Fantasy Football Player Notes

He saw a season-high 10 targets last week, which is a welcomed sight considering Brady appears to be favoring Evans and Brown quite a bit. The Bucs should continue to involve Godwin more and more, as he's caught 80.4 percent of his targets and can play as the underneath receiver with the way Jones/Fournette have struggled in the passing game. The Chiefs have used a combination of Tyrann Mathieu and Rashad Fenton to cover the slot, which isn't a bad thing for Godwin. They've combined to allow 28-of-44 passing for 389 yards and a touchdown in their coverage. The Chiefs have allowed 11 wide receivers to finish as the WR38 or better and four of them have been slot-heavy wide receivers. Over the last three weeks, they've allowed the combination of Hunter Renfrow, Curtis Samuel, and Braxton Berrios combine for 19 receptions, 176 yards, and a touchdown. Godwin is someone who should be the safest and least touchdown-dependent of the Bucs wide receivers, so consider him a relatively safe low-end WR2.

His targets may not be what they've been in the past, but he leads all players with 13 targets inside the 10-yard-line. It has felt like Brady is pushing the ball his way a bit more over the last few weeks, though that could be from the elevated volume, as his 20.0 percent target share over the last four games is nothing crazy. Evans still hasn't topped 77 yards since way back in Week 4, though touchdowns have carried him through, as he's scored in 8-of-11 games this year. The Chiefs have allowed just eight touchdowns on the season, which ranks as the fifth-fewest in the NFL. Everyone seems to be amazed when I tell them the Chiefs are one of the best in the league against wide receivers, as they expect tons of targets. That hasn't been the case, as they've seen just 18.3 targets per game to the position, which means there are just three teams who've seen less. While volume has been an issue, so has efficiency, as receivers have averaged just 7.61 yards per target (5th-lowest) and a touchdown every 22.9 targets (10th-least often). Through 10 games, the Chiefs have allowed just 10 top-36 wide receivers. The matchup is easier than last week against the Rams, so if you want to see the positives, there you go. Evans' touchdown prowess keeps him in the low-end WR2 range.

I'm surprised the Bucs didn't just flat-out cut Fournette mid-game last week, as he dropped three easy passes from Brady. The only reason he was in there was due to Jones dropping his first target. Pass-catching has clearly been a problem for these two, but the Bucs really don't have any other options. Jones has now finished with 13 or less carries and 34 or less yards in four of his last five games, though he's still averaging a robust 4.93 yards per carry. The Bucs should be riding him a bit more, especially in a matchup like this against the Chiefs. They struggle to stop the run and it's nothing new. Over the last two years in this 4-3 scheme, they've allowed 2,784 yards on 592 carries (4.70 yards per carry) with 16 touchdowns on the ground. They've struggled through the air, too. That's evidenced by the 6.60 yards per target they've allowed to running backs, which ranks fourth-highest in the league. The problem all comes back to the Bucs needing to establish some sort of run game, unless they want to go toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes, which doesn't seem all that smart. After Fournette's disaster last week, I'd suspect Jones gets a decent run in this game, and considering there's 56-point total, he's in the high-end RB3 conversation who has more upside than most in that range, though you know his floor. Fournette is hard to recommend, even in a game there should be plenty of passing, as he likely lost a lot of trust last week. He falls into low-end RB3/high-end RB4 territory because there is a lot of potential in this matchup, making him hard to completely avoid. I'd pay attention to which running backs are active because we could see LeSean McCoy or Ke'Shawn Vaughn make an appearance.

Brown has now seen 2.4 air yards per snap, which ranks as the third-highest in the NFL among receivers with 25-plus targets. Brady is clearly trying to get the ball to him, as evidenced by his 21 targets over the last two weeks. Brown has looked decent on them, though he's lacking that elite separation he used to get. It was a tough matchup last week, though this week isn't going to be much easier. He plays almost all his snaps on the perimeter, which means he'll see a mix of Bashaud Breeland and Charvarius Ward in coverage. Both cornerbacks have allowed less than 1.72 PPR points per target in their coverage, though we did see Breeland slip a bit last week, allowing 4-of-4 passing for 55 yards and a touchdown to the Raiders' wide receivers. While Brown's talent can rise above the competition, the issue is that you can't expect all the Bucs receivers to post top-30 numbers, especially considering the Chiefs have allowed just nine wide receivers to do that all year. Knowing that Brown plays on the perimeter the most, he's the one who'll have the hardest time. Because of that, he's in the low-end WR3 territory, though Brady clearly wants him to be "the guy."

I'm surprised the Bucs didn't just flat-out cut Fournette mid-game last week, as he dropped three easy passes from Brady. The only reason he was in there was due to Jones dropping his first target. Pass-catching has clearly been a problem for these two, but the Bucs really don't have any other options. Jones has now finished with 13 or less carries and 34 or less yards in four of his last five games, though he's still averaging a robust 4.93 yards per carry. The Bucs should be riding him a bit more, especially in a matchup like this against the Chiefs. They struggle to stop the run and it's nothing new. Over the last two years in this 4-3 scheme, they've allowed 2,784 yards on 592 carries (4.70 yards per carry) with 16 touchdowns on the ground. They've struggled through the air, too. That's evidenced by the 6.60 yards per target they've allowed to running backs, which ranks fourth-highest in the league. The problem all comes back to the Bucs needing to establish some sort of run game, unless they want to go toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes, which doesn't seem all that smart. After Fournette's disaster last week, I'd suspect Jones gets a decent run in this game, and considering there's 56-point total, he's in the high-end RB3 conversation who has more upside than most in that range, though you know his floor. Fournette is hard to recommend, even in a game there should be plenty of passing, as he likely lost a lot of trust last week. He falls into low-end RB3/high-end RB4 territory because there is a lot of potential in this matchup, making him hard to completely avoid. I'd pay attention to which running backs are active because we could see LeSean McCoy or Ke'Shawn Vaughn make an appearance.

It appears we've lost some of the luster to Gronkowski with all three wide receivers healthy, as he's totaled just 19 targets over the last four games. He's caught just five passes over the last three games, which is certainly now what we want out of our tight end. Will the trend change against the Chiefs? They've allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this year, but it's not as bad as you might think, as tight ends have averaged 3.7 percent more fantasy points against the Chiefs than they have in non-Chiefs matchups. That makes them the 14th-best matchup for tight ends when you adjust for level of competition. There have been five tight ends who've finished as the TE13 or better against them, including six tight ends who've totaled 38-plus yards. They've also allowed a touchdown every 13.0 targets to tight ends, so maybe we see Gronk find his way back into the end zone in this projected high-scoring affair? He should be considered a low-end TE1 with his recent lack of production, though the 56-point total is appealing.