Of the fantasy production the Bills have allowed to skill-position players, wide receivers have accounted for just 45.7 percent of it, which ranks as the third-lowest mark in the league. But again, the Rams were even better than that. Tre'Davious White is their shadow cornerback, though he doesn't go into the slot, which is where Samuel is placed 34 percent of the time. Taron Johnson is the slot cornerback who's allowed 45-of-59 passing for 462 yards. There's only one cornerback who's allowed more slot yardage than him (Buster Skrine). It's also worth noting that 44 percent of the yardage Johnson has allowed in coverage has come after the catch. Samuel should be in lineups as a WR3 until we're given reason not to trust him.
5 hours ago
Duke Johnson Jr. Note
Duke Johnson Jr. photo 50. Duke Johnson Jr. RB - HOU (vs . IND)
We're expecting David back to the lineup this week after missing three games due to his concussion he suffered back in Week 9. It seemed like Duke injured himself early in the Thanksgiving game, which led to C.J. Prosise stealing some work, though Duke did wind up playing 42-of-56 snaps and posting 80 total yards with a touchdown. It's clear they didn't want him taking over David's role, which has netted 16.7 touches per game this year. He's not returning to a matchup that should get you excited, though. The Colts have allowed ball carriers just 1.13 yards before contact this year, which is the third-lowest mark in the league. This is bad news for Johnson. There have been 64 running backs who've rushed 50-plus times this year, and Johnson's 2.13 yards after contact ranks 62nd on that last, behind only Peyton Barber and Devonta Freeman. Sure, Derrick Henry ran all over them last week, but they were without their best defensive lineman (DeForest Buckner) and one of their starting linebackers (Bobby Okereke) for that game. Henry is also the only running back to run for 100-plus yards against the Colts under Matt Eberflus (span of 43 games). In fact, Henry is the only one who's topped 72 yards on the ground against them this year. In non-Henry games, the Colts have allowed just 641 rushing yards on 196 carries with five rushing touchdowns. That's just 3.27 yards per carry and 71.2 rushing yards per game, and that's to entire teams of running backs. Even factoring in schedule adjusted fantasy points, the Colts rank as the fifth-toughest matchup for running backs. David should return to 15 touches but they're not likely to net a whole bunch of yardage, putting him in that high-end RB3 territory without much of a ceiling. If he can't go, Duke would take his spot in the rankings.
6 hours ago
JuJu Smith-Schuster Note
JuJu Smith-Schuster photo 51. JuJu Smith-Schuster WR - PIT (vs . WAS)
It was a tough matchup for the entire team against the Ravens, but Smith-Schuster managed to sneak away with eight catches for 37 yards and a touchdown. It was a great performance for PPR leaguers, while it was still very serviceable in standard leagues with the touchdown. He's now finished with 67 yards and/or a touchdown in five of his last six games and looked healthy after dealing with some sort of lower leg injury at the end of Week 11's game. It'll be interesting to see how the Steelers distribute the targets this week knowing Washington has seen an average of just 18.3 wide receiver targets per game, which is the sixth-fewest in the league. That low number comes large in part because of the 31.1 pass attempts per game they see in total. Meanwhile, the Steelers wide receivers are used to splitting a monstrous 27.8 times per game. When targeted, Smith-Schuster will be covered by Jimmy Moreland, who's done a phenomenal job in slot coverage this year. He's allowed just 207 scoreless yards on 38 targets, including just 0.99 yards per snap, which ranks as the 10th-lowest among slot cornerbacks. Smith-Schuster might have it tougher than the other two Steelers receivers this week, making him a high-end WR3.
6 hours ago
Jarvis Landry Note
Jarvis Landry photo 52. Jarvis Landry WR - CLE (at TEN)
Landry was able to produce in a big way in week 12 against the Jags secondary. He saw 11 targets, while the next highest total on the team was three! Landry has another great matchup here against the Titans secondary and he can be plugged back into your lineup as a safe low-end WR3.
1 day ago
Corey Davis Note
Corey Davis photo 53. Corey Davis WR - TEN (vs . CLE)
Davis was extremely efficient with his targets in Week 12, but he just didn't get enough of them. He tied his season-low with just three targets, but he still managed to hit double-digit PPR points, which is something he's done in 8-of-9 games this year. He's been a very competent/consistent WR3 on fantasy teams to this point, though not many view him as such. Even given his lack of true ceiling, he sits as the WR34 on the season in PPR formats. The Browns have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this year, which much of it stems from where they're being targeted. Wide receivers facing the Browns have seen a league-high 45 targets while no other team has seen more than 39 of them. Davis has only seen four of them himself, while A.J. Brown has seen 10 of them. Davis will see a lot of Denzel Ward, who is the most talented cornerback on the Browns, though he's not the shutdown cornerback they thought they were getting when they selected him at No. 4 overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. He's allowed just 6.24 yards per target in his coverage this year but has allowed four touchdowns on just 54 targets in coverage. Now that it's Derrick Henry season, we don't expect a whole lot of pass attempts for the Titans, which obviously affects Davis, like we saw last week. Because of that, he should be considered a low-ceiling, high-end WR4.
8 hours ago
Latavius Murray Note
Latavius Murray photo 54. Latavius Murray RB - NO (at ATL)
We're officially panicked with Kamara now that we've seen just three targets over the last two games with Hill under center. Some are wondering if Murray is worth more with Hill under center considering his production in last week's game, though I'm not there just yet. That game was a blowout and keeping Kamara fresh makes a lot of sense. Still, Kamara's value has taken quite the hit, as his weighted opportunity is comparable to guys like Melvin Gordon and Kareem Hunt. The Falcons allow a lot of fantasy production, right? Unfortunately, running backs haven't accounted for too much of it. They've allowed a league-low 25.0 percent of skill-player production go to running backs, while no other team in the league is below 26.6 percent. Teams have realized it's more profitable to throw the ball against the Falcons, and that's why you've seen them face a league-low 17.8 carries per game. That's turned into just 70.0 rushing yards and 0.36 rushing touchdowns per game to running backs. For those doing the math at home, that's just 8.55 fantasy points per game on the ground, which is the lowest mark in the league. There have been six running backs who've totaled at least 33 yards through the air against them, so that's where you'd like to see production. How good have the Falcons been against running backs as a whole? Well, they've allowed just six of them to hit 11.5 PPR points this year, which is tied for the third-fewest in the league. That number is significant because it's the average number of points running backs needed to finish as a top-24 running back in 2019. Because of his decrease workload in the passing game, Kamara is more of a high-end RB2 at this point in time who's in a tough spot here. Don't forget he totaled just 45 yards on 13 carries against them just two weeks ago, though a touchdown salvaged his fantasy day. As for Murray, this matchup is brutal for his skill set, but he has fantasy value if he keeps getting the 12-plus carries he's gotten in the two games with Hill. Murray should be considered a mid-tier RB3 that you don't have to play in this game.
6 hours ago
Michael Pittman Jr. Note
Michael Pittman Jr. photo 55. Michael Pittman Jr. WR - IND (at HOU)
Pittman continued to be heavily targeted last week, although he wasn't able to do much with the nine targets he saw. Rivers just simply could not put the ball on target for him and Pittman's stats look a lot worse than what the film shows. Fantasy managers need to lean into the target volume and the talent with Pittman, but the QB play certainly downgrades his fantasy potential. Pittman can be plugged in as a mid-range WR3 this week with upside due to Bradley Roby now being out for the year.
1 day ago
Frank Gore Note
Frank Gore photo 56. Frank Gore RB - NYJ (vs . LV)
Gore continues to see a significant workload each week and he now has a fantastic matchup against the Raiders run defense. Gore can be viewed as a high-end RB3 with little upside.
1 day ago
CeeDee Lamb Note
CeeDee Lamb photo 57. CeeDee Lamb WR - DAL (at BAL)
The demise since Dak Prescott left the lineup continued in Week 12, as Lamb failed to top 34 yards for the fourth time in five games. He's getting the volume necessary to produce, as he's seen at least five targets in every game, including seven-plus targets in 7-of-11 games. The reason it's hard to forget about him is due to the fact that he's seen 28.6 percent of the Cowboys' targets inside the 10-yard line, giving him plenty of touchdown opportunities. Will the Cowboys be inside the 10-yard line very often this week? The Ravens have allowed just six touchdowns to wide receivers all season, which is the lowest total in the league. Lamb seems to have gotten an upgrade when the Ravens played on Wednesday, as he was slated to see Marlon Humphrey in coverage, one of the best slot cornerbacks in football. However, with Jimmy Smith needing to leave with another injury, that pushes Humphrey to the perimeter, and matches Lamb up with 37-year-old Tramon Williams. He came in and allowed the touchdown to JuJu Smith-Schuster on Wednesday. He's still not a bad cornerback, but could have trouble keeping up with the youngster all game. There have been 19 wide receivers who've either scored or posted 50-plus yards against the Ravens, so it's not all bad, but pay attention to the status of Jimmy Smith, as his absence would upgrade Lamb's matchup. For now, Lamb should be considered a low-end WR3/high-end WR4.
6 hours ago
Marvin Jones Jr. Note
Marvin Jones Jr. photo 58. Marvin Jones Jr. WR - DET (at CHI)
It was another uninspiring performance out of Jones last week, as he finished with just six catches for 48 yards, and that's despite seeing a team-high 12 targets. He wasn't gaining much separation against the weak Texans cornerback unit, which has been a common thing for him this year, averaging just 2.6 yards of separation, which ranks in the bottom-20 among wide receivers. He's averaged just 1.18 yards per route run this year, which ranks 51st among 57 wide receivers who've seen 50-plus targets. He's topped 55 yards just twice all season, with one of those games coming against the Falcons, so we need to start looking at Jones as if he's nearing the end of his career as a fantasy option. The Bears are allowing 1.57 PPR points per target to wide receivers, which ranks as the second-lowest mark in the league, behind only the Rams. They've allowed just six wide receivers to top 61 yards against them all season, and that's despite 13 wide receivers seeing seven or more targets. Jones saw eight targets in their first matchup this year with Golladay out of the lineup but finished with just four catches for 55 yards. The good news is that Jones has been playing about 33 percent of his snaps in the slot, which is where Buster Skrine is, a cornerback who's been struggling as of late. Jones' target floor goes down if Golladay returns and would be just a low-end WR4, but if Golladay were held out, he'd move into high-end WR4 consideration.
6 hours ago
Jakobi Meyers Note
Jakobi Meyers photo 59. Jakobi Meyers WR - NE (at LAC)
Despite Newton not throwing the ball very well, Meyers has finished with at least six targets and 52 yards in five of his last six games. Over that time (Week 7-12), Meyers is the No. 16 wide receiver in half PPR formats. He's not someone you play for a ceiling, but his floor is respectable. Wide receivers have seen just a 53.1 percent target share against the Chargers, which ranks as the second-lowest mark in the league. Meanwhile, the Patriots quarterbacks have targeted their wide receivers 70.0 percent of the time. Lack of production has followed the lack of targets, as receivers have accounted for just 45.7 percent of the fantasy points the Chargers have allowed to skill-position players. The only team who's allowed a lower percentage is the Bears. All in all, there have been just 10 wide receivers who've scored 11.2-plus PPR points against the Chargers this year, which ranks as the second-fewest in football. They were without Casey Hayward last week but did get Chris Harris Jr. back into the lineup. If Hayward returns, the Chargers suddenly have a deadly trio between Hayward, Harris Jr, and Michael Davis. It would be Harris Jr. in coverage with Meyers most of the time, as he's their slot cornerback. Harris has just returned from a seven-game absence, so maybe he's catching him at the right time? He hasn't been shutdown in his coverage to this point, so Meyers isn't a must-avoid or anything, as the bigger risk is his quarterback. Consider him a decent WR4-type option who you're sacrificing a bit of ceiling to play.
5 hours ago
Zack Moss Note
Zack Moss photo 60. Zack Moss RB - BUF (at SF)
The duo combined for a respectable 25 touches in Week 12, which was one of the higher marks on the season for them. Singletary looked good while finishing with 102 total yards, though he did fumble early in the fourth quarter, which has been a problem for him over his career. Moss out-snapped him 37-25 in the game, so the touches should still favor Moss, who also gets the goal-line work. The matchup this week is not good. The 49ers have faced just 24.8 running back touches per game (6th-fewest), so when you combine that with the minuscule 20.7 touches that the Bills running backs average. As a team, the Bills rank 29th in running back fantasy points. Meanwhile, the 49ers have allowed the seventh-fewest points per game to them. You don't need to be great at math to handle this equation. Not a single running back has topped 88 yards on the ground against the 49ers, while just five running backs have found the end zone. There have been six running backs who've totaled 30-plus yards through the air, but there's been just one game all year where any of the Bills running backs have totaled more than 33 receiving yards. Knowing Moss gets the goal-line touches, he is the preferred option because he could fall into the end zone, but he's just a low-end RB3 with a low floor. Singletary can be considered a high-end RB4 who should net 10-12 touches, even if they aren't particularly efficient.
5 hours ago
Cole Beasley Note
Cole Beasley photo 61. Cole Beasley WR - BUF (at SF)
I remember the good ol' days when we knew exactly what to expect out of Beasley. He lacked upside, but at least he gave you a floor. Suddenly, that floor is gone. He's finished with fewer than 40 yards in three of his last four games. Meanwhile, sandwiched in between all those games are two 11-catch, 100-plus-yard performances. The matchup against the 49ers is better than it used to be in the slot, as they lost starting cornerback K'Waun Williams for what might be the year. His replacement is Jamar Taylor, a veteran cornerback who's played for 22 percent of the teams in the NFL. Since joining the 49ers, he's allowed 14-of-19 passing for 185 yards, though he's still yet to allow a touchdown and has intercepted two passes. There has been just one slot-heavy wide receiver who's posted more than 8.6 PPR points against the 49ers this year, and that was Braxton Berrios when he caught 6-of-8 targets for 59 yards and a touchdown. So, it's not a clear-cut must-start situation for Beasley this week, but with Brown out, he should receive more targets than the four he did last week (though Allen threw just 24 passes). He's in the high-end WR4 territory but he lacks much of a ceiling in this matchup.
5 hours ago
Tyler Boyd Note
Tyler Boyd photo 62. Tyler Boyd WR - CIN (at MIA)
The good news is that we were right about Boyd still being the focal point of the offense, gathering a team-high six targets, but efficiency was gone. He caught just three of those targets for a measly 15 yards in Allen's first start of the season. It could've been just one bad game against a tough defense, but it was not a great start to the Burrow-less Bengals. Wide receivers have received a massive 64.2 percent target share against the Dolphins, which ranks as the second-highest number in the NFL, behind only the Seahawks. Unfortunately, wide receivers have only accounted for 52.7 percent of the fantasy production by skill-position players against them, which ranks as the ninth-highest number. It just highlights that wide receivers haven't been efficient against them despite seeing plenty of targets. The 1.61 PPR points per target ranks as the fourth-fewest in the NFL, behind only the Rams, Bears, and Ravens. The lone positive for Boyd is that Nik Needham is likely the least talented cornerback on the Dolphins roster, but he's still played fairly well this year, allowing just 28/297/0 on 42 targets in coverage. The only team who aggressively targeted their slot receiver was the Rams back in Week 8 when Cooper Kupp saw 21 targets that netted 11 receptions for 110 yards. We aren't going to see that for Boyd, but he should continue to lead the team in targets. He's just a low-end WR3/high-end WR4 with Allen under center.
6 hours ago
Mike Williams Note
Mike Williams photo 63. Mike Williams WR - LAC (vs . NE)
He's now seen a solid five-plus targets in five straight games, which is something we couldn't rely on earlier in the season. He's still a bit of a boom-or-bust play but it helps when your quarterback is throwing for 300-plus yards in 60 percent of his games. The one thing we need to pay attention to is how much of an effect Austin Ekeler has on his target totals because even though Williams saw five targets, it was just 9.6 percent of the targets. Herbert isn't going to throw the ball 52 times every week. In fact, the Patriots see just 17.3 wide receiver targets per game, which is the lowest mark in football. The good news is that they've allowed a massive 9.24 yards per target to wide receivers (5th-most) and have allowed a touchdown once every 13.6 targets, which is the third-most often. As you can see, it's somewhat of a mixed bag, but the reason I'm fading Williams this week is because I believe he's going to see a lot of Stephon Gilmore, as Keenan Allen goes into the slot far too often to be shadowed by Gilmore. Because of that, Williams is a high-risk WR4 this week.
5 hours ago
Brandon Aiyuk Note
Brandon Aiyuk photo 64. Brandon Aiyuk WR - SF (vs . BUF)
The 49ers should get Aiyuk back to the lineup this week, though it's important to monitor the situation throughout the week. The last three times we saw Aiyuk on the field, he was torching defenses for at least six catches and 75 yards in each game, including a touchdown in two of them. He also saw 24 targets over the last two games, but there's an important detail that cannot be ignored in there, and it's that Deebo Samuel was out for both those games. Samuel hasn't seen more than seven targets in any game Samuel has played in, so keep that in mind when setting expectations. The Bills have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers this year, a number that's been going down as the weeks go on. Last week, we saw them hold the duo of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to just seven receptions, 66 yards, and one touchdown on 15 targets. There's also the possibility of Tre'Davious White shadowing Aiyuk considering how much Samuel moves around, though they could just choose to play sides. Whatever the case, it hurst Aiyuk's projection that he doesn't go into the slot more than 20 percent of the time, as that's where they've struggled the most. With Samuel back in the lineup, Aiyuk moves back into the high-end WR4 territory.
5 hours ago
Sterling Shepard Note
Sterling Shepard photo 65. Sterling Shepard WR - NYG (at SEA)
Keeping the streak alive after seeing eight targets in Week 12, Shepard has now seen six-plus targets in 22 straight games (removing the game he left early in the second quarter against the Bears). He managed to turn those targets into seven catches for 64 yards despite both Daniel Jones and Colt McCoy struggling to get much going. Shepard has totaled at least six receptions and 39 yards in each of the six games he's played from start to finish, which may not sound like much, but that 9.9 PPR point floor is hard to find on a weekly basis, especially when the receiver isn't considered an auto-start. We now mix his target floor with the fact that wide receivers have been targeted a ridiculous 63.5 percent of the time against the Seahawks. The Dolphins are the only other team higher than a 61.7 percent share. It's not just targets, either. Wide receivers have also accounted for 58.4 percent of the fantasy production against them by skill-position players. The average number of points it took to finish as a top-36 wide receiver in 2019 was 11.2 PPR points. Despite not allowing any on Monday night, there have been a league-high 22 wide receivers who've hit that mark against the Seahawks this year. In fact, there have been no other teams who've allowed more than 18 such performances. The quarterback situation is ugly, but it's really been all year. It's a small sample, but Shepard did see four of McCoy's 10 pass attempts last week. Shepard is in the WR3/4 conversation as someone who should offer a stable floor, though his ceiling is extremely limited.
1 day ago
Tee Higgins Note
Tee Higgins photo 66. Tee Higgins WR - CIN (at MIA)
Higgins saw only five targets in week 12, but he was still able to produce for fantasy football by finding the end zone. It's hard to trust Higgins as anything more than a low-end WR3 with Brandon Allen at QB, but he's still worth plugging into your lineup due to the safe floor he provides.
1 day ago
T.J. Hockenson Note
T.J. Hockenson photo 67. T.J. Hockenson TE - DET (at CHI)
It was a very productive game for Hockenson on Thanksgiving, as he racked up five catches for 89 yards, but it was maddening at the same time. He caught a 51-yard pass early in the game where he had nothing but green in front of him towards the sideline, but instead, he cut back towards the middle of the field and was tackled by two defenders. It was odd to say the least. Most see the Bears on the schedule and worry, but if there's a position you shouldn't worry about against them, it's tight ends. The Bears have watched tight ends get targeted 23.2 percent of the time, which ranks as the fifth-highest mark in the league. That's not all... the Bears have also allowed tight ends a league-high 23.4 percent of the skill-position players' production while no other team in the league is over 20.8 percent. That all amounts to them allowing the third-most fantasy points per game (15.6) to tight ends this year. There have been just two tight ends who failed to finish top-18 against them, and both tight ends were targeted fewer than four times, something Hockenson doesn't have to worry about. With six tight ends topping 50 yards, Hockenson should have a stable floor in this matchup. He should remain in lineups as a TE1.
6 hours ago
Jerry Jeudy Note
Jerry Jeudy photo 68. Jerry Jeudy WR - DEN (at KC)
We're not going to even talk about last week because it's a game that shouldn't have been played. Removing that game from existence, Jeudy was the WR20 from Week 8 through Week 11, so don't forget about him just yet. Now, he does have another brutal matchup against the Chiefs in Week 13, so we have to exercise caution once again. "Teams are going to fall behind and be forced to pass!" Sure, but the Chiefs are allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points to skill-position players despite that. On top of that, wide receivers have accounted for just 46.3 percent of that production, which ranks as the third-lowest mark in the league. Going back to the start of last year, the Chiefs have allowed just 129.9 yards per game to wide receivers, which is the best in the NFL and a problem for Jeudy, as Lock doesn't throw a whole lot of touchdowns. Based on where he aligns, he's going to see the most of Bashaud Breeland, who's allowed 17-of-30 passing for just 139 yards in his coverage, though he has allowed two touchdowns. But still, that's just 0.57 yards allowed per snap, which ranks as the fourth-lowest mark in the NFL behind only Jimmy Smith, Jalen Ramsey, and Bryce Callahan. Jeudy should be considered a low-upside WR4 option for this game.
1 day ago
Giovani Bernard Note
Giovani Bernard photo 69. Giovani Bernard RB - CIN (at MIA)
At this point, all the shine has worn off with Gio and he's now merely a bye week fill-in option. He's simply not getting enough volume to have sustainable fantasy value in a poor offense. He can be viewed as a mid-range RB3 this week.
1 day ago
Chase Edmonds Note
Chase Edmonds photo 70. Chase Edmonds RB - ARI (vs . LAR)
I remember earlier in the year where I was feeling bad about recommending Drake as an early second-round pick. The process seemed right, and he was getting tons of work, but he just wasn't performing. He's starting to look like the player I thought he'd be when the season started. Despite missing a game in that stretch, Drake has been the RB8 since the start of Week 5. Here's a crazy stat that not many people would think to be true, but the Cardinals running backs are averaging more yards before contact (1.84 yards) than any other team. The Rams haven't been so kind to ball carriers, as they've allowed just 1.24 yards before contact, which is the 11th-fewest in the NFL. They've allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per weighted opportunity to running backs, behind only the Saints, Steelers, and Bears. Those are three teams you don't want to see on your schedule for running backs. What helps Drake is that with Kyler Murray dealing with his shoulder injury, he's getting practically all the carries inside the five-yard line (had five in Week 12 alone), as Edmonds has received just one carry inside the 10-yard line all year. Touchdowns will be important, as there's been just two running backs who've topped 71 yards on the ground against the Rams all year, and both backs saw 20-plus carries. The 5.33 yards per target they've allowed to running backs ranks as the 14th-lowest mark in the league, so that's where some production can be had, and it helps to know Drake has seen nine targets over the last two games (had 11 in the previous eight games). Drake should be considered a somewhat touchdown-dependent low-end RB2 this week in a tough matchup. As for Edmonds, he's more of a high-end RB4 who's still getting 8-12 opportunities per game, though they're likely to be inefficient in this matchup.
5 hours ago
Christian Kirk Note
Christian Kirk photo 71. Christian Kirk WR - ARI (vs . LAR)
He's seen at least six targets in each of his last five games, so volume isn't the issue, but something clearly is, as he's failed to top 50 yards in four of those five games, including each of the last three. With Kyler Murray struggling, Kirk is no longer a receiver you must start, especially when you look at the matchup this week. Wide receivers have averaged a league-low 136.3 yards per game against the Rams this year. They've allowed a league-low 29.9 PPR points per game to opposing receiving corps, which isn't even due to a lack of volume, because the 1.56 PPR points per target they've allowed is also the league-low. They've allowed a touchdown once every 34.5 targets, which is a tad ridiculous. If you think that he'll get more production because Hopkins will draw Jalen Ramsey, you're overlooking Darious Williams, who's been nearly as good as Ramsey, allowing just a 49.8 QB Rating in his coverage. There have been just 10 wide receivers all year who've finished as top-36 options against the Rams, which is obviously not great. Even lowering the bar to top-50 performances, they've allowed just 13 of those, which makes Kirk just a WR4/5-type option.
1 day ago
T.Y. Hilton Note
T.Y. Hilton photo 72. T.Y. Hilton WR - IND (at HOU)
He found the end zone against the Titans for the first time since Week 7 of last year. He also saw five targets, which makes it five-plus targets in 8-of-10 games this year. Hilton has not lived up to his reputation, but he has started to make strides to be considered as a streamer. Can he be trusted against the Texans, who are one of just three teams who've allowed a 70-plus percent catch-rate to wide receivers? As mentioned in the Pittman notes, they lost their top cornerbacks Bradley Roby for the season, which will force them to move forward with Vernon Hargreaves and Keion Crossen. Over the course of their careers, the two have combined to allow 253-of-358 passing for 3,331 yards and 13 touchdowns. That's a massive 9.30 yards per target, which is more than Stefon Diggs is averaging this year. Even with Roby there were 15 wide receivers who were able to finish as the WR42 or better against them, which puts Hilton into the WR4 conversation, though I prefer Pittman.
6 hours ago
Devin Singletary Note
Devin Singletary photo 73. Devin Singletary RB - BUF (at SF)
The duo combined for a respectable 25 touches in Week 12, which was one of the higher marks on the season for them. Singletary looked good while finishing with 102 total yards, though he did fumble early in the fourth quarter, which has been a problem for him over his career. Moss out-snapped him 37-25 in the game, so the touches should still favor Moss, who also gets the goal-line work. The matchup this week is not good. The 49ers have faced just 24.8 running back touches per game (6th-fewest), so when you combine that with the minuscule 20.7 touches that the Bills running backs average. As a team, the Bills rank 29th in running back fantasy points. Meanwhile, the 49ers have allowed the seventh-fewest points per game to them. You don't need to be great at math to handle this equation. Not a single running back has topped 88 yards on the ground against the 49ers, while just five running backs have found the end zone. There have been six running backs who've totaled 30-plus yards through the air, but there's been just one game all year where any of the Bills running backs have totaled more than 33 receiving yards. Knowing Moss gets the goal-line touches, he is the preferred option because he could fall into the end zone, but he's just a low-end RB3 with a low floor. Singletary can be considered a high-end RB4 who should net 10-12 touches, even if they aren't particularly efficient.
5 hours ago
Marquise Brown Note
Marquise Brown photo 74. Marquise Brown WR - BAL (vs . DAL)
Who would've thought that by the Ravens playing their third-string quarterback Trace McSorley that Brown would have his best game of 2020? Sure, one play made up most of that production, but that's the type of player many thought they were drafting at the start of the year. He has a chance to build on that performance in Week 13. The Cowboys have allowed more wide receiver touchdowns (19) than any other team in the league. They've allowed one every 10.9 targets this year, which is truly ridiculous. That's been a major contributing factor to them allowing a league-high 2.12 PPR points per target to wide receivers. The Cowboys have also allowed the fourth-most yards per reception (14.04) to wide receivers. There have been 10 wide receivers who've posted 19.7-plus PPR points against the Cowboys this year, which is the average number of points it took to finish as a top-12 wide receiver last year. The only team who's allowed more is the Seahawks. Bar too high? How about top-24? The Cowboys have allowed 15 wide receivers hit the 14.5-point mark it took to get there in 2019, which again, is the second-most in the league. If you're willing to take some risk, Brown offers plenty of upside in one of the best matchups of the year. He's a risk/reward WR4 this week and one I'll have some tournament exposure to.
6 hours ago
Nelson Agholor Note
Nelson Agholor photo 75. Nelson Agholor WR - LV (at NYJ)
He had a competent performance against the Falcons last week with five catches for 54 yards, which really isn't bad when you consider how bad Derek Carr was in that game. It was just the third time all year Agholor has seen more than four targets. In fact, 51.2 percent of his production this year has come on just five receptions. While he's struggled to get consistent targets, the Jets have allowed a robust 9.28 yards per target to wide receivers, which certainly helps you feel better about starting Agholor in a pinch. The Jets starting cornerback trio of Bryce Hall, Lamar Jackson, and Arthur Maulet have allowed 28-of-41 passing for 296 yards and two touchdowns over the last two weeks. If the alignment stays the same, it'll be Jackson who sees Agholor the most, a rookie cornerback who's allowed a ridiculous 146.4 QB Rating in his coverage. Knowing there have been 20 wide receivers who've finished as a top-48 wide receiver (WR4 or better) against them, Agholor certainly deserves WR4 consideration once again this week, especially given his 15 targets over the last two weeks.
8 hours ago
Darius Slayton Note
Darius Slayton photo 76. Darius Slayton WR - NYG (at SEA)
Well, this is not great. We talked about Slayton being a boom-or-bust option last week, though nobody (myself included) expected a zero-catch game. Once McCoy came into the game, Slayton didn't see any of his 10 pass attempts. The Giants weren't taking many shots down the field with Daniel Jones under center, so it's extremely unlikely we see many more with Slayton. Some will still be considering Slayton considering the Seahawks have allowed a ridiculous 12 wide receivers to hit 20-plus PPR points against them this year while no other team has allowed more than nine such performances. There have been 26 wide receivers who've posted top-48 numbers against the Seahawks, which is WR4 or better territory. Slayton lines up all over the formation, though LWR is his primary spot, which means he'll see Tre Flowers most of the time, a cornerback who's been beat for 37-of-49 passing with 403 yards and a touchdown in his coverage, which is good for a 106.1 QB Rating. Slayton is a risky play with McCoy under center, though the matchup doesn't make him the worst hail-mary WR4/5 option.
5 hours ago
Breshad Perriman Note
Breshad Perriman photo 77. Breshad Perriman WR - NYJ (vs . LV)
It's pretty remarkable when you consider everything he's been through with three different teams, but Perriman has averaged 10.2 yards per target over the last three years, which ranks fifth among wide receivers with 100-plus targets over that time. His targets have been inconsistent all year, as we've talked about several times. Here are his target totals by week: 5, 2, 8, 2, 7, 4, 8. If the trend were to hold, we'd be looking at a 2-4 target game this week, though we hope that's not the case. The Raiders have seen just 53.6 percent of targets directed at wide receivers, which ranks as the third-lowest mark in the league. Another downside is that Darnold has thrown the ball deep on just 9.7 percent of his attempts, while Joe Flacco threw the ball deep on 19.4 percent of his attempts. That's where Perriman makes up most of his value. The Raiders might be missing starting cornerback Damon Arnette for this game, as he suffered a pretty bad concussion in Week 12. His replacement, Isaiah Johnson, allowed 5-of-9 passing for 42 yards and a touchdown in his coverage last week. The Raiders haven't been too susceptible to the deep ball (32 completions of 20-plus yards), which makes Perriman a boom-or-bust WR5 with his fluctuating target share.
8 hours ago
Cam Akers Note
Cam Akers photo 78. Cam Akers RB - LAR (at ARI)
We've talked about this backfield and it's unpredictability on a weekly basis. In fact, you may not be able to predict it from quarter-to-quarter, as Akers saw just one carry in the first half, but then saw eight of them in the second half. Over the last three weeks, here are the touches and yardages for each back: Henderson (28 - 61), Akers (25 - 141), and Brown (17 - 98). Akers has had the most success, but 61 of his yards came on one play. He's been stuck in the 5-10 carry range for the last month, so it's tough to see that changing overnight. The Cardinals haven't faced more than 21 carries by a team of running backs since way back in Week 7, which doesn't bode well for this timeshare. The good news is that the Cardinals have allowed a massive 2.44 yards before contact to ball carriers this year, which ranks as the fifth-most in the league, and much of that was with interior lineman Corey Peters in the lineup (he's out for the year). All in all, the Cardinals have faced 25.5 running back touches per game, so even if Akers were to get a bump into 40-45 percent of the touches (he's averaged 35.7 percent over the last three weeks), we're talking about 10-12 touches if that number holds true. There have been six running backs who've totaled 15-plus PPR points against the Cardinals, but five of them totaled at least 16 touches. Akers might be the preferred option right now, but he's still nothing more than an RB3 until we see him get a larger share of the touches. Henderson is still in the high-end RB4 conversation, as he's received the most touches over the last three games, and it's possible he is still the most valuable one, though he's been trending downward. Brown is seemingly an afterthought with Akers earning a bigger role.
5 hours ago
Myles Gaskin Note
Myles Gaskin photo 79. Myles Gaskin RB - MIA (vs . CIN)
Both these running backs were ruled out late in the week, so I'm guessing they both have a shot to play this week, though Gaskin seems like the safer bet. He's also the one who'll likely have the bigger role, so he's the one we really care about. The Bengals have allowed ball carriers 2.46 yards before contact this year, which ranks as the third-most in football. That's led to them allowing a massive 5.07 yards per carry, which ranks as the second-highest mark in football. It'A also good to know that Gaskin has averaged a team-high 2.58 yards after contact. Running backs haven't been targeted much against the Bengals, receiving just a 15.5 percent target share, which ranks as the third-lowest in football. Because of that, they've averaged just 7.1 PPR points per game through the air, which ranks as the fourth-lowest mark in football. There have been nine running backs who've totaled at least 16 touches against the Bengals, and each one of them were able to total at least 87 total yards, while five of them were able to find the end zone. Gaskin had totaled at least 21 touches in each of the last three games he played, and it seems like the Dolphins wanted to hold him out until he was 100 percent, so if he's active, he should probably be in lineups as a high-end RB3 because he does come with a little bit of risk as a running back coming off a multi-week injury. As for Ahmed, he'd likely fall into the 5-10 touch range, though Matt Breida has been used in some sort of role throughout the year, so we really don't know what the split would look like.
6 hours ago
D.J. Chark Jr. Note
D.J. Chark Jr. photo 80. D.J. Chark Jr. WR - JAC (at MIN)
He was ruled out early last week, so there's no guarantee he plays through his rib injury this week, so stay tuned for updates to his status. Of the fantasy production the Vikings have allowed to skill-position players, wide receivers have accounted for 55.4 percent of it, which is the fourth-highest percentage in the NFL. They have allowed 18 wide receiver touchdowns on the season, which ranks as the second-most in football. Only the Cowboys have allowed touchdowns more often than the one every 12.6 targets that the Vikings do. The 2.03 PPR points per target they've allowed ranks second again to only the Cowboys. There have been 20 wide receivers who've finished as the WR41 or better against the Vikings, including nine top-16 receivers. We don't know what Chark looks like with Glennon, but Collin Johnson made it look pretty good. If Chark is able to play this week, he belongs in the high-end WR3 conversation with top-15 upside.
6 hours ago
Julio Jones Note
Julio Jones photo 81. Julio Jones WR - ATL (vs . NO)
The Falcons are reportedly "hopeful" to get Jones back this week, but there's one thing you need to pay attention to, and that's his practice schedule. If he practices, even limited, he should be good to go. If he doesn't, don't count on him taking the field Sunday. The Saints are not the best matchup to be returning to, as they've been one of the best defenses in the league over the last month. Jones saw two targets on his 22 snaps that he was able to play in Week 11, which led to two receptions for 39 yards, though it's worth noting the Saints were also without Marshon Lattimore for that game. He's the cornerback Jones would see most of in coverage. After a rough start to the season, Lattimore has gotten back on track over his last five games, allowing just 15-of-27 passing for 157 yards, though two of those receptions have gone for touchdowns. Teams seemingly understand the talent in the Saints cornerback unit, as receivers have averaged just 17.9 targets per game, the third-fewest in the NFL. If Jones can suit up, you're playing him as a WR1, albeit a low-end one in this tough matchup.
5 hours ago
Evan Engram Note
Evan Engram photo 82. Evan Engram TE - NYG (at SEA)
He posted a career-high 129 yards in Week 12, which nearly doubled his previous high for the season. He's now seen nine-plus targets in four of the last five games, which makes him a must-start in fantasy leagues. The only downside is that once Colt McCoy came into the game, Engram saw just one of the 10 passes he threw, but that's a small sample size. For whatever reason, tight ends just haven't see a lot of targets against the Seahawks, as they'd seen just 12.4 percent of the targets before the Eagles walked in and targeted their tight ends 16 times, which netted 10/128/2, by the way. They were the first two tight ends to finish with 10.6 or more PPR points against the Seahawks, which is a significant number because it's the average number of points it took to finish as a top-12 tight end in 2019. Maybe the Giants take note of the Eagles usage because when targeted, tight ends have averaged 1.92 PPR points per target, which is the 10th-highest number in the league. It's not touchdowns that have raised that number, but rather the yardage, as the 8.25 yards per target they've allowed is the fifth-most in the league. McCoy is more of the conservative quarterback, which should benefit someone like Engram, who is locked into lineups as a TE1 right now.
5 hours ago
Devontae Booker Note
Devontae Booker photo 83. Devontae Booker RB - LV (at NYJ)
We talked about Jacobs' matchup last week and how it was tougher than most expected, but for him to total just 10 touches was something no one could've predicted. He hurt his ankle late in the third quarter, which knocked him out of the game, but he was mostly inefficient in that game. He will likely be questionable for this game, so pay attention to his status throughout the week. He now has 206 carries on the season, but just four of those carries have gone for 15-plus yards, so you kind of need him to get that high volume. Fortunately, he gets the Jets this week, who've allowed the fifth-most touches per game (29.4) to running backs. The downside is that they've allowed just 1.16 yards before contact to ball carriers, which ranks as the fourth-lowest mark in the league. We talked about it being necessary for Jacobs to get some of the passing game work last week, and though that didn't really happen, it helps to know the Jets have watched running backs get targeted 21.9 percent of the time against them, which is tied for the fourth-highest mark in the league. All in all, the Jets have faced the second-most weighted opportunity to running backs this year, behind only the Texans. To see they've allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to them should be considered an accomplishment, as they've been the 11th-toughest matchup for running backs from an efficiency standpoint. But again, that volume has allowed nine running backs to finish with top-24 numbers against them. If he practices in full at some point, he should be considered a high-end RB2 this week. If he doesn't, this is likely to be more of a timeshare between him and Booker, downgrading him into mid-to-low-end RB2 territory. If Jacobs were to sit this game entirely, Booker could be played as a middling RB2 who should be locked into 15-plus touches, and maybe even 20 of them.
8 hours ago
Hunter Henry Note
Hunter Henry photo 84. Hunter Henry TE - LAC (vs . NE)
Despite Austin Ekeler coming back to the lineup, Henry managed to see a season-high 10 targets against the Bills. He also turned them into a season-high seven receptions for 67 yards, so he's now finished with at least 13.7 PPR points in each of his last three games. It took a little while for him and Herbert to get on the same page, but it appears we've finally gotten there. This is the game where we're going to find out how a smaller portion shakes out, as the Patriots haven't faced more than 37 pass attempts in any one game. The Chargers would be wise to look at others for production, as the Patriots have been one of the worst matchups in the league for tight ends, and that's backed up by Football Outsiders' DVOA that has them ranked as the seventh-toughest matchup for the position. No tight end has topped 13.3 PPR points against them this year, and they've played against Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Darren Waller, and Mark Andrews. Tight ends have scored 3.5 fewer PPR points per game against the Patriots versus what they've averaged in non-Patriots game, which makes them the fourth-worst schedule adjusted matchup for tight ends. It's impossible to sit Henry considering the stability he brings to lineups but dial back expectations this week and avoid him in cash DFS lineups.
5 hours ago
Allen Lazard Note
Allen Lazard photo 85. Allen Lazard WR - GB (vs . PHI)
After taking a massive hit on Sunday night against the Bears, you wondered if Lazard was going to miss some time. Surprisingly, he returned to the game and finished, so we must assume he'll be good to go. Unfortunately, it's not a great matchup for him. We just watched Nickell Robey-Coleman essentially remove Tyler Lockett from the game on Monday night, who happens to be the cornerback Lazard will see most of the day. Robey-Coleman hasn't been what I'd call great this year, though it may have taken him time to adjust to his new team. The only slot-heavy receivers who've finished with more than 50 yards against the Eagles were Tyler Boyd, who saw 13 targets, and Cooper Kupp, who finished with five catches for 81 yards. Lazard has totaled 10 targets in two games since returning, and considering we love Adams this week, it's tough to find the production for Lazard against a team that's allowed just 10 top-36 wide receivers on the year. He's stuck in the low-end WR4/high-end WR5 range.
5 hours ago
Sammy Watkins Note
Sammy Watkins photo 86. Sammy Watkins WR - KC (vs . DEN)
He returned to the lineup successfully last week, playing 57-of-79 total snaps and seeing seven targets. They amounted to four receptions for 38 yards, so nothing to write home about, but he's seen at least seven targets in all four games he's played from start to finish this year. The Broncos play stations on the field, so there aren't any shadow matchups to wonder about. They've been one of the more efficient defenses against receivers, allowing just 7.52 yards per target (3rd-fewest). They have allowed 13 wide receivers to finish top-36 against them, though you need to know that 10 of those wide receivers scored touchdowns. Watkins should be considered that WR4-type option you plug-in when there's an emergency and just hope he has one of those big games. But most of the time, you're left with something like four catches for 42 yards.
5 hours ago
Jamison Crowder Note
Jamison Crowder photo 87. Jamison Crowder WR - NYJ (vs . LV)
Where has his role gone in this offense? We thought it was due to Joe Flacco under center, but after seeing just five targets in Week 12 with Darnold under center, you have to wonder if they're trying to move away from the slot receiver as the primary option. You'd have to go all the way back to Week 5 to find the last time Crowder finished with more than 48 yards. He's no longer someone who absolutely needs to be started. The Raiders matchup is tougher in the slot than it is on the perimeter, too. Lamarcus Joyner has allowed 34-of-48 passing for just 353 yards and no touchdowns in his coverage this season. The Raiders did allow big games to both Keenan Allen and Chris Godwin, but both of those wide receivers see plenty of time on the perimeter, which is something Crowder knows nothing about. The more comparable receivers would be Cole Beasley (3/32/1), Jarvis Landry (4/52/0), Curtis Samuel (5/38/0), and Russell Gage (3/34/0), who were all held in check against them. Crowder should be considered a low-upside WR4/5-type option who might have a higher floor than some in that range, but you might be better off sacrificing some floor for ceiling.
3 days ago
Dallas Goedert Note
Dallas Goedert photo 88. Dallas Goedert TE - PHI (at GB)
It seems likely that Ertz will return this week, removing some of the luster around Goedert as a must-play TE1, though there has been enough room for two tight ends in this offense. Goedert and Richard Rodgers have combined for 34 targets, 25 receptions, 346 yards, and four touchdowns over the last three weeks. How is that possible with Wentz playing the way he has? Good question. All their production is being funneled through the tight ends. Similar to the matchup they had last week, the Packers have seen a tight end targeted on just 15.6 percent of passes this year, which ranks as the third-fewest in the NFL. But this is where the heavy targets of the Eagles come into play, as the Packers have allowed 8.00 yards per target to tight ends when they do get targeted, which is the seventh-most in the league. Is there a reason tight ends haven't been targeted much against the Packers or is it just the competition they've played? The three big-name tight ends they've played have been Rob Gronkowski (5/78/1), T.J. Hockenson (4/62/0), and Hayden Hurst (4/51/0), so it wasn't all that bad. Football Outsiders has them ranked as the 15th-toughest matchup for tight ends, so it's not bad as long as you're targeted. Goedert should remain in lineups as a TE1 unless he gives us a reason not to. Provided Ertz returns, he'll be in the high-end TE2 conversation just because he comes with a bit more risk in his first game back.
5 hours ago
Keelan Cole Sr. Note
Keelan Cole Sr. photo 89. Keelan Cole Sr. WR - JAC (at MIN)
Despite Chark and Chris Conley being out, Cole was unable to get much going against the Browns last week, finishing with 3/44/0 on six targets. To be fair, we shouldn't be expecting a whole lot out of Cole considering he's topped 58 yards just once all season. He's more of a floor option than one you're playing to get a ceiling out of. The Vikings have allowed 2.03 PPR points per target, which is tied for the second-most in the league, so him seeing at least five targets in 9-of-11 games this year is somewhat of a big deal. The Vikings have rookie Jeff Gladney covering the slot, and he's been... well, like a rookie, allowing 30-of-48 passing for 364 yards and five touchdowns in his slot coverage. If you want to play Cole as a high-floor WR5 type option, that's fine, but understand he's had a very limited ceiling this year despite seeing solid targets.
6 hours ago
Darrell Henderson Note
Darrell Henderson photo 90. Darrell Henderson RB - LAR (at ARI)
We've talked about this backfield and it's unpredictability on a weekly basis. In fact, you may not be able to predict it from quarter-to-quarter, as Akers saw just one carry in the first half, but then saw eight of them in the second half. Over the last three weeks, here are the touches and yardages for each back: Henderson (28 - 61), Akers (25 - 141), and Brown (17 - 98). Akers has had the most success, but 61 of his yards came on one play. He's been stuck in the 5-10 carry range for the last month, so it's tough to see that changing overnight. The Cardinals haven't faced more than 21 carries by a team of running backs since way back in Week 7, which doesn't bode well for this timeshare. The good news is that the Cardinals have allowed a massive 2.44 yards before contact to ball carriers this year, which ranks as the fifth-most in the league, and much of that was with interior lineman Corey Peters in the lineup (he's out for the year). All in all, the Cardinals have faced 25.5 running back touches per game, so even if Akers were to get a bump into 40-45 percent of the touches (he's averaged 35.7 percent over the last three weeks), we're talking about 10-12 touches if that number holds true. There have been six running backs who've totaled 15-plus PPR points against the Cardinals, but five of them totaled at least 16 touches. Akers might be the preferred option right now, but he's still nothing more than an RB3 until we see him get a larger share of the touches. Henderson is still in the high-end RB4 conversation, as he's received the most touches over the last three games, and it's possible he is still the most valuable one, though he's been trending downward. Brown is seemingly an afterthought with Akers earning a bigger role.
5 hours ago
Jalen Reagor Note
Jalen Reagor photo 91. Jalen Reagor WR - PHI (at GB)
Well, this stinks. Reagor has gotten the targets we've expected (25 over the last four games) but production has been hard to come by. Sure, we knew Wentz was struggling but there are a lot of wide receivers who are producing with bad quarterback play, which is why it made sense for Reagor to turn things around. Jeffery didn't have a role on the team the last few weeks, but then ran more routes than Fulgham in Week 12, though neither of them produced. After flopping against the Seahawks, we've reached the end of the little trust we had in all Eagles receivers. The Packers have allowed the fifth-fewest yards per target (7.61) to wide receivers this year and have only allowed 149.4 wide receiver yards per game. Their opponents have lacked overall play volume, and it really makes sense to keep the ball on the ground against them. Reagor is still in WR5 territory due to the targets he's getting, but you're probably better off moving on. The others are waiver wire fodder right now.
5 hours ago
Carlos Hyde Note
Carlos Hyde photo 92. Carlos Hyde RB - SEA (vs . NYG)
What in the heck happened on Monday night? Hyde out-snapped Carson 41-25 and out-touched him 17-10. In totally unrelated news, Hyde totaled 29 total yards on his 17 touches. -_- Please stop this as soon as possible, Mr. Pete Carroll. Fortunately, Carson was hyper-efficient totaling 59 yards on his 10 touches, including a powerful touchdown run that 95 percent of running backs wouldn't have scored on. This timeshare is a real issue because the Giants have only faced 19.4 running back carries per game, which is the third-fewest in the league. Those carries have netted 4.23 yards per carry, which is slightly below the league average, so they're not a team who's going to allow heavy production on the ground. It is worth noting that a league-high 67 percent of carries inside the five-yard line have resulted as touchdowns against the Giants. If we can get Carson back as the primary pass-catching running back, it' would be a good thing because that's where the production stems from against the Giants. Running backs have been targeted a league-high 22.8 percent of the time against the Giants, and that's led to 12.7 PPR points per game through the air alone, which ranks as the third-highest mark in football. There have been 11 running backs who've caught at least three passes, while seven of them have racked up 35-plus receiving yards. I'm willing to write-off last week's game as them easing Carson back into the lineup, because he's clearly the better running back. You should feel pretty confident playing him as a solid RB2 in this game. Hyde should still have a role but knowing that the Giants have faced just 25.4 running back touches per game, it's tough to see two starter-worthy options out of this backfield. Hyde should be in the high-end RB4 range in case last week wasn't just a fluke.
5 hours ago
Jamaal Williams Note
Jamaal Williams photo 93. Jamaal Williams RB - GB (vs . PHI)
This timeshare is not going away and it's maddening for fantasy football managers. That's a 60/40 timeshare. We haven't seen Jones finish better than the RB9 in each of his last five games because he's sharing touches. We've seen him finish as the RB20 or worse in three of his last four games, which is something that didn't happen at all over hist first five games. You have to wonder if this timeshare is due to the calf injury he suffered back in Week 7. Just dial back expectations a bit, though touchdowns haven't gone his way like they were earlier in the year. Despite the Eagles being one of the better run defenses in the league, teams have chosen to run the ball 46.6 percent of the time against them, which ranks as the third-highest rate in the league. They haven't had much success, as the 3.37 yards per carry they've allowed highlights. There have been just two running backs who've topped 61 yards on the ground against them, though we should note that they have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns to running backs, which ranks as the fifth-most in the NFL. Through the air, running backs have only been targeted 15.2 percent of the time against the Eagles, which ranks as the second-lowest mark in the league, and why we've seen just three running backs top 24 receiving yards. They've also yet to allow a receiving touchdown to a running back. The matchup isn't great. Even when you adjust it for schedule, it's the 10th-worst matchup for running backs. Jones should remain in lineups as a low-end RB1 who will start finding the end zone before long. Williams is obviously the lesser part of this timeshare and should be in the high-end RB4 territory now that he's scored at least 8.5 PPR points in 8-of-10 games this year.
5 hours ago
Denzel Mims Note
Denzel Mims photo 94. Denzel Mims WR - NYJ (vs . LV)
He now has three straight games with eight targets, which is certainly good news, and he's also totaled at least 62 yards in each of them. We noticed that other rookies took some time to acclimate to the NFL, so it could be starting to click for Mims. The matchup he'll have against the Raiders will be primarily against Damon Arnette (who suffered a concussion last week) or Isaiah Johnson. Neither of them has been particularly good this year, allowing a combined 33-of-47 passing for 473 yards and three touchdowns. That's over 10.0 yards per target and a touchdown every 15.7 targets. Still, the production against them has been quite spread out, as there've been just nine wide receivers all year who've topped 68 receiving yards against them. Ultimately, Mims should offer a somewhat stable floor as a low-end WR4 but it's hard to love him in this offense that's constantly underachieving.
8 hours ago
Robert Tonyan Note
Robert Tonyan photo 95. Robert Tonyan TE - GB (vs . PHI)
So, despite Allen Lazard being back in the lineup, Tonyan has managed to see five targets in each of the last two games. He's turned them into 5/44/1 and 5/67/1, so it's safe to say he's been efficient. Because of that, he's the No. 4 tight end on the year. Crazy year, eh? The Eagles have allowed the 12th-most points per game to tight ends, though the numbers are extremely skewed by early-year production. Over the first four weeks they allowed Logan Thomas 4/37/1, Tyler Higbee 5/54/3, and George Kittle 15/183/1, which made it seem like the matchup we dreamed of for tight ends. Since that time, they've allowed just 34 receptions, 273 yards, and one touchdown over their last seven games, so it's no longer that dream matchup. They played against Evan Engram (twice), Eric Ebron, Mark Andrews, Dalton Schultz, and Austin Hooper during that stretch, so the competition wasn't bad, either. Kittle was still the only one who topped 54 yards against them, so it's a touchdown-dependent matchup, but playing with Rodgers does give him much better odds than most. He should remain in the low-end TE1 conversation.
5 hours ago
Tim Patrick Note
Tim Patrick photo 96. Tim Patrick WR - DEN (at KC)
Just like we did with Jeudy, we're removing Week 12 from existence. Patrick has surprisingly finished as a top-36 wide receiver in six of his last eight games. Wide receivers have accounted for just 140.9 yards per game against the Chiefs, which is the second-lowest mark in the league. There have been just nine wide receivers all year who've topped 50 yards against the Chiefs. Even adjusting for schedule, the Chiefs rank as the eighth-toughest matchup for wide receviers, as they've averaged 9.6 percent fewer fantasy points per game than their seasonal average. Patrick is right alongside Jeudy in the back-end WR4 conversation, though both lack upside in this matchup.
5 hours ago
Darnell Mooney Note
Darnell Mooney photo 97. Darnell Mooney WR - CHI (vs . DET)
It's kind of crazy to think that Mooney has 65 targets on the year, which ranks 37th among wide receivers, and is precisely as much as A.J. Brown. It puts him on pace for 95 targets for the year, though his projected 560 yards are nowhere close to where they should be. Mooney saw nine targets in Week 12, so they're not shying away from targeting him despite the 5.9 yards per target. He's the one they take deep shots down the field to, as his 14.8 average air yards suggests (11th-highest) in the league. Meanwhile, the Lions have allowed 42 pass plays of 20-plus yards, which ranks as the third-most in the league. The 12.1 yards per reception they're allowing to pass catchers in general is the highest in the NFL. They've been moving players around the defense with injuries to both Desmond Trufant and Jeff Okudah, so we are likely to see Mooney against some backup cornerbacks. He's nothing more than a hail-mary WR4/5 but one who sees more targets than almost everyone in that range.
6 hours ago
Hayden Hurst Note
Hayden Hurst photo 98. Hayden Hurst TE - ATL (vs . NO)
We knew to bump Hurst down without Julio Jones in the lineup, which turned out to be right, though Hurst did turn in a competent performance for a tight end, as four catches and 48 yards will hardly bury your fantasy team. He's now totaled at least 48 yards and/or a touchdown in 8-of-11 games. Now onto a rematch with the Saints, a team that held him catchless in their Week 11 matchup, though his two targets didn't help. Tight ends have seen a league-high 23.7 percent of targets go to the their way against the Saints, though they haven't been the most efficient targets seeing that they've accounted for 19.4 percent of the fantasy production to skill-position players, which ranks as the 10th-most. The 5.86 yards per target they've allowed to the position ranks as the fourth-lowest in the league. If you were to remove the one massive game by Darren Waller against them (12/103/1 back in Week 2), they'd look like a much less appealing matchup. Outside of that game, they've allowed just 38.9 yards per game to the tight end position. Hurst has done enough to earn your consideration as a low-end TE1, but don't hesitate to sit him if you have a safer option.
2 days ago
James White Note
James White photo 99. James White RB - NE (at LAC)
Despite the fact that Harris has been a very good running back on the ground, we were reminded why it's tricky to evaluate him last week. Since taking over the starting job, Harris has averaged 13.8 carries per game. Heck, let's pretend that number has been 16.0 just for this exercise. He's failed to receive a target in four of the last five games, so we can't count on that. Even if Harris gets 16 carries and averages a rock-star-like 5.0 yards per carry, he ends the game with 80 yards. If he doesn't score, he's not getting into startable territory, especially in PPR formats. The Chargers have allowed 1.0 rushing touchdown per game this year, which is tied for 15th. Going back to what we were just talking about, the Chargers have allowed 4.98 yards per carry, which is the third-most in the NFL. So, that 5.0 yards per carry I mentioned was very relevant. There have been nine running backs who've totaled at least 61 yards on the ground against them. Harris should be considered an RB3 right now who's extremely touchdown dependent because of how little he's used in the passing game. As for White, he could have a decent outlook in this game. Running backs have been targeted 22.7 percent of the time against the Chargers, which ranks as the second-highest mark in the NFL. We were hoping that with Rex Burkhead out of the lineup that we'd see more targets for White, and we got them in Week 11 when he saw nine of them, but he followed that up with just one target last week. Fortunately, he snuck into the end zone twice on just five carries, which is something we'll likely never get again, as White had just eight rushing touchdowns over the course of his 86-game career coming into that game. We need the passing game usage, so Week 12 was certainly a letdown. White should be considered a high-end RB4 in fantasy right now who apparently has a lower floor than we thought with Burkhead out of the lineup.
5 hours ago
Henry Ruggs III Note
Henry Ruggs III photo 100. Henry Ruggs III WR - LV (at NYJ)
He tied a career-high in targets last week... with five of them. The 56 yards he posted against the Falcons was the second-highest mark of the season for him, so baby steps, I guess. The Jets have allowed a massive 72.0 percent catch-rate to wide receivers, a number that's only grown as the year has gone on. There have been 19 wide receivers who've seen at least five targets against the Jets, and 17 of them finished as top-48 wide receivers, so volume is really all we need for Ruggs to get into WR4 territory. Knowing the Raiders run game isn't particularly healthy and may struggle against the Jets run defense (that's better than most believe), we should see a bit more pass attempts out of the Raiders offense. The Jets have also allowed 38 pass plays that have gone for 20-plus yards, the seventh-most in football. You know the risk you're getting into with Ruggs by now, though this matchup is one that really should allow him to shine a bit. He's a risk/reward WR4/5-type option.
8 hours ago
Gabriel Davis Note
Gabriel Davis photo 101. Gabriel Davis WR - BUF (at SF)
Eric Ebron Note
Eric Ebron photo 102. Eric Ebron TE - PIT (vs . WAS)
It was overall a productive day for Ebron, who hauled in seven passes for 54 yards, but it wasn't the best game for him, as he flat-out dropped two passes in that game, including one that may have gone for a touchdown. Over his last 10 games, Ebron has averaged a robust 6.5 targets per game, which is elite territory for tight ends. The list of tight ends with more targets than him is: Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Hunter Henry, Evan Engram, and T.J. Hockenson. That's it. Of the production that Washington allows to skill-position players, tight ends have accounted for 20.7 percent of it, which ranks as the third-highest mark in football. The Steelers usually have a big pie among their skill-position players, so this is big for Ebron. There have only been five tight ends who've posted 10-plus PPR points against Washington, but there have only been four tight ends who've seen more than four targets against them. There's likely to be less volume to go around in this game, but Ebron should still remain in the low-end TE1 conversation.
6 hours ago
Keke Coutee Note
Keke Coutee photo 103. Keke Coutee WR - HOU (vs . IND)
Thank goodness Bill O'Brien isn't still the coach. He'd probably snag a few guys off the street rather than play Coutee. If you didn't watch the Thanksgiving game, you'd see Coutee's finishing line of 2/17/0 as horrendous, but he just missed what would have been a 40-yard completion, but the ball was slightly overthrown. Coutee has the speed (4.4) to stretch the field for Watson, even though many view him as a slot receiver. The Colts have allowed 33 pass plays of 20-plus yards, so even though they've been one of the better defenses in the league, they're not incapable of being beat down the field, and that's evidenced by the 14.16 yards per reception they've allowed, which ranks second in the NFL. I'm guessing they'll keep Coutee in his slot-heavy role, which would put him against Kenny Moore in the slot, who's been solid in coverage, allowing just 32-of-50 passing for 337 yards and two touchdowns on the season. There have been just seven wide receivers who've topped 70 yards against the Colts this year, so this doesn't set up for a big game out of Coutee, but he should be added in all leagues to see what Fuller's absence means for him in the pecking order.
6 hours ago
Josh Reynolds Note
Josh Reynolds photo 104. Josh Reynolds WR - LAR (at ARI)
It's now been five straight games where Reynolds has seen six-plus targets, which puts him on the fantasy map, though three of those games have netted 9.0 or less PPR points. Is the matchup against the Cardinals great enough to consider him? Probably not considering Reynolds plays almost all his snaps on the perimeter, which is where Patrick Peterson and Dre Kirkpatrick play, the Cardinals two top cornerbacks. Here's the list of perimeter-heavy wide receviers who've finished top-36 against them: Stefon Diggs, Amari Cooper, Kenny Golladay, and D.K. Metcalf. That's it. The only other perimeter receiver who totaled more than 51 yards was DeVante Parker, who caught six balls for 64 yards. Reynolds isn't a recommended start in this matchup.
5 hours ago
Michael Gallup Note
Michael Gallup photo 105. Michael Gallup WR - DAL (at BAL)
It's almost to the point where Gallup shouldn't even be considered, as he's had just one game all season with more than 13.1 PPR points, and that game came all the way back in Week 3 against the Seahawks. Outside of that game, he's failed to top 73 yards this year, and has finished with 41 yards or less in 6-of-11 contests. His 1.21 yards per route run ranks 47th of 53 wide receivers with 50-plus targets. When you add in a matchup with the Ravens, that's problematic. Gallup would be seeing one of Jimmy Smith or Marlon Humphrey most of the day, which is bad news no matter which one he gets, as Smith has allowed the fewest fantasy points per target in his coverage, while Humphrey has allowed just 370 scoreless yards on 60 targets in coverage. Think of Gallup the way you do Marquez Valdes-Scantling, only with a worse quarterback. To be clear, Gallup is the far superior player, but their roles are similar. He's a big-play-or-bust WR5 who's in a bad matchup.
6 hours ago
Brian Hill Note
Brian Hill photo 106. Brian Hill RB - ATL (vs . NO)
Raheem Morris said they're "hopeful" to get Gurley back this week, though that's hardly a guarantee. With him out of the lineup Hill and Smith shared the touches, though it was Smith who was more efficient, finishing with 75 total yards and a touchdown on 16 touches compared to Hill's 55 total yards on 13 touches. We could sit here and talk about what this timeshare is without Gurley, but it won't make much of a difference in Week 13, as you really don't want to play either of them against the Saints, who've allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs. The competition they've played isn't in question either, as running backs have averaged 6.9 fewer half-PPR points against the Saints than they do in non-Saints games. That's easily the biggest gap in the league. Of the production the Saints have allowed to skill-position players (63.0 PPR points per game), just 26.6 percent of it goes to running backs, which is the second-lowest percentage in football. There are just three teams in the NFL who've allowed fewer than 10.0 fantasy points per game on the ground to running backs. The Falcons, Saints, and Bucs. We know that touchdowns are important to production in this backfield by now, right? Well, the Saints have allowed just five total touchdowns to running backs this year, or one every 53.8 touches. Both of those are the best numbers in the league. They've allowed just 27 percent of carries inside the five-yard line be converted into touchdowns, which is the third-lowest percentage in the league, so even if Gurley plays, his touchdown-dependent stat lines are problematic. That should be enough for you to worry, but what about when I tell you they've allowed a league-low 1,049 total yards to running backs this year (95.4 per game)? When you factor in weighted opportunity, the Saints have allowed 8.6 percent fewer points per opportunity than any other team in the league. The average RB1 performance in 2019 was 17.2 PPR points. The Saints are the only team in the league who've yet to allow a running back hit that mark. Even if Gurley suits up, he's just a boring RB3 who will bust if he doesn't score. If he doesn't play, Smith would be the preferred option, as he at least gets passing-down usage, but he'd be just a low-end RB3/high-end RB4.
5 hours ago
Jonnu Smith Note
Jonnu Smith photo 107. Jonnu Smith TE - TEN (vs . CLE)
Smith is being asked to stay in and block a significant amount in this offense, which is rough to see from a fantasy perspective. Smith's one of the most talented receiving tight ends in the league, but he's not being utilized to his full potential in this offense. He now needs to be viewed as a touchdown-dependent TE2 each week. You can most likely find a more trustworthy option for your starting lineup.
1 day ago
Rashard Higgins Note
Rashard Higgins photo 108. Rashard Higgins WR - CLE (at TEN)
J.D. McKissic Note
J.D. McKissic photo 109. J.D. McKissic RB - WAS (at PIT)
It's happening. Gibson is getting the role we'd hoped he would as the season went on, as he played a career-high 45 snaps on Thanksgiving. He rewarded that trust with 136 total yards and three touchdowns against the Cowboys. Sure, Peyton Barber got 11 carries as well, but the game was out of reach rather quickly. We knew that matchup didn't favor McKissic's role, but he was still on the field for 28 snaps. Gamescript is still the biggest factor in determining how valuable each player will be. Opponents have put just 17.1 points per game up on the scoreboard against the Steelers, which is not what you want to see from a low-scoring offense like Washington. That has clearly affected the running backs and their production, as the Steelers have allowed the second-fewest PPR points per game to them (17.0 per game). Despite the Steelers winning every single one of their games and being ahead most of the time, running backs aren't targeted much against them. They have faced a league-low 14.8 percent of targets to the running back position, which doesn't bode well for Gibson or McKissic, though Smith has targeted running backs a ton. Washington is big underdogs in this game, right? This doesn't bode well for Gibson, who's really padded his stats in two wins over the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Steelers have allowed just one top-12 running back since the start of last year. Gibson had his breakout party last week, but he's likely to disappoint in this game. McKissic could have another one of his more relevant fantasy games here, though the lack of targets to running backs doesn't look great for him. But he's been on the field much more in the losses that Washington has had, so he can be considered a flex/high-end RB4 in this contest.
6 hours ago
Laviska Shenault Jr. Note
Laviska Shenault Jr. photo 110. Laviska Shenault Jr. WR - JAC (at MIN)
Mike Gesicki Note
Mike Gesicki photo 111. Mike Gesicki TE - MIA (vs . CIN)
It's kind of frustrating playing Gesicki this year, as both Adam Shaheen and Durham Smythe have been thorns in our sides. Those two combined for as many targets (5) as Gesicki last week. On the year, they've combined for five touchdowns, while Gesicki himself has three of them. Gesicki does lead all tight ends with an 11.1-yard average depth of target. Just two other tight ends have an average depth of target over 9.8 yards, so theoretically, his targets should be worth more than the average target to tight ends. The Bengals have faced a tight end target 23.3 percent of the time, which ranks as the fourth-most in the NFL. Those targets have been worthwhile too, as they've allowed a league-high 65.3 yards per game to tight ends. The Bengals are one of four teams in the league who've allowed four 15-plus point performances to tight ends. Even lowering the bar a bit, there have been seven tight ends who've cracked 10.6 PPR points, which is the average number of points it took to finish as a top-12 tight end last year. Even factoring the level of competition they've played, they rank as the eighth-best matchup for tight ends. Gesicki doesn't have the guaranteed targets that most tight ends inside the top-10 do, but he's close. Consider him a low-end TE1 for this week's game who comes with some upside if he gets the end zone targets instead of Shaheen and Smythe.
3 days ago
Anthony Miller Note
Anthony Miller photo 112. Anthony Miller WR - CHI (vs . DET)
I almost didn't write Miller up for this game because it's so hard to recommend playing him, but he has seen at least six targets in each of his last four games. Similar to Mooney, he's averaging a minuscule 6.0 yards per target, but the targets mean you should at least consider him. The Lions have been a matchup that Miller has done well with in their last two meetings, as he totaled 4/76/1 against them back in Week 1 and finished with 9/140/0 in Week 13 of last year. The Lions have been shifting cornerbacks around with the injuries to Jeff Okudah and Desmond Trufant, so it's tough to say which cornerback Miller will see in this game. Knowing the Lions have allowed 1.89 PPR points per target (7th-highest), Miller's targets need to be accounted for, putting him in the WR5 conversation.
6 hours ago
Le'Veon Bell Note
Le'Veon Bell photo 113. Le'Veon Bell RB - KC (vs . DEN)
I tried warning you about his matchup last week, and Edwards-Helaire completely bombed, finishing with a career-low 4.9 PPR points against the Bucs. When you're seeing the workload he is, those games are going to happen. Over the last five weeks with Bell in the lineup, Edwards-Helaire has averaged 8.8 carries and 3.0 targets per game. Didn't realize it was that low, did you? He's averaging a great 4.58 yards per carry on the year, so that's not the issue. This week's matchup could be one for you to like him a bit more, though. Despite the Broncos being one of the better pass defenses in the league, the Chiefs have an implied team total of 31.3 points, which bodes extremely well for Edwards-Helaire. The Broncos lost interior lineman Mike Purcell on the first drive of Week 7. They haven't been able to stop the run lately, and those eight touchdowns don't even count Taysom Hill's two rushing touchdowns last week. Opponents have averaged 27.2 carries per game against them over that time, which should allow Edwards-Helaire to get back into the 12-15 carry range for this game, which should be enough for him to get into RB2 territory. The Broncos have allowed just 1.28 PPR points per target to running backs, which ranks as the fourth-lowest mark in the league, so don't count on too much production there. I'd play Edwards-Helaire as a solid RB2 this week who has top-five upside in this matchup, though he needs more work. Bell hasn't topped nine touches in a Chiefs uniform, and based on his lack of efficiency, we shouldn't expect his touches to increase. He's just an RB4/handcuff.
5 hours ago
Gus Edwards Note
Gus Edwards photo 114. Gus Edwards RB - BAL (vs . DAL)
Ravens running backs are averaging 1.68 yards before contact, which is the second-highest number in the league, behind only the Cardinals. It would appear having a mobile quarterback helps. When you combined this with the fact that the Cowboys have allowed the most yards before contact, you have the recipe for major success. The only team who's allowed more yards on the ground than the Cowboys are the Texans. No other team is within 150 yards of those two teams. It surely helps that running backs have been able to accumulate 27.1 rushing attempts per game against them, which is enough to feel comfortable with a timeshare, which is something that may be a thing of the past if Dobbins returns to the role he had in Week 10. If you look at production on the ground alone, the Cowboys have allowed 215.8 fantasy points, or 19.6 points per game. They are one of just three teams who've allowed more than 16.5 points per game on the ground. Most of this stems from the fact that their opponents have chosen to run the ball 48.4 percent of the time (2nd-most), though efficiency has been there, too. We know the Ravens running backs aren't targeted much in the passing game, but it's even less likely they are against the Cowboys, who've seen a running back target on just 15.5 percent of pass attempts, tied for the third-lowest mark in the league. Even when they get targeted, it hasn't amounted to much, as the Cowboys have allowed a league-low 5.5 PPR points per game through the air to running backs. When you look at explosive performances against teams, I require 20-plus PPR points for running backs and wide receviers and 15-plus PPR points for tight ends. The Cowboys have allowed a league-high 15 explosive performances this year, so when you think about the Ravens, you want to find that gem for this game. I'm comfortable playing Dobbins as an RB2 this week who comes with top-five upside if he returns to his workhorse role. Edwards can fill an RB4 role, as it appeared like he passed Mark Ingram on the depth chart a few weeks ago.
6 hours ago
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Note
Marquez Valdes-Scantling photo 115. Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR - GB (vs . PHI)
When we heard that he was dealing with an Achilles injury mid-week, it seemed like he wouldn't play last week. He wasn't targeted at all, so clearly, he's playing through something. The Eagles have allowed just seven wide receivers to hit 11.2-plus PPR points against them this year, which is the lowest in the NFL. Why choose that specific point mark, Mike? Well, because that's the average number of points it took to finish as a top-36 wide receiver in 2019. If you were to look at the last seven teams the Eagles have played and add up their WR1, WR2, WR3, and TE1 yardage, none of the teams have surpassed 206 yards. When you have Davante Adams soaking up most of the production, that's problematic. Add in the injury Valdes-Scantling is dealing with and you have a fade.
5 hours ago
Noah Fant Note
Noah Fant photo 116. Noah Fant TE - DEN (at KC)
Removing last week from existence, Fant has totaled in-between 35-57 yards in seven games this season. He's also seen at least five targets in 8-of-9 games, which gives us what we want out of a tight end. If there's someone Fant would like to impress, it's the guy on the other sideline, who his game most resembles from the time they came into the league, as Kelce wasn't always a great blocker. When you adjust for the schedule they've played, the Chiefs are the eighth-best matchup for tight ends in PPR formats, as they average 12.5 percent more fantasy points against the Chiefs than they do in non-Chiefs games. Fant only totaled 3/38/0 on seven targets against them in the first game they played this year, but he was hobbling around all game as it was his first game back from his ankle injury. The game was also played in the snow. There have been five tight ends who've finished with at least five catches and 48 yards against them, which should present a decent floor for Fant in a game they fall behind. The 1.87 PPR points per target the Chiefs have allowed to tight ends is more than enough to go ahead and plug him in as a mid-to-low-end TE1.
5 hours ago
Travis Fulgham Note
Travis Fulgham photo 117. Travis Fulgham WR - PHI (at GB)
Well, this stinks. Reagor has gotten the targets we've expected (25 over the last four games) but production has been hard to come by. Sure, we knew Wentz was struggling but there are a lot of wide receivers who are producing with bad quarterback play, which is why it made sense for Reagor to turn things around. Jeffery didn't have a role on the team the last few weeks, but then ran more routes than Fulgham in Week 12, though neither of them produced. After flopping against the Seahawks, we've reached the end of the little trust we had in all Eagles receivers. The Packers have allowed the fifth-fewest yards per target (7.61) to wide receivers this year and have only allowed 149.4 wide receiver yards per game. Their opponents have lacked overall play volume, and it really makes sense to keep the ball on the ground against them. Reagor is still in WR5 territory due to the targets he's getting, but you're probably better off moving on. The others are waiver wire fodder right now.
5 hours ago
Malcolm Brown Note
Malcolm Brown photo 118. Malcolm Brown RB - LAR (at ARI)
We've talked about this backfield and it's unpredictability on a weekly basis. In fact, you may not be able to predict it from quarter-to-quarter, as Akers saw just one carry in the first half, but then saw eight of them in the second half. Over the last three weeks, here are the touches and yardages for each back: Henderson (28 - 61), Akers (25 - 141), and Brown (17 - 98). Akers has had the most success, but 61 of his yards came on one play. He's been stuck in the 5-10 carry range for the last month, so it's tough to see that changing overnight. The Cardinals haven't faced more than 21 carries by a team of running backs since way back in Week 7, which doesn't bode well for this timeshare. The good news is that the Cardinals have allowed a massive 2.44 yards before contact to ball carriers this year, which ranks as the fifth-most in the league, and much of that was with interior lineman Corey Peters in the lineup (he's out for the year). All in all, the Cardinals have faced 25.5 running back touches per game, so even if Akers were to get a bump into 40-45 percent of the touches (he's averaged 35.7 percent over the last three weeks), we're talking about 10-12 touches if that number holds true. There have been six running backs who've totaled 15-plus PPR points against the Cardinals, but five of them totaled at least 16 touches. Akers might be the preferred option right now, but he's still nothing more than an RB3 until we see him get a larger share of the touches. Henderson is still in the high-end RB4 conversation, as he's received the most touches over the last three games, and it's possible he is still the most valuable one, though he's been trending downward. Brown is seemingly an afterthought with Akers earning a bigger role.
5 hours ago
Russell Gage Note
Russell Gage photo 119. Russell Gage WR - ATL (vs . NO)
Damiere Byrd Note
Damiere Byrd photo 120. Damiere Byrd WR - NE (at LAC)
Kyle Rudolph Note
Kyle Rudolph photo 121. Kyle Rudolph TE - MIN (vs . JAC)
We've gone over this plenty of times throughout the year, but when both of these tight ends are active, it's going to be tough to trust them. With Thielen out, it became a bit more intriguing. When Smith was ruled out, Rudolph became a legitimate streamer. To be fair, we didn't know Cousins would throw the ball 45 times, but after watching Rudolph see eight targets, he's on everyone's radar. If there's a matchup to play borderline tight ends, it's this one against the Jaguars, as they've allowed a league-leading 2.33 PPR points per target to tight ends. You need to monitor the status of both Thielen and Smith, as both would cannibalize some of the role that we have with Rudolph. Tight ends have averaged just 6.2 targets per game against the Jaguars, which ranks as the ninth-fewest in the league, while the Vikings have targeted their tight ends just 5.7 times per game. Are you starting to see why it's going to be difficult to trust Rudolph with Smith in the lineup? If Smith misses, Rudolph would be a low-end TE1. If both play, they're both stuck in the TE2 territory as touchdown-or-bust options.
6 hours ago
Hunter Renfrow Note
Hunter Renfrow photo 122. Hunter Renfrow WR - LV (at NYJ)
With the Raiders playing catch up for the majority of last week's game, Renfrow was heavily targeted. The Raiders are unlikely to fall behind that badly yet again here against the Jets, but the matchup is fantastic. Due to the projected game-script, Renfrow can't be viewed any higher than a high-end FLEX play.
1 day ago
Austin Hooper Note
Austin Hooper photo 123. Austin Hooper TE - CLE (at TEN)
Hooper only saw two targets last week, but he made them count by finding the end zone. The minimal target share is concerning moving forward, but there aren't many tight ends who are seeing a significant and consistent target share every week. Hooper's worth plugging into your lineup again as a low-end TE1.
1 day ago
Emmanuel Sanders Note
Emmanuel Sanders photo 124. Emmanuel Sanders WR - NO (at ATL)
After a one-target game, you probably aren't considering Sanders an option, but knowing the Falcons stop the run well as well as they do, you might want to. The last time they played against the Falcons, he finished with four catches for 66 yards on just five targets, and it could've been much more than that had his 57-yard touchdown not gotten called back due to a penalty. The Falcons have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and have allowed 21 wide receivers finish as top-40 options against them. Sanders can be in the WR4/5 conversation despite his lack of targets in Week 12, but understand he comes with a lower floor than most in that range.
5 hours ago
Mecole Hardman Note
Mecole Hardman photo 125. Mecole Hardman WR - KC (vs . DEN)
KJ Hamler Note
KJ Hamler photo 126. KJ Hamler WR - DEN (at KC)
Ito Smith Note
Ito Smith photo 127. Ito Smith RB - ATL (vs . NO)
Raheem Morris said they're "hopeful" to get Gurley back this week, though that's hardly a guarantee. With him out of the lineup Hill and Smith shared the touches, though it was Smith who was more efficient, finishing with 75 total yards and a touchdown on 16 touches compared to Hill's 55 total yards on 13 touches. We could sit here and talk about what this timeshare is without Gurley, but it won't make much of a difference in Week 13, as you really don't want to play either of them against the Saints, who've allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs. The competition they've played isn't in question either, as running backs have averaged 6.9 fewer half-PPR points against the Saints than they do in non-Saints games. That's easily the biggest gap in the league. Of the production the Saints have allowed to skill-position players (63.0 PPR points per game), just 26.6 percent of it goes to running backs, which is the second-lowest percentage in football. There are just three teams in the NFL who've allowed fewer than 10.0 fantasy points per game on the ground to running backs. The Falcons, Saints, and Bucs. We know that touchdowns are important to production in this backfield by now, right? Well, the Saints have allowed just five total touchdowns to running backs this year, or one every 53.8 touches. Both of those are the best numbers in the league. They've allowed just 27 percent of carries inside the five-yard line be converted into touchdowns, which is the third-lowest percentage in the league, so even if Gurley plays, his touchdown-dependent stat lines are problematic. That should be enough for you to worry, but what about when I tell you they've allowed a league-low 1,049 total yards to running backs this year (95.4 per game)? When you factor in weighted opportunity, the Saints have allowed 8.6 percent fewer points per opportunity than any other team in the league. The average RB1 performance in 2019 was 17.2 PPR points. The Saints are the only team in the league who've yet to allow a running back hit that mark. Even if Gurley suits up, he's just a boring RB3 who will bust if he doesn't score. If he doesn't play, Smith would be the preferred option, as he at least gets passing-down usage, but he'd be just a low-end RB3/high-end RB4.
5 hours ago
Demarcus Robinson Note
Demarcus Robinson photo 128. Demarcus Robinson WR - KC (vs . DEN)
Tony Pollard Note
Tony Pollard photo 129. Tony Pollard RB - DAL (at BAL)
David Moore Note
David Moore photo 130. David Moore WR - SEA (vs . NYG)
Jordan Reed Note
Jordan Reed photo 131. Jordan Reed TE - SF (vs . BUF)
I don't know if there were just miscommunications between Reed and Mullens last week, but three of his six catches weren't even close. Reed does look good out there and they're lining him up all over the place. Seeing six targets is a very good thing, and that's a number he's hit in 4-of-5 games without George Kittle in the lineup. Reed was coming off a matchup against the Rams, who'd seen the highest percentage of tight end targets, and now he'll go against the Bills, who've seen the third-highest percentage of team targets. Of the production they've allowed to skill-position players, tight ends have accounted for 20.8 percent of it, which is the second-highest mark in the league. They've allowed 6.0 tight end receptions per game, which is the most in the NFL, while the 64.5 yards per game they've allowed is behind only the Bengals. There have been three tight ends who've been able to crack the 20-point PPR barrier against the Bills and another two who finished with 13.7-plus points. Even breaking it down to adjusted opponent rank (factors in the competition they've played this year), they rank as the third-best matchup for tight ends, as they've averaged 22.7 percent more PPR points against them than they do against their season average. Reed should be considered a TE1 this week.
1 day ago
Jakeem Grant Note
Jakeem Grant photo 132. Jakeem Grant WR - MIA (vs . CIN)
Jordan Wilkins Note
Jordan Wilkins photo 133. Jordan Wilkins RB - IND (at HOU)
Adrian Peterson Note
Adrian Peterson photo 134. Adrian Peterson RB - DET (at CHI)
Golden Tate Note
Golden Tate photo 135. Golden Tate WR - NYG (at SEA)
Joshua Kelley Note
Joshua Kelley photo 136. Joshua Kelley RB - LAC (vs . NE)
Jerick McKinnon Note
Jerick McKinnon photo 137. Jerick McKinnon RB - SF (vs . BUF)
Trey Burton Note
Trey Burton photo 138. Trey Burton TE - IND (at HOU)
He started out last week's game on fire, snagging three balls for 50 yards and a touchdown in the game's first 16 minutes, but he failed to do anything after that. He out-targeted Mo Alie-Cox in the game 6-2, but if you look at the routes run, you're not feeling great: Alie-Cox 23, Burton 21, Jack Doyle 11. This is a timeshare every single week and why we can never play a Colts tight end with much confidence, though we certainly want to try, as they've combined for seven performances with 9.8-plus PPR points. The Texans haven't allowed a lot of touchdowns (4) to tight ends, but the 58.7 yards per game they've allowed to them ranks as the third-most in the NFL, as does the 8.61 yards per target they've allowed to them. Over the last two weeks, we've watched Ryan Izzo and T.J. Hockenson combine for seven catches and 148 yards on just 10 targets, so it's not as if they're trending in the right direction, either. Football Outsiders has them ranked as the fifth-worst team in DVOA against tight ends, which factors in level of competition they've played. Knowing it's Burton who's seen 14 targets over the last three weeks while Alie-Cox has eight of them, I suppose Burton's the best bet, though the Colts have plus-matchups all over the field in this game, so he's just a middling TE2.
6 hours ago
Boston Scott Note
Boston Scott photo 139. Boston Scott RB - PHI (at GB)
We knew that teams didn't run the ball much against the Seahawks, but six carries? He also saw just three targets while Boston Scott saw six of them. Sanders has run just four more pass routes than Scott over the last two weeks. So, if there's a negative gamescript, do we suddenly have to worry about Sanders' role? In this game against the Packers, they're nearly 10-point underdogs, which could be an issue. When Doug Pederson said he wanted this to be more of a timeshare, we figured it had to do with Jordan Howard, who is on the practice squad. Now onto the good stuff for Sanders. Of the production the Packers have allowed to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, we've watched running backs account for a massive 41.3 percent of it, which is the highest percentage in football. The only other team that's allowed more than 37.3 percent is the Lions. It's due to success on both the ground and through the air, as they've allowed 4.65 yards per carry and 11 touchdowns there, and they're not getting better. They just allowed David Montgomery to rush for 103 yards on 11 carries, which seems impossible. He was the four running back who's topped 100 yards on the ground against them. Running backs have also been targeted 22.1 percent of the time against the Packers, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league. It's not just volume, either, as the 7.42 yards per target that running backs have averaged against them is head and shoulders above everyone else in the league (closest is 6.96 YPT). Because of that, running backs have averaged a league-leading 14.4 PPR points per game through the air alone against the Packers. Sanders should be able to run all over them, but that requires Doug Pederson to actually run the ball. Plug Sanders in as a low-end RB1 and hope for the best. The matchup really does allow for him to have a big week. As for Scott, he obviously benefits from a negative gamescript, but trusting him as anything more than an RB4 would likely be a mistake, as he's seen just 20 total opportunities over the last three weeks combined (since Sanders came back to the lineup).
5 hours ago
Dalton Schultz Note
Dalton Schultz photo 140. Dalton Schultz TE - DAL (at BAL)
There are only a handful of tight ends who can say they're averaging six targets per game this year, but Schultz is one of them. He's finished with 22-53 yards in each of the last six games without Dak Prescott, which is presenting some sort of floor, though the ceiling is lacking, especially knowing this offense has averaged just 14.7 points per game without Prescott. Now going to play the Ravens, a team that allows just 19.5 points per game (third-lowest mark in NFL), those ceiling concerns aren't going away. I will say, however, that the tight end position is the one who's been least affected by the matchup. They've been a pretty average team against the position, allowing 6.72 yards per target and a 67.8 percent catch-rate to tight ends, which are both in line with the league averages, but the volume has been slightly above average, as tight ends have seen 7.9 targets per game against them. No tight end has finished with more than 14.8 PPR points against them, but seven tight ends have been able to finish with at least 10.3 PPR points. Those are not bad outcomes for someone like Schultz, who should be considered a mid-to-high-end TE2 for this game.
6 hours ago
C.J. Prosise Note
C.J. Prosise photo 141. C.J. Prosise RB - HOU (vs . IND)
Zach Pascal Note
Zach Pascal photo 142. Zach Pascal WR - IND (at HOU)
Jordan Akins Note
Jordan Akins photo 143. Jordan Akins TE - HOU (vs . IND)
There were some who believed that with Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills out, we might see more of Akins in the offensive gameplan. Nope. He was targeted just twice against the Lions, and though they were both in the end zone, he couldn't haul either of them in (one was a drop). When you've seen more than four targets just twice all year, you need to make the most of your opportunities. Will he get more with Fuller out of the lineup? The targets have to go somewhere. Unfortunately, it's not a great week to consider him against a Colts team that's allowed just 1.21 PPR points per target to tight ends. It's not just lack of touchdowns either, as they've allowed just 5.31 yards per target, which is the second-lowest mark in the league. The competition they've played hasn't been all that great, but still, tight ends have averaged 35.7 percent fewer PPR points against the Colts than they do on the season, which makes it the fifth-toughest schedule adjusted matchup for tight ends. Like I said, the targets have to go somewhere, which is why Akins should definitely be added for those who constantly stream tight ends, but this matchup keeps him well into the TE2 range. All we want to see is targets this week.
6 hours ago
Logan Thomas Note
Logan Thomas photo 144. Logan Thomas TE - WAS (at PIT)
There's a consistent role for Thomas in this offense, as he's finished in-between 4-6 targets in each of his last eight games. He hasn't been the most efficient tight end in the league while averaging just 5.5 yards per target, but he's now scored in three of his last six games, and Ron Rivera singled him out during an interview this week, saying he's had an "a ha" moment. The issue with expecting him for another streamer-worthy week? A matchup with the Steelers, the toughest one in the league for tight ends. When playing against the Steelers, tight ends are averaging 4.7 fewer half PPR points against them than they've averaged in non-Steelers games. There's legitimately not a worse matchup in the league. From an efficiency standpoint, the Steelers have allowed a league-low 1.06 PPR points per target. There's just one other team in the league (Colts) who've allowed fewer than 1.41 PPR points per target to the position.
6 hours ago
Alexander Mattison Note
Alexander Mattison photo 145. Alexander Mattison RB - MIN (vs . JAC)
Todd Gurley II Note
Todd Gurley II photo 146. Todd Gurley II RB - ATL (vs . NO)
Raheem Morris said they're "hopeful" to get Gurley back this week, though that's hardly a guarantee. With him out of the lineup Hill and Smith shared the touches, though it was Smith who was more efficient, finishing with 75 total yards and a touchdown on 16 touches compared to Hill's 55 total yards on 13 touches. We could sit here and talk about what this timeshare is without Gurley, but it won't make much of a difference in Week 13, as you really don't want to play either of them against the Saints, who've allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs. The competition they've played isn't in question either, as running backs have averaged 6.9 fewer half-PPR points against the Saints than they do in non-Saints games. That's easily the biggest gap in the league. Of the production the Saints have allowed to skill-position players (63.0 PPR points per game), just 26.6 percent of it goes to running backs, which is the second-lowest percentage in football. There are just three teams in the NFL who've allowed fewer than 10.0 fantasy points per game on the ground to running backs. The Falcons, Saints, and Bucs. We know that touchdowns are important to production in this backfield by now, right? Well, the Saints have allowed just five total touchdowns to running backs this year, or one every 53.8 touches. Both of those are the best numbers in the league. They've allowed just 27 percent of carries inside the five-yard line be converted into touchdowns, which is the third-lowest percentage in the league, so even if Gurley plays, his touchdown-dependent stat lines are problematic. That should be enough for you to worry, but what about when I tell you they've allowed a league-low 1,049 total yards to running backs this year (95.4 per game)? When you factor in weighted opportunity, the Saints have allowed 8.6 percent fewer points per opportunity than any other team in the league. The average RB1 performance in 2019 was 17.2 PPR points. The Saints are the only team in the league who've yet to allow a running back hit that mark. Even if Gurley suits up, he's just a boring RB3 who will bust if he doesn't score.
2 days ago
Kerryon Johnson Note
Kerryon Johnson photo 147. Kerryon Johnson RB - DET (at CHI)
KhaDarel Hodge Note
KhaDarel Hodge photo 148. KhaDarel Hodge WR - CLE (at TEN)
Gerald Everett Note
Gerald Everett photo 149. Gerald Everett TE - LAR (at ARI)
Over the last three weeks, we've watched Higbee run 65 routes while Everett has run 58 of them. Their stat lines are Higbee 8/85/0 and Everett 8/70/0. Good times. Since Higbee's big three-touchdown game in Week 2, there have been just two double-digit PPR performances out of Rams tight ends, and both were Everett. Whatever the case, it's not a tight end unit you need to attack unless it's an obviously great matchup. The Cardinals are no longer the defense you target with tight ends, as they've held tight ends to just 9.5 PPR points per game, which is the sixth-fewest in the league. It's not even due to a lack of trying by opposing teams, because the 1.47 PPR points per game they've allowed ranks as the fifth-fewest. There has been no starting tight end who's finished with more than 9.8 PPR points in a game against them this year, which is quite the departure from the team that allowed 13 top-10 tight end performances. Unless one of these tight ends misses time, you don't want to try and predict which one might have success. In this game, it's probably neither of them.
5 hours ago
Jimmy Graham Note
Jimmy Graham photo 150. Jimmy Graham TE - CHI (vs . DET)
The Bears have started to include rookie Cole Kmet a bit more in their offense the last few weeks, and that's led to Graham losing his target floor. He's seen just six targets over the last two games, which is hardly enough to consider him as a must-start, so you need a great matchup. Tight ends have been targeted just 15.3 percent of the time against the Lions, which ranks as the second-lowest mark in the league. The team Graham played last week (Packers) had seen the third-fewest targets. Then you look at the fact that tight ends have accounted for just 11.4 percent of the fantasy production by skill-position players against the Lions (2nd-lowest in NFL), and you have a lot of concern for Graham's production in this game. Those lack of targets show up in the box score, as tight ends have caught just 56.9 percent of their targets and combined to average a league-low 3.0 receptions per game. If Graham doesn't score, he's going to hurt your fantasy team, which puts him in the lower end of the TE2 discussion.
6 hours ago
Tyler Eifert Note
Tyler Eifert photo 151. Tyler Eifert TE - JAC (at MIN)
The good news is that he scored a touchdown in a great matchup last week. The bad news is that he split the targets with James O'Shaughnessy and finished with just 16 yards. He has seen 18 targets over the last four weeks, so he's not the worst option for desperate fantasy managers looking for a streamer, though he doesn't offer much of a ceiling (hasn't topped 48 yards all year). The Vikings have allowed a league-high 9.03 yards per target, but teams haven't felt it necessary to pepper them with targets, as they've averaged just 5.9 targets per game. But again, with the efficiency they've had, we've seen six tight ends finish with 11-plus PPR points against them. It's worth noting that five of those tight ends saw at least six targets, a mark that Eifert has hit three times this season, but all those games came over the first five weeks of the season. If you're in a league that starts two tight ends, Eifert can be played as a top-24 option at the position, but his lack of ceiling doesn't make him a very enticing streamer in standard leagues.
6 hours ago
A.J. Green Note
A.J. Green photo 152. A.J. Green WR - CIN (at MIA)
Richie James Jr. Note
Richie James Jr. photo 153. Richie James Jr. WR - SF (vs . BUF)
Mark Ingram II Note
Mark Ingram II photo 154. Mark Ingram II RB - BAL (vs . DAL)
Jared Cook Note
Jared Cook photo 155. Jared Cook TE - NO (at ATL)
We can put Cook in the "do not start" category moving forward, and to be fair, he's been there the last few weeks. He hasn't seen more than three targets or topped 30 yards since way back in Week 8, which is no coincidence since he hasn't played more than 26 snaps since that game. It stinks because tight ends have averaged 4.8 more half-PPR points per game against the Falcons than they do in non-Falcons games, which is the largest difference in the league. Despite the blunder by the Raiders last week, the Falcons have still allowed more fantasy points per game than any other team in the league. But again, Cook isn't playing enough to consider as anything more than a hail-mary tournament play.
5 hours ago
Tyler Higbee Note
Tyler Higbee photo 156. Tyler Higbee TE - LAR (at ARI)
Over the last three weeks, we've watched Higbee run 65 routes while Everett has run 58 of them. Their stat lines are Higbee 8/85/0 and Everett 8/70/0. Good times. Since Higbee's big three-touchdown game in Week 2, there have been just two double-digit PPR performances out of Rams tight ends, and both were Everett. Whatever the case, it's not a tight end unit you need to attack unless it's an obviously great matchup. The Cardinals are no longer the defense you target with tight ends, as they've held tight ends to just 9.5 PPR points per game, which is the sixth-fewest in the league. It's not even due to a lack of trying by opposing teams, because the 1.47 PPR points per game they've allowed ranks as the fifth-fewest. There has been no starting tight end who's finished with more than 9.8 PPR points in a game against them this year, which is quite the departure from the team that allowed 13 top-10 tight end performances. Unless one of these tight ends misses time, you don't want to try and predict which one might have success. In this game, it's probably neither of them.
5 hours ago
Zach Ertz Note
Zach Ertz photo 157. Zach Ertz TE - PHI (at GB)
It seems likely that Ertz will return this week, removing some of the luster around Goedert as a must-play TE1, though there has been enough room for two tight ends in this offense. Goedert and Richard Rodgers have combined for 34 targets, 25 receptions, 346 yards, and four touchdowns over the last three weeks. How is that possible with Wentz playing the way he has? Good question. All their production is being funneled through the tight ends. Similar to the matchup they had last week, the Packers have seen a tight end targeted on just 15.6 percent of passes this year, which ranks as the third-fewest in the NFL. But this is where the heavy targets of the Eagles come into play, as the Packers have allowed 8.00 yards per target to tight ends when they do get targeted, which is the seventh-most in the league. Is there a reason tight ends haven't been targeted much against the Packers or is it just the competition they've played? The three big-name tight ends they've played have been Rob Gronkowski (5/78/1), T.J. Hockenson (4/62/0), and Hayden Hurst (4/51/0), so it wasn't all that bad. Football Outsiders has them ranked as the 15th-toughest matchup for tight ends, so it's not bad as long as you're targeted. Goedert should remain in lineups as a TE1 unless he gives us a reason not to. Provided Ertz returns, he'll be in the high-end TE2 conversation just because he comes with a bit more risk in his first game back.
5 hours ago
Anthony McFarland Jr. Note
Anthony McFarland Jr. photo 158. Anthony McFarland Jr. RB - PIT (vs . WAS)
Cam Sims Note
Cam Sims photo 159. Cam Sims WR - WAS (at PIT)
Matt Breida Note
Matt Breida photo 160. Matt Breida RB - MIA (vs . CIN)
Jacob Hollister Note
Jacob Hollister photo 161. Jacob Hollister TE - SEA (vs . NYG)
Well, we were right about Dissly playing more snaps as the primary tight end with Greg Olsen out of the lineup, but Hollister ran just as many routes as Dissly did, and he saw all five targets that Wilson directed at his tight ends. That's eight targets over the last two weeks while Dissly has seen just one. This will likely even out with Dissly on the field as the full-time player, but it's Hollister as the primary pass-catcher for now. The Giants have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, so it's not like it's a matchup you need to attack anyway. They've seen just 6.5 targets per game to tight ends, and those targets have netted just 49.6 yards per game and two touchdowns over 11 games. They have allowed four top-12 performances to tight ends this year, but two of those tight ends only got there because of touchdowns. You shouldn't be trusting either of these tight ends as a streamer right now.
5 hours ago
Collin Johnson Note
Collin Johnson photo 162. Collin Johnson WR - JAC (at MIN)
Jalen Guyton Note
Jalen Guyton photo 163. Jalen Guyton WR - LAC (vs . NE)
Dez Bryant Note
Dez Bryant photo 164. Dez Bryant WR - BAL (vs . DAL)
Jeff Wilson Jr. Note
Jeff Wilson Jr. photo 165. Jeff Wilson Jr. RB - SF (vs . BUF)
Marvin Hall Note
Marvin Hall photo 166. Marvin Hall WR - DET (at CHI)
Alshon Jeffery Note
Alshon Jeffery photo 167. Alshon Jeffery WR - PHI (at GB)
Well, this stinks. Reagor has gotten the targets we've expected (25 over the last four games) but production has been hard to come by. Sure, we knew Wentz was struggling but there are a lot of wide receivers who are producing with bad quarterback play, which is why it made sense for Reagor to turn things around. Jeffery didn't have a role on the team the last few weeks, but then ran more routes than Fulgham in Week 12, though neither of them produced. After flopping against the Seahawks, we've reached the end of the little trust we had in all Eagles receivers. The Packers have allowed the fifth-fewest yards per target (7.61) to wide receivers this year and have only allowed 149.4 wide receiver yards per game. Their opponents have lacked overall play volume, and it really makes sense to keep the ball on the ground against them. Reagor is still in WR5 territory due to the targets he's getting, but you're probably better off moving on. The others are waiver wire fodder right now.
5 hours ago
Andy Isabella Note
Andy Isabella photo 168. Andy Isabella WR - ARI (vs . LAR)
DeAndre Washington Note
DeAndre Washington photo 169. DeAndre Washington RB - MIA (vs . CIN)
Mo Alie-Cox Note
Mo Alie-Cox photo 170. Mo Alie-Cox TE - IND (at HOU)
Royce Freeman Note
Royce Freeman photo 171. Royce Freeman RB - DEN (at KC)
Samaje Perine Note
Samaje Perine photo 172. Samaje Perine RB - CIN (at MIA)
Drew Sample Note
Drew Sample photo 173. Drew Sample TE - CIN (at MIA)
He saw five targets in Brandon Allen's first start, which accounted for a solid 17.2 percent target share. It was just the fourth time this year where Sample has seen five-plus targets, so he's not completely off the map, but rather someone who comes with a high degree of variance. It should be noted that he's totaled at least 40 yards in each of those four games. The Dolphins are not a team to attack with borderline streamers, though. There's been just one tight end all season who's reached double-digit PPR points against them, and it was Hunter Henry who totaled just 30 yards... but he scored a touchdown. Just one tight end has topped 44 yards against them all year, and it was Noah Fant with 55 of them. Sample isn't someone you should be looking to stream this week.
6 hours ago
Dawson Knox Note
Dawson Knox photo 174. Dawson Knox TE - BUF (at SF)
Jeremy McNichols Note
Jeremy McNichols photo 175. Jeremy McNichols RB - TEN (vs . CLE)
Will Dissly Note
Will Dissly photo 176. Will Dissly TE - SEA (vs . NYG)
Well, we were right about Dissly playing more snaps as the primary tight end with Greg Olsen out of the lineup, but Hollister ran just as many routes as Dissly did, and he saw all five targets that Wilson directed at his tight ends. That's eight targets over the last two weeks while Dissly has seen just one. This will likely even out with Dissly on the field as the full-time player, but it's Hollister as the primary pass-catcher for now. The Giants have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, so it's not like it's a matchup you need to attack anyway. They've seen just 6.5 targets per game to tight ends, and those targets have netted just 49.6 yards per game and two touchdowns over 11 games. They have allowed four top-12 performances to tight ends this year, but two of those tight ends only got there because of touchdowns. You shouldn't be trusting either of these tight ends as a streamer right now.
5 hours ago
Cordarrelle Patterson Note
Cordarrelle Patterson photo 177. Cordarrelle Patterson WR,RB - CHI (vs . DET)
D'Onta Foreman Note
D'Onta Foreman photo 178. D'Onta Foreman RB - TEN (vs . CLE)
Olabisi Johnson Note
Olabisi Johnson photo 179. Olabisi Johnson WR - MIN (vs . JAC)
Jack Doyle Note
Jack Doyle photo 180. Jack Doyle TE - IND (at HOU)
Peyton Barber Note
Peyton Barber photo 181. Peyton Barber RB - WAS (at PIT)
Darren Fells Note
Darren Fells photo 182. Darren Fells TE - HOU (vs . IND)
N'Keal Harry Note
N'Keal Harry photo 183. N'Keal Harry WR - NE (at LAC)
Chris Herndon IV Note
Chris Herndon IV photo 184. Chris Herndon IV TE - NYJ (vs . LV)
So much for potentially building some momentum, eh? After his three-target game in Week 11 where he scored, Herndon went back to more of the 2020 version of himself in Week 12, finishing with as many targets as you and I had. Zero. It's not like this matchup is one to target with tight ends, either. Outside of Travis Kelce, they've allowed just one tight end to top 9.3 PPR points.
8 hours ago
Darrel Williams Note
Darrel Williams photo 185. Darrel Williams RB - KC (vs . DEN)
Anthony Firkser Note
Anthony Firkser photo 186. Anthony Firkser TE - TEN (vs . CLE)
Isaiah Coulter Note
Isaiah Coulter photo 187. Isaiah Coulter WR - HOU (vs . IND)
Greg Ward Note
Greg Ward photo 188. Greg Ward WR - PHI (at GB)
James Washington Note
James Washington photo 189. James Washington WR - PIT (vs . WAS)
Kendrick Bourne Note
Kendrick Bourne photo 190. Kendrick Bourne WR - SF (vs . BUF)
Mark Andrews Note
Mark Andrews photo 191. Mark Andrews TE - BAL (vs . DAL)
For now, we'll assume that Andrews returns to the team, though it's clearly a situation to monitor throughout the week. It stinks Andrews had to stop right when he was getting heated up, as he's caught 12-of-16 targets for 157 yards and a touchdown over the last two games. I'm guessing he'll pick up right where he left off against the Cowboys. They've allowed a massive 77.4 percent completion-rate (third-highest), as well as a touchdown every 10.3 targets (fifth-most often) to tight ends, which has amounted to 2.09 PPR points per target, which is the fourth-most in football. Every tight end who's seen more than four targets has finished with 11-plus PPR points against them. Andrews should be locked in as a high-end TE1 as long as he's active and on the field.
6 hours ago
Steven Sims Note
Steven Sims photo 192. Steven Sims WR - WAS (at PIT)
Chad Beebe Note
Chad Beebe photo 193. Chad Beebe WR - MIN (vs . JAC)
Willie Snead IV Note
Willie Snead IV photo 194. Willie Snead IV WR - BAL (vs . DAL)
Ty Johnson Note
Ty Johnson photo 195. Ty Johnson RB - NYJ (vs . LV)
Mack Hollins Note
Mack Hollins photo 196. Mack Hollins WR - MIA (vs . CIN)
Tre'Quan Smith Note
Tre'Quan Smith photo 197. Tre'Quan Smith WR - NO (at ATL)
Alfred Morris Note
Alfred Morris photo 198. Alfred Morris RB - NYG (at SEA)
Trayveon Williams Note
Trayveon Williams photo 199. Trayveon Williams RB - CIN (at MIA)
Devine Ozigbo Note
Devine Ozigbo photo 200. Devine Ozigbo RB - JAC (at MIN)
Sony Michel Note
Sony Michel photo 201. Sony Michel RB - NE (at LAC)
Patrick Laird Note
Patrick Laird photo 202. Patrick Laird RB - MIA (vs . CIN)
Mohamed Sanu Note
Mohamed Sanu photo 203. Mohamed Sanu WR - DET (at CHI)
Dion Lewis Note
Dion Lewis photo 204. Dion Lewis RB - NYG (at SEA)
Kenny Golladay Note
Kenny Golladay photo 205. Kenny Golladay WR - DET (at CHI)
He's now missed four straight games with his hip issue, and knowing the Lions are a team that's seemingly out of the playoff race, we shouldn't expect him to try and push through an injury. Stay tuned as the week goes on. Does the fact that he "liked" an Instagram post about Patricia getting fired help matters? Can't hurt, I suppose. Golladay ranks fourth among all wide receivers, averaging a robust 2.47 yards per route run. There hasn't been a whole lot of fantasy production for skill-position players against the Bears to begin with (66.6 PPR points per game), and wide receivers have accounted for just 45.1 percent of it, which ranks as the lowest mark in the league. It doesn't help Golladay's cause to know the Bears have allowed just a 59.6 percent catch-rate to wide receivers, which is the third-lowest mark in the league. Golladay himself averages just a 58.1 percent catch-rate over the course of his career and relies on winning contested catches. In two games against the Bears last year, he posted 3/57/1 in the first game, and then 4/158/1 in the second one, so big plays were clearly necessary. The Bears defense has allowed just four pass plays of 40-plus yards this year, which ranks as the fourth-fewest. There have been just four wide receivers who've posted more than 81 yards against the Bears, and all of them totaled at least nine targets, a number that may seem unrealistic in Golladay's first game back. If he plays, Golladay should be considered a risk/reward WR3 against this tough secondary.
6 hours ago
Tyron Johnson Note
Tyron Johnson photo 206. Tyron Johnson WR - LAC (vs . NE)
Troymaine Pope Note
Troymaine Pope photo 207. Troymaine Pope RB - LAC (vs . NE)
Corey Clement Note
Corey Clement photo 208. Corey Clement RB - PHI (at GB)
Justice Hill Note
Justice Hill photo 209. Justice Hill RB - BAL (vs . DAL)
Christian Blake Note
Christian Blake photo 210. Christian Blake WR - ATL (vs . NO)
Phillip Lindsay Note
Phillip Lindsay photo 211. Phillip Lindsay RB - DEN (at KC)
Larry Fitzgerald Note
Larry Fitzgerald photo 212. Larry Fitzgerald WR - ARI (vs . LAR)
Quintez Cephus Note
Quintez Cephus photo 213. Quintez Cephus WR - DET (at CHI)
Equanimeous St. Brown Note
Equanimeous St. Brown photo 214. Equanimeous St. Brown WR - GB (vs . PHI)
Adam Humphries Note
Adam Humphries photo 215. Adam Humphries WR - TEN (vs . CLE)
Devin Duvernay Note
Devin Duvernay photo 216. Devin Duvernay WR - BAL (vs . DAL)
Bryan Edwards Note
Bryan Edwards photo 217. Bryan Edwards WR - LV (at NYJ)
Jalen Richard Note
Jalen Richard photo 218. Jalen Richard RB - LV (at NYJ)
Kyle Juszczyk Note
Kyle Juszczyk photo 219. Kyle Juszczyk RB - SF (vs . BUF)
Ray-Ray McCloud Note
Ray-Ray McCloud photo 220. Ray-Ray McCloud WR - PIT (vs . WAS)
Miles Boykin Note
Miles Boykin photo 221. Miles Boykin WR - BAL (vs . DAL)
Cedrick Wilson Note
Cedrick Wilson photo 222. Cedrick Wilson WR - DAL (at BAL)
Josh Adams Note
Josh Adams photo 223. Josh Adams RB - NYJ (vs . LV)
Dan Arnold Note
Dan Arnold photo 224. Dan Arnold TE - ARI (vs . LAR)
We've still yet to see a Cardinals tight end finish with more than 9.1 PPR points in a single game. A big part of that is due to the fact that none of them have ever seen more than four targets. No matter how good the matchup, you cannot trust any of them.
5 hours ago
Salvon Ahmed Note
Salvon Ahmed photo 225. Salvon Ahmed RB - MIA (vs . CIN)
Both these running backs were ruled out late in the week, so I'm guessing they both have a shot to play this week, though Gaskin seems like the safer bet. He's also the one who'll likely have the bigger role, so he's the one we really care about. The Bengals have allowed ball carriers 2.46 yards before contact this year, which ranks as the third-most in football. That's led to them allowing a massive 5.07 yards per carry, which ranks as the second-highest mark in football. It'A also good to know that Gaskin has averaged a team-high 2.58 yards after contact. Running backs haven't been targeted much against the Bengals, receiving just a 15.5 percent target share, which ranks as the third-lowest in football. Because of that, they've averaged just 7.1 PPR points per game through the air, which ranks as the fourth-lowest mark in football. There have been nine running backs who've totaled at least 16 touches against the Bengals, and each one of them were able to total at least 87 total yards, while five of them were able to find the end zone. Gaskin had totaled at least 21 touches in each of the last three games he played, and it seems like the Dolphins wanted to hold him out until he was 100 percent, so if he's active, he should probably be in lineups as a high-end RB3 because he does come with a little bit of risk as a running back coming off a multi-week injury. As for Ahmed, he'd likely fall into the 5-10 touch range, though Matt Breida has been used in some sort of role throughout the year, so we really don't know what the split would look like.
6 hours ago
Marcus Johnson Note
Marcus Johnson photo 226. Marcus Johnson WR - IND (at HOU)
DeeJay Dallas Note
DeeJay Dallas photo 227. DeeJay Dallas RB - SEA (vs . NYG)
Alec Ingold Note
Alec Ingold photo 228. Alec Ingold RB - LV (at NYJ)
James Conner Note
James Conner photo 229. James Conner RB - PIT (vs . WAS)
Why haven't the Steelers run the ball more? Well, part of it is due to the fact that their offensive line just isn't getting much push. Conner and the Steelers backs have averaged just 1.12 yards before contact, which ranks third-lowest mark in the NFL. That's not something they're used to, but the passing game has been working, so there's not much of a reason to force the issue with Conner. So, if the Steelers will throw the ball a lot, can we rely on Conner to catch quite a few passes? Not really. Running backs may be asked to stay in and block against Washington's fierce pass-rush, which could be the reason for them seeing just 15.8 percent of the targets against them (sixth-fewest in NFL). Running backs haven't seen much volume against Washington in general, as running backs have combined to average 25.7 touches per game. Knowing Conner concedes some work to the other backs, combined with the fact that he'd be coming off COVID, we could see them split the workload a bit more. All in all, running backs have faced the second-least amount of weighted volume against Washington, behind only the Steelers themselves. With just one running back topping 86 rushing yards against them all year, it's not an obvious great spot for Conner to get back on track, which makes him a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 this week. If he had to miss another week, Benny Snell would jump right into his spot in the rankings.
6 hours ago
Jaylen Samuels Note
Jaylen Samuels photo 230. Jaylen Samuels RB - PIT (vs . WAS)
Ryan Nall Note
Ryan Nall photo 231. Ryan Nall RB - CHI (vs . DET)
Cole Kmet Note
Cole Kmet photo 232. Cole Kmet TE - CHI (vs . DET)
Jakob Johnson Note
Jakob Johnson photo 233. Jakob Johnson RB,TE - NE (at LAC)
Brandon Powell Note
Brandon Powell photo 234. Brandon Powell WR - ATL (vs . NO)
Dare Ogunbowale Note
Dare Ogunbowale photo 235. Dare Ogunbowale RB - JAC (at MIN)
Buddy Howell Note
Buddy Howell photo 236. Buddy Howell RB - HOU (vs . IND)
Dwayne Washington Note
Dwayne Washington photo 237. Dwayne Washington RB - NO (at ATL)
D'Ernest Johnson Note
D'Ernest Johnson photo 238. D'Ernest Johnson RB - CLE (at TEN)
Antonio Callaway Note
Antonio Callaway photo 239. Antonio Callaway WR - MIA (vs . CIN)
Kalen Ballage Note
Kalen Ballage photo 240. Kalen Ballage RB - LAC (vs . NE)
C.J. Ham Note
C.J. Ham photo 241. C.J. Ham RB - MIN (vs . JAC)
Ameer Abdullah Note
Ameer Abdullah photo 242. Ameer Abdullah RB - MIN (vs . JAC)
Elijhaa Penny Note
Elijhaa Penny photo 243. Elijhaa Penny RB - NYG (at SEA)
Lynn Bowden Jr. Note
Lynn Bowden Jr. photo 244. Lynn Bowden Jr. WR,RB - MIA (vs . CIN)
AJ Dillon Note
AJ Dillon photo 245. AJ Dillon RB - GB (vs . PHI)
Tyler Ervin Note
Tyler Ervin photo 246. Tyler Ervin RB - GB (vs . PHI)
Richard Rodgers Note
Richard Rodgers photo 247. Richard Rodgers TE - PHI (at GB)
Darwin Thompson Note
Darwin Thompson photo 248. Darwin Thompson RB - KC (vs . DEN)
Ross Dwelley Note
Ross Dwelley photo 249. Ross Dwelley TE - SF (vs . BUF)
James O'Shaughnessy Note
James O'Shaughnessy photo 250. James O'Shaughnessy TE - JAC (at MIN)
Harrison Bryant Note
Harrison Bryant photo 251. Harrison Bryant TE - CLE (at TEN)
Devonta Freeman Note
Devonta Freeman photo 252. Devonta Freeman RB - NYG (at SEA)
Adam Shaheen Note
Adam Shaheen photo 253. Adam Shaheen TE - MIA (vs . CIN)
Durham Smythe Note
Durham Smythe photo 254. Durham Smythe TE - MIA (vs . CIN)
Dontrelle Inman Note
Dontrelle Inman photo 255. Dontrelle Inman WR - WAS (at PIT)
Isaiah McKenzie Note
Isaiah McKenzie photo 256. Isaiah McKenzie WR - BUF (at SF)
Jesse James Note
Jesse James photo 257. Jesse James TE - DET (at CHI)
Luke Willson Note
Luke Willson photo 258. Luke Willson TE - BAL (vs . DAL)
David Njoku Note
David Njoku photo 259. David Njoku TE - CLE (at TEN)
Geoff Swaim Note
Geoff Swaim photo 260. Geoff Swaim TE - TEN (vs . CLE)
David Johnson Note
David Johnson photo 261. David Johnson RB - HOU (vs . IND)
We're expecting David back to the lineup this week after missing three games due to his concussion he suffered back in Week 9. It seemed like Duke injured himself early in the Thanksgiving game, which led to C.J. Prosise stealing some work, though Duke did wind up playing 42-of-56 snaps and posting 80 total yards with a touchdown. It's clear they didn't want him taking over David's role, which has netted 16.7 touches per game this year. He's not returning to a matchup that should get you excited, though. The Colts have allowed ball carriers just 1.13 yards before contact this year, which is the third-lowest mark in the league. This is bad news for Johnson. There have been 64 running backs who've rushed 50-plus times this year, and Johnson's 2.13 yards after contact ranks 62nd on that last, behind only Peyton Barber and Devonta Freeman. Sure, Derrick Henry ran all over them last week, but they were without their best defensive lineman (DeForest Buckner) and one of their starting linebackers (Bobby Okereke) for that game. Henry is also the only running back to run for 100-plus yards against the Colts under Matt Eberflus (span of 43 games). In fact, Henry is the only one who's topped 72 yards on the ground against them this year. In non-Henry games, the Colts have allowed just 641 rushing yards on 196 carries with five rushing touchdowns. That's just 3.27 yards per carry and 71.2 rushing yards per game, and that's to entire teams of running backs. Even factoring in schedule adjusted fantasy points, the Colts rank as the fifth-toughest matchup for running backs. David should return to 15 touches but they're not likely to net a whole bunch of yardage, putting him in that high-end RB3 territory without much of a ceiling. If he can't go, Duke would take his spot in the rankings.
6 hours ago
Malcolm Perry Note
Malcolm Perry photo 262. Malcolm Perry RB,WR - MIA (vs . CIN)
Maxx Williams Note
Maxx Williams photo 263. Maxx Williams TE - ARI (vs . LAR)
Steven Mitchell Jr. Note
Steven Mitchell Jr. photo 264. Steven Mitchell Jr. WR - HOU (vs . IND)
Ryan Izzo Note
Ryan Izzo photo 265. Ryan Izzo TE - NE (at LAC)
Jace Sternberger Note
Jace Sternberger photo 266. Jace Sternberger TE - GB (vs . PHI)
Pharaoh Brown Note
Pharaoh Brown photo 267. Pharaoh Brown TE - HOU (vs . IND)
Cam Batson Note
Cam Batson photo 268. Cam Batson WR - TEN (vs . CLE)
Auden Tate Note
Auden Tate photo 269. Auden Tate WR - CIN (at MIA)
Freddie Swain Note
Freddie Swain photo 270. Freddie Swain WR - SEA (vs . NYG)
Marcedes Lewis Note
Marcedes Lewis photo 271. Marcedes Lewis TE - GB (vs . PHI)
Kalif Raymond Note
Kalif Raymond photo 272. Kalif Raymond WR - TEN (vs . CLE)
Isaiah Wright Note
Isaiah Wright photo 273. Isaiah Wright WR - WAS (at PIT)
Jason Witten Note
Jason Witten photo 274. Jason Witten TE - LV (at NYJ)
Tyler Kroft Note
Tyler Kroft photo 275. Tyler Kroft TE - BUF (at SF)
DeMichael Harris Note
DeMichael Harris photo 276. DeMichael Harris WR - IND (at HOU)
Adam Trautman Note
Adam Trautman photo 277. Adam Trautman TE - NO (at ATL)
Tyler Conklin Note
Tyler Conklin photo 278. Tyler Conklin TE - MIN (vs . JAC)
Kahale Warring Note
Kahale Warring photo 279. Kahale Warring TE - HOU (vs . IND)
KeeSean Johnson Note
KeeSean Johnson photo 280. KeeSean Johnson WR - ARI (vs . LAR)
DaeSean Hamilton Note
DaeSean Hamilton photo 281. DaeSean Hamilton WR - DEN (at KC)
Donald Parham Jr. Note
Donald Parham Jr. photo 282. Donald Parham Jr. TE - LAC (vs . NE)
Gunner Olszewski Note
Gunner Olszewski photo 283. Gunner Olszewski WR - NE (at LAC)
James Proche Note
James Proche photo 284. James Proche WR - BAL (vs . DAL)
Gabe Nabers Note
Gabe Nabers photo 285. Gabe Nabers RB - LAC (vs . NE)
Nick Vannett Note
Nick Vannett photo 286. Nick Vannett TE - DEN (at KC)
Irv Smith Jr. Note
Irv Smith Jr. photo 287. Irv Smith Jr. TE - MIN (vs . JAC)
We've gone over this plenty of times throughout the year, but when both of these tight ends are active, it's going to be tough to trust them. With Thielen out, it became a bit more intriguing. When Smith was ruled out, Rudolph became a legitimate streamer. To be fair, we didn't know Cousins would throw the ball 45 times, but after watching Rudolph see eight targets, he's on everyone's radar. If there's a matchup to play borderline tight ends, it's this one against the Jaguars, as they've allowed a league-leading 2.33 PPR points per target to tight ends. You need to monitor the status of both Thielen and Smith, as both would cannibalize some of the role that we have with Rudolph. Tight ends have averaged just 6.2 targets per game against the Jaguars, which ranks as the ninth-fewest in the league, while the Vikings have targeted their tight ends just 5.7 times per game. Are you starting to see why it's going to be difficult to trust Rudolph with Smith in the lineup? If Smith misses, Rudolph would be a low-end TE1. If both play, they're both stuck in the TE2 territory as touchdown-or-bust options.
6 hours ago
Kaden Smith Note
Kaden Smith photo 288. Kaden Smith TE - NYG (at SEA)
Van Jefferson Note
Van Jefferson photo 289. Van Jefferson WR - LAR (at ARI)
Taywan Taylor Note
Taywan Taylor photo 290. Taywan Taylor WR - CLE (at TEN)
Austin Mack Note
Austin Mack photo 291. Austin Mack WR - NYG (at SEA)
Jeff Smith Note
Jeff Smith photo 292. Jeff Smith WR - NYJ (vs . LV)
Jamal Agnew Note
Jamal Agnew photo 293. Jamal Agnew CB,WR - DET (at CHI)
Riley Ridley Note
Riley Ridley photo 294. Riley Ridley WR - CHI (vs . DET)
Qadree Ollison Note
Qadree Ollison photo 295. Qadree Ollison RB - ATL (vs . NO)
Braxton Berrios Note
Braxton Berrios photo 296. Braxton Berrios WR - NYJ (vs . LV)
Foster Moreau Note
Foster Moreau photo 297. Foster Moreau TE - LV (at NYJ)
Danny Amendola Note
Danny Amendola photo 298. Danny Amendola WR - DET (at CHI)
Nick Keizer Note
Nick Keizer photo 299. Nick Keizer TE - KC (vs . DEN)
Ben Ellefson Note
Ben Ellefson photo 300. Ben Ellefson TE - JAC (at MIN)
Deonte Harris Note
Deonte Harris photo 301. Deonte Harris WR - NO (at ATL)
Ryan Griffin Note
Ryan Griffin photo 302. Ryan Griffin TE - NYJ (vs . LV)
Deon Yelder Note
Deon Yelder photo 303. Deon Yelder TE - KC (vs . DEN)
Blake Bell Note
Blake Bell photo 304. Blake Bell TE - DAL (at BAL)
Jaeden Graham Note
Jaeden Graham photo 305. Jaeden Graham TE - ATL (vs . NO)
Vance McDonald Note
Vance McDonald photo 306. Vance McDonald TE - PIT (vs . WAS)
Lee Smith Note
Lee Smith photo 307. Lee Smith TE - BUF (at SF)
Donovan Peoples-Jones Note
Donovan Peoples-Jones photo 308. Donovan Peoples-Jones WR - CLE (at TEN)
Troy Fumagalli Note
Troy Fumagalli photo 309. Troy Fumagalli TE - DEN (at KC)
Demetrius Harris Note
Demetrius Harris photo 310. Demetrius Harris TE - CHI (vs . DET)
Zay Jones Note
Zay Jones photo 311. Zay Jones WR - LV (at NYJ)
Isaac Nauta Note
Isaac Nauta photo 312. Isaac Nauta TE,RB - DET (at CHI)
Trey Quinn Note
Trey Quinn photo 313. Trey Quinn WR - JAC (at MIN)
Levine Toilolo Note
Levine Toilolo photo 314. Levine Toilolo TE - NYG (at SEA)
Luke Stocker Note
Luke Stocker photo 315. Luke Stocker TE - ATL (vs . NO)
Alex Erickson Note
Alex Erickson photo 316. Alex Erickson WR - CIN (at MIA)
Donte Moncrief Note
Donte Moncrief photo 317. Donte Moncrief WR - NE (at LAC)
C.J. Board Note
C.J. Board photo 318. C.J. Board WR - NYG (at SEA)
Temarrick Hemingway Note
Temarrick Hemingway photo 319. Temarrick Hemingway TE - WAS (at PIT)
Jordan Thomas Note
Jordan Thomas photo 320. Jordan Thomas TE - NE (at LAC)
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Note
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine photo 321. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine WR - TEN (vs . CLE)
Cethan Carter Note
Cethan Carter photo 322. Cethan Carter TE,RB - CIN (at MIA)
Eric Saubert Note
Eric Saubert photo 323. Eric Saubert TE - JAC (at MIN)
River Cracraft Note
River Cracraft photo 324. River Cracraft WR - SF (vs . BUF)
Marquez Callaway Note
Marquez Callaway photo 325. Marquez Callaway WR - NO (at ATL)
Jeremy Sprinkle Note
Jeremy Sprinkle photo 326. Jeremy Sprinkle TE - WAS (at PIT)
Marcus Kemp Note
Marcus Kemp photo 327. Marcus Kemp WR - KC (vs . DEN)
Derek Carrier Note
Derek Carrier photo 328. Derek Carrier TE - LV (at NYJ)
Charlie Woerner Note
Charlie Woerner photo 329. Charlie Woerner TE - SF (vs . BUF)
Josh Hill Note
Josh Hill photo 330. Josh Hill TE - NO (at ATL)
Brandon Dillon Note
Brandon Dillon photo 331. Brandon Dillon TE - MIN (vs . JAC)
John Hightower Note
John Hightower photo 332. John Hightower WR - PHI (at GB)
Stephen Carlson Note
Stephen Carlson photo 333. Stephen Carlson WR - CLE (at TEN)
Noah Brown Note
Noah Brown photo 334. Noah Brown WR - DAL (at BAL)
Mike Thomas Note
Mike Thomas photo 335. Mike Thomas WR - CIN (at MIA)
Mason Schreck Note
Mason Schreck photo 336. Mason Schreck TE - CIN (at MIA)
J.P. Holtz Note
J.P. Holtz photo 337. J.P. Holtz TE - CHI (vs . DET)
Tajae Sharpe Note
Tajae Sharpe photo 338. Tajae Sharpe WR - MIN (vs . JAC)
Jonathan Williams Note
Jonathan Williams photo 339. Jonathan Williams RB - DET (at CHI)
Mike Boone Note
Mike Boone photo 340. Mike Boone RB - MIN (vs . JAC)
Stephen Anderson Note
Stephen Anderson photo 341. Stephen Anderson TE - LAC (vs . NE)
Tyrie Cleveland Note
Tyrie Cleveland photo 342. Tyrie Cleveland WR - DEN (at KC)
Lamar Miller Note
Lamar Miller photo 343. Lamar Miller RB - CHI (vs . DET)
Laquon Treadwell Note
Laquon Treadwell photo 344. Laquon Treadwell WR - ATL (vs . NO)
Ty Montgomery Note
Ty Montgomery photo 345. Ty Montgomery RB - NO (at ATL)
Michael Burton Note
Michael Burton photo 346. Michael Burton RB - NO (at ATL)
Anthony Sherman Note
Anthony Sherman photo 347. Anthony Sherman RB - KC (vs . DEN)
Daniel Brown Note
Daniel Brown photo 348. Daniel Brown TE - NYJ (vs . LV)
Jonathan Ward Note
Jonathan Ward photo 349. Jonathan Ward RB - ARI (vs . LAR)
Austin Carr Note
Austin Carr photo 350. Austin Carr WR - NO (at ATL)
Keith Smith Note
Keith Smith photo 351. Keith Smith RB - ATL (vs . NO)
Jake Kumerow Note
Jake Kumerow photo 352. Jake Kumerow WR - BUF (at SF)
Johnny Mundt Note
Johnny Mundt photo 353. Johnny Mundt TE - LAR (at ARI)
Malik Taylor Note
Malik Taylor photo 354. Malik Taylor WR - GB (vs . PHI)
Trent Taylor Note
Trent Taylor photo 355. Trent Taylor WR - SF (vs . BUF)
Evan Baylis Note
Evan Baylis photo 356. Evan Baylis TE - ARI (vs . LAR)
D.J. Foster Note
D.J. Foster photo 357. D.J. Foster RB - ARI (vs . LAR)
Reggie Gilliam Note
Reggie Gilliam photo 358. Reggie Gilliam RB,TE - BUF (at SF)
J.J. Taylor Note
J.J. Taylor photo 359. J.J. Taylor RB - NE (at LAC)
Sean McKeon Note
Sean McKeon photo 360. Sean McKeon TE - DAL (at BAL)
Joe Reed Note
Joe Reed photo 361. Joe Reed WR - LAC (vs . NE)
Khari Blasingame Note
Khari Blasingame photo 362. Khari Blasingame RB - TEN (vs . CLE)
K.J. Hill Note
K.J. Hill photo 363. K.J. Hill WR - LAC (vs . NE)
Eric Tomlinson Note
Eric Tomlinson photo 364. Eric Tomlinson TE - BAL (vs . DAL)
Andy Janovich Note
Andy Janovich photo 365. Andy Janovich RB - CLE (at TEN)
MyCole Pruitt Note
MyCole Pruitt photo 366. MyCole Pruitt TE - TEN (vs . CLE)
Dontrell Hilliard Note
Dontrell Hilliard photo 367. Dontrell Hilliard RB - CLE (at TEN)
Derek Watt Note
Derek Watt photo 368. Derek Watt RB - PIT (vs . WAS)
Terry Godwin Note
Terry Godwin photo 369. Terry Godwin WR - JAC (at MIN)
Andre Roberts Note
Andre Roberts photo 370. Andre Roberts WR - BUF (at SF)
Diontae Spencer Note
Diontae Spencer photo 371. Diontae Spencer WR - DEN (at KC)
Penny Hart Note
Penny Hart photo 372. Penny Hart WR - SEA (vs . NYG)
Isaiah Ford Note
Isaiah Ford photo 373. Isaiah Ford WR - NE (at LAC)