Fantasy Football Player Notes

Jaylen Waddle had a horrible beginning to his Denver tenure in Week 1. He led the team with a 78.8% route share but saw only a 10.7% target share and 14.3% first-read share as he finished with one reception for two yards. Bo Nix played terribly in Week 1, and Davis Webb stumbled out of the blocks as a playcaller. I'm not laying this pitiful performance at the feet of Waddle. The entire Denver offense was on life support in Week 1. It won't get any easier in Week 2 for them, but I expect (or hope) that they will look at least serviceable this week. In Week 1, Jacksonville utilized two high with 56.7% of their defensive snaps. In 2024-2025, Waddle, against two high, had a 21% target-per-route run rate and 1.87 YPRR. If Nix can get him the ball, Waddle should have a bounce-back week, but I don't expect it to be a massive stat line. Last year, the Jags allowed the third-fewest yards per target and the second-fewest fantasy points per target to slot receivers.

J.K. Dobbins reprised his early down only role in Week 1 to open the 2026 season. Dobbins played 40.4% of the snaps while handling 53.3% of the designed carries and seeing only a 15.2% route share. Dobbins finished with eight carries and 36 rushing yards. Dobbins will be a game-script-sensitive flex again this season. He did look like his normal self running the ball with a solid 12.5% explosive run rate and 3.5 yards after contact per attempt. Dobbins is a sit this week, though. I don't think gamescript is in his favor, and Jacksonville's run defense should be able to keep him from ripping off any big runs. Last week, Jacksonville allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate, the ninth-fewest yards after contact per attempt, and the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate.

Courtland Sutton also had a quiet Week 1 to begin the season as Denver's offense struggled against the Chiefs. Sutton finished with a 14.3% target share, 11 receiving yards (0.48 YPRR), one red zone target, and a 14.3% first-read share. In Week 1, Jacksonville utilized two-high with 56.7% of their defensive snaps. This coverage type isn't great for Sutton's outlook in Week 2. Last year, against two-high, Sutton's target-per-route run rate dropped from 26% (against single high) to 18%, and his yards per route run dipped from 2.32 (against single high) to 1.41. If you can, sit Sutton this week. Last year, Jacksonville allowed the third-fewest yards per target and the eighth-fewest fantasy points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

RJ Harvey operated as the passing-down complement to J.K. Dobbins in Week 1. He played 55.3% of the snaps with a 42.4% route share. Harvey had a 14.3% target share and finished with seven touches and 41 total yards. Harvey is a viable PPR flex for Week 2. Last season, Jacksonville ranked 15th in yards per route run allowed to running backs while giving up the 11th-most receiving fantasy points per game to the position. Harvey popped up with a hamstring injury this week, so I'll continue to monitor his status as we move closer to Sunday. He didn't practice on Wednesday.

Last week, Evan Engram had a 60.6% route share and 63.8% snap share. He saw a 14.3% target share and 21.4% first-read share as he finished with 43 receiving yards (2.15 YPRR) and a score. Engram had one red zone target and a deep target. He finished as the TE8 for the week. We'll see if he can keep the hot start up, but I have my doubts. Last year, Jacksonville allowed the sixth-fewest yards per target and the eighth-fewest fantasy points per opportunity to tight ends.