Fantasy Football Player Notes

De'Von Achane scored for the fourth consecutive game last week, but his struggles on the ground continued. Achane has totaled just 70 rushing yards on 31 carries across his last three outings. His prowess in the pass game and propensity to score touchdowns has kept Achane in the weekly RB1 conversation. That will likely remain the case in Week 15, but it should be noted that the matchup is very difficult. The Houston Texans lead the NFL in DVOA against the run and rank second versus running backs as pass catchers out of the backfield.

Since Tagovailoa's return in Week 8, Hill has been the WR17 in fantasy, drawing a 20.5% target share with 2.13 YPRR and a 23.4% first-read share. Hill has nine red zone targets in this stretch. He finally had a classic "Tyreek Hill" performance last week, and he could stack another one this week. Houston has two massive outlier games this season (Weeks 1 & 11) where they utilized two high with at least 82.3% of their defensive snaps. I can't rule out that they deploy this approach in Week 15, but if they don't and stick to the formula they have used in their 11 other games, Hill should cook this week. In the other 11 games they have had this season, they have utilized single-high with 60.9% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 8, against single-high, Hill has had a 27.8% target share with 3.15 YPRR and a 30.6% first-read share. Hill will have to contend with a secondary that, since Week 9, has held perimeter wide receivers to the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game and the third-fewest PPR points per target.

Since Week 8, Waddles has had only two games where he's had at least 12 fantasy points and 60 receiving yards (Weeks 12 & 14). It has been a rough season for Waddle, and really not because he has been bad, but because Miami hasn't featured him in the passing game. That distinction has gone to Jonnu Smith. Across his last seven games, he has only two red zone targets. That's blasphemous for a player with Waddle's talent. Houston has two massive outlier games this season (Weeks 1 & 11) where they utilized two high with at least 82.3% of their defensive snaps. I can't rule out that they deploy this approach in Week 15, but I lean that they will stick to the formula they have used in their 11 other games. In the other 11 games they have had this season, they have utilized single-high with 60.9% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 8, against single-high, Waddle has had a 13% target share and 15.3% first-read share despite still producing 2.02 YPRR and 0.126 FD/RR. Waddle remains a volatile WR3/flex play for Week 15. Since Week 9, Houston has held perimeter wide receivers to the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game and the third-fewest PPR points per target.

Smith has been on fire. He has pulled his season-long status up to TE6 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 8, he has been the TE5 in fantasy points per game, seeing an 18.6% target share with 2.35 YPRR and a 22.8% first-read share. He has nine red zone targets across his last seven games played. This week, Smith faces a Houston defense that ranks 15th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends while giving up the tenth-most receiving touchdowns per game to the position.