Fantasy Football Player Notes

Conner is the RB17 in fantasy points per game, ranking 12th in snap share, 11th in weighted opportunities, and 12th in red zone touches. He ranks 13th in rushing yards, sixth in receiving yards, and 20th in yards per touch among running backs. Conner has averaged 18.3 touches and 92 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, Conner ranks 17th in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt and second in missed tackles forced per attempt. At first glance, the Patriots have fielded a strong defense over the last few weeks, but if we look deeper, there's a nice lane for Conner to produce in Week 15. 45.2% of Conner's runs have come via duo, counter, and draw rushing plays. The Patriots against these run concepts have had the third-lowest stuff rate while ranking 17th in yards per carry and giving up the second-highest success rate. Conner also benefits from running behind an offensive line that, since Week 9, has ranked second behind only Philly in adjusted yards before contact per attempt.

Could Week 15 be the week when Trey McBride finally catches his first touchdown pass of the 2024 season? The matchup is generally favorable for McBride to do so. Arizona faces the New England Patriots, who have allowed five touchdown catches to opposing tight ends this year. That is tied for eighth-most in the NFL. Even if McBride cannot get off the schneid this week, he is getting enough volume to keep fantasy managers happy. McBride has finished as a top-10 fantasy tight end in six straight games. He has done so on the strength of a target share that would make Malik Nabers blush. McBride has earned 41 targets in Arizona's last three games. As long as he gets anything close to that level of volume, he is an every-week starting fantasy tight end.

I'm not sure if Christian Gonzalez will shadow Harrison Jr. this week. He should, but New England hasn't been letting Gonzalez follow the opposing top receiver. Since Week 10, Gonzalez has only followed Tyreek Hill on at least 50% of his routes (54.5%). Harrison might still have another down week even if he only sees Gonzalez during 30-40% of his routes. New England has utilized two high with at least 50% of their defensive snaps six times this season and in two of their last four games. Not only has Kyler Murray struggled against two high, but Harrison Jr. has as well. Against two high, Harrison Jr. has had an 18.8% target share with 1.46 YPRR and a 26.5% first-read share. Since Week 9, New England has ranked 15th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.