Fantasy Football Player Notes
Week 11 Rankings
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1.
Dalvin Cook
RB - MIN (vs . DAL)
There's no reason to hesitate plugging Cook into your starting lineup in this matchup. He can easily be viewed as the No. 1 overall RB this week in a matchup that he should go off in.
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2.
Derrick Henry
RB - TEN (at BAL)
Just like Tannehill, we have a trend with Henry. He played 71-plus percent of the snaps in each of the first three games but has watched that number fall as the year goes on. Over the last three weeks, he's played just 56.8 percent of the snaps. How is this affecting fantasy? Well, he saw 17 targets in their first six games but has seen just three targets over the last three. If he doesn't score, he's not getting into RB1 territory. While the Colts were a tough matchup, this week doesn't get much better. Based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric which accounts for the level of competition they've played, the Ravens are the league's third-toughest run defense. In fact, they're one of just three teams who are ranked higher than the Colts. With that being said, they're going to be shorthanded this week, as they're missing their top two interior lineman, Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams. While Campbell is a new player on the Ravens this year, Williams has been a major cog up the middle of the field for years. On the 552 snaps with him on the field last year, the Ravens allowed 4.12 yards per carry. On the 474 snaps without him, they allowed 5.31 yards per carry. The last time Henry played the Ravens (in the playoffs last year), he crushed them for 195 yards on 30 carries. After reading this, you should have a bit more hope playing Henry as your RB1 this week.
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3.
Josh Jacobs
RB - LV (vs . KC)
He's been trending up over the last three weeks, finishing as a top-15 running back in each game. He's racked up over 300 yards and three touchdowns the last three games, and that includes a game where the Raiders even let Devontae Booker have his way with the Broncos over the second half. Even better news is that Jacobs ran 17 pass routes, his highest since way back in Week 4 while Jalen Richard ran just three of them in Week 10. We know the Chiefs don't allow a whole lot of fantasy production to their opponents (eighth-fewest overall), but running backs account for a lot of the production they do allow, as they've scored 38.0 percent of the fantasy points allowed to skill-position players, which ranks as the third-highest number in the league. Against pass-catching running backs, the Chiefs rank as the fourth-worst team in the league, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA. Against the run in general, they rank as the third-worst team. Those metrics take into consideration the competition they've played and the production they've allowed. As a whole, running backs have scored 11.9 percent more fantasy points against the Chiefs than they do on average. Jacobs fits into that role, too, as he racked up 85 total yards and two touchdowns against them back in Week 5. There have been just six running backs who've totaled more than 14 touches against the Chiefs, and every single one of them finished with at least 100 total yards and/or a touchdown. Jacobs should be in lineups as an RB1 this week.
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4.
Alvin Kamara
RB - NO (vs . ATL)
And the beat goes on... We're now headed into Week 11 and Kamara has yet to finish worse than the RB13 in half-PPR formats. He's played the Bucs twice, Bears, and 49ers. The guy is just playing on a different level right now. Everyone sees the Falcons on the schedule and thinks, "Jackpot!" though that's not really the case. Of the fantasy points the Falcons have allowed to skill-position players, just 24.9 percent of them have gone to running backs, which is the lowest percentage in the league. Did you know that teams of running backs typically outscore the quarterback in fantasy points per game? Well, if you didn't, you do now. Running backs typically average 5.0 more PPR points per game than quarterbacks, but against the Falcons, quarterbacks average 5.2 more PPR points per game than the running backs. Teams have seemingly realized it's more profitable to move the ball through the air against them, as the Falcons have faced a league-low 17.7 carries per game. They're also one of three teams who've allowed less than four rushing touchdowns. Because of that, they've allowed the fewest fantasy points on the ground to running backs. Read that again because you may have missed it. The Falcons have allowed the fewest fantasy points on the ground to running backs at just 8.4 points per game. Fortunately, for Kamara, they've allowed tons of production through the air. The 12.7 PPR points per game they've allowed to running backs through the air alone ranks as the fifth most in the league. All in all, the Falcons have allowed just 23.6 touches per game to running backs (second-fewest) and have held them to the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game. We know by now that you don't ever consider fading Kamara, no matter the matchup. Start him as an elite RB1 every week. Murray, on the other hand, he's someone whose skill-set does not match up in this game at all, making him a weak touchdown-dependent RB4.
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5.
DeAndre Hopkins
WR - ARI (at SEA)
Prior to his miraculous hail mary touchdown, Hopkins was having a mediocre week with 6/84/0, but that one play changed his week and prevented him from having back-to-back weeks outside the top-24 receivers. He's now produced 20-plus PPR points in 6-of-9 games this year, which is obviously a very good thing. Now onto a matchup with the Seahawks, where wide receivers have scored 16.9 more half-PPR points per game against them than they do on average. The Cardinals receivers have averaged 39.3 half-PPR points per game, so it that holds true, we're looking at 56.2 half-PPR points available to the Cardinals receivers. Back in Week 7, we watched them combine for 48.9 points, so while it was good, it could have been better. In that game, Hopkins caught 10-of-12 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown. As crazy as it sounds, that was just the fourth-biggest PPR game of the season against the Seahawks. There have now been nine wide receivers who've cracked the 100-yard barrier against them. Start Hopkins wherever you can.
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6.
Aaron Jones
RB - GB (at IND)
With Jamaal Williams back in the lineup and healthy, Jones didn't see as many touches as fantasy managers were anticipating - and hoping for - in week ten against the Jaguars. Now, Jones gets a tougher matchup here against the Colts defense that is only allowing an average of 15 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. It's difficult to see how Jones finishes as a top-5 RB in this one, but he's still absolutely worth starting as a low-end RB1 given the state of the RB position.
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7.
Davante Adams
WR - GB (at IND)
After getting in a limited practice on Wednesday, Adams was a non-participant on Thursday. This isn't a great sign for his availability on Sunday against the Colts. If he is able to suit up, Adams should be viewed as a low-end WR1 due to the unknowns with his injury. However, you're still playing him.
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8.
Tyreek Hill
WR - KC (at LV)
He had his explosion game we talked about against the Panthers, racking up 18 targets, nine receptions, 113 yards, and two touchdowns in Week 9. With the way the Panthers struggled to get pressure on the quarterback, it allowed Hill to roam free in the secondary. The Raiders also struggle with pressure, which could lead to another big game for Hill. In their first meeting, he totaled just 3/78/0 on six targets though the air but chipped in with five yards and a touchdown on the ground. Something to watch is the status of Lamarcus Joyner, who needed to leave the facility this week for close contact with Clelin Ferrell, who tested positive. If Joyner is held out, it's an upgrade for all pass-catchers because he's the best cornerback they've had. Even with him on the field, they've allowed 8.97 yards per target to receivers, which ranks as the eighth-highest mark in football, and we've watched four receivers total 100-plus yards against them. He may have struggled last time, but I wouldn't bank on that happening again. He's an every-week WR1.
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9.
Miles Sanders
RB - PHI (at CLE)
It was frustrating to watch both Scott and Corey Clement score touchdowns last week, but you have to look at the positives for Sanders. One, he looked fantastic and 100 percent healthy. Two, he totaled 20 of the 25 opportunities available to Eagles running backs. Don't let a few one-off plays deter you from a running back who's totaled at least 80 yards on the ground in 5-of-6 games. He's the clear-cut workhorse here on a team that's struggling to throw the ball. He's also seen eight-man defensive fronts on a league-low 3.49 percent of carries, which should allow for continued success. Still, based on yards before contact and defensive fronts, Sanders has averaged 1.01 more yards per carry than he was expected to, according to NFL's NextGenStats. That ranks as the seventh-best number in the league. Against the Browns, wide receivers are outscoring running backs by a massive 21.6 PPR points per game, which is the third-largest gap in the game. It doesn't help that running backs have seen just a 14.7 percent target share. They're one of just four teams who've held running backs below a 15 percent target share. On the ground, the only running backs who've totaled more than 57 yards were Josh Jacobs and James Conner, who both hit the 20-carry mark. Sanders has gotten to the 20-carry mark just twice in his career, though he's never exceeded it. The downside here is that the Browns have faced the second-least amount of weighted volume against running backs. The Steelers and Falcons are the only two teams who've faced fewer than the 223 touches the Browns have. Sanders should be started as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2, though the matchup favors the passing game more than the run game. Due to lack of volume, particularly through the air, Scott should not be considered as a streaming option.
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10.
Nick Chubb
RB - CLE (vs . PHI)
The duo was back in full force last week, combining for a massive 41 touches. We figured the Browns might ease Chubb back into action, so it wasn't too shocking to see both him and Hunt finish with 19 carries. Chubb looked as good as ever, ripping off 126 yards and a touchdown against the Texans soft run defense. It should've been 128 yards and two touchdowns, but Chubb did the smart thing and ran out of bounds, which ended the game and ensured the Texans couldn't get the ball back on offense. Based on the 31.6 percent of eight-man defensive fronts and yards before contact, Chubb has had an expected rate of 3.99 yards per carry according to NFL's NextGenStats. Because he's so darn good, he's averaged 6.07 yards per carry. That 2.08 yards per carry difference is the biggest gap in football. Hunt is averaging 0.65 more yards per carry than expected, but yeah, he's the second best running back on this team. This week's test will be much tougher against an Eagles run defense that's allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. No running back has been able to eclipse 81 yards on the ground against them this season, and in fact, the only running back who's totaled 100-plus yards on the ground against them since the start of last year was Gus Edwards in a meaningless Week 17 game last year. The struggles aren't due to a lack of trying, as the Eagles have faced 23.4 carries per game. There has been just one team of running backs who've totaled more than 103 rushing yards against them this year, and that was the Rams backfield who rushed for 141 yards on 26 carries in Week 2. It's highly unlikely we see two running backs come out of this backfield with top-20 performances. Chubb is fresh and looked great, so he should remain in lineups as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 despite the tough matchup. As for Hunt, he's more of a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 this week who will need to get it done through the air, though there have been just two running backs who've caught more than three passes against the Eagles.
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11.
James Robinson
RB - JAC (vs . PIT)
Every time I look at the Jaguars backfield split, I'm amazed. Remember when we played Leonard Fournette as an RB1 every week last year because he had such an incredible floor? Getting 87.8 percent of the backfield touches no matter the offense is going to give you top-10 upside. His projected stat line is awfully close (slightly better) to Chris Carson's 2019 where he had 1,230 rushing yards, 266 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns. The next issue is the Steelers run defense, which ranks as the best in the NFL. Running backs have averaged 17.4 percent fewer fantasy points than their seasonal average against the Steelers. Running backs have seen just a 14.3 percent target share against the Steelers, which ranks as the third-lowest mark in the league. That's led to them allowing a league-low 27 receptions on the season to running backs. Doing the math, that's just three receptions per game for running backs. All in all, the Steelers have allowed a piddly 17.7 PPR points per game to running backs, which is the lowest number in the league. It really helps that Robinson has totaled 87.8 percent of the touches in this backfield because the Steelers opponents have averaged a league-low 23.4 running back touches per game. The only running back who's finished better than RB14 since the start of the 2019 season (span of 25 games) was Miles Sanders, who broke a long 70-plus yard touchdown run. Robinson needs to remain in lineups as a stable presence who has at least 16 touches in every game this year, but lower expectations into the RB2 range.
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12.
James Conner
RB - PIT (at JAC)
After seeing 18 touches in six straight games from Week 2 through Week 8, the Steelers have seemingly turned into a pass-first team and cut off Conner's heavy workload. In two great matchups the last two weeks, Conner has totaled just 68 total yards on 26 touches... in the two games combined. So, when you see the Jaguars on the schedule, you want to get excited but it's hard after what we've seen the last two weeks, and it's hard to make an argument for them to change considering they've thrown 60 points on the scoreboard. Does that mean we should ignore him against a defense that's allowed 11 different running backs finish as the RB26 or better? No. There have been six running backs who've racked up 15-plus carries against them, which is more than enough to do damage. All in all, they've faced 23.6 carries per game. Conner has received 71 percent of the carries over the last two weeks, so if that carry mark were to hold true, he'd finish with 16-17 carries. Running backs have also been targeted 23.2 percent of the time against the Jaguars, which is the third-highest percentage in the league. That's led to seven running backs finishing with five or more receptions. Roethlisberger has only targeted his running backs 41 times this year, which amounts to a 12.1 percent target share, so we know better than to rely on a lot of receiving production out of Conner. The 4.01 yards per carry they've allowed isn't all that bad, but volume has been enough to carry running backs through to big performances, and it's why the Jaguars have allowed the sixth-most points to the position. Conner is more of a high-end RB2 at this point, but you need to keep playing him in favorable matchups like this one.
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13.
Mike Davis
RB - CAR (vs . DET)
We heard last week that McCaffrey had "a chance to play" in Week 11, but that's quickly went south as the latest reports are saying that he's likely going to be held out through their bye in Week 13. We knew the Week 10 matchup against the Bucs was going to be tough, and Davis was forced to leave with an injury to his finger, which certainly didn't help his ability to catch passes, which is where he needed to make value. In games that McCaffrey has missed, Davis has totaled 130 of the 163 available opportunities to Panthers running backs (80 percent), so when you see the Lions opponents have averaged 31.7 touches, you should be getting excited. If you take a look at the Lions competition this year and look at their points-per-game averages, you'd learn that the Lions are allowing 9.3 more fantasy points per game to those running backs than they typically average. That's the most in the NFL, as no other team is over 7.0 points per game. Of the 84.5 PPR points the Lions allow to skill-position players, 42.5 percent of them go to the running back position, which is the second-highest percentage in the league. In fact, the Packers and the Lions are the only two teams who've allowed more than 38 percent of that production go to running backs. Wide receivers facing the Lions are outscoring running backs by just 1.2 PPR points per game, which is the lowest mark in the league, while the Packers are the only other team with a number less than 6.1 points per game. When you add all of this together, you get a matchup that's produced a league-leading 35.9 PPR points per game. That's a full 4.3 PPR points per game than the closest team (Packers). They've allowed more rushing (13) and receiving (5) touchdowns to running backs than any team in the league. The best part is that they've allowed more fantasy points per game through the air (14.1) to running backs than any other team in the league, which is where Davis has really shined. Whew, that was a lot of ways to say, "start Mike Davis this week as an RB1."
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14.
Keenan Allen
WR - LAC (vs . NYJ)
We're now eight games into Herbert's career (half of a season), and over that time, Allen is the No. 5 wide receiver in fantasy football, which includes a game where he had to leave before halftime. He saw "just" seven targets in Week 10, which was his season-low in the full games he's played. He's now going out to play a Jets team that's allowed six wide receivers to finish with 22-plus PPR points and as the WR11 or better. The toughest matchup against them is in the slot, so it's good news that Allen has played just 46.5 percent of his snaps there. It's not like he can't beat Brian Poole, but it's easier to beat Pierre Desir and Blessuan Austin on the perimeter. Allen should see Austin more, who's been the better of the two, though he's still allowed a 99.8 QB Rating in his coverage. Look, when you have a receiver who's averaging 10.3 targets per game going against a secondary that's allowed a 7.17 percent catch-rate and 9.34 yards per target, you're starting him as a WR1, period.
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15.
Julio Jones
WR - ATL (at NO)
It's always a good thing to get an aging wide receiver a week off, especially when he's been dealing with hamstring injuries throughout the year. Jones was hot going into his bye week, totaling 36 targets, 28 receptions, 425 yards, and three touchdowns over the last four games. When targeting Jones, Matt Ryan has a 134.4 QB Rating, which ranks as the highest among any QB/WR duo with more than 35 targets. Now coming off his bye week, Jones should be ready to rock the second half of the season. The Saints have seen just a 52.1 percent target share to the wide receiver position, which ranks as the third lowest in football. Despite seeing the fifth-fewest targets to wide receivers on the year, they've still allowed the 16th-most fantasy points per game, which tells you a lot about the efficiency wide receivers have had. The 9.05 yards per target they've allowed is the fifth-most in the league, which obviously bodes well for the yardage-heavy Jones. He's always in your lineup as a WR1 no matter the matchup and considering Marshon Lattimore (who he'll see most) hasn't been close to a shutdown presence this year, you're not shying away from him.
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16.
Travis Kelce
TE - KC (at LV)
He's posted back-to-back 100-yard games and is on pace for 103 receptions, 1,367 yards, and 11 touchdowns. That would beat his 2018 totals of 103 receptions, 1,336 yards, and 10 touchdowns, which was his career best. With how little they're choosing to run the ball, it's no wonder he's seen seven-plus targets in seven of the last eight games. His last three games against the Raiders have netted 8/108/1, 5/90/0, and 7/107/1, so it's not a matchup to be worried about despite the numbers the Raiders have posted this year. They've surprisingly allowed 5.84 yards per target (third-lowest in the NFL) to tight ends, and have allowed just three touchdowns on the year, so it hasn't really been a smash spot. In fact, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, they're the second-toughest matchup in the NFL for tight ends. Again, this doesn't seem to apply to Kelce, who's crushed them three times in the last 14 months. You're always starting him.
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17.
D.K. Metcalf
WR - SEA (vs . ARI)
It would seem that Jalen Ramsey won the first round of their matchups against each other this year, holding Metcalf to just 28 yards on four targets. The good news is that it's in the past. The bad news is that their other matchup against each other will be during fantasy championship week (Week 16) where Metcalf will hope to bounce back. Week 10 was just the second time all season he's finished a game with fewer than 92 yards. The downside is that the first time he failed to him 92 yards was against the Cardinals, his Week 11 opponent. It's odd because the Cardinals allow plenty of fantasy production, and wide receivers have accounted for 56.7 percent of the production by skill-position players against them (third-highest), so it's tough to see that being an issue again. He only saw five targets in that game, catching two for 23 yards while Lockett simply went bananas. The Cardinals will obviously have to adjust to slow down Lockett, but when you look at the receivers who've done well against the Cardinals, it's been slot receivers and pure route runners. The top-six performances they've allowed were to Lockett, Cole Beasley, Jamison Crowder, Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs, and Amari Cooper. Three of them are slot-heavy, while the other three are top-five route runners in the league. We've talked about the lack of competent quarterback play against the Cardinals this year, so the results might not mean much. You're starting Metcalf every week, and it's likely he bounces back considering his dominance this year.
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18.
Kalen Ballage
RB - LAC (vs . NYJ)
Over the last two weeks, we've seen Ballage make his mark on this backfield, racking up 137 yards and a touchdown on the ground, while chipping in seven catches for 49 yards through the air. Did I think it was possible that Ballage would be a top-12 running back over a two-week stretch in 2020? Nope, but he ranks as the No. 12 over the last two weeks. Don't expect Kelley to make a resurgence any time soon either, as he's averaging 0.66 fewer yards per carry than he's been expected to according to NFL's NextGenStats, which is the second-worst number in the league. Ballage gets his "revenge game" against the Jets this week, a run defense that's underrated by many. They've allowed just one 100-yard running back this season, and it was Melvin Gordon when he saw 23 carries on Thursday night football. In the same scheme last year, they allowed just one 100-yard rusher. To be fair, they've lost quite a few players, but it's not an easy matchup. According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric that factors in level of competition, the Jets are the 10th-best run defense in football. It's no coincidence that they've allowed the 12th-fewest PPR points per weighted opportunity to running backs. Running backs have averaged a rock-solid 29.2 touches per game against them, so we should be expecting another 15-plus touch game out of Ballage. Even if efficiency isn't great, he's in the low-end RB2 conversation this week. Kelley saw a season-low seven touches last week, moving him well into the RB4 territory as someone who's finished with more than 3.1 yards per carry just twice through nine games.
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19.
Terry McLaurin
WR - WAS (vs . CIN)
McLaurin is essentially the only receiver that opposing defenses have to key in on to slow down the Washington passing game, but they still can't stop him. McLaurin is one of the most talented receivers in the game and he presents week-winning upside every single time he steps onto the field. He can be started as a low-end WR1 with upside in this matchup.
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20.
Ezekiel Elliott
RB - DAL (at MIN)
Zeke's going to see a significant workload here again, but the scoring opportunities with Dalton behind center just might not be there. Zeke's a mid-range RB2 this week on the back of pure volume, but he presents almost no upside whatsoever.
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21.
Tyler Lockett
WR - SEA (vs . ARI)
It was supposed to be a big bounce-back game for Lockett, though he failed to live up to expectations, recording just five catches for 65 yards. He's now finished with 11.5 or less PPR points in five of his last six games. The one game in that mix where he did was against his Week 11 opponent, as he crushed the Cardinals to the tune of 15 receptions, 200 yards, and three touchdowns. Do they adjust and change things up to ensure he doesn't abuse their secondary again, or do they accept it because they won that Week 7 matchup against them? The Cardinals have been beat up in the slot, no matter which cornerback is there, allowing 40-of-56 passing for 589 yards and four touchdowns. It's also why we've seen the three top performances they've allowed on the season go to slot-heavy wide receivers (Lockett, Cole Beasley, and Jamison Crowder). Is it a lock to go down as it did last week? Not really, as Lockett totaled just 4/51/0 and 1/12/0 in the two matchups against a similar Cardinals defense last year. You're still playing him as a high-end WR2 but understand that production may shift this week.
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22.
Adam Thielen
WR - MIN (vs . DAL)
Thielen's coming off of a two-touchdown performance and he now gets to take on one of the easiest matchups in all of fantasy football. While there's always the possibility that the Vikings lean on their run game and only throw the ball 15 times, Thielen's in too great of a spot to sit here. He can be viewed as a mid-range WR2 this week that has the potential to reel in a couple more scores.
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23.
Calvin Ridley
WR - ATL (at NO)
The good thing about Ridley's injury coming when it that it came at a time he was able to get extra rest during their bye week. He's expected to return, though we need to pay attention to his practice participation throughout the week. Prior to leaving that Week 8 game early with his foot injury, Ridley had totaled at least 16.7 PPR points in 6-of-7 games. Now time to go against the Saints, a team who's only faced 18.3 wide receiver targets per game, which is quite different than 24.9 targets per game that the Falcons receivers get. On a per-target basis, the Saints have allowed 2.01 PPR points per target, which ranks as the sixth-highest number in the league. Ridley's primary matchup will be against Janoris Jenkins, who's been the better of the two Saints perimeter cornerbacks, allowing 23-of-38 passing for 267 yards and one touchdown in his coverage. The biggest thing to know is that Ridley has seen seven-plus targets in 6-of-7 full games he's played, and the Saints have allowed at least 74 yards and/or a touchdown to every receiver who's seen seven-plus targets against them. As long as Ridley practices in full, he should be inserted back into lineups as a mid-to-low-end WR1.
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24.
A.J. Brown
WR - TEN (at BAL)
After catching a 21-yard pass on the second play of the game, Brown didn't have another catch for the remainder of the contest against the Colts. It's a game of inches, they say. He dropped what would've been a 72-yard touchdown in the first quarter of that game, which would have completely changed his day. It was his first game with fewer than seven targets, so we can't overreact, but his matchup in Week 11 isn't going to be easy one to get back on track. The Ravens have allowed a wide receiver touchdown once every 43.8 targets, which ranks as the best in the league. The Titans must find a way to get the ball into Brown's hands, because once that happens, he's electric, averaging 6.8 yards after the catch. That's how he overcame a tough matchup against the Bears, so maybe he can do it again. With Jimmy Smith dinged up, the Ravens turned to Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters on the perimeter, while moving to veteran Tramon Williams in the slot. That worked out pretty well, as the Patriots receivers accounted for just five catches and 59 yards. This is far from a great matchup and Brown proved that in the playoffs last year, catching just 1-of-3 targets for nine yards against them. He's too talented to bench, but temper expectations into WR2 territory against a team who's allowed just two wide receivers to finish with more than 81 yards this year.
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25.
Antonio Gibson
RB - WAS (vs . CIN)
Gibson performed well in a great matchup last week and there's little reason to doubt that he won't do the same thing here. Washington should look to lean on Gibson early and often in this one and he has an excellent chance of finding the end zone yet again. Fire up Gibson as a low-end RB1.
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26.
Chase Claypool
WR - PIT (at JAC)
When Ben Roethlisberger has targeted Claypool, he has a 134.3 QB Rating, which ranks behind only the Matt Ryan/Julio Jones duo. There's clearly a relationship developing with him and Roethlisberger, as he's now seen 32 targets over the last three games. It's kind of crazy to think that he hasn't topped 74 yards since Week 5, but his touchdowns have kept fantasy managers satisfied. The Jaguars allow a league-leading 9.82 yards per target to receivers, but maybe even more important to Claypool is the fact that they've allowed 14.34 yards per reception to them (ranks third-highest), as he's the field-stretcher in this offense. As stated in the Johnson notes above, the Jaguars perimeter duo of cornerbacks have combined to allow 16.16 yards per reception. Despite not being a starter right out of the gate, Claypool leads the team in deep targets (16), receptions (4), yards (183), and touchdowns (2). This defense has also allowed a touchdown every 16.8 targets to wide receivers, which is the ninth-most often. You want to keep rolling Claypool out there this week as a WR2.
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27.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
RB - KC (at LV)
The Chiefs have been having a real issue getting their ground game going, though it's hard to blame Edwards-Helaire, as he's averaged a rock-solid 4.65 yards per carry, which ranks No. 3 among running backs with 100-plus carries, behind only Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry. For whatever reason, he's been limited to 10 or less carries in four of the last five games. The Chiefs backfield as a whole has averaged just 24.0 touches per game, so lack of volume is a real problem. The Raiders have allowed a rushing touchdown once every 19.7 carries, so volume hasn't been necessary to post solid fantasy numbers against them. Running backs have also been targeted 23.5 percent of the time against the Raiders, which is the highest mark in the league. The bye week is generally when teams decide to make major fundamental changes to their attack moving forward, so it's possible that the Chiefs realize they need to get their ground game working a bit more. Clelin Ferrell has been the best run-stopping edge rusher the Raiders have and he's out for this game after testing positive for COVID. Back in their Week 5 game, Edwards-Helaire totaled 80 yards on just 13 touches, so if he gets more, he should produce like you expected him to when you drafted, but again, the lack of touches is problematic. Unless the Chiefs have changed their ways, he's stuck in middling RB2 territory in what's been a great matchup for running backs. The Chiefs could choose to go back to the way things were pre-Bell, as he's shown he's in the final stages of his career and doesn't have the appeal he once did. He's nothing more than a handcuff to Edwards-Helaire at this point, as he's totaled just 14 touches that netted 41 total yards over the last two games combined.
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28.
Justin Jefferson
WR - MIN (vs . DAL)
Jefferson has emerged as one of the best wideouts in the entire NFL. No, not just one of the best rookie wideouts, but one of the best wideouts in the game. Unfortunately, for fantasy purposes, his production lives and dies with how well Dalvin Cook plays. If Cook is rumbling for multiple scores, Jefferson is not going to be needed very much and the Vikings are going to continue to run the ball. However, he's worth rolling out as a solid low-end WR2 this week that has ridiculous upside.
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29.
Will Fuller V
WR - HOU (vs . NE)
The high-wind game last week ended Fuller's six-game touchdown streak that he had going. Considering the conditions, his managers are probably lucky he totaled eight targets in that game, even if they did only amount to five catches for 38 yards. Why don't teams target their wide receivers more against the Patriots? If they did, they might have more success, as the Patriots have allowed a massive 2.11 PPR points per target to them, which ranks as the second-highest mark in the league behind only the Vikings. Stephon Gilmore hasn't played over the last few weeks with an injury, but even when on the field, he's allowed 15-of-24 passing for 209 yards and two touchdowns, which is far from shutdown. Despite no receiver seeing double-digit targets against the Patriots, they've allowed eight top-24 wide receiver performances. You're more worried about the Patriots' reputation than you are the actual matchup, so go ahead and get Fuller back in lineups as a mid-to-low-end WR2.
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30.
Kareem Hunt
RB - CLE (vs . PHI)
The duo was back in full force last week, combining for a massive 41 touches. We figured the Browns might ease Chubb back into action, so it wasn't too shocking to see both him and Hunt finish with 19 carries. Chubb looked as good as ever, ripping off 126 yards and a touchdown against the Texans soft run defense. It should've been 128 yards and two touchdowns, but Chubb did the smart thing and ran out of bounds, which ended the game and ensured the Texans couldn't get the ball back on offense. Based on the 31.6 percent of eight-man defensive fronts and yards before contact, Chubb has had an expected rate of 3.99 yards per carry according to NFL's NextGenStats. Because he's so darn good, he's averaged 6.07 yards per carry. That 2.08 yards per carry difference is the biggest gap in football. Hunt is averaging 0.65 more yards per carry than expected, but yeah, he's the second best running back on this team. This week's test will be much tougher against an Eagles run defense that's allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. No running back has been able to eclipse 81 yards on the ground against them this season, and in fact, the only running back who's totaled 100-plus yards on the ground against them since the start of last year was Gus Edwards in a meaningless Week 17 game last year. The struggles aren't due to a lack of trying, as the Eagles have faced 23.4 carries per game. There has been just one team of running backs who've totaled more than 103 rushing yards against them this year, and that was the Rams backfield who rushed for 141 yards on 26 carries in Week 2. It's highly unlikely we see two running backs come out of this backfield with top-20 performances. Chubb is fresh and looked great, so he should remain in lineups as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 despite the tough matchup. As for Hunt, he's more of a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 this week who will need to get it done through the air, though there have been just two running backs who've caught more than three passes against the Eagles.
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31.
Diontae Johnson
WR - PIT (at JAC)
It's like clockwork. If Johnson plays a full game, he's seen 10-plus targets. That type of volume is reserved for No. 1 wide receivers. He's caught at least six passes for 57 yards in each of the five full games he's played, including a career-high 116 yards and a touchdown last week. His average depth of target is minimal (8.8 yards), which has led to just 6.6 yards per target, one of the lower marks among highly-targeted receivers. It should help knowing the Jaguars have allowed a massive 9.82 yards per target to wide receivers, which is easily the most in the NFL. They've only played against three wide receivers who've seen 10-plus targets, and each of them finished with 20-plus PPR points. All of them were great route runners like Johnson, too. Brandin Cooks, Keenan Allen, and Davante Adams. He'll be seeing a lot of both Sidney Jones and C.J. Henderson in coverage, who've combined to allow 44-of-75 passing for 711 yards and six touchdowns. That's a massive 16.16 yards per reception, so look for the big play to be exposed a bit. Johnson has seen 11 deep targets this year, though him and Roethlisberger have only connected on two of them for 74 yards and a touchdown. Johnson should be considered an every-week WR2 with his incredible target share.
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32.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR - PIT (at JAC)
Suddenly, Smith-Schuster is the No. 19 wide receiver in fantasy football. He's totaled a massive 42 targets over the last four weeks, which ranks fourth behind only Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, and Stefon Diggs, players who are viewed as every-week WR1s. Now on to play the Jaguars who've allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. They have Tre Herndon covering the slot, where he's allowed 10-of-16 passing for 119 yards and a touchdown since taking over for D.J. Hayden, who still hasn't returned off the IR. Even if Hayden does return, it wouldn't be a bad thing for Smith-Schuster, as Hayden has allowed a ridiculous 83.3 percent completion-rate and 11.7 yards per target. We talked about Keenan Allen earlier. Just four weeks ago, he totaled 10/125/0 against this defense. You have to play all the Steelers wide receviers right now and deal with the ups and downs, as it's unlikely they all deliver top-30 value every week, but in this matchup, it's possible. Just like Johnson and Claypool, Smith-Schuster is in the WR2 conversation.
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33.
Todd Gurley II
RB - ATL (at NO)
He's averaging just 3.67 yards per carry and has caught just 15 balls for 79 yards though nine weeks but went into his bye week as the No. 6 running back. That's because he ranked second in the NFL with nine rushing touchdowns. Running backs have averaged 5.4 fewer fantasy points against the Saints than they do versus their season average, which is the biggest gap in the league. When you look at the fantasy points the Saints have allowed to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, the running backs have only accounted for 26.1 percent of that production, which ranks as the second-lowest mark in the league. So, when you see they've allowed just 18.5 PPR points per game to running backs, it makes sense. That's the second-lowest number in the league, behind only the Steelers. They've allowed just three rushing touchdowns on the season, or one every 59.3 carries, which is the highest number in the league. The 8.37 points per game they allow on the ground ranks as the second-lowest mark in the NFL behind only the Falcons. That's big because Gurley has caught more than two passes just twice all season and hasn't topped 29 receiving yards. Even when you factor in the weighted expectation of fantasy points from targets, the Saints are the No. 1 run defense in the league from a points per opportunity standpoint. Gurley is looking like a touchdown-or-bust option in a matchup that has only generated a touchdown in 33 percent of the Saints games, including none in their last five games. He's a high-variance RB2 this week with a low ceiling who shouldn't be considered in cash games.
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34.
Damien Harris
RB - NE (at HOU)
What makes Harris' production on the ground that much more special is the fact that he's done it while seeing eight-man defensive fronts on a league-high 43.5 percent of his carries. No other running back in the NFL is over 34.0 percent. Teams know it's coming and they still haven't been able to stop it. Running backs have averaged 30.8 PPR points per game against the Texans, which ranks as the third-highest number in the league. It certainly helps that they've averaged a ridiculous 27.9 carries per game against them. Not touches per game... carries. They've faced more carries than 19 teams have seen touches to running backs. When you combine that with the 5.53 yards per carry they've allowed (just one other team is above 4.88 yards per carry), you get a massive 22.8 fantasy points per game on the ground alone. That's more than 15 teams allow to the running back position as a whole... in PPR formats. Think about that. They've allowed 204.9 fantasy points on the ground, while there's been just one other team (Lions) who's allowed more than 168.8 fantasy points on the ground. All in all, the Texans have faced a league-high 31.9 running back touches per game. They've now allowed 1,715 total yards to running backs, which is 95 more than any other team. Harris has earned the right to be started as a solid RB2, though his lack of passing game usage makes him gamescript dependent and presents volatility.
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35.
Tee Higgins
WR - CIN (at WAS)
Can I ask you a question? Would you have started Chris Godwin in every game last season? The answer is obviously yes, but I'm sure you're asking, "Mike, what does that have to do with Higgins? Follow me here. Since joining the starting lineup in Week 3, Higgins has totaled 37 receptions, 568 yards, and four touchdowns. Over a 16-game season, that would be 85 receptions, 1,298 yards, and nine touchdowns. Godwin finished with 86 receptions, 1,333 yards, and nine touchdowns in 2019. Crazy, right? Higgins is an every-week starter. The matchup this week is one of the tougher ones in football. Even though they allowed two top-30 wide receivers last week, Washington ranks as the third-toughest matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing just 27.8 PPR points per game to them. They're one of just three teams who've held opposing receivers under 31.1 points per game (the others are the Rams and Bears). It certainly helps that they've only had to face 145 targets on the season, which amounts to just 16.1 targets per game. Meanwhile, the Bengals have targeted receivers a massive 27.9 times per game, so there's certainly a clash of trends. The 8.40 yards per target they've allowed to receivers ranks as the 14th-most in football, so it's not a must avoid matchup like some might think. Still, they've allowed just two receivers finish better than the WR22 this year, which means he may not have the highest ceiling. He should still be in lineups as a low-end WR2 at least.
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36.
Salvon Ahmed
RB - MIA (at DEN)
After seeing just seven carries in his season debut with the Dolphins, Ahmed was thrust into a larger role in Week 10 and he delivered, racking up 85 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries against the Chargers. The combination of DeAndre Washington and Patrick Laird received just four carries between the two of them, so Ahmed basically got the Myles Gaskin role. The downside was that he finished with just one target. It wasn't lack of snaps, as he led the running backs in routes. We have to assume he's done enough to hold onto that role, even with Breida expected back. Even when healthy, Breida hasn't totaled more than 10 touches in a game with the Dolphins. The Broncos had been one of the best run defenses in football, but they had a hiccup last week, allowing a ridiculous 193 yards and four touchdowns on 37 carries to the Raiders running backs last week. I suppose we've seen them slip in Week 8 as well when the Chargers running backs combined for 188 yards on 34 carries, though they didn't score. Through the first six weeks, the Broncos hadn't allowed more than 116 rushing yards in a game. What changed? Mike Purcell, their best nose tackle, went down with a season ending injury and has missed the last three weeks. The loss of him and Jurrell Casey have proven to be too much for them to handle. Because of that, Ahmed should be played as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3. I'd say higher, but we really don't know how the touches will be divided with Breida back. As for Breida, he's nothing more than an RB4-type option who's guaranteed nothing more than five touches or so.
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37.
Duke Johnson Jr.
RB - HOU (vs . NE)
Once we learned that David Johnson had to go to injured reserve, we knew we were getting a big workload for Duke Johnson. Unfortunately, the Texans didn't find it necessary to target him in the passing game despite the high-wind conditions. You'd think they'd lower the average depth of target but no. Still, over the last two games with Johnson in the workhorse role, he's totaled 30 carries and five targets, which is more than enough to give you confidence to start him. Just like against the pass, the Patriots have been a below average defense against running backs, allowing 4.60 yards per carry (8th-most), 6.72 yards per target (5th-most), and a touchdown every 31.0 touches. This all comes back to the issue of total plays for their opponents, as they've averaged just 57.8 plays per game, so even though teams have chosen to run the ball a league-high 50.4 percent of the time, it's netted just 27.6 running back touches per game. All in all, the Patriots have faced the fifth-least amount of weighted volume to running backs. That's a problem, but the good news is that Johnson might see 90 percent of the volume, which is enough to move him into the sturdy high-floor RB2 range.
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38.
Chris Godwin
WR - TB (vs . LAR)
It's not so bad with all three receivers active over the last two weeks, as Godwin's role hasn't changed much, totaling six targets in each game. He averaged 7.3 targets per game before Brown got there, so like we thought, it may have taken the cap off his floor/ceiling. He posted a season-high 92 yards last week, so maybe his efficiency is on the rise? Not only do the Rams allow the second-fewest PPR points to skill-position players (61.1 points per game) but they've allowed just 44.7 percent of that production go to wide receivers, which is the fourth-lowest mark in the league. It amounts to just 27.4 PPR points per game to wide receivers. They're efficient, too, as receivers have averaged just 1.54 PPR points per target, which is the third-lowest mark in the NFL. The good news for Godwin is that he has the best matchup on the field against Troy Hill in the slot. Not that Hill has been bad, but he's been worse than Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams. He's allowed 39-of-52 passing for 380 yards in his coverage, though he's still yet to allow a touchdown. Still, the Rams have allowed just two top-24 receivers all year, so it's hard to find much to get excited about. Godwin is the best bet for production, but he's just a high-end WR3 here.
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39.
Ronald Jones II
RB - TB (vs . LAR)
Did you need a reminder to never fully trust any Bucs running back? It seemed like Jones would be on the bench for the remainder of the game after fumbling on their first drive, but Bruce Arians went back to him after watching Fournette drop an easy pass in the flats. Jones proceeded to rip off a big run that led to a career day on the ground, racking up 198 total yards and a touchdown. Here's a fun stat: Based on the number of eight-man defensive fronts and yards before contact a running back has, they have an expected yards per carry. Based on that number from NFL's NextGenStats, Jones is averaging 1.41 more yards per carry than the average running back would, which ranks fourth to only Nick Chubb, Raheem Mostert, and Dalvin Cook. The Rams are dominant against the pass, but they've also been pretty good against the run, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to them. As far as carries go, teams are averaging 19.4 carries per game against them (fourth-fewest), which is detrimental to Jones' role as the primary two-down back, as he still concedes about 40-45 percent of the carries to Fournette over the last month. They allow just 4.03 per carry, so it's not like efficiency has been great. The Rams have allowed near the league average in yards per target (5.62) to running backs, which bodes well for Fournette, who sees nearly twice the targets that Jones does. But all-in-all, the Rams rank as the fourth-toughest opponent based on weighted opportunity. This isn't a game to expect a repeat performance out of Jones, who should be viewed as a high-end RB3 who comes with risk of touching the ball less than 15 times. It shouldn't surprise anyone if Fournette has a bigger game based on the strengths and weaknesses of the matchup, so he remains in the RB3 territory.
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40.
Giovani Bernard
RB - CIN (at WAS)
After Mixon got in one limited practice last week, the Bengals shut him down and then announced him inactive before gameday which means he's no lock to return this week, so stay tuned for updates. Bernard struggled to get things going against the Steelers, which was expected, but what wasn't expected was him splitting the workload with Samaje Perine and Trayveon Williams. Bernard saw 15 opportunities while Perine had eight, and Williams had five. Gamescript likely had something to do with that, though it's an added risk to his projection as the perceived workhorse with Mixon out. Outside of a game where they allowed Nick Chubb 108 yards and two touchdowns, Washington hasn't allowed a running back more than 86 yards on the ground and have allowed just three rushing touchdowns in the other eight games. The Bengals have run the ball just 37.1 percent of their plays, and Washington's opponents have averaged just 61.4 plays per game, which doesn't lead to a lot of run plays. When running backs have been targeted in the passing game, they've averaged 1.75 PPR points per target, which ranks as the third-highest number in football, but the odd part is that running backs haven't been targeted much against them, which is why there's been just one running back who's totaled more than three receptions and 30 yards (D'Andre Swift last week). Bernard has seen 16 targets over the last three weeks, so he's clearly a big part of their gameplan in that department. If Mixon misses another game, Bernard should be plugged in as a middling RB2 who isn't likely to win weeks, but he should total 14-plus touches. If Mixon returns, he'll move into high-end RB2 territory as a fresh running back who's ready to roll.
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41.
Cooper Kupp
WR - LAR (at TB)
Similar to Woods, Kupp has generally lived in the 5-8 target range this year, though there have been two outlier games where he saw 20 and 10 targets. Both times were in matchups where the slot was an area to attack against their opponents (Bills, Dolphins) while the perimeter matchups were a bit tougher. The matchup against the Bucs would certainly qualify as a matchup to attack the slot over the perimeter, as Sean Murphy-Bunting has allowed 37-of-42 passing for 437 yards and four touchdowns in his coverage. There are just 13 cornerbacks in the league who've allowed more yardage, and all of them have seen more targets than him. There have only been six wide receivers who've finished better than the WR29 against the Bucs, and while all of them saw at least seven targets, five of them saw nine-plus targets, so we need this to be one of the games Kupp gets peppered. He's the preferred play on the Rams this week, so plug him in as a low-end WR2 and hope for the best.
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42.
Tyler Boyd
WR - CIN (at WAS)
It was clear that the Bengals game-planned around getting Higgins the ball in Week 10, which left Boyd a bit on the short end, though he did finish with eight targets, six receptions, and 41 yards, so it wasn't a complete bust. He's seen at least eight targets in six games this year, making him one of just 10 players who've seen eight-plus targets in at least 66 percent of their games. Washington has been among the best defenses in the NFL this year, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends combined. Even worse, they've allowed just 43.8 percent of that production go to wide receviers, which is right there with the Bears for the best in the NFL. Because of that, they've allowed just two receivers to finish higher than the WR22 against them. They've been very good against slot-heavy receivers (what Boyd is), as the best game they've allowed to one is Larry Fitzgerald's seven catches for 50 yards against them. Those 12.0 PPR points were more than they allowed to Cooper Kupp, Sterling Shepard, Jarvis Landry, CeeDee Lamb, and Danny Amendola, so they've played some decent competition. It's not to say Jimmy Moreland isn't beatable, but he's been solid, allowing just 136 scoreless yards on 25 slot targets. Boyd's targets are good enough to keep him there in the WR3 conversation, but he's not an obvious star this week.
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43.
Robby Anderson
WR - CAR (vs . DET)
After totaling 99-plus yards in four of his first five games with the Panthers, Anderson has failed to top 77 yards in each of his last five games. Granted, that's a high benchmark, but his 21 yards in Week 10 was a season-low, and it comes after he set a previous season-low of 48 yards against the Falcons in Week 8. He's still a top-24 receiver for the remainder of the season, but it's clear there's some volatility involved with him. The Lions went from a team who was allowing a lot of wide receiver production, to one where teams are stomping them in the run-game. Just 43.9 percent of production they've allowed to skill-position players has gone to wide receivers, which is the third-lowest number in the NFL. It's not like it's a must-avoid matchup, though, as 12 wide receivers have produced top-36 performances against them, including three inside the top-12. Anderson doesn't play in one spot, as he's pretty much played one-third at each of LWR, RWR, and the slot. Rushing touchdowns have crushed receivers' upside against the Lions because the 8.77 yards per target they allow ranks as the ninth-most in the league, while the seven touchdowns ranks as the fourth-fewest. Anderson hasn't scored since Week 1, so we know not to rely on touchdowns from him by now. Still, despite the lack of touchdowns, Anderson ranks as the No. 12 wide receiver in PPR formats, so keep him out there as a stable high-floor WR2.
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44.
Amari Cooper
WR - DAL (at MIN)
The Cowboys receiving corps does get a bit of a boost with Dalton back in the lineup, but it's still not to the point where we can fully trust them in our starting lineups. Cooper was able to put together a solid performance the last time Dalton played and this is a matchup where he should be able to get open regularly. Cooper can be started as a low-end WR2 this week that should see plenty of targets, but he'll need to find the end zone to finish within the top-15.
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45.
Michael Thomas
WR - NO (vs . ATL)
This is me waving a yellow caution flag, as I'm befuddled at the lack of targets for Thomas last week. While watching that game, it was like Brees didn't even realize Thomas was on the field. Winston targeted him a bit more, though the targets that came from Winston weren't close to catchable. I still see him as the same receiver who broke records last year, but maybe the team doesn't. If there's a week where he can remind you of the player you wanted to draft as a top-five pick, it's this one. Wide receivers outscore running backs by a massive 24.0 PPR points per game against the Falcons, which is the second-largest gap in the league. The Falcons have allowed a league-leading 14.89 yards per reception to wide receivers. There have already been 10 wide receivers who've totaled 92-plus yards against them, including three of them who've cracked the 120-yard barrier. They've also allowed 12 different wide receivers to rack up five-plus receptions, highlighting a rock solid-floor for Thomas. The move to Winston would've probably been a bad thing, but knowing how little Brees was looking Thomas' way, it might be a good thing. If you have him, play him.
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46.
Robert Woods
WR - LAR (at TB)
There's no one more let down than me after Woods' Week 10 performance. Believe me, I had way too much exposure in DFS lineups for him to finish with five catches for 33 yards against the league's worst defense against wide receviers (who were starting three backup cornerbacks). Woods has now finished between 5-8 targets in 8-of-9 games this year, which isn't the best of news for a receiver that is averaging just 7.8 yards per target, though his four receiving touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns have kept him afloat. His 134.0 PPR points on the season rank No. 22, though he's finished as a WR2 or better in just 4-of-9 games. Now onto a matchup with the Bucs defense that rank as the No. 2 defense against No. 1 wide receivers in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric that factors in level of competition they've played. Granted, Woods isn't that prototypical No. 1 wide receiver, but he's their best perimeter option, which means he'll see a lot of Carlton Davis, who's allowed just 34-of-61 passing for 383 yards and two touchdowns, while intercepting four passes. That amounts to just 1.38 PPR points per target in his coverage, which ranks 109th among 123 qualifying cornerbacks. This is not a great matchup, as there have been just seven wide receviers who've finished with 15-plus PPR points, and while all of them had at least seven targets, six of them had at least nine targets. Woods should be considered more of a high-end WR3 this week.
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47.
Mike Evans
WR - TB (vs . LAR)
It may have gone overlooked by some, but Evans has played in the slot 52.5 percent of the time over the last four games. The Bucs are trying to free him up from those shutdown perimeter cornerbacks. He's caught 9-of-10 targets for 123 yards while in there, so it's working. When playing against the Rams, wide receivers are averaging 8.3 fewer fantasy points than their seasonal average, which makes this the toughest matchup in football. Teams are targeting wide receivers on just 49.8 percent of their pass attempts, which is easily the lowest mark in the league, as no other team has seen fewer than a 51.7 percent target share. This is problematic when we have three wide receviers that need to be projected for heavy targets. Not only are targets a problem, but wide receivers have caught a touchdown once every 39.0 targets, which ranks as the second-fewest in the league, behind only the Ravens. Evans will have his hands full on the perimeter, as both Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams have been lights out. Evans should be considered a WR3 this week in what might be the toughest matchup in football.
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48.
Brandin Cooks
WR - HOU (vs . NE)
Despite the crazy-high winds last week, Cooks still saw eight targets. That makes it five straight games he's seen eight-plus targets, which is volume that's typically reserved for top-12 fantasy receivers. He's just one of 10 wide receivers who've seen 8-plus targets in at least 66.7 percent of his games. That's good because his former team has allowed a massive 9.73 yards per target to wide receivers this year, which ranks second to only the Jaguars. The 14.74 yards per reception ranks second to only the Falcons, and that was on full display against the Jets just a few weeks ago when Breshad Perriman crushed them for 101 yards and two touchdowns. Both Cooks and Fuller have each been targeted 20-plus yards down the field 12 times, so it's not like Cooks doesn't have the field-stretching potential Fuller does. Any time you have a wide receiver with an eight-target floor over the last five games, you kind of have to play him. Cooks belongs in the middling WR3 conversation where the only risk is lack of plays out of the Texans offense.
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49.
Darren Waller
TE - LV (vs . KC)
Crazy to think there have been just two tight ends you can rely on this year, and both of them are in this game. Unfortunately, Waller hasn't been all that reliable as of late, as he's failed to top 37 yards in each of his last three games, something that had happened just three times in his previous 22 games. He's still seen at least five targets in 8-of-9 games this year, including five with eight-plus targets, so we'll be rolling with the punches. The last time he played the Chiefs (Week 5), Waller walked away with 5/48/1 on seven targets, which came in a game where Carr threw for 347 yards and three touchdowns, something that's unlikely to happen again. Still, we can even go back to last year when Waller finished with 6/63/0 and 7/100/0 against them, so he's fared well regardless, and it was the same scheme. The Chiefs rank as the 11th-toughest matchup in adjusted opponent rank, which factors in the opponents they've played, as tight ends are averaging 6.8 percent fewer points against the Chiefs than they do on average. Looking at DVOA, they rank as the fourth-toughest matchup for tight ends, so it's far from a can't-miss matchup. But considering Waller's history against them, he remains in the sturdy TE1 range.
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50.
D.J. Chark Jr.
WR - JAC (vs . PIT)
Through two games with Luton under center, Chark hasn't been too affected, racking up 17 targets, 11 receptions, 202 yards, and a touchdown. It doesn't hurt that he played against a Bradley Roby-less Texans team and a Jaire Alexander-less Packers team. The Steelers don't allow a whole lot of fantasy points to their opponents, but of the production they do allow to skill-position players, 60.4 percent of it goes to wide receivers, which ranks as the second-highest percentage in the league. According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Steelers rank as the No. 31 defense against No. 1 receivers. That might seem aggressive until you see that Travis Fulgham, Darius Slayton, A.J. Brown, and Tee Higgins have all cranked out 24-plus PPR points against them, all finishing as top-10 receivers. They don't shadow, so Chark will see a mix of the cornerbacks. The biggest question mark here is Luton against that Steelers fierce pass rush. The matchup against the Steelers isn't nearly as bad as some make it out to be for wide receivers, which leaves Chark in the high-end WR3 conversation.
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51.
Carlos Hyde
RB - SEA (vs . ARI)
Chris Carson is reportedly unlikely to play in this game, which means that Hyde will step in as the primary ball-carrier. Hyde was removed from the injury report on Wednesday and appears to be "all systems go" here. The Cardinals defense has had a reputation in the past for being a cake walk matchup, but they've been playing extremely well this year under Vance Joseph. They're currently the 12th most difficult matchup for opposing RBs, so we shouldn't be expecting a huge performance here from Hyde. With that being said, he's going to see plenty of volume. Hyde can be viewed as a mid-range RB2 this week that has an excellent chance of finding the end zone.
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52.
Jakobi Meyers
WR - NE (at HOU)
The Patriots wide receviers saw just seven targets last week. Go ahead, ask me how many of them Meyers got. All of them. Over the last four weeks, he's seen 37 targets, which account for a ridiculous 40.2 percent of Newton's pass attempts. If a receiver gets over 25 percent, it's elite. The Texans have only faced 19.1 wide receiver targets per game, but when they do see them, they produce. The 2.03 PPR points per target they've allowed ranks as the fourth-highest mark in the league, so Meyers' high target share should benefit greatly from that. The only issue with guaranteeing production is that Meyers is the clear-cut No. 1 receiver on their team right now and that likely means he'll see Bradley Roby, who's done a great job in coverage, allowing just 20-of-30 passing for 190 yards, though three of the receptions were for touchdowns. With Newton throwing just three touchdowns on the season, we have an issue with touchdowns bailing us out if Meyers doesn't rack up yardage, and that's why he remains in WR3 territory instead of moving higher.
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53.
Christian Kirk
WR - ARI (at SEA)
After posting top-32 numbers in four straight weeks (including three in the top-12), Kirk had a down performance against the Bills, finishing with just four catches for 27 yards. He's now averaged 7.3 targets per game over the last three weeks, which bodes well for his production in this week's matchup against the Seahawks. This should come as no surprise, but of the fantasy production the Seahawks have allowed, a league-high 62.6 percent of it go to the wide receiver position. The Steelers are the only other team over 56.7 percent. In fact, wide receivers have outscored running backs by a ridiculous 33.0 points per game against the Seahawks. The league average on that difference is around 12.0 points per game. Receivers have averaged a ridiculous 21.7 receptions per game against them, which allows for three fantasy-relevant receivers. The last time these two teams met, Kirk only caught five balls for 37 yards, but two of them were for touchdowns. If Shaquill Griffin has to sit out another week, Kirk will match up with D.J. Reed, a former fifth-round pick who's allowed 16-of-19 passing for 242 yards in his coverage this year. Kirk is firmly in the WR3 conversation this week, and should probably be in the high-end portion of it.
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54.
Marvin Jones Jr.
WR - DET (at CAR)
So, in his toughest matchup of the season, against the league's No. 1 defense against fantasy wide receivers, Jones racks up eight catches for 96 yards and a touchdown. Makes sense. He's scored four touchdowns in his last three games, and has accumulated at least 13.0 PPR points in each of the last four games, which is almost always enough to get a receiver into the top-36 for the week. With Golladay looking iffy again this week and Danny Amendola injuring his hip last week, the Lions are short on pass-catchers. It also doesn't hurt that Jones played nearly half of his snaps in the slot in Amendola's absence. This should lead to a big target share for Jones, which is important against the Panthers. There have been six wide receviers who've seen double-digit targets against them this year, and each one of those receivers finished with 19.7 or more PPR points. In fact, any receiver who's seen more than five targets has finished as the WR42 or better. The issue has been volume for receivers, as they've seen just 20.2 targets per game against the Panthers. On a per-target basis, they've been pretty average against them, allowing 8.07 yards per target and a touchdown every 22.4 targets. With the targets so concentrated to Jones, he should be played as a solid WR3 with top-15 upside this week.
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55.
Adrian Peterson
RB - DET (at CAR)
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56.
Melvin Gordon III
RB - DEN (vs . MIA)
We've gone back and forth every week on these two, trying to figure out who has the most value, but in the end, what if it's neither of them? Just once have one of them finished as a top-20 running back since Week 4. The Broncos defense is falling behind early and often, forcing them into a negative gamescript and passing more than they'd like. The Dolphins haven't allowed a rushing touchdown to a running back since way back in Week 4 and haven't allowed more than 128 yards on the ground to any team of running backs. It helps that they haven't faced many carries (21.8 per game), which is not great for this timeshare. They have allowed a high 6.55 yards per target to running backs, which ranks as the sixth-highest mark in the league, and part of the reason they've allowed the 13th-most fantasy points through the air to running backs. The Broncos haven't seemed to take advantage of matchups like this, like when they played the Falcons a few weeks ago, a team that had been crushed through the air by running backs, but Gordon and Lindsay combined for just one catch. Considering Gordon played double the snaps that Lindsay did, Gordon would be the preferred option, though he's nothing more than an RB3. Meanwhile, Lindsay finds himself in RB4 territory.
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57.
DeVante Parker
WR - MIA (at DEN)
He's not generating any separation, as his 1.8 yards of separation ranks as the second worst in the NFL, so he must rely on his quarterbacks to target him in tight coverage. Fortunately, Tagovailoa has been willing to do so. Parker had a brutal matchup last week with Casey Hayward and finished with just two catches for 31 yards, though he had a touchdown that was overturned that would've changed the hearts of many fantasy managers. He's now seen seven targets in each of his last two games with Tagovailoa, which should continue with the limited pass-catching options they have available right now. The Broncos have A.J. Bouye and Michael Ojemudia on the perimeter, which is where Parker spends most of his time. Those two have combined to allow 43-of-67 passing for 585 yards and four touchdowns in their coverage. There have been eight wide receivers who've been able to total 81-plus yards against the Broncos, though none of them have topped 104 yards, and that's despite 12 wide receivers seeing seven or more targets. The lack of passing with Tagovailoa under center is limiting to both Parker's floor and his ceiling, though we'd take seven targets per week from a WR3, which is where he is in the rankings, though in the mid-to-lower portion.
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58.
D.J. Moore
WR - CAR (vs . DET)
His top two games this year? Both against the Bucs. He totaled eight catches for 120 yards in Week 2 and then 96 yards and a touchdown in Week 10. He has totaled 93-plus yards in five different games, so it's not like he's been a complete bust. He's also seen a team-high 39.1 percent of the air yards, so his targets have had much more value than most. Him and Anderson have combined to account for a ridiculous 77.9 percent of the Panthers air yards. I told both Dan Harris and Kyle Yates on the podcast this stat and they found it hard to believe: Moore is on pace for 1,178 yards and six touchdowns, which would top his 2019 stats of 1,175 yards and four touchdowns. Crazy, eh? The Lions have allowed 12.98 yards per receptions, which is essentially the league average. They have allowed 34 pass plays of 20-plus yards, which ranks as the fifth-most. This plays well into Moore's role, as he leads the team in deep receptions (8) and yards (310). His primary matchup will be with Amani Oruwariye, who's allowed 15.5 yards per catch in his coverage, but has still yet to allow a touchdown. Moore is a bit more volatile than Anderson, which makes him more of a mid-to-high-end WR3 where you're taking a bit more risk for the upside.
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59.
Kenyan Drake
RB - ARI (at SEA)
I'll be honest... I figured Drake would be eased in after practicing in a limited fashion, but the Cardinals threw him right back into his featured 1-2 down role, racking up 16 carries that netted 100 yards. After struggling to start the year, Drake has now gained 298 yards on his last 50 carries (5.96 yards per carry). Unfortunately, he hasn't seen more than two targets in any single game, which means he's more of a touchdown-or-bust option most weeks. There are a lot of fantasy managers out there who'll see the Seahawks on the schedule and think it's a mountain of fantasy points, that's not so much true for running backs. Despite the outburst of three touchdowns last week by the Rams running backs, we've watched running backs total just 26.5 percent of the total production allowed to skill-position players, a number that ranks as the third lowest in the league. They've seen an average of just 19.1 carries per game against them, and keep in mind that's while their opponents have averaged a league-high 73.1 plays per game. When all is said and done, teams run the ball just 35.4 percent of the time against them, which is the lowest number in the league. The glimmer of hope is that the Seahawks have allowed a rushing touchdown every 19.1 carries, which is the third-most often in the league. With a game that has a 57.5-point total, he should have a better than average shot at a touchdown, though his lack of usage in the passing game keeps him in the mid-to-low-end RB2 range because if the gamescript goes south, Edmonds would likely play just as many snaps. As for Edmonds, he has RB3/flex appeal with his passing game role, as that's where running backs have had some success, averaging 5.96 yards per target. In a high-scoring game, it's probably best to lean with Edmonds over someone who falls into the same tier.
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60.
Mike Williams
WR - LAC (vs . NYJ)
We talked about it last week; Williams had a very tough matchup on the perimeter last week, as he was bound to see a lot of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones in coverage. Seeing him finish with just two catches for 38 yards wasn't too surprising. Don't worry about it because he's likely going to get back on track this week. Williams plays most of his snaps at RWR, which means he's going to see the most of Pierre Desir in coverage. He's allowed 35-of-47 passing for 491 yards and five touchdowns in his coverage. That's 2.43 PPR points per target, which ranks as the 10th-most in football among cornerbacks who've played at least 100 coverage snaps. The five touchdowns he's allowed in his coverage is the most in the NFL, which is perfect for someone like Williams, who's a big red zone target. He's seen at least five targets in four of the last five games, so he deserves to be in the risk/reward WR3/4 conversation this week.
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61.
Mark Andrews
TE - BAL (vs . TEN)
"Oh man, Andrews has been so bad this year, I have no idea what to do with him." *Checks season-long leaders, sees Andrews as the TE5* Proceeds to bang head against desk. It's been a mess at tight end, which has kept him in lineups, and last week may have been a glimpse into things getting back on track. You may not think it's a big deal, but Andrews finishing with seven catches for 61 yards against the league's No. 2 defense against tight ends is huge, especially before a matchup with the Titans who've allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. On average, the Titans allow 18.6 percent more fantasy points than their opponents have averaged in non-Titans games, which tells you about the strength of their schedule. Teams have found that targeting tight ends in the red zone against them makes sense, as they've seen a league-high 18 targets to tight ends in that area of the field. Andrews could have one of those weeks that remind you why he was considered a top-three tight end in fantasy drafts this week. Nick Boyle is also out for the season, which clears up another two targets per game. He's a great play in tournaments.
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62.
Jamison Crowder
WR - NYJ (at LAC)
He wound-up playing in Week 9 but it was the first time all season he played a game and saw fewer than 10 targets. Is it a result of Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims being healthy? It's possible, so we can't automatically assume he's the target hog he was to start the year, though it also could've had something to do with him being questionable throughout the week and not necessarily being built into the gameplan. The Chargers traded away their starting slot cornerback Desmond King at the trade deadline, which has led to last year's undrafted free agent Tevaughn Campbell covering the slot. That... hasn't gone well. He's allowed 9-of-11 passing for 92 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage. Jakeem Grant walked into relevance last week, totaling 4/43/1 on just five targets. If the Jets understand the matchups and where to exploit, Crowder should get his double-digit targets again this week. He should be in lineups as a high-end WR3.
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63.
Antonio Brown
WR - TB (vs . LAR)
He's looked good the first two weeks, hauling in 10-of-13 targets for 100 yards. His target share is very comparable to that of Evans and Godwin, so he belongs in a similar conversation as those two right now, and as he continues to learn the playbook, he could surpass them. It'll be tough this week against a Rams team that has allowed the fewest points per game to wide receivers, especially since Brown is essentially perimeter-only. Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams have combined to allow just 36-of-71 passing for 447 yards and three touchdowns in their coverage. That amounts to a measly 6.30 yards per target. They're coming off a game where they held D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to just seven catches and 94 scoreless yards on 13 targets. All-in-all, just six wide receivers have finished top-36 against them, which isn't good for Brown's outlook, who should be considered a high-end WR4.
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64.
Leonard Fournette
RB - TB (vs . LAR)
Did you need a reminder to never fully trust any Bucs running back? It seemed like Jones would be on the bench for the remainder of the game after fumbling on their first drive, but Bruce Arians went back to him after watching Fournette drop an easy pass in the flats. Jones proceeded to rip off a big run that led to a career day on the ground, racking up 198 total yards and a touchdown. Here's a fun stat: Based on the number of eight-man defensive fronts and yards before contact a running back has, they have an expected yards per carry. Based on that number from NFL's NextGenStats, Jones is averaging 1.41 more yards per carry than the average running back would, which ranks fourth to only Nick Chubb, Raheem Mostert, and Dalvin Cook. The Rams are dominant against the pass, but they've also been pretty good against the run, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to them. As far as carries go, teams are averaging 19.4 carries per game against them (fourth-fewest), which is detrimental to Jones' role as the primary two-down back, as he still concedes about 40-45 percent of the carries to Fournette over the last month. They allow just 4.03 per carry, so it's not like efficiency has been great. The Rams have allowed near the league average in yards per target (5.62) to running backs, which bodes well for Fournette, who sees nearly twice the targets that Jones does. But all-in-all, the Rams rank as the fourth-toughest opponent based on weighted opportunity. This isn't a game to expect a repeat performance out of Jones, who should be viewed as a high-end RB3 who comes with risk of touching the ball less than 15 times. It shouldn't surprise anyone if Fournette has a bigger game based on the strengths and weaknesses of the matchup, so he remains in the RB3 territory.
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65.
CeeDee Lamb
WR - DAL (at MIN)
Lamb was targeted 11 times in the last full game that Dalton played, which is enticing for fantasy managers that want to plug in the talented rookie wideout in this matchup. Unfortunately, there are too many unknowns with this offense right now to trust Lamb as a top-30 option, but he's certainly in the high-end FLEX conversation. He comes with a wide range of outcomes, but he should provide a safe enough floor to be played this week.
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66.
Chase Edmonds
RB - ARI (at SEA)
I'll be honest... I figured Drake would be eased in after practicing in a limited fashion, but the Cardinals threw him right back into his featured 1-2 down role, racking up 16 carries that netted 100 yards. After struggling to start the year, Drake has now gained 298 yards on his last 50 carries (5.96 yards per carry). Unfortunately, he hasn't seen more than two targets in any single game, which means he's more of a touchdown-or-bust option most weeks. There are a lot of fantasy managers out there who'll see the Seahawks on the schedule and think it's a mountain of fantasy points, that's not so much true for running backs. Despite the outburst of three touchdowns last week by the Rams running backs, we've watched running backs total just 26.5 percent of the total production allowed to skill-position players, a number that ranks as the third lowest in the league. They've seen an average of just 19.1 carries per game against them, and keep in mind that's while their opponents have averaged a league-high 73.1 plays per game. When all is said and done, teams run the ball just 35.4 percent of the time against them, which is the lowest number in the league. The glimmer of hope is that the Seahawks have allowed a rushing touchdown every 19.1 carries, which is the third-most often in the league. With a game that has a 57.5-point total, he should have a better than average shot at a touchdown, though his lack of usage in the passing game keeps him in the mid-to-low-end RB2 range because if the gamescript goes south, Edmonds would likely play just as many snaps. As for Edmonds, he has RB3/flex appeal with his passing game role, as that's where running backs have had some success, averaging 5.96 yards per target. In a high-scoring game, it's probably best to lean with Edmonds over someone who falls into the same tier.
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67.
Marquise Brown
WR - BAL (vs . TEN)
We've talked about it the last few weeks, so no need to beat a dead horse, but Brown just hasn't been efficient with his opportunity. His 41.5 percent share of the Ravens air yards ranks third in the NFL, so it's not like we can expect more volume. We must hope that efficiency picks up. It does help to know that Jackson has completed 75 percent of his passes over the last two weeks. Wide receivers have seen a massive 63.8 percent target share against the Titans, which ranks second to only the Seahawks. The Titans have allowed a massive 70.0 percent completion-rate to wide receviers, but receptions have gone for an average of just 11.20 yards, which is the lowest mark in the league. So, receivers pile up receptions against the Titans, which is evidenced by the 18.1 receptions per game they allow to them. Brown has seen six-plus targets in 7-of-9 games, so I'll point out that no wide receiver who's been targeted more than five times has finished with fewer than 8.8 PPR points against them (10-of-17 finished with 15-plus points), which may not sound like much, but it's more than Brown has scored in each of the last three games. He's fallen out of WR3 territory, but it's hard to say he's not a better start than most in the WR4 group, meaning he's in the WR4 portion of that group in a game the Ravens should throw more than they typically would.
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68.
Jerry Jeudy
WR - DEN (vs . MIA)
Since moving to the perimeter, Jeudy has been much more involved in the offense and has 32 targets over the last three games. It surely helps that the Broncos defense hasn't been able to stop anyone, which has led to negative gamescripts. Still, Jeudy managers will take it, as he's finished with 10.8-plus points in three straight games. Teams haven't had much success while doing it, but wide receivers have seen a rather-high 61.9 percent target share against the Dolphins, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league. The perimeter duo of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones is one of the best in football. Just last week we saw them limit Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to just five catches for 77 yards combined, though Allen did find the end zone. On the season, the Dolphins have allowed just 1.65 PPR points per target, which ranks as the fifth-lowest mark in the league, so volume has been important. Jeudy's volume is enough to keep him in that WR3 conversation, but this game just feels like a low-scoring affair.
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69.
T.J. Hockenson
TE - DET (at CAR)
We saw Hockenson pop up on the injury report mid-week, which was never a good sign. Was his toe injury bothering him to the point where it affected his efficiency? He was playing against what might be the league's worst defense against tight ends but finished with just two catches for 13 yards on four targets. We'll have to pay attention to the practice reports this week. The matchup with the Panthers is hardly one to get too excited about, as they rank as the 12th-toughest matchup for tight ends according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. There's been just one tight end who's topped 54 yards against them this season, and that was Travis Kelce, who saw 12 targets. Still, it's not all bad, as nine different tight ends have totaled at least 31 yards against them, which may not seem like much, but it's a decent floor. The Panthers have seen 78 tight end targets on the season, which ranks as the second-most in the NFL. With many of the pass-catchers dinged up, we should see Hockenson rack up some targets. Because of that, he should remain in lineups as a high-floor mid-to-low-end TE1 option.
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70.
J.D. McKissic
RB - WAS (vs . CIN)
The running joke on the podcast for us last week was that we can't expect 14 targets from McKissic again in week ten. Well, we were partially right. He got 15 targets last week and he now has 29 over the past two weeks. While McKissic isn't viewed as a top-tier fantasy asset, he's proving to be incredibly reliable now with Alex Smith at QB. In Half PPR scoring, McKissic has finished the last two weeks as the RB12 and the RB14. Continue to plug him into your starting lineup as a safe RB2 with upside in this matchup.
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71.
Curtis Samuel
WR - CAR (vs . DET)
Just when you feel like you can trust Samuel, he goes and finishes with 12 total yards. It's a bump in what's been a strong stretch for him, though we talked about this last week; he's finished with 51 or less receiving yards in all but one of his games, so he's extremely reliant on touchdowns or rushing production, which were hard to come by against the Bucs. The Lions, on the other hand, they've allowed 34.0 points per game over their last three contests, and they've allowed more rushing production than all but three teams. The Lions have also welcomed Justin Coleman back into the slot, which has been a disaster, as he's allowed 86-of-131 passing for 985 yards and eight touchdowns in a Lions uniform, which is good for a 100-plus QB Rating. Samuel was a disappointment last week, but he's right back in that high-end WR4 conversation this week.
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72.
Jarvis Landry
WR - CLE (vs . PHI)
Through two games without Beckham, the Browns target share has been: Landry 16, Higgins 7, Donovan Peoples-Jones 2, KhaDarel Hodge 1. The wind was brutal in both of the games, which likely did benefit Landry who averages just 9.7 air yards per target, so we can't expect his target share to be that high. The Eagles have been much better against wide receivers than most realize. If we were to remove the 162 yards and three touchdowns they've allowed on the ground to receivers, they would rank as the eighth-worst matchup for wide receivers. If there's one thing Landry has going for him, it's that they've not quite figured out how to stop slot receivers. Between Nickell Robey-Coleman and Cre'Von LeBlanc, they've combined to allow 35-of-43 passing for 406 yards and two touchdowns in the slot. That's worth a 120-plus QB Rating. There have been seven wide receivers who've seen more than six targets against them, and each of them were able to finish as top-36 receivers. Landry should be considered a relatively safe high-floor WR3/4 option.
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73.
Nyheim Hines
RB - IND (vs . GB)
I can't tell you how many followers have asked me about what to do with this backfield, and it's tough to say that my guess is any better than theirs. Now explain to me if there are any trends you see, outside of the fact that Taylor has been slowly declining. Hines looked extremely good on Thursday night, but he's looked good before and hasn't received a lot of touches. Wilkins will likely lose touches after alligator-arming his goal-line target that easily could've gone for a pick-six. It stinks that we don't have a clear play here, as the Packers are a team to target with running backs. Running backs have averaged 0.21 more fantasy points per play against the Packers than they do on average. That's the highest mark in the NFL, though their opponents have struggled to rack up plays. When you look at the production they've allowed to skill-position players, running backs have accounted for 43.2 percent of it, the most in the NFL. By comparison, running backs account for just 24.9 percent of the production the Falcons give up goes to running backs. When comparing production allowed to running backs and wide receivers, the Packers have allowed just 2.0 more PPR points per game to wide receivers than running backs, which ranks as the second-smallest gap in the league. On average, NFL teams allow about 12.0 more PPR points per game to wide receivers than running backs. It's not just on the ground, either, as running backs have seen a massive 22.9 percent target share against them (4th in NFL). Despite the Packers facing just 28.0 touches per game to running backs (right around the league average), they've allowed the second-most PPR points per game to them. That's because they're allowing a rushing touchdown every 18.0 carries, which is more often than any other team in the league. They've also allowed a league-high 7.40 yards per target and 1.94 PPR points per target through the air to running backs. All in all, the Packers have allowed more fantasy points per opportunity to running backs than any team in the league. The problem is that we don't know who to trust in this backfield. If Taylor doesn't get it done here, he's droppable. I'm willing to take the risk and play him as an upside RB3. Hines falls into a similar space, whose floor should be higher than Taylor's, though as referenced in the chart above, he's hardly a guarantee for more than five touches. Wilkins should lose more touches and fall into RB4 territory.
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74.
Jonathan Taylor
RB - IND (vs . GB)
I can't tell you how many followers have asked me about what to do with this backfield, and it's tough to say that my guess is any better than theirs. Now explain to me if there are any trends you see, outside of the fact that Taylor has been slowly declining. Hines looked extremely good on Thursday night, but he's looked good before and hasn't received a lot of touches. Wilkins will likely lose touches after alligator-arming his goal-line target that easily could've gone for a pick-six. It stinks that we don't have a clear play here, as the Packers are a team to target with running backs. Running backs have averaged 0.21 more fantasy points per play against the Packers than they do on average. That's the highest mark in the NFL, though their opponents have struggled to rack up plays. When you look at the production they've allowed to skill-position players, running backs have accounted for 43.2 percent of it, the most in the NFL. By comparison, running backs account for just 24.9 percent of the production the Falcons give up goes to running backs. When comparing production allowed to running backs and wide receivers, the Packers have allowed just 2.0 more PPR points per game to wide receivers than running backs, which ranks as the second-smallest gap in the league. On average, NFL teams allow about 12.0 more PPR points per game to wide receivers than running backs. It's not just on the ground, either, as running backs have seen a massive 22.9 percent target share against them (4th in NFL). Despite the Packers facing just 28.0 touches per game to running backs (right around the league average), they've allowed the second-most PPR points per game to them. That's because they're allowing a rushing touchdown every 18.0 carries, which is more often than any other team in the league. They've also allowed a league-high 7.40 yards per target and 1.94 PPR points per target through the air to running backs. All in all, the Packers have allowed more fantasy points per opportunity to running backs than any team in the league. The problem is that we don't know who to trust in this backfield. If Taylor doesn't get it done here, he's droppable. I'm willing to take the risk and play him as an upside RB3. Hines falls into a similar space, whose floor should be higher than Taylor's, though as referenced in the chart above, he's hardly a guarantee for more than five touches. Wilkins should lose more touches and fall into RB4 territory.
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75.
Travis Fulgham
WR - PHI (at CLE)
Wentz's poor quarterback play finally caught up with Fulgham, as he was only able to bring in 1-of-5 targets for a measly eight yards. It was the first time Fulgham had finished with fewer than five catches or 73 yards in five games as a starter, so we can't sway too far in the other direction, but rather accept that there may be some volatility in his weekly finishes due to poor quarterback play. Some have said that the return of Alshon Jeffery was the reason for Fulgham's struggles, but that wasn't it; he played 59-of-67 snaps. Don't worry too much about the Texans wide receivers not producing against the Browns last week, because before that game they'd allowed 6.4 more fantasy points per game to wide receivers than their opponents average in non-Browns games. That's the second-biggest gap in the league, so this is not a matchup that's a must-avoid for Fulgham. A lot of the production has come from touchdowns, though, as the 7.87 yards per target they've allowed to receivers ranks as the 10th-lowest mark in the league. Fulgham should be considered a low-end WR3 who comes with some instability, but his role appears to be safe.
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76.
Michael Pittman Jr.
WR - IND (vs . GB)
We've seen the Colts turning to Pittman as the go-to receiver in the offense, as he's seen a team-high 15 targets over the last two weeks, netting back-to-back career-high performances, including seven receptions for 101 yards against the Titans. He actually played 10 more snaps than both Hilton and Pascal, so it's not just the targets. The downside is that the Packers could choose to shadow him with Jaire Alexander, though this doesn't feel like an obvious shadow situation, as teams still respect Hilton. Pittman has been moving all over the formation since his return, including about 40 percent of his snaps in the slot, so he'll see a mix of all Packers cornerbacks. They've allowed just 7.76 yards per target to receivers this year, which ranks as the fifth-lowest mark in the league, so when you combine that with the minimal targets receivers see against them, it's a problem. They have allowed a touchdown every 18.9 targets, which is the 12th-most often, but with the lack of volume, it's amounted to just one wide receiver touchdown per game. Pittman is certainly the best bet on the Colts, but still remains in WR4 territory.
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77.
J.K. Dobbins
RB - BAL (vs . TEN)
Over a span of seven games, so not a single one of them has averaged nine touches per game. Opponents have chosen to run the ball against the Titans on just 39.0 percent of their plays, which ranks as the seventh-lowest percentage in the league. Because of that, running backs have combined for 26.8 touches per game. That's slightly better than the 22.6 these running backs are averaging in games they're all active, though almost all of them are carries. The Titans have allowed 4.41 yards per carry and eight rushing touchdowns, which are both around the league average. There have been seven running backs who've finished top-20 against the Titans, but they all have one thing in common: they all received at least 12 carries, which is something only Gus Edwards can say he's done with all three of them on the field, though the game he did was where Ingram had to leave early. None of these running backs can be recommended starts, including Dobbins who hasn't totaled more than seven touches when all three running backs play the whole game. He offers the most one-play upside, which is why he's the best play, but he's nothing more than a risky RB4. Ingram and Edwards are both low-floor, low-ceiling RB4/5 options.
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78.
Jalen Reagor
WR - PHI (at CLE)
In two games back from his injury, Reagor has seen a team-high 13 targets. While they haven't led to much production, following those type of targets in fantasy is usually the smart move, especially when it's a player like Reagor who has one-play upside. Despite the Browns being stuck in two high-wind games the last few weeks, they're allowing wide receivers 21.6 more PPR points than they do running backs, which is the third-largest gap in the league. A lot of the production they've allowed has gone to slot-heavy receivers, which is where Reagor lined up 40 percent of the time in Week 10, which offers some hope to his projection. The downside is that the Browns have allowed just 25 pass plays of 20-plus yards this year, which ranks as the sixth-fewest in the league, so expecting that one-play upside may not happen. Still, we're expecting a lot of pass attempts out of Wentz, so Reagor should at the very least be able to be played as a decent WR4-type option with his targets the last two weeks.
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79.
Mecole Hardman
WR - KC (at LV)
The good news is that he's played a very high 45 and 42 offensive snaps over their last two games. The bad news is that Watkins is due back to the lineup, which is likely to cut his snaps significantly. Hardman has seen more than four targets just twice all season. He's highly unpredictable on a week-to-week basis. The reason fantasy mangers continue to consider him is due to his insane efficiency, as he's turned 74 career targets into 933 yards and nine touchdowns. That's an insane 2.68 PPR points per target. The matchup doesn't even matter at this point. He's the definition of a hail-mary WR5 play when desperate.
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80.
Breshad Perriman
WR - NYJ (at LAC)
He hasn't been healthy throughout the year, but he looked good in Week 9 against the Patriots, racking up five catches for 101 yards and two touchdowns. His targets by week have been 5, 2, 8, 2, 7. That's not great for reliability. The Chargers defense has hardly been anything close to what we expected (injuries have decimated them), but of the production they allow to skill-position players, wide receivers are accounting for just 45.2 percent of it, which ranks as the fifth-lowest mark in the league. On top of that, Perriman is a perimeter-only receiver, which means he'll see a lot of Casey Hayward and Michael Davis, who've been much better than the defenders over the middle of the field. They've combined to allow 56-of-100 passing for 798 yards and five touchdowns. That amounts to just 7.98 yards per target and a touchdown every 20.0 targets. The Chargers as a team have allowed just 23 pass plays of 20-plus yards this year, which ranks as the fifth-fewest in the league. When you combine his unstable target share with the matchup, he's nothing more than a boom-or-bust WR5.
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81.
Corey Davis
WR - TEN (at BAL)
He played with a heavy heart in Week 10, as he'd lost his brother to cancer the day before the game. My condolences go out to the Davis family. He led the team with five catches for 67 yards, making it 6-of-7 games where he's finished with at least 11.7 PPR points. The only game he didn't was against the Bears, who have been one of the best in the league at slowing down the position. Right behind them, though, are the Ravens. In fact, both the Bears and the Ravens have allowed just 1.52 PPR points per target to wide receivers, which is tied for the lowest mark in the league. They have allowed a respectable 64.6 percent catch-rate to receivers, but they haven't gone very far, as the 11.39 yards per receptions indicates (third-lowest in NFL). Davis is going to see a lot of Marcus Peters in coverage, who is pretty consistent on the underneath routes that Davis typically runs. If there's an area of weakness to Peters' game, it's down the field, but Davis has been targeted deep (20-plus yards) just four times all season. He's not a recommended start this week, as he falls into low-end WR4 territory.
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82.
Michael Gallup
WR - DAL (at MIN)
Gallup's been too hit-or-miss this season to trust in your lineup this week as anything more than a boom-or-bust FLEX play. He certainly can exploit the matchup here against the Vikings secondary, but it's far from a guarantee.
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83.
La'Mical Perine
RB - NYJ (at LAC)
For those who were hoping that Perine would eventually get to showcase his ability, it seems Adam Gase doesn't want to make that happen. Since cutting Le'Veon Bell, the touch count has been Gore 50, Perine 40. We're seeing a lot more of Gore with early-down work (he's outproducing Perine there) while Perine is getting slightly more passing-down usage. When you see this sort of timeshare in a backfield that averages just 23.0 touches per game, it's a problem. The Chargers have seen just 25.8 running back touches per game, which is one of the lower marks in the league, which again, is not good for a timeshare. Gore has now gone 230 carries without a single touchdown, which dates back to Week 3 of last year. Add in his 3.57 yards per carry he's averaging, and it really doesn't matter that the Chargers are allowing 4.87 yards per carry. They've tightened up in the red zone, too, allowing just five rushing touchdowns (seventh-fewest) on 178 carries. Production through the air against them has been minimal, as they've allowed just 4.59 yards per target, which is the third-lowest mark in the league. There was a report that came out on Wednesday where Adam Gase said Perine would "get more work moving forward" but also went on to say that Gore will still be involved. I suppose we should expect Perine to lead the timeshare, but even then, he's stuck in the low-end RB3/high-end RB4 territory, as this duo has averaged just 22.5 touches per game over the last four games.
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84.
Hunter Henry
TE - LAC (vs . NYJ)
It was more of the same with Henry last week, as he caught four passes and finished in-between 30-33 yards for the third straight game, but he scored, making everything appear okay. Again, he hasn't topped 39 yards since way back in Week 3. It's something that makes no sense to me, as he's averaging 6.6 targets per game from a quarterback who's been fantastic, yet he's struggling to produce. The Jets have allowed a 75.0 percent completion-rate (6th), 8.38 yards per target (5th), and a touchdown every 9.3 targets (third-most often) to tight ends, which all adds up to 2.23 PPR points per target, the third-highest mark in the NFL. It's considered the eighth-best schedule adjusted matchup for tight ends, as they've averaged 13.6 percent more than their seasonal-average when playing the Jets. There have been just three tight ends who've seen four-plus targets against them, and their finishes were TE1, TE5, and TE14. Despite Henry struggling to produce much yardage, he remains in the TE1 conversation in a plus-matchup.
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85.
Darrell Henderson
RB - LAR (at TB)
In case you needed a reminder about why I've been saying to sell your shares of Henderson, last week highlighted my concerns. Sean McVay has legitimately told us he wants to model the Rams run game after Kyle Shanahan's offense in San Francisco. What better way to do that than start a three-way timeshare? The snaps were Brown 29, Henderson 23, and Akers 18, while the touches were Akers 10, Brown 8, and Henderson 8. Yeah, not great. The Bucs have not only seen a minuscule 19.0 carries per game on the ground, but even when running backs get carries, they don't amount to much. They've allowed just 3.01 yards per carry on the season, which is easily the best mark in the NFL and a repeat of what they did last year. Production has been rare to come by on the ground against the Bucs (4th-fewest fantasy points allowed on the ground), but running backs are averaging a rather-high 22.9 percent target share against them, which ranks fourth in the league. That's the reason they've allowed a league-high 66 receptions to the running back position. On the season, Brown has run 170 routes, while Henderson has run 85, and Akers has run 21, so this is clearly a benefit to Brown. The Bucs have allowed 13.4 PPR points per game through the air alone to running backs, which is the third-most in the league. It's odd to say but Brown might have the most value this week, though Henderson is right there, as he's still involved in the passing game a little bit and gets 47.1 percent of the carries inside the five-yard line, but both are just RB3-type options this week. Akers is moving up the board, but given his lack of involvement through the air, he's just a RB4/5.
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86.
Josh Reynolds
WR - LAR (at TB)
He has more games with nine-plus targets over the last two weeks than Woods does on the whole season. Take a look at his targets by week, that have clearly been escalating: 1, 2, 5, 4, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10. If he didn't have his bye in-between there, he'd rank ninth in targets over the last three weeks. The downside is that the Bucs have been dominant on the perimeter, as the duo of Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean have allowed just 5.87 yards per target. If you're playing Reynolds, the hope is for a touchdown, as those two have allowed a touchdown every 18.3 targets to receivers, though that's not something you want to bank on when Goff is throwing just 1.44 touchdowns per game. Reynolds is moving up the fantasy radar, but he's in the lackluster WR4/5 conversation this week.
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87.
Rex Burkhead
RB - NE (at HOU)
What makes Harris' production on the ground that much more special is the fact that he's done it while seeing eight-man defensive fronts on a league-high 43.5 percent of his carries. No other running back in the NFL is over 34.0 percent. Teams know it's coming and they still haven't been able to stop it. Running backs have averaged 30.8 PPR points per game against the Texans, which ranks as the third-highest number in the league. It certainly helps that they've averaged a ridiculous 27.9 carries per game against them. Not touches per game... carries. They've faced more carries than 19 teams have seen touches to running backs. When you combine that with the 5.53 yards per carry they've allowed (just one other team is above 4.88 yards per carry), you get a massive 22.8 fantasy points per game on the ground alone. That's more than 15 teams allow to the running back position as a whole... in PPR formats. Think about that. They've allowed 204.9 fantasy points on the ground, while there's been just one other team (Lions) who's allowed more than 168.8 fantasy points on the ground. All in all, the Texans have faced a league-high 31.9 running back touches per game. They've now allowed 1,715 total yards to running backs, which is 95 more than any other team. Harris has earned the right to be started as a solid RB2, though his lack of passing game usage makes him gamescript dependent and presents volatility. You have to wonder if White is dealing with an injury, as he's been completely eliminated from the offense, totaling just 13 touches over the last four games combined. He cannot be trusted as anything more than an emergency RB4 who has a great matchup. As for Burkhead, he's now received 41 opportunities over the last four weeks, which are enough to get you into the flex conversation, so when you add in a matchup with one of the league's worst defenses at slowing down running backs, he's worth considering as an RB3/flex.
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88.
Rob Gronkowski
TE - TB (vs . LAR)
He got back to his Gronk-like ways in Week 11, scoring for the fourth time in five games. He's also totaled at least 41 yards in six of the last eight games, so he's providing a floor that not many tight ends have. The Rams have done a phenomenal job with wide receivers, and that's likely what's led to tight ends accounted for 21.4 percent of the production to skill-position players against them, which ranks as the fourth-highest number in the league. Opponents have also given their tight ends a 24.3 percent target share (3rd in NFL), which also bodes well for Gronkowski's floor in this game. The matchups on the perimeter are brutal, which is why we should expect to see a few more targets funneled Gronkowski's way this week. The targets that have gone to tight ends, which is a big sample size, haven't amounted to much, as the 6.03 yards per target indicates. George Kittle was the only tight end who totaled more than 42 yards against them, which seems bad, but six tight ends have caught four-plus passes. Knowing Gronkowski is harder to bring down than the average tight end, his catches should net more yardage, especially considering the Rams can't exactly focus on shutting him down with Evans, Godwin, and Brown out there. Gronkowski should be viewed as an every-week TE1 at this point.
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89.
Kerryon Johnson
RB - DET (at CAR)
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90.
Tim Patrick
WR - DEN (vs . MIA)
He was ejected from last week's game for fighting, but at least he was able to produce four catches for 61 yards prior to that happening. The downside is that he's fallen behind Jeudy on the pecking order. This week's matchup is not a great one for wide receivers, particularly those who play almost all their snaps on the perimeter. Wide receivers are catching just 60.1 percent of the passes thrown their way against the Dolphins, which is the second-lowest mark in the NFL. Receivers have been targeted a solid 22.6 times per game (5th-most in NFL), which helps make up for some of the lack of efficiency. Patrick's primary matchup is going to be with Xavien Howard, a cornerback who's dominant at times. If there's one particular type of receiver he's struggled with, it's those who are elite route runners, which is not something you'd say about Patrick. All in all, there have been just 10 wide receivers who've finished as top-36 options against the Dolphins despite all that volume. Patrick is just a low-end WR4/high-end WR5 in this matchup.
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91.
Dallas Goedert
TE - PHI (at CLE)
He was hurt early in the game, which led to him missing some time to get checked for a concussion. It allowed his teammate Richard Rodgers step in to produce a bit. The two of them combined for 11 targets, eight receptions, and 93 yards last week, so the thought process behind playing Goedert was correct but the results were less than ideal. The Browns have allowed just 8.98 yards per reception to tight ends, which is the second-lowest number in the league, but have still managed to allow the 10th-most fantasy points per game to them. Volume has been a constant against them, as there have been eight tight ends who've seen six-plus targets against them. The lack of linebacker and safety health/talent on the roster is likely the reason for that. Whatever the case, eight tight ends have also racked up four-plus receptions in this matchup, which gives Goedert a floor that tight end owners can only dream of in 2020. Did you know that Goedert's four catches for 33 yards last week ranked 15th among tight ends? Seriously, it's bad. Knowing the targets and receptions will be there again this week, keep Goedert in lineups as a TE1.
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92.
Henry Ruggs III
WR - LV (vs . KC)
This is getting really old, really quick. Ruggs has now seen 25 targets this season. There have been 11 receivers who've seen more than 25 targets over the last three weeks, including Anthony Miller. It's odd to say the least. Knowing that and heading into a matchup with the Chiefs who've allowed the third-fewest yards per target (7.40) to wide receviers this year, we have major issues. The 11.95 yards per reception they allow doesn't bode well for a receiver who's used primarily as a deep threat, as they've allowed just 26 pass plays of 20-plus yards, which is the ninth-fewest in the league. When these teams met in Week 5, Ruggs saw three targets and turned them into two catches (one off his career high) for 118 yards and a touchdown, so he was able to get loose. Since the start of 2019, the Chiefs have allowed just 127.6 yards per game to wide receivers. Do you want to take the chance that Ruggs breaks loose again in this matchup? With his 3-4 targets in each of the last six games, it's not the greatest bet, making him a boom-or-bust WR4/5 option.
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93.
KJ Hamler
WR - DEN (vs . MIA)
He's the team's slot receiver, which was the role that Jeudy was playing earlier in the year. That's going to limit his reliability (like it did Jeudy), but if we keep seeing 10 targets per game like he has the last two weeks, he's going to be in play. He might have the best matchup on the field this week, because while Jeudy and Patrick deal with Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, Hamler gets Nik Needham. He's a formerly undrafted free agent who's allowed 68-of-109 passing for 938 yards and nine touchdowns in his coverage over the last two years, which is good enough for a 109.8 QB Rating. His official 40-time was 4.72 seconds, which doesn't quite bode well for his chances of keeping up with the speedy Hamler, who was expected to run a high 4.2 or low 4.3-second 40-yard dash (hamstring injury kept him from completing at the Combine). If you're looking for a potential home run threat, Hamler could be it as a boom-or-bust WR4-type option.
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94.
Malcolm Brown
RB - LAR (at TB)
In case you needed a reminder about why I've been saying to sell your shares of Henderson, last week highlighted my concerns. Sean McVay has legitimately told us he wants to model the Rams run game after Kyle Shanahan's offense in San Francisco. What better way to do that than start a three-way timeshare? The snaps were Brown 29, Henderson 23, and Akers 18, while the touches were Akers 10, Brown 8, and Henderson 8. Yeah, not great. The Bucs have not only seen a minuscule 19.0 carries per game on the ground, but even when running backs get carries, they don't amount to much. They've allowed just 3.01 yards per carry on the season, which is easily the best mark in the NFL and a repeat of what they did last year. Production has been rare to come by on the ground against the Bucs (4th-fewest fantasy points allowed on the ground), but running backs are averaging a rather-high 22.9 percent target share against them, which ranks fourth in the league. That's the reason they've allowed a league-high 66 receptions to the running back position. On the season, Brown has run 170 routes, while Henderson has run 85, and Akers has run 21, so this is clearly a benefit to Brown. The Bucs have allowed 13.4 PPR points per game through the air alone to running backs, which is the third-most in the league. It's odd to say but Brown might have the most value this week, though Henderson is right there, as he's still involved in the passing game a little bit and gets 47.1 percent of the carries inside the five-yard line, but both are just RB3-type options this week. Akers is moving up the board, but given his lack of involvement through the air, he's just a RB4/5.
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95.
Gus Edwards
RB - BAL (vs . TEN)
Over a span of seven games, so not a single one of them has averaged nine touches per game. Opponents have chosen to run the ball against the Titans on just 39.0 percent of their plays, which ranks as the seventh-lowest percentage in the league. Because of that, running backs have combined for 26.8 touches per game. That's slightly better than the 22.6 these running backs are averaging in games they're all active, though almost all of them are carries. The Titans have allowed 4.41 yards per carry and eight rushing touchdowns, which are both around the league average. There have been seven running backs who've finished top-20 against the Titans, but they all have one thing in common: they all received at least 12 carries, which is something only Gus Edwards can say he's done with all three of them on the field, though the game he did was where Ingram had to leave early. None of these running backs can be recommended starts, including Dobbins who hasn't totaled more than seven touches when all three running backs play the whole game. He offers the most one-play upside, which is why he's the best play, but he's nothing more than a risky RB4. Ingram and Edwards are both low-floor, low-ceiling RB4/5 options.
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96.
Denzel Mims
WR - NYJ (at LAC)
He's only played three NFL games, but he's shown some promise, totaling at least 42 yards in each game. Unfortunately, it seems like his targets may be hard to predict (like all Jets receivers), as he's seen 7, 3, 8 in his three games. Similar to Perriman, Mims has played almost exclusively on the perimeter, which means he'll also go against Casey Hayward and Michael Davis, one of the better perimeter duos in the league this year. As stated in the Perriman notes, they've combined to allow 56-of-100 passing for 798 yards and five touchdowns, which amounts to just 7.98 yards per target and a touchdown every 20.0 targets. Flacco might be better for their projections because he can throw the deep ball (Mims has the highest aDOT on the team at 13.7 yards), but the Chargers haven't been susceptible to the big play this year. Mims is someone to monitor but he's nothing more than a dart-throw in fantasy lineups right now with limited upside.
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97.
Hayden Hurst
TE - ATL (at NO)
He was the No. 5 tight end in fantasy as he went into his bye week, which says a lot about the issues many have had with the position throughout the year. There have been a lot of "do I drop Hurst" questions in my mentions all year. He's now totaled at least 51 yards in six of his last eight games, so even though he's scored just once in his last six games, his floor has been fantastic as he continues to develop chemistry and learn the ins and outs of the offense. Many look at the Saints and think, "Oh, they've allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends. It's a great matchup." That's not the case. If you were to take away the one game to Darren Waller where he saw 16 targets and played receiver, racking up 12/103/1 out of the sample size, they've yet to allow a tight end more than five catches or 62 yards. Prior to Jordan Reed last week, they'd held five straight tight ends to 23 yards or less. Malcolm Jenkins has been coming around in his new defense and playing like the safety he was in Philadelphia. It's not to say you can't play Hurst, but it's more saying that the matchup isn't as good as it looks on paper. Hurst has seen at least six targets in five of his last six games, so you're not thinking of benching him, but it also may not be a week to pay up for him in DFS.
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98.
T.Y. Hilton
WR - IND (vs . GB)
He returned to the lineup in Week 10 and did what he's been doing all year... disappointing fantasy managers. He hasn't finished with more than 72 yards or scored a touchdown since way back in Week 7 of last year. That's a span of 13 games he's played in, or almost a full NFL season. He has just one top-36 finish during that time (WR34). The Packers have allowed just six wide receivers to post top-36 numbers all year, so it's not likely he turns things around this week. It doesn't help that teams have targeted their receivers just 18.9 times per game, which is one of the lowest marks in the league. Considering Hilton has seen just 26.7 percent of the Colts wide receiver targets on the season, this is problematic. He should be considered just a low-upside WR4/5 option.
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99.
Latavius Murray
RB - NO (vs . ATL)
And the beat goes on... We're now headed into Week 11 and Kamara has yet to finish worse than the RB13 in half-PPR formats. He's played the Bucs twice, Bears, and 49ers. The guy is just playing on a different level right now. Everyone sees the Falcons on the schedule and thinks, "Jackpot!" though that's not really the case. Of the fantasy points the Falcons have allowed to skill-position players, just 24.9 percent of them have gone to running backs, which is the lowest percentage in the league. Did you know that teams of running backs typically outscore the quarterback in fantasy points per game? Well, if you didn't, you do now. Running backs typically average 5.0 more PPR points per game than quarterbacks, but against the Falcons, quarterbacks average 5.2 more PPR points per game than the running backs. Teams have seemingly realized it's more profitable to move the ball through the air against them, as the Falcons have faced a league-low 17.7 carries per game. They're also one of three teams who've allowed less than four rushing touchdowns. Because of that, they've allowed the fewest fantasy points on the ground to running backs. Read that again because you may have missed it. The Falcons have allowed the fewest fantasy points on the ground to running backs at just 8.4 points per game. Fortunately, for Kamara, they've allowed tons of production through the air. The 12.7 PPR points per game they've allowed to running backs through the air alone ranks as the fifth most in the league. All in all, the Falcons have allowed just 23.6 touches per game to running backs (second-fewest) and have held them to the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game. We know by now that you don't ever consider fading Kamara, no matter the matchup. Start him as an elite RB1 every week. Murray, on the other hand, he's someone whose skill-set does not match up in this game at all, making him a weak touchdown-dependent RB4.
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100.
Eric Ebron
TE - PIT (at JAC)
When you have all the receiving options the Steelers do, you're going to get some letdown performances. Fortunately, it was a horrendous week at tight end, so his two catches for 38 yards didn't kill your lineup. He's averaging 5.9 targets per game since the start of Week 2, which is all we can ask for out of a tight end in 2020, especially when his quarterback is playing well. He also gets another great matchup in Week 11. Despite seeing the ninth-fewest targets to the tight end position, the Jaguars have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to them. The 2.34 PPR points per target they allow ranks second to only the Falcons. It's kind of crazy looking at the game logs against them, as no tight end has caught more than four passes, while just one has been targeted more than five times. It's one of those matchups where you have plus-matchups all over the field, and teams have simply chosen to target others. When actually targeted, tight ends average 0.34 more half-PPR points per target than their seasonal average against the Jaguars, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league. He comes with risk, but what tight end doesn't? In a game the Steelers have a 28.8-point team-implied total, he deserves low-end TE1 consideration.
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101.
Keelan Cole Sr.
WR - JAC (vs . PIT)
Despite a tough matchup with the Packers, Cole bounced back in Week 10 catching 5-of-7 targets for 47 yards and a touchdown, while also chipping in a punt return touchdown. He's still topped 58 yards just once this year, so it's not like you're able to play him with much confidence. The Steelers have been a team to allow production to slot-heavy receivers, as Randall Cobb, CeeDee Lamb, Willie Snead, Greg Ward, Jerry Jeudy, and Tyler Boyd all finished with 10-plus PPR points against them, though none of them finished better than the WR18. Four of them saw seven-plus targets, so volume was fairly important. The seven targets last week were nice, but we can't forget about the back-to-back two-target games in the prior two weeks where he finished with two catches for 18 yards. Cole is just a WR5 who's a bit too shaky and his ceiling isn't high enough to play him over others in that territory.
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102.
Noah Fant
TE - DEN (vs . MIA)
I mentioned last week that I was worried about Fant's efficiency after reinjuring his high-ankle sprain, so watching him turn seven targets into just three receptions for 18 yards against the Raiders wasn't very surprising. The more the weeks go on, the better he should be, but the matchup against Miami hasn't been a good one for tight ends. We're entering Week 11 of the season and they've allowed just one tight end to finish with more than 9.1 PPR points. That tight end was Hunter Henry last week, who finished with just four catches for 30 yards... but scored a touchdown. There have been four tight ends, including George Kittle, who've seen six-plus targets against them, but no tight end has finished with more than 44 yards. By looking at their schedule, they haven't played many top-tier tight ends, but still, they rank as the ninth-toughest matchup according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. Fant should be considered a mediocre low-end TE1.
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103.
Rashard Higgins
WR - CLE (vs . PHI)
Outside of his one explosion game when Odell Beckham got hurt, Higgins hasn't reached 50 receiving yards in any game. The lack of volume in the offense surely hasn't helped, as the team has thrown the ball just 45 times over their last two games while in windy conditions. The sliver of hope is that Higgins did lead the team with 48 yards last week, though that's hardly enough to start in fantasy. The Eagles have been much better against wide receivers than they were last year, allowing just eight of them to finish as top-36 options. Every one of them saw at least six targets, which is a number Higgins hit just once. On a per-target basis, the Eagles have allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points per target (1.66) to receivers. When playing for a team that averages 28.1 pass attempts per game, it's tough for the No. 2 option to be trusted as anything more than a WR5.
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104.
Phillip Lindsay
RB - DEN (vs . MIA)
We've gone back and forth every week on these two, trying to figure out who has the most value, but in the end, what if it's neither of them? Just once have one of them finished as a top-20 running back since Week 4. The Broncos defense is falling behind early and often, forcing them into a negative gamescript and passing more than they'd like. The Dolphins haven't allowed a rushing touchdown to a running back since way back in Week 4 and haven't allowed more than 128 yards on the ground to any team of running backs. It helps that they haven't faced many carries (21.8 per game), which is not great for this timeshare. They have allowed a high 6.55 yards per target to running backs, which ranks as the sixth-highest mark in the league, and part of the reason they've allowed the 13th-most fantasy points through the air to running backs. The Broncos haven't seemed to take advantage of matchups like this, like when they played the Falcons a few weeks ago, a team that had been crushed through the air by running backs, but Gordon and Lindsay combined for just one catch. Considering Gordon played double the snaps that Lindsay did, Gordon would be the preferred option, though he's nothing more than an RB3. Meanwhile, Lindsay finds himself in RB4 territory.
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105.
Cam Sims
WR - WAS (vs . CIN)
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106.
A.J. Green
WR - CIN (at WAS)
He's averaging a league-low 1.7 yards of separation at target this season, which is the lowest mark in the NFL. That number was at 2.5 in 2016, 2.4 in 2017, then 2.0 in 2018, so there's a clear trend here. There seemed to be a flash during Weeks 6 and 7 when he tallied 178 yards over those two games, but he's totaled just two catches for 19 yards on 10 targets over his last two games, knocking him off the fantasy radar. It's pretty crazy to think that Green is one of just 21 wide receivers who've seen five-plus targets in eight different games. We have to wait to see him produce for a few weeks before trusting him, especially when they're playing the defense who's allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to the wide receiver position.
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107.
Emmanuel Sanders
WR - NO (vs . ATL)
Despite Tre'Quan Smith missing a lot of the game, Smith played just 34-of-59 snaps against the 49ers. Don't forget he played just 22 snaps the prior week. It's tough to see Smith able to play in this game considering the hit he took, so we should prepare for a bigger role with Sanders this week. The Falcons are the perfect team for him to get more opportunities against, as they've allowed 16 different receivers to finish with 12-plus PPR points and finish as the WR37 or better. Sanders moves all over the formation, so he won't have one matchup in particular, but it's not like there's a matchup against the Falcons cornerback trio that isn't exploitable. Knowing the Falcons have allowed just 63.7 rushing yards per game to running backs, this should be a game the Saints go to the air, even if that is a bit risky with Winston under center. There have been just two games all season where Sanders has totaled more than five targets, so he's far from a lock for production, but he's a better WR4 bet than most this week.
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108.
Joshua Kelley
RB - LAC (vs . NYJ)
Over the last two weeks, we've seen Ballage make his mark on this backfield, racking up 137 yards and a touchdown on the ground, while chipping in seven catches for 49 yards through the air. Did I think it was possible that Ballage would be a top-12 running back over a two-week stretch in 2020? Nope, but he ranks as the No. 12 over the last two weeks. Don't expect Kelley to make a resurgence any time soon either, as he's averaging 0.66 fewer yards per carry than he's been expected to according to NFL's NextGenStats, which is the second-worst number in the league. Ballage gets his "revenge game" against the Jets this week, a run defense that's underrated by many. They've allowed just one 100-yard running back this season, and it was Melvin Gordon when he saw 23 carries on Thursday night football. In the same scheme last year, they allowed just one 100-yard rusher. To be fair, they've lost quite a few players, but it's not an easy matchup. According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric that factors in level of competition, the Jets are the 10th-best run defense in football. It's no coincidence that they've allowed the 12th-fewest PPR points per weighted opportunity to running backs. Running backs have averaged a rock-solid 29.2 touches per game against them, so we should be expecting another 15-plus touch game out of Ballage. Even if efficiency isn't great, he's in the low-end RB2 conversation this week. Kelley saw a season-low seven touches last week, moving him well into the RB4 territory as someone who's finished with more than 3.1 yards per carry just twice through nine games.
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109.
Le'Veon Bell
RB - KC (at LV)
The Chiefs have been having a real issue getting their ground game going, though it's hard to blame Edwards-Helaire, as he's averaged a rock-solid 4.65 yards per carry, which ranks No. 3 among running backs with 100-plus carries, behind only Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry. For whatever reason, he's been limited to 10 or less carries in four of the last five games. The Chiefs backfield as a whole has averaged just 24.0 touches per game, so lack of volume is a real problem. The Raiders have allowed a rushing touchdown once every 19.7 carries, so volume hasn't been necessary to post solid fantasy numbers against them. Running backs have also been targeted 23.5 percent of the time against the Raiders, which is the highest mark in the league. The bye week is generally when teams decide to make major fundamental changes to their attack moving forward, so it's possible that the Chiefs realize they need to get their ground game working a bit more. Clelin Ferrell has been the best run-stopping edge rusher the Raiders have and he's out for this game after testing positive for COVID. Back in their Week 5 game, Edwards-Helaire totaled 80 yards on just 13 touches, so if he gets more, he should produce like you expected him to when you drafted, but again, the lack of touches is problematic. Unless the Chiefs have changed their ways, he's stuck in middling RB2 territory in what's been a great matchup for running backs. The Chiefs could choose to go back to the way things were pre-Bell, as he's shown he's in the final stages of his career and doesn't have the appeal he once did. He's nothing more than a handcuff to Edwards-Helaire at this point, as he's totaled just 14 touches that netted 41 total yards over the last two games combined.
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110.
Jamaal Williams
RB - GB (at IND)
Williams saw enough work last week to finish just inside the top-30 at the RB position, but this is now a much more difficult matchup against the Colts. Williams is going to have to be heavily involved out of the backfield as a receiver to finish inside the top-30 again this week. He can be viewed as a mid-range RB3 that gets a slight bump in Full PPR formats.
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111.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
WR - GB (at IND)
MVS has come through with a couple of big games recently, but with Lazard returning to the lineup here, he can't be trusted as anything more than a boom-or-bust FLEX option.
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112.
Mark Ingram II
RB - BAL (vs . TEN)
Over a span of seven games, so not a single one of them has averaged nine touches per game. Opponents have chosen to run the ball against the Titans on just 39.0 percent of their plays, which ranks as the seventh-lowest percentage in the league. Because of that, running backs have combined for 26.8 touches per game. That's slightly better than the 22.6 these running backs are averaging in games they're all active, though almost all of them are carries. The Titans have allowed 4.41 yards per carry and eight rushing touchdowns, which are both around the league average. There have been seven running backs who've finished top-20 against the Titans, but they all have one thing in common: they all received at least 12 carries, which is something only Gus Edwards can say he's done with all three of them on the field, though the game he did was where Ingram had to leave early. None of these running backs can be recommended starts, including Dobbins who hasn't totaled more than seven touches when all three running backs play the whole game. He offers the most one-play upside, which is why he's the best play, but he's nothing more than a risky RB4. Ingram and Edwards are both low-floor, low-ceiling RB4/5 options.
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113.
Austin Hooper
TE - CLE (vs . PHI)
Hooper was in a great spot last week, but wasn't able to see enough volume to be fantasy relevant. This week, Hooper should be needed more and this is a great matchup for fantasy TEs. The Eagles are currently allowing an average of 9.5 fantasy points per game to the TE position, which is the 7th most in the league. Hooper can be plugged into your lineup this week as a low-end TE1.
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114.
Jordan Wilkins
RB - IND (vs . GB)
I can't tell you how many followers have asked me about what to do with this backfield, and it's tough to say that my guess is any better than theirs. Now explain to me if there are any trends you see, outside of the fact that Taylor has been slowly declining. Hines looked extremely good on Thursday night, but he's looked good before and hasn't received a lot of touches. Wilkins will likely lose touches after alligator-arming his goal-line target that easily could've gone for a pick-six. It stinks that we don't have a clear play here, as the Packers are a team to target with running backs. Running backs have averaged 0.21 more fantasy points per play against the Packers than they do on average. That's the highest mark in the NFL, though their opponents have struggled to rack up plays. When you look at the production they've allowed to skill-position players, running backs have accounted for 43.2 percent of it, the most in the NFL. By comparison, running backs account for just 24.9 percent of the production the Falcons give up goes to running backs. When comparing production allowed to running backs and wide receivers, the Packers have allowed just 2.0 more PPR points per game to wide receivers than running backs, which ranks as the second-smallest gap in the league. On average, NFL teams allow about 12.0 more PPR points per game to wide receivers than running backs. It's not just on the ground, either, as running backs have seen a massive 22.9 percent target share against them (4th in NFL). Despite the Packers facing just 28.0 touches per game to running backs (right around the league average), they've allowed the second-most PPR points per game to them. That's because they're allowing a rushing touchdown every 18.0 carries, which is more often than any other team in the league. They've also allowed a league-high 7.40 yards per target and 1.94 PPR points per target through the air to running backs. All in all, the Packers have allowed more fantasy points per opportunity to running backs than any team in the league. The problem is that we don't know who to trust in this backfield. If Taylor doesn't get it done here, he's droppable. I'm willing to take the risk and play him as an upside RB3. Hines falls into a similar space, whose floor should be higher than Taylor's, though as referenced in the chart above, he's hardly a guarantee for more than five touches. Wilkins should lose more touches and fall into RB4 territory.
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115.
Jared Cook
TE - NO (vs . ATL)
He's now seen fewer than five targets in five of his last six games, including a season-low two targets last week that netted exactly zero yards. It doesn't feel good to place him in your lineup, though that's a feeling that we're getting with a lot of tight ends this year. If you're looking for a bright spot with Cook, it's his matchup this week. Tight ends have averaged 5.6 more half-PPR points per game against the Falcons than they have on average, which is quite massive, as no other team has allowed more than 3.4 fantasy points above average. You can also look at Football Outsiders' DVOA metric that ranks defenses based on the competition they've played, and you'll see they rank as the No. 31 defense against tight ends, so it doesn't even matter what metric you want to use; the Falcons are bad at defending tight ends. We know the Falcons allow tons of fantasy points per game to opponents, which is great, but it's even better when we see they've allowed 21.6 percent of the production to skill-position players go to tight ends, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league. The 83.3 percent completion-rate is the highest in the league, so there's no downside if Cook actually gets targeted. Maybe the move to Winston will get him targeted more? The matchup is so good, you may want to take that chance as a low-end TE1.
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116.
Randall Cobb
WR - HOU (vs . NE)
He's now seen in-between 3-6 targets in 8-of-9 games this year, which isn't great considering he doesn't have that one-play upside you want out of low volume wide receivers. It's also why he has finished with 47 yards or less in 6-of-9 games. That's a problem when going against a team who's seen just 16.7 wide receiver targets per game (second-fewest in the NFL). Because of that, the Patriots have allowed just 11.0 receptions per game to them. When you're the third-best option among wide receviers, it's going to be tough to trust Cobb. With that being said, Jonathan Jones, the Patriots slot cornerback, has allowed 25/296/2 on 39 targets, which is good for a 93.5 QB Rating in coverage. Cobb should be placed in the WR5 conversation as someone who is just too far down on the pecking order in what's expected to be a low-volume matchup.
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117.
Nelson Agholor
WR - LV (vs . KC)
Despite the fact that he's been among the most efficient receivers in the league this year, the Raiders have targeted Agholor more than four times just once all season. He's totaled at least 44 yards and a touchdown in four of the last six games despite Greg Olson's best efforts to keep him excluded from a big role in the gameplan. As mentioned in the Ruggs notes, the Chiefs defense has allowed a league-low 127.6 yards per game to wide receivers since the start of last season. It's both a volume and efficiency problem, as they've allowed just 7.40 yards per target (third-fewest in the NFL) and have faced just 168 targets (eighth-fewest). Agholor and Ruggs were the only receivers who've seen fewer than seven targets and finished as top-36 receivers against them. I'm not one to tempt the odds again, leaving Agholor in the WR5 conversation.
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118.
Jakeem Grant
WR - MIA (at DEN)
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119.
Jonnu Smith
TE - TEN (at BAL)
Would you believe me if I told you that Week 10 was the first since Week 5 where Smith saw more than four targets? It's no coincidence that he hasn't caught more than two balls since Week 5, either. It seems that his increased usage earlier in the season was due to A.J. Brown being out of the lineup, as his return has buried Smith down the pecking order. He hasn't topped 40 yards since way back in Week 3, which puts him back in the touchdown-or-bust territory with many other tight ends. The Ravens have allowed just four touchdowns to tight ends on the season, but if there's one position the Ravens are average against, it's tight ends. They've allowed a 67.2 percent catch-rate (14th), 7.33 yards per target (14th), a touchdown every 16.0 targets (15th), and 1.78 PPR points per target (16th). See what I mean about average? Smith falls into the high-end TE2 range as someone who's flashed at times but is no longer a must-start.
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120.
David Moore
WR - SEA (vs . ARI)
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121.
Tony Pollard
RB - DAL (at MIN)
Over the last four games, Elliott looks like a shell of his former self. It's not all his fault, of course, as he's lost his starting quarterback and starting left tackle on the offensive line. In those four games, he's combined for 208 yards on 61 carries (3.41 yards per carry) and 12 receptions for 65 yards. He hasn't scored in that time, either, leaving him as the RB31 over that span, behind guys like Jerick McKinnon and J.D. McKissic. To be fair, his last two games were among the worst you can have as a running back against the Eagles and Steelers, but he's no longer the must-start RB1 you drafted. If you're looking for touchdowns against the Vikings, you might not find them. On the year, they're tied for the league's lowest touchdown output to running backs (5). While their pass defense has been bad, they've been a stout unit up front from an efficiency standpoint, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per weighted opportunity. The two running backs who were able to total more than 75 yards on the ground were Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor, who both totaled 26 carries. As a whole, they've allowed 135.2 total yards per game to running backs, which isn't great when you see that Pollard has been getting 35 percent of the touches over the last four weeks (and has been more efficient). That may've had something to do with Elliott's hamstring, but it brings on some additional risk. Elliott should be considered a middling RB2 who needs to find his way into the end zone, but I'm one who believes the bye week came at the perfect time for him. Pollard has at least eight touches in each of the last five games, so he can be played as an RB4 in a pinch, though it is a tough matchup.
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122.
Allen Lazard
WR - GB (at IND)
Lazard appears to be set to return to the lineup this weekend. If he has Davante Adams on the field with him, Lazard should have enough room to run to be viewed as a solid FLEX play his first week back. However, if Adams sits, the Colts defense is simply going to be able to double team Lazard and force Rodgers to beat them elsewhere. If that's the case, Lazard could see enough volume to be a safe FLEX play, but there's going to be very little upside.
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123.
Marvin Hall
WR - DET (at CAR)
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124.
Zach Pascal
WR - IND (vs . GB)
He's averaged 6.0 targets per game over the last four weeks, which is enough to get a player into the fantasy conversation, though he's still failed to top 58 yards the entire season, so when you take the risk of playing him, you're not getting a great ceiling. After starting out the year playing well, Chandon Sullivan has started to slip a bit while covering the slot. Over the last three weeks, he's allowed 9-of-15 passing for 126 yards and a touchdown in his coverage, but that's not enough to the point where we saw Pascal is a must-play, especially considering Pittman seems to be emerging as a favorite. The Packers have faced just 18.9 wide receiver targets per game, so it's tough to confidently recommend anyone to produce a solid floor this week, and as we've discussed, Pascal doesn't have much of a ceiling.
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125.
Logan Thomas
TE - WAS (vs . CIN)
Thomas hasn't exactly presented much upside here in recent weeks, but if you're looking for a streaming option at the TE position this week, Thomas should be your guy. The Bengals are allowing the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing TEs this season and Thomas has an excellent chance of finding the end zone here.
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126.
Mike Gesicki
TE - MIA (at DEN)
In the three games with Tagovailoa under center, Gesicki has seen just 11 targets, caught six passes, and totaled 90 scoreless yards. That's not going to get anyone excited, especially when we know that target share isn't the problem. Gesicki actually has a decent 17 percent target share over the last two weeks, but the lack of pass attempts drags everyone down. The Broncos have allowed the 12th-fewest points per game to tight ends, but they have allowed the 10th-most receptions, which highlights a lack of touchdowns. When you see they've allowed just two of them on 61 targets, you know why they're a matchup that's "in the red." Still, it's not great to hear that tight ends average 13.2 percent fewer fantasy points against the Broncos than they do on average, which is the eighth-worst number in the league. Eight different tight ends have finished in-between 31-49 yards against them, with just one tight end topping that (Hayden Hurst, 62 yards). This seems like another game where Gesicki could net 30-50 yards, and knowing the Broncos haven't been susceptible to touchdowns, he's nothing more than a low-ceiling TE2.
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127.
Devontae Booker
RB - LV (vs . KC)
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128.
Hunter Renfrow
WR - LV (vs . KC)
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129.
Larry Fitzgerald
WR - ARI (at SEA)
I typically don't even write any notes on Fitzgerald, who's not a fantasy option most weeks, but against the Seahawks, you should consider him if you have bye week issues. Receivers have combined to average a ridiculous 57.2 PPR points per game against the Seahawks, which is more than 10 points per game than the closest team. It certainly helps that receivers have seen a ridiculously-high 66.7 percent target share against them, which is also a league-high. They've allowed a massive 515.8 PPR points to wide receivers this year, while no other team has allowed more than 405.6 points to them. There have been 25 wide receivers who've finished top-50 against the Seahawks this year, including 20 of them who were top-36. That's through nine games. The last time he played against them, he caught all eight of his targets for 62 yards. Fitzgerald isn't sexy, but as a WR4 during a week with four teams on bye? Sure.
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130.
Dalton Schultz
TE - DAL (at MIN)
Schultz hasn't been utilized much here recently, but he's certainly in the streaming conversation with this matchup. Schultz can be viewed as a mid-range TE2.
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131.
Robert Tonyan
TE - GB (at IND)
Tonyan should only be looked at if Adams misses this contest. In a tough matchup, it's hard to see a path for Tonyan to finish anywhere close to the top-12 TEs after what we've seen recently.
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132.
Cam Akers
RB - LAR (at TB)
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133.
Chris Conley
WR - JAC (vs . PIT)
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134.
Willie Snead IV
WR - BAL (vs . TEN)
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135.
James White
RB - NE (at HOU)
You have to wonder if White is dealing with an injury, as he's been completely eliminated from the offense, totaling just 13 touches over the last four games combined. He cannot be trusted as anything more than an emergency RB4 who has a great matchup.
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136.
Tyler Higbee
TE - LAR (at TB)
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137.
DeeJay Dallas
RB - SEA (vs . ARI)
Dallas will still be involved in this offense with Travis Homer and Carson both out, but he's going to be relegated to the pass-catching role with Hyde in the lineup. Dallas is a decent RB3 option in Full PPR formats, but he's a risky play if you're expecting anything more than that.
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138.
Trey Burton
TE - IND (vs . GB)
We knew they'd both have a bigger role with Jack Doyle out of the lineup, but I don't know if anyone expected Alie-Cox to run more routes (24 to 19). They each saw three targets, which is hardly enough to feel confident about them, especially going into a matchup with the Packers, a team who's seen minimal targets to the tight end position. Tight ends have accounted for a league-low 10.9 percent of the fantasy production allowed by the Packers, which stems from the fact that they've had just a 14.1 percent target share, which is the second-lowest number in the league. That's also led to them allowing just 29 receptions to tight ends this season. That's just 3.2 receptions per game. Not great when you're dealing with a timeshare, eh? If we were guaranteed more volume, it wouldn't be so bad, as the Packers are allowing a 72.3 percent catch-rate to the position and 9.23 yards per target (ranks as third-most), but we can't, which makes this duo hard to suggest for streamers. In fact, it's tough to say which I'd choose if forced to pick one. My guess is that Jack Doyle's absence is the reason for Alie-Cox's increased workload, so if Doyle remains out, he'd be my choice.
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139.
Demarcus Robinson
WR - KC (at LV)
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140.
Alexander Mattison
RB - MIN (vs . DAL)
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141.
Matt Breida
RB - MIA (at DEN)
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142.
Frank Gore
RB - NYJ (at LAC)
For those who were hoping that Perine would eventually get to showcase his ability, it seems Adam Gase doesn't want to make that happen. Since cutting Le'Veon Bell, the touch count has been Gore 50, Perine 40. We're seeing a lot more of Gore with early-down work (he's outproducing Perine there) while Perine is getting slightly more passing-down usage. When you see this sort of timeshare in a backfield that averages just 23.0 touches per game, it's a problem. The Chargers have seen just 25.8 running back touches per game, which is one of the lower marks in the league, which again, is not good for a timeshare. Gore has now gone 230 carries without a single touchdown, which dates back to Week 3 of last year. Add in his 3.57 yards per carry he's averaging, and it really doesn't matter that the Chargers are allowing 4.87 yards per carry. They've tightened up in the red zone, too, allowing just five rushing touchdowns (seventh-fewest) on 178 carries. Production through the air against them has been minimal, as they've allowed just 4.59 yards per target, which is the third-lowest mark in the league. There was a report that came out on Wednesday where Adam Gase said Perine would "get more work moving forward" but also went on to say that Gore will still be involved. I suppose we should expect Perine to lead the timeshare, but even then, he's stuck in the low-end RB3/high-end RB4 territory, as this duo has averaged just 22.5 touches per game over the last four games.
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143.
Mo Alie-Cox
TE - IND (vs . GB)
We knew they'd both have a bigger role with Jack Doyle out of the lineup, but I don't know if anyone expected Alie-Cox to run more routes (24 to 19). They each saw three targets, which is hardly enough to feel confident about them, especially going into a matchup with the Packers, a team who's seen minimal targets to the tight end position. Tight ends have accounted for a league-low 10.9 percent of the fantasy production allowed by the Packers, which stems from the fact that they've had just a 14.1 percent target share, which is the second-lowest number in the league. That's also led to them allowing just 29 receptions to tight ends this season. That's just 3.2 receptions per game. Not great when you're dealing with a timeshare, eh? If we were guaranteed more volume, it wouldn't be so bad, as the Packers are allowing a 72.3 percent catch-rate to the position and 9.23 yards per target (ranks as third-most), but we can't, which makes this duo hard to suggest for streamers. In fact, it's tough to say which I'd choose if forced to pick one. My guess is that Jack Doyle's absence is the reason for Alie-Cox's increased workload, so if Doyle remains out, he'd be my choice.
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144.
Kyle Rudolph
TE - MIN (vs . DAL)
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145.
Steven Sims
WR - WAS (vs . CIN)
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146.
D'Onta Foreman
RB - TEN (at BAL)
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147.
Russell Gage
WR - ATL (at NO)
Ever since his first two weeks where he racked up 15 catches for 160 yards and a touchdown, Gage has failed to record more than two receptions in five of his next seven games, and has failed to top 65 yards in any game. The Saints have Chauncey Gardner-Johnson covering the slot, and he's done a much better job than expected when you see the Saints overall numbers allowed to receivers this year. He has allowed 37 receptions for just 309 yards and one touchdown on 46 targets in coverage. The catch-rate is high, sure, but just 8.35 yards per reception? That's not going to be enough to start Gage with any upside, and we haven't seen a floor as of late, so feel free to find another streamer.
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148.
Gerald Everett
TE - LAR (at TB)
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149.
Jalen Guyton
WR - LAC (vs . NYJ)
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150.
Damiere Byrd
WR - NE (at HOU)
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151.
Brian Hill
RB - ATL (at NO)
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152.
Samaje Perine
RB - CIN (at WAS)
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153.
Boston Scott
RB - PHI (at CLE)
Some people are going to see the fantasy points that Scott put up in week ten and look to plug him into their starting lineups in week 11. However, that's not exactly the best idea. Scott only saw four total touches in this past game. While he made the most of his opportunity, that's not a workload that you can comfortably rely on for fantasy purposes. Scott can be viewed as a high-end RB4 this week.
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154.
Devin Duvernay
WR - BAL (vs . TEN)
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155.
Dan Arnold
TE - ARI (at SEA)
He tied a season-high for any Cardinals tight end last week... with four. Even if Darren Waller or Travis Kelce were to see four targets, we couldn't confidently recommend them as a TE1, so we're sure as heck not going to do it with Arnold, and that's his ceiling. The Seahawks have also been one of the toughest matchups for tight ends, allowing a league-low 10.9 percent of fantasy production to skill-position players to them. Feel free to pass on Cardinals tight ends.
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156.
Greg Ward
WR - PHI (at CLE)
Ward continues to be utilized in this offense out of the slot and he's bringing a safe floor in Full PPR formats. While he's nothing more than a low-end FLEX play, if you need a safe floor, Ward should continue to see enough work to be a steady option for your lineup.
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157.
Richard Rodgers
TE - PHI (at CLE)
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158.
Alshon Jeffery
WR - PHI (at CLE)
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159.
Jordan Akins
TE - HOU (vs . NE)
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160.
Anthony Firkser
TE - TEN (at BAL)
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161.
Andy Isabella
WR - ARI (at SEA)
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162.
James Washington
WR - PIT (at JAC)
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163.
Tyler Eifert
TE - JAC (vs . PIT)
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164.
Benny Snell Jr.
RB - PIT (at JAC)
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165.
Jeremy McNichols
RB - TEN (at BAL)
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166.
Tre'Quan Smith
WR - NO (vs . ATL)
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167.
Olamide Zaccheaus
WR - ATL (at NO)
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168.
Darren Fells
TE - HOU (vs . NE)
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169.
Drew Sample
TE - CIN (at WAS)
I mentioned last week that Sample was far off the radar against the tough Steelers defense, but I also mentioned that Sample has done well in three games. Those games were against the Browns (twice) and Jaguars, two teams that ranks as bottom-10 teams at stopping tight ends. The matchup this week is against Washington, who ranks as the No. 31 ranked defense against tight ends in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric that factors in level of competition. Despite T.J. Hockenson's poor performance last week, 22.7 percent of the production that Washington has allowed to skill-position players has gone to tight ends, which is the highest mark in football. It surely helps that teams have targeted their tight ends a league-high 25.5 percent of the time, but there's likely a reason for that. There have been five different tight ends who've finished with 10.3-plus PPR points against them, and two of them did that with less than five targets. Sample is nothing more than a hail-mary TE2 but if you're desperate, the matchup is about as good as it gets.
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170.
Irv Smith Jr.
TE - MIN (vs . DAL)
Smith appears to be trending towards coming back into the lineup this week and this is a matchup that fantasy managers would love to plug him into their lineups in. However, Smith is not seeing enough targets in this offense to be viewed as a reliable option each week. He can be viewed as a touchdown-dependent TE2 this week.
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171.
Quintez Cephus
WR - DET (at CAR)
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172.
N'Keal Harry
WR - NE (at HOU)
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173.
Jacob Hollister
TE - SEA (vs . ARI)
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174.
Ian Thomas
TE - CAR (vs . DET)
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175.
Scotty Miller
WR - TB (vs . LAR)
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176.
DaeSean Hamilton
WR - DEN (vs . MIA)
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177.
Auden Tate
WR - CIN (at WAS)
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178.
Isaiah Wright
WR - WAS (vs . CIN)
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179.
Troymaine Pope
RB - LAC (vs . NYJ)
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180.
Cameron Brate
TE - TB (vs . LAR)
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181.
Anthony McFarland Jr.
RB - PIT (at JAC)
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182.
Harrison Bryant
TE - CLE (vs . PHI)
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183.
Chris Herndon IV
TE - NYJ (at LAC)
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184.
KhaDarel Hodge
WR - CLE (vs . PHI)
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185.
Deonte Harris
WR - NO (vs . ATL)
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186.
C.J. Prosise
RB - HOU (vs . NE)
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187.
Chad Beebe
WR - MIN (vs . DAL)
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188.
Freddie Swain
WR - SEA (vs . ARI)
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189.
Kalif Raymond
WR - TEN (at BAL)
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190.
Rodney Smith
RB - CAR (vs . DET)
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191.
Marcus Johnson
WR - IND (vs . GB)
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192.
Bryan Edwards
WR - LV (vs . KC)
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193.
Kenny Stills
WR - HOU (vs . NE)
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194.
Miles Boykin
WR - BAL (vs . TEN)
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195.
Dare Ogunbowale
RB - JAC (vs . PIT)
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196.
Mack Hollins
WR - MIA (at DEN)
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197.
Malcolm Perry
RB,WR - MIA (at DEN)
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198.
Peyton Barber
RB - WAS (vs . CIN)
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199.
Patrick Laird
RB - MIA (at DEN)
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200.
Jalen Richard
RB - LV (vs . KC)
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201.
Donovan Peoples-Jones
WR - CLE (vs . PHI)
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202.
Will Dissly
TE - SEA (vs . ARI)
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203.
Jack Doyle
TE - IND (vs . GB)
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204.
Royce Freeman
RB - DEN (vs . MIA)
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205.
Trayveon Williams
RB - CIN (at WAS)
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206.
Dez Bryant
WR - BAL (vs . TEN)
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207.
Trenton Cannon
RB - CAR (vs . DET)
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208.
Darrel Williams
RB - KC (at LV)
|
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209.
Braxton Berrios
WR - NYJ (at LAC)
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210.
Bo Scarbrough
RB - SEA (vs . ARI)
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211.
Ty Johnson
RB - NYJ (at LAC)
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|
212.
Alex Collins
RB - SEA (vs . ARI)
|
|
213.
Collin Johnson
WR - JAC (vs . PIT)
|
|
214.
Buddy Howell
RB - HOU (vs . NE)
|
|
215.
Donald Parham Jr.
TE - LAC (vs . NYJ)
|
|
216.
Ray-Ray McCloud
WR - PIT (at JAC)
|
|
217.
Justice Hill
RB - BAL (vs . TEN)
|
|
218.
Cam Batson
WR - TEN (at BAL)
|
|
219.
Alec Ingold
RB - LV (vs . KC)
|
|
220.
Byron Pringle
WR - KC (at LV)
|
|
221.
Jakob Johnson
RB,TE - NE (at HOU)
|
|
222.
Durham Smythe
TE - MIA (at DEN)
|
|
223.
Alex Armah
RB - CAR (vs . DET)
|
|
224.
David Njoku
TE - CLE (vs . PHI)
|
|
225.
Corey Clement
RB - PHI (at CLE)
|
|
226.
Cedrick Wilson
WR - DAL (at MIN)
|
|
227.
Jesse James
TE - DET (at CAR)
|
|
228.
LeSean McCoy
RB - TB (vs . LAR)
|
|
229.
Jason Witten
TE - LV (vs . KC)
|
|
230.
Adam Shaheen
TE - MIA (at DEN)
|
|
231.
Tyron Johnson
WR - LAC (vs . NYJ)
|
|
232.
Ryan Griffin
TE - NYJ (at LAC)
|
|
233.
Ryan Izzo
TE - NE (at HOU)
|
|
234.
Marquez Callaway
WR - NO (vs . ATL)
|
|
235.
Jace Sternberger
TE - GB (at IND)
|
|
236.
Pharaoh Brown
TE - HOU (vs . NE)
|
|
237.
Adam Trautman
TE - NO (vs . ATL)
|
|
238.
Ameer Abdullah
RB - MIN (vs . DAL)
|
|
239.
Jonathan Williams
RB - DET (at CAR)
|
|
240.
DeMichael Harris
WR - IND (vs . GB)
|
|
241.
Foster Moreau
TE - LV (vs . KC)
|
|
242.
Antonio Callaway
WR - MIA (at DEN)
|
|
243.
Patrick Ricard
RB,DT - BAL (vs . TEN)
|
|
244.
Ito Smith
RB - ATL (at NO)
|
|
245.
Mohamed Sanu
WR - DET (at CAR)
|
|
246.
D.J. Foster
RB - ARI (at SEA)
|
|
247.
Brandon Zylstra
WR - CAR (vs . DET)
|
|
248.
AJ Dillon
RB - GB (at IND)
|
|
249.
C.J. Ham
RB - MIN (vs . DAL)
|
|
250.
Van Jefferson
WR - LAR (at TB)
|
|
251.
Michael Burton
RB - NO (vs . ATL)
|
|
252.
Devine Ozigbo
RB - JAC (vs . PIT)
|
|
253.
D'Ernest Johnson
RB - CLE (vs . PHI)
|
|
254.
Nick Keizer
TE - KC (at LV)
|
|
255.
Marcedes Lewis
TE - GB (at IND)
|
|
256.
Christian Blake
WR - ATL (at NO)
|
|
257.
Maxx Williams
TE - ARI (at SEA)
|
|
258.
Tyler Conklin
TE - MIN (vs . DAL)
|
|
259.
Chris Manhertz
TE - CAR (vs . DET)
|
|
260.
Nick Vannett
TE - DEN (vs . MIA)
|
|
261.
Blake Bell
TE - DAL (at MIN)
|
|
262.
Troy Fumagalli
TE - DEN (vs . MIA)
|
|
263.
Jeff Smith
WR - NYJ (at LAC)
|
|
|
264.
Kirk Merritt
WR - MIA (at DEN)
|
|
265.
Keith Smith
RB - ATL (at NO)
|
|
266.
Malik Taylor
WR - GB (at IND)
|
|
267.
Colin Thompson
TE - CAR (vs . DET)
|
|
268.
Isaiah Ford
WR - NE (at HOU)
|
|
269.
Tyler Johnson
WR - TB (vs . LAR)
|
|
270.
Khari Blasingame
RB - TEN (at BAL)
|
|
271.
Mike Thomas
WR - CIN (at WAS)
|
|
272.
Ben Ellefson
TE - JAC (vs . PIT)
|
|
273.
Cethan Carter
TE,RB - CIN (at WAS)
|
|
274.
Jeremy Sprinkle
TE - WAS (vs . CIN)
|
|
275.
Luke Stocker
TE - ATL (at NO)
|
|
276.
Geoff Swaim
TE - TEN (at BAL)
|
|
|
277.
Isaiah Zuber
WR - NE (at HOU)
|
|
278.
Gabe Nabers
RB - LAC (vs . NYJ)
|
|
279.
Zay Jones
WR - LV (vs . KC)
|
|
280.
Olabisi Johnson
WR - MIN (vs . DAL)
|
|
281.
Deon Yelder
TE - KC (at LV)
|
|
282.
Isaac Nauta
TE,RB - DET (at CAR)
|
|
283.
Jordan Thomas
TE - NE (at HOU)
|
|
284.
Noah Brown
WR - DAL (at MIN)
|
|
285.
Gunner Olszewski
WR - NE (at HOU)
|
|
286.
Joe Reed
WR - LAC (vs . NYJ)
|
|
287.
Temarrick Hemingway
TE - WAS (vs . CIN)
|
|
288.
John Hightower
WR - PHI (at CLE)
|
|
289.
Luke Willson
TE - BAL (vs . TEN)
|
|
290.
Pharoh Cooper
WR - CAR (vs . DET)
|
|
291.
Zach Gentry
TE - PIT (at JAC)
|
|
292.
Terry Godwin
WR - JAC (vs . PIT)
|
|
293.
Rico Dowdle
RB - DAL (at MIN)
|
|
294.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
WR - TEN (at BAL)
|
|
295.
Johnny Mundt
TE - LAR (at TB)
|
|
296.
Equanimeous St. Brown
WR - GB (at IND)
|
|
297.
Mike Boone
RB - MIN (vs . DAL)
|
|
298.
Darrius Shepherd
WR - GB (at IND)
|
|
299.
Brandon Powell
WR - ATL (at NO)
|
|
300.
Vance McDonald
TE - PIT (at JAC)
|
|
301.
Qadree Ollison
RB - ATL (at NO)
|
|
302.
Elijah Holyfield
RB - PHI (at CLE)
|
|
303.
Mason Schreck
TE - CIN (at WAS)
|
|
304.
Lynn Bowden Jr.
WR,RB - MIA (at DEN)
|
|
305.
Tyler Davis
TE - JAC (vs . PIT)
|
|
306.
Garrett Griffin
TE - NO (vs . ATL)
|
|
307.
Stephen Anderson
TE - LAC (vs . NYJ)
|
|
308.
Jaeden Graham
TE - ATL (at NO)
|
|
309.
K.J. Hill
WR - LAC (vs . NYJ)
|
|
310.
Anthony Sherman
RB - KC (at LV)
|
|
311.
Donte Moncrief
WR - NE (at HOU)
|
|
312.
Trent Sherfield
WR - ARI (at SEA)
|
|
313.
Scottie Phillips
RB - HOU (vs . NE)
|
|
314.
Sean McKeon
TE - DAL (at MIN)
|
|
315.
Antony Auclair
TE - TB (vs . LAR)
|
|
316.
Chris Myarick
TE - MIA (at DEN)
|
|
317.
Sean Culkin
TE - BAL (vs . TEN)
|
|
318.
Eric Saubert
TE - JAC (vs . PIT)
|
|
319.
Cody Hollister
WR - TEN (at BAL)
|
|
320.
Senorise Perry
RB - TEN (at BAL)
|
|
321.
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
WR - PHI (at CLE)
|
|
322.
Ty Montgomery
RB - NO (vs . ATL)
|
|
323.
Ricky Seals-Jones
TE - KC (at LV)
|
|
324.
Alex Erickson
WR - CIN (at WAS)
|
|
325.
James Proche
WR - BAL (vs . TEN)
|
|
326.
Johnny Stanton
RB - CLE (vs . PHI)
|
|
327.
Diontae Spencer
WR - DEN (vs . MIA)
|
|
328.
Evan Baylis
TE - FA (BYE)
|
|
329.
Daurice Fountain
WR - IND (vs . GB)
|
|
330.
Trevon Wesco
TE - NYJ (at LAC)
|
|
331.
Noah Togiai
TE - IND (vs . GB)
|
|
332.
Darrynton Evans
RB - TEN (at BAL)
|
|
333.
DeAndre Carter
WR - CHI (BYE)
|
|
334.
Jeremy Cox
RB - DEN (vs . MIA)
|
|
335.
Marcus Kemp
WR - KC (at LV)
|
|
336.
Antonio Gandy-Golden
WR - WAS (vs . CIN)
|
|
337.
Andy Janovich
RB - CLE (vs . PHI)
|
|
338.
Justin Watson
WR - TB (vs . LAR)
|
|
339.
Mike Weber
RB - GB (at IND)
|
|
340.
Xavier Grimble
TE - BAL (vs . TEN)
|
|
341.
Jordan Leggett
TE - DEN (vs . MIA)
|
|
342.
Derek Watt
RB - PIT (at JAC)
|
|
343.
Juwann Winfree
WR - GB (at IND)
|
|
344.
Cole Hikutini
TE - DAL (at MIN)
|
|
345.
Vyncint Smith
WR - NYJ (at LAC)
|
|
|
346.
Brad Cottam
TE - KC (at LV)
|
|
347.
Jason Croom
TE - PHI (at CLE)
|
|
348.
Penny Hart
WR - SEA (vs . ARI)
|
|
349.
Fred Brown
WR - DEN (vs . MIA)
|
|
350.
Derek Carrier
TE - LV (vs . KC)
|
|
351.
Hakeem Butler
WR,TE - PHI (at CLE)
|
|
352.
Cyril Grayson Jr.
WR - TB (vs . LAR)
|
|
353.
Marcus Baugh
TE - WAS (vs . CIN)
|
|
354.
Stanley Morgan Jr.
WR - CIN (at WAS)
|
|
355.
Keke Coutee
WR - HOU (vs . NE)
|
|
356.
Austin Carr
WR - NO (vs . ATL)
|
|
357.
Tommylee Lewis
WR - NO (vs . ATL)
|
|
358.
Keith Kirkwood
WR - CAR (vs . DET)
|
