Fantasy Football Player Notes

The reports have been good on the chemistry between Diggs and Josh Allen, but when training camp comes around, almost all reports are. The connection they need is the deep ball, as Diggs led the league in deep ball yards last year (635 of his 1.130 yards came on passes that traveled over 20 yards), and all six of his touchdowns were on such passes. So, when you see that Allen completed just 18-of-68 passes that traveled over 20 yards, we have an issue. Fortunately, Allen should have a lot of separation this week, as Diggs can dominate any of Pierre Desir, Blessuan Austin, or Brian Poole. Not only has Desir been a hit-or-miss cornerback, but he's also dealt with a hamstring injury throughout training camp. Poole is ideally a slot cornerback, while Austin is a depth chart cornerback, at best. It's going to be harder for Diggs to have the explosion-type weeks he did with Kirk Cousins, as Allen never threw for more than 266 yards last year and had just four games with more than 34 pass attempts. My guess is that Diggs is a slightly better version of 2019 John Brown, who posted at least 9.2 half PPR points in 13-of-16 games but topped 13.4 points just three times. The matchup is good, so start Diggs as a high-floor WR3 with upside for more.

He's now 33 years old and starting with a new team. It's not going to be an easy transition but playing with Drew Brees should make it a tad easier. It's also good to know that Sanders won't have to go against top-tier cornerbacks anymore. The Bucs are likely going to play sides and not shadow, but I'd expect Sanders to see the most of Sean Murphy-Bunting in coverage most of the time. He allowed 51-of-71 passing in his coverage last year, which is a high 71.8 percent catch-rate, but they only went for 10.4 yards per reception. That's right in Sanders' wheelhouse, but it's unlikely he gets enough targets to make a big impact in your fantasy lineup. He should be good for 4-6 targets and WR4/5-type production, though he doesn't come with a massive ceiling.

Breida is the better pass-catching option of the two and will likely be mixed in throughout the game on early downs. He's also more elusive and may not rely on his offensive line as much as Howard. Because of that, he may be the better option of the two this week, though Howard will be the goal-line back. No matter the case, it's not one to be excited about for Breida, an RB4 who gets a slight bump in PPR formats.

I remember using Beasley in a pinch a few times last season, and it worked out much more than anyone realized. He scored at least 8.3 half PPR points in 11-of-15 games last year. To be fair, he also saw at least six targets in 11-of-15 games last year, a number that's bound to come back down to earth with Stefon Diggs in town. The biggest strength on the Jets cornerback depth chart is Brian Poole, who routinely covers the slot for them. He allowed just 244 yards and one touchdown in his coverage last year, and that's over a span of 53 targets. The Jets liked him enough to give him another one-year deal worth $5 million. I've said it in the Diggs/John Brown notes, but Josh Allen is unlikely to throw the ball more than 30-34 times in a game they're nearly double-digit favorites. The Bills wide receivers averaged 19.4 targets per game last year. If we're expecting 6-8 for Diggs and 4-6 for Brown, that doesn't leave a whole lot of room for Beasley, who's not exactly efficient with fantasy points on a per-target basis. It's best to let him sit on the waiver wire right now, as he'd be useful if Diggs/Brown missed time or had a brutal matchup. Neither are true in this case.

It seemed like Knox was on his way to fantasy relevance as 2019 went on, though the signing of Stefon Diggs certainly removed a lot of that appeal. There were just three games Knox totaled more than four targets last year (without Diggs on the roster). That's not great for his projections moving forward, and neither is the matchup with the Jets, who completely shut down tight ends last year. They allowed just 1.50 PPR points per target, which ranked as the second-lowest number behind only the Vikings. The important part that last year's numbers don't show is the loss of Jamal Adams, who is/was one of the best cover safeties in the game, and the Jets traded him away to the Seahawks. That will be a massive change to adjust to and might take some time. Still, there aren't enough targets to go around to start Knox with any confidence.