Fantasy Football Player Notes

McLaurin has totaled at least seven targets in each of Smith's three starts, but why does his target share (21.4 percent) pale in comparison to J.D. McKissic's (29.5 percent)? Still, did you know McLaurin is the only receiver in the league who's seen at least seven targets in every game? That's why he's posted at least 11.1 PPR points in 9-of-10 games, including five of them with 17.2-plus points. Despite facing a high run percentage against them (second-highest in NFL), opposing wide receivers have outscored running backs by 21.2 PPR points, which is the third-largest gap in the league. Touchdowns have been hard to come by for McLaurin in this offense, but if there's a team who can help accommodate him, it's the Cowboys who've allowed a league-high 19 touchdowns to wide receivers (one every 10.4 targets). That's a big contributing factor to the league-leading 2.13 PPR points per target they're allowing to the position. When you know McLaurin is locked into seven targets, that's massive. He should be locked into lineups as a WR1 this week.

The positive gamescript played right into Gibson's role last week, as he was able to accumulate 16 carries that amounted to 94 yards and a touchdown. The downside is that they felt the need to give Peyton Barber eight carries. To this point, Washington has hesitated to give Gibson the workload that fantasy managers crave. He's topped 13 carries just twice all season, though it's important to note that both those games came over their last four games. In Alex Smith's three starts, McKissic has totaled 17 carries and 33 targets, which is more than enough opportunity to be in the fantasy conversation every week. For those keeping track at home, that's a 29.5 percent target share. This should be interesting because the Cowboys have faced a running back target on a league-low 14.0 percent of pass attempts. They're also one of just four teams who've yet to allow a receiving touchdown to a running back. Even when targeted, they've allowed a league-low 4.29 yards per target. In fact, running backs have averaged just 5.2 PPR points per game through the air against the Cowboys, which is easily the lowest mark in the league. Meanwhile, they've faced a massive 26.6 carries per game (2nd in NFL), which bodes well for Gibson's role. That's happened because teams have chosen a run play on 47.8 percent of plays against them, which ranks as the second-highest rate in the league. Gibson had a career day in their first meeting, racking up 20 carries, 128 yards, and a touchdown. He's one of seven running backs who've finished with 70-plus yards on the ground alone against the Cowboys. There have also been three running backs who've scored multiple rushing touchdowns against them. The downside is that Gibson is a road underdog whose team is projected for just 21.5 points, but you have to keep him rolling as a mid-to-high-end RB2 in this matchup. McKissic's matchup is a bit tougher, though it's extremely hard to pass on his role with Smith under center. He's in the low-end RB3 conversation, particularly in PPR formats.

The positive gamescript played right into Gibson's role last week, as he was able to accumulate 16 carries that amounted to 94 yards and a touchdown. The downside is that they felt the need to give Peyton Barber eight carries. To this point, Washington has hesitated to give Gibson the workload that fantasy managers crave. He's topped 13 carries just twice all season, though it's important to note that both those games came over their last four games. In Alex Smith's three starts, McKissic has totaled 17 carries and 33 targets, which is more than enough opportunity to be in the fantasy conversation every week. For those keeping track at home, that's a 29.5 percent target share. This should be interesting because the Cowboys have faced a running back target on a league-low 14.0 percent of pass attempts. They're also one of just four teams who've yet to allow a receiving touchdown to a running back. Even when targeted, they've allowed a league-low 4.29 yards per target. In fact, running backs have averaged just 5.2 PPR points per game through the air against the Cowboys, which is easily the lowest mark in the league. Meanwhile, they've faced a massive 26.6 carries per game (2nd in NFL), which bodes well for Gibson's role. That's happened because teams have chosen a run play on 47.8 percent of plays against them, which ranks as the second-highest rate in the league. Gibson had a career day in their first meeting, racking up 20 carries, 128 yards, and a touchdown. He's one of seven running backs who've finished with 70-plus yards on the ground alone against the Cowboys. There have also been three running backs who've scored multiple rushing touchdowns against them. The downside is that Gibson is a road underdog whose team is projected for just 21.5 points, but you have to keep him rolling as a mid-to-high-end RB2 in this matchup. McKissic's matchup is a bit tougher, though it's extremely hard to pass on his role with Smith under center. He's in the low-end RB3 conversation, particularly in PPR formats.

We continually say, "Thomas has seen at least four targets in every game, which is stability you can't find at the tight end position." Unfortunately, that needs to turn into fantasy points at some point, otherwise, there's no point. Thomas has finished with at least three catches in 8-of-10 games, but he's finished with more than 42 yards just twice. Fortunately, one of those games came against the Cowboys when he caught all four of his targets from Kyle Allen for 60 yards and a touchdown. The downside is that just 32 percent of the pass attempts the Cowboys opponents have been thrown have been directed at running backs or tight ends, which typically have a high correlation. With J.D. McKissic eating up so many of those targets (29 percent target share under Smith), it's tough to say Thomas will see more than five targets. The good news is that there have been just six tight ends who've seen four-plus targets against the Cowboys, and five of them have finished as top-10 tight ends, with the only exception being Tyler Higbee who still managed to catch 3-of-4 passes for 40 yards. Thomas is in the high-end TE2 conversation as someone who at least comes with a decent floor.