Fantasy Football Player Notes

Just pull out a spoon and eat the Kelce chalk on this small slate. Kelce will carry one of the highest rostership percentages in this two-game slate. While I don't disagree with it at all, there's also leverage to be had by building lineups with two Mahomes' pass catchers not named Kelce. This is also a slate that presents double tight end as an option for lineup building. Kelce has a 24.7% target share (third-best) while ranking eighth in deep targets and first in red zone targets among tight ends. Las Vegas ranks 22nd in fantasy points per game and catch rate allowed to tight ends. They have surrendered the ninth-most receiving touchdowns to the position.

Since Week 13, Pacheco has settled into a steady role as the Chiefs' early down grinder averaging 14.8 touches and 82.2 total yards. While McKinnon has crushed him in the high-value touch department over this period (McKinnon 29, Pacheco 16), Pacheco still leads the duo with 43.8% of the carries inside the ten-yard line. McKinnon will be the more popular play of the two, so Pacheco is your leverage route. Pacheco hasn't been impressive as a rusher, but that doesn't mean that in a one-game sample, he can't outscore McKinnon. Pacheco ranks 30th in yards after contact per attempt, 39th in breakaway rate, and 40th in PFF's elusive rating (minimum 75 rushing attempts). The Raiders have been in disarray as a run defense, ranking 25th in rushing success rate and 17th in EPA per rush since Week 12.

Toney has only played 30-32% of the snaps the last two games. In Week 17, he managed a 33.3% route run rate and 27% target per route run rate with 4.73 yards per route run (four targets, four receptions, 71 receiving yards). Since joining the Chiefs, Toney has a 27% target per route run rate and 3.23 yards per route run. He has three red zone looks over his last two games. While Toney might remain regulated to a part-time role, he has the efficiency to counteract the limited snap count. If he sees his playing time increase at least marginally, he could be one of the best plays of this small slate.