Fantasy Football Player Notes
Week 1 Half PPR Rankings
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45.
Isiah Pacheco
RB - (vs . DET)
Pacheco will reprise his role as the team's early down grinder this year. He was efficient as a rusher, ranking 18th in explosive run rate and 14th in yards after contact per attempt (minimum 100 rushes per Fantasy Points Data). Last season, he only saw a 2.3% target share and a 14.8% route per dropback rate. If you're plugging him into your lineup this season, it likely should be when he has an easy matchup on the ground. Luckily for Pacheco, Christmas came early, as the Lions couldn't stop anyone on the ground last season. Detroit gave up the third-most rushing touchdowns, allowed the seventh-most missed tackles, and surrendered the fifth-highest yards before contact per attempt. Last season, 65.9% of Pacheco's runs were on zone concept plays, as he was fourth-best in zone run success rate with the tenth-highest yards per carry on zone runs. Detroit allowed the sixth-highest success rate on zone runs. Pacheco is a low-end RB2/strong flex play.
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70.
Marquise Brown
WR - (vs . DET)
I think it's smart to avoid starting WRs when we don't know who their starting QBs will be. Especially when it's a combination of a Day 3 rookie and journeyman veteran with zero track record of any success at the NFL level. Case in point, Marquise Brown should be on ALL benches in Week 1 versus an underrated Commanders secondary. Hollywood Brown played five games without Kyler Murray (three which overlapped with DeAndre Hopkins also playing), Brown was down to just 5.4 points and 35 receiving yards per game. He also posted similar production in the final two games of the season with both Hopkins/Murray sidelined.
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71.
Skyy Moore
WR - (vs . DET)
Fantasy GMs were hurt and wanting more last year as Andy Reid kept Moore capped all year in a part-time role. Every offseason report for Moore this summer has been glittering as he has been dubbed a starter in two wide receiver sets. This fact is huge as Kansas City was 24th in 11 personnel rate (three wide receivers on the field) last season. In the limited role we saw Moore in last year, he was immensely productive from an efficiency standpoint. Among 119 wide receivers with at least 150 routes run (per Fantasy Points Data), Moore ranked seventh in YAC per reception and tenth in missed tackles forced per reception. We'll see how much Moore plays in the slot versus outside in this game, but when he's lined up on the perimeter, he'll face Cameron Sutton (50.7% catch rate, 69.6 passer rating allowed in 2022) and Jerry Jacobs (55.0% catch rate, 74.9 passer rating allowed in 2022). This isn't a good matchup for Moore's YAC game. Last year, Detroit allowed the fourth-lowest YAC per reception and fifth-lowest missed tackles allowed per reception. Moore is a WR4.
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85.
Jerick McKinnon
RB - (vs . DET)
McKinnon ran hot to close the year in 2022. If you've drafted him, it's for his PPR appeal, but sadly, this isn't a week to consider him in your flex. McKinnon had an 11.7% target share last season while leading the Kansas City backfield with a 43.1% route per dropback rate. He was 15th in yards per route run with a 23% target per route run rate. Detroit shut down backs in the passing game last season, allowing the second-fewest receptions and the lowest receiving yards to the position. They were also 17th in yards per reception while surrendering zero receiving touchdowns. McKinnon is a desperation flex play in PPR formats.
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91.
Kadarius Toney
WR - (vs . DET)
Andy Reid has declared Toney good to go for Week 1. Color me skeptical about that. In ten games last year with Kansas City (including the playoffs), Toney was an efficiency darling and target-per-route run king. He had 2.60 yards per route run and a ridiculous 29.4% TPRR. Those are beautiful numbers in a bubble. When you also add in the context that he surpassed 32% of the snaps played once, Toney's scintillating efficiency stats get a heavy dose of cold water. If Toney plays Week 1, it's likely on a strict snap count, so you're praying he runs hot with targets on limited usage and scores a touchdown. Both of those things could happen, but that's asking a lot.
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141.
Irv Smith Jr.
TE - (vs . DET)
Three years into Irv Smith Jr.'s career, we have no real idea of how good he can be. The former second-round draft pick has lost 13 games to injury over the last two years. But Smith just turned 25 and is in a great situation as the starting tight end in an offense triggered by QB Joe Burrow. It might be best to wait at least a week before plugging Smith into your lineup, however, as he opens the season against a Browns defense that allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to tight ends in 2022.
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151.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
RB - (vs . DET)
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171.
Rashee Rice
WR - (vs . DET)
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174.
Mecole Hardman Jr.
WR - (vs . DET)
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179.
Richie James Jr.
WR - (vs . DET)
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182.
Noah Gray
TE - (vs . DET)
Avoid Noah Gray. If Kelce sits, I wouldn't be picking up Gray with the idea of starting him. Even in limited action, Gray has not been an impressive player, with a career 0.78 yards per route run and 10.2% TPRR. If you need a streaming tight end, look for Juwan Johnson, Gerald Everett, or Logan Thomas (if you're exceptionally desperate) on the waiver wire. Each player is below 45% rostered in Yahoo leagues and has a strong to exceptional matchup for Week 1.
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189.
Keaontay Ingram
RB - (vs . DET)
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201.
Justyn Ross
WR - (vs . DET)
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245.
Justin Watson
WR - (vs . DET)
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277.
Blake Bell
TE - (vs . DET)
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356.
Matt Bushman
TE - (vs . DET)
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387.
Jody Fortson
TE - (vs . DET)
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392.
Deneric Prince
RB - (vs . DET)
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422.
Montrell Washington
WR - (vs . DET)
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434.
Cornell Powell
WR - (vs . DET)
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442.
La'Mical Perine
RB - (vs . DET)
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450.
Gerrit Prince
TE - (vs . DET)
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454.
Hassan Hall
RB - (vs . DET)
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