Patrick Wallace discusses the topic of getting ahead on the run on closers.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Patrick head to So Called Fantasy Experts.

We all understand the concept of a “run” on a certain position or category (closers, catchers, starting pitchers) during a fantasy baseball draft, however ensuring that you are ahead of that run when it comes to waiver wire pickups, or even trade targets, may be even more important.

Most fantasy baseball players have heard the term “vulture” used to describe a middle reliever that can steal a few saves from one’s closer. Generally, given that the term vulture actually describes a bird that preys on the dead, describing a middle reliever as a “vulture” does not exactly fall under the category for terms of endearment.

Nevertheless, in July, filling that extra roster spot previously taken up by a starter you fear ever having to put in your starting lineup, or a hitter that has yet to produce anything in the first three months (Melky Cabrera), with an aforementioned “vulture” would not be a bad route to take. First, I will say it all depends on the league you are in and the guys currently available. For some reason, regardless of the size of the league, I have noticed some leagues do not value closers, and guys like John Axford, Brad Ziegler, Carson Smith, Shawn Tolleson, among others are still free agents. If that’s the case, there’s really no reason to “take a chance” on a middle guy, when an actual current closer sits on your waiver wire. However, assuming you are in a relatively normal league where all closers are scooped up, now is the time to make some speculative adds before it is too late.

In addition to identifying potential “vultures” to target, it might also help to try and determine which current closers may eventually start losing save chances due to either themselves being traded, or their team acquiring one of the below closers on the move.

• Koji Uehara (Boston Red Sox)
• David Robertson (Chicago White Sox)
• Tyler Clippard (Oakland Athletics)
• Jonathan Papelbon (Philadelphia Phillies)
• Francisco Rodriguez (Milwaukee Brewers)
• John Axford (Colorado Rockies)

These are closers on last place teams in their division, all of which are more than six games back of first in their division and/or a wild card spot. We could probably take Robertson off the list, but enlarge that pool of potential trade candidates to include Arizona (Brad Ziegler), Atlanta (Jason Grilli), Cincinnati (Aroldis Chapman) and, dare I say, Minnesota (Glen Perkins).

Before I am bashed by a Twins fan, I don’t believe Minnesota should move Perkins, given he is under team control through 2018, however, the team has gone from 30-19 on June 1, to 43-39 on July 6 (13-20 over the past month and some change). Add Minnesota or not, that means eight or nine current closers out of 30 in Major League Baseball could realistically be on the move in the next month, and that’s not accounting for any sudden changes that we experienced on opening night when the Atlanta Braves shipped Craig Kimbrel to San Diego.

Eight or nine closers potentially on the move means eight or nine current closers losing their job, and eight or nine current middle relievers gaining a lot more value in the matter of one 5-2 victory on August 1. First, for the sole purpose of this article, let’s identify who those current middle relievers are that could receive save chances in the final 2-3 months of the season.

Most people tend to focus on the stats middle relievers post as a way to gauge who the next closer will be, however that in retrospect generally has little to do with who a manager will pick. From past experience, several factors come into play in determining the next closer, or fill in closer.

• If anyone on their current roster has closed in the past for another team. This is the same reason why Lloyd McClendon is so eager to put Fernando Rodney back in the closer’s role over Carson Smith in Seattle. And speaking of Rodney, it’s the same reason he closed for Tampa Bay in 2012, despite coming off a season with a 4.50 ERA while Joel Peralta remained in a setup role despite posting a 2.93 ERA for Tampa Bay the previous season.
• K/9 ratio: Does the pitcher have the ability to face hitters from both sides of the plate and secure a one-run lead with runners on base (not allowing the hitter to put the ball in play)?
• Do they fit as a potential long-term solution (if the team expects to possibly compete next year)?
• If a young reliever, where are they at in terms of arbitration? A team, not going anywhere this season or next, will not have a pitcher rack up saves in the second half, only to drive up their price in arbitration the following off season.

For instance, Grilli seems like a likely trade candidate, however, so does Jim Johnson. So, while he is the ideal fill-in if Grilli is moved, and should be owned, at the very least in NL Only leagues, he may not truly be the solution for the final three months. Originally, Juan Jaime seemed like the “future” closer in Atlanta to replace Kimbrel, although he was recently moved to Los Angeles in the Juan Uribe deal. That would leave Luis Avilan as an ideal fill-in, however he hits arbitration for the first time this season, and I would expect the Braves to acquire an actual closer in the offseason, when the time comes that they believe they can compete for the NL East. In giving my explanation, here are my “vultures” to target in July.

• Atlanta Braves – David Aardsma: Aardsma closed for the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Triple-A team, Oklahoma City, prior to electing free agency and signing with the Braves this season. He has closing experience, and the ability to get strikeouts.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Daniel Hudson: Enrique Burgos seems like an ideal fit for the Diamondbacks if they move Ziegler, given that Burgos has already notched a few saves this year. However, if he is already picked up in your league, or fails to get the job done, I have been high on Daniel Hudson in that bullpen all year. The starter converted reliever is a free agent after this season anyhow, so it would not cost Arizona anything if they wanted to plug him in while they look for their future closer in the offseason
• Philadelphia Phillies – Ken Giles: He has been on everyone’s radar all season, so he likely is not a free agent. However, if he is, now is the time to scoop him up. Do not wait until Papelbon is actually dealt, because it will be too late by then.
• Colorado Rockies – Scott Oberg: Oberg closed throughout his career in the Rockies’ minor leagues, and seems like the logical future closer for Colorado at 25 years old.
• Boston Red Sox – Jonathan Aro: I don’t believe Uehara gets moved, however if he does, I think you could see Jonathan Aro or Heath Hembree (when healthy) get saves in Boston, not the usual suspects of Alexi Ogando or Junichi Tazawa. Tazawa and Ogando both enter their final years of arbitration, and if Boston moved Uehara, it would be conceding this season, meaning it would not make sense to drive up Tazawa and Ogando’s price this offseason. Aro had lights out numbers across the minor leagues this season, including an incredible K/9 ratio, while Hembree was a closer throughout the minors dating back to his time with San Francisco.
• Milwaukee Brewers – Will Smith: Smith has been absolutely dominant this season, and with Jonathan Broxton losing his set-up gig, I don’t see them suddenly trusting him in the ninth. While Smith does hit arbitration for the first time this summer, he could project as a guy that could end up being a long term solution for the, soon to be, rebuilding Milwaukee Brewers. In which case, the Brewers may want to see if they have found a potential diamond in the rough, before they look elsewhere for a closer in the offseason.
• Oakland Athletics – Edward Mujica: Sean Doolittle is the long term guy in Oakland, but who knows when he will be healthy. With that said, Edward Mujica is likely the obvious stop gap if they traded Clippard without a healthy Doolittle. Mujica has closing experience, and would not pose any threat to Doolittle should he ever return this season.
• Cincinnati Reds – Tony Cingrani: Cingrani seems like the obvious Chapman heir if the team does decide to move on from the flame thrower. The Reds seem content with keeping Cingrani in a relief role, and he should be back by the end of July from his most recent injury.

In terms of ranking the several names above, Giles obviously ranks number one. After that, I think it all comes down to which closers you think are likely to be moved, not which guy I will likely hit on. I’m not saying I will be 8 for 8 on the names above, however, why put in an early claim on Cingrani, if you don’t truly believe Chapman will be moved? Instead, I’d actually probably rank Oberg two, Aardsma three and Smith four. I’m not confident Chapman or Uehara get moved, and I think Burgos realistically gets the job over Hudson. However, I think Papelbon, Grilli, Axford (if he is even still the closer) and Rodriguez are all as good as gone. Clippard I think is on the fence, as I think Oakland will find it difficult to admit defeat by the deadline.

As for addressing the first part of the closer situation, the eight to nine closers that could be running out of save chances… While you may try to sell high on your players to other owners, you must first have a realistic internal idea of how your current roster sits. Perkins, Chapman, Papelbon, and likely even Rodriguez do not propose much of a risk. The investment a team would have to pay in order to acquire one of those relievers would not make much sense if they were not acquiring them to be a closer. However, you have to ask yourself as an owner of the “others”, would Axford close on a team if he were traded to a contender? Would Clippard (just ask the Nationals)? Would Grilli (Angels anyone)? Ziegler? I might even question Uehara. As an owner of one of them, if you could get “closer” value for them, I might begin shopping.

Then you also look at who might acquire Perkins, Chapman, Papelbon and Rodriguez. Would Tolleson still hold down the fort if Texas acquired K-Rod? How secure is Gregerson’s job if Houston could acquire an elite closer like Chapman? Granted you wouldn’t get any value for Roberto Osuna or the Cubs’ duo of Hector Rondon and Jason Motte as is, but they certainly aren’t fending off any competitors for the closer gig if the Blue Jays and Cubs become buyers. As substantial as it could be to acquire the potential closer by getting ahead of the curve, nearly just as much importance can be placed on trying to move a closer that may only have a couple weeks left holding down the gig. In fantasy baseball, it’s all about staying ahead of the dreaded note, “Fox Sports Ken Rosenthal reports the Houston Astros are interested in Jonathan Papelbon, which would allow the team to shift Gregerson into his more comfortable set-up role.”

Once that note gets out there, even if the trade never actually happens, and the report has no factual support, your closer’s maximum value is shot until after the trade deadline.

—

Patrick is a contributing writer at So Called Fantasy Experts. You can follow him on Twitter @PWall_1989.

—