Fantasy Football Player Notes

Robinson Jr. is the RB15 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in explosive run rate, 10th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fourth in yards after contact per attempt. He has averaged a 58% snap rate with 16.5 touches and 112.5 total yards per game. The Bengals remain a wonderful run funnel with the ninth-lowest stuff rate while giving up the third-highest missed tackle rate and the sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt.

McLaurin is the only receiver that's currently fantasy viable in the Commanders passing attack. He is the only wide receiver that logged at least a 60% route share last week (McLaurin 79%). Last week, his usage bumped up with a 27.6% target share, a 22.9% air-yard share, and a 31.8% first-read share. The problem for McLaurin and this offense is that it is in dink and dunk mode. McLaurin's 0.73 YPRR can be traced to his 3.8 aDOT. It's tough for any wide receiver to produce with basically elongated handoffs every play. I'm not trying to wedge McLaurin into fantasy lineups this week against a secondary that has allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers. McLaurin will run about 81% of his routes against Cam Taylor-Britt (50% catch rate and 80.6 passer rating) and Dax Hill (62.5% catch rate and 75 passer rating).

Ekeler has been a viable, if not strong, flex play after two weeks. He has averaged a 48% snap rate with 8.5 touches and 73.5 total yards per game. His snap rates haven't changed much overall to when the Commanders have been trailing, so even if we project Washington to trail for much of this game, it won't bump up Ekeler. Ekeler has logged a 20% missed tackle forced rate and 2.3 yards after contact per attempt, which aren't bad metrics at all, even with the small early down sample size. The Bengals were tough against receiving backs last year, allowing the seventh-fewest receiving yards and the 10th-fewest receptions. This is a week to sit Ekeler.

Ertz is the TE9 in fantasy points per game with a 15.1% target share, a 30.1% air-yard share, 1.76 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share. Among 38 qualifying tight ends, he ranks 18th in separation and fifth in route win rate. Ertz is a wonderful streamer this week and should be ranked as a low-end TE1. Last year, Cincy allowed the second-most receiving yards and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.