Fantasy Football Player Notes

Last week, Bucky Irving returned and immediately cemented himself as the clear lead back again. He played 54.4% of the snaps with a 24.2% route share, 17 of 21 running back carries, and all three of the team's red zone rushing attempts. Irving finished with 19 touches and 81 total yards as the RB15 for the week. I expect his snap count to rise further this week with some more passing game involvement. Last week, Irving didn't break any explosive runs and had only 1.59 yards after contact per attempt, but he did have a 41% missed tackle rate (WOW!), so I expect his efficiency numbers to climb moving forward. Since Week 9, the Saints have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-most yards before contact per attempt.

Emeka Egbuka has had a slump recently. Since Week 6, he has finished as a top 24 wide receiver in weekly scoring only once. That includes his last meeting with New Orleans, where he secured only three of his nine targets for 35 scoreless receiving yards as the WR55 for the week. Overall, Egbuka has a 24.9% target share with 65.9 receiving yards per game, 2.04 yards per route run, and a 30.7% first-read share. Egbuka leads the Bucs with 13 red zone targets and 14 deep targets. This week, he has a rematch with a Saints' secondary that, since Week 3, has utilized single high at the sixth-highest rate (58.9%). Since Week 6, Egbuka's struggles have been against two high as he has CRUSHED single high with a 33.9% target share with 2.23 yards per route run and a 41.5% first-read share. This is a wonderful spot for Egbuka to bounce back. Since Week 9, New Orleans has allowed the second-most PPR points per target and the 14th-most receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers.

Chris Godwin (WR)
Last week, Chris Godwin saw his route share increase to 60.6% with a 17.9% target share with 78 receiving yards, 3.90 yards per route run, and a 22.2% first-read share. Godwin had two red zone targets and a deep target. Godwin is a solid flex option this week against a Saints' pass defense that has faced the fewest slot targets this season but has allowed the 12th-highest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers.

Cade Otton is the TE26 in fantasy points per game and on the fringe of streaming status this week. Otton has a 15.2% target share with 34.3 receiving yards per game, 1.17 yards per route run, and a 14.4% first-read share. He has only three red zone targets and a deep target this season. New Orleans is 15th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends and has given up the 14th-most fantasy points per game to the position. With the Bucs' other receiving weapons getting healthier by the week, Otton is fading into the background. I would look to other streaming options this week, but if you're forced to plug him in a deep league for Week 14, I get it.

Last week, with Chris Godwin's route share increasing, Johnson saw his role evaporate with a 54.5% route share, a 7.1% target share, and an 11.1% first-read share. Jonson hasn't been a strong target earner this season and has lived on touchdowns to keep his fantasy value afloat. Johnson is a sit this week and droppable with Mike Evans likely back next week.