Devonta Freeman
The running back position was once considered a top priority in the world of fantasy football. Through the years, however, the NFL has evolved into a passing league. As a result, the wide receiver became the cream of the crop talent in our industry. Despite the fact that the modern day NFL favors wideouts, running backs are becoming more valuable as receivers out of the backfield with players that include LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles paving the way for the stars of the future like 2015 rookie standout, David Johnson.
With receivers and quarterbacks dominating the overall top 20 in total fantasy points scored in the past few seasons, the running back’s value becomes even more imperative. If a fantasy owner makes the wrong selection early in the draft, it could put a damper on their fantasy season before it starts. Today, we will turn our focus towards some of the potential running back busts heading into the 2016 fantasy football campaign.
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Devonta Freeman (ATL) – ADP: RB8, Overall 15
Freeman took the fantasy world by storm in 2015, coming out of nowhere to finish the year as the No. 1 ranked running back in total points scored with 243.9 and a 16.3 FPPG average through 15 games. He began the season as the No. 2 back on the Atlanta Falcons behind Tevin Coleman. Through an injury, Freeman was thrust into the lead role and never looked back. In 15 contests, Freeman rushed for 1,056 yards and 11 touchdowns including four 100-yard rushing games. He also caught 73-of-97 targets for 578 yards and three scores as a receiver out of the backfield.
Let’s take a deeper look into Freeman’s outstanding numbers in 2015. From Weeks 2-to-7, he accounted for the bulk of his yardage and touchdown production totals by accumulating 603 out of his 1,056 rushing yards and 10 out of his 14 total touchdowns. Along with his seemingly inconsistent play last season, Tevin Coleman could also cut into Freeman’s production in 2016. There are rumors that Coleman’s role could increase this season which will cut into Freeman’s workload.
It is difficult to foresee another top notch fantasy season out of Freeman in 2016 and it wouldn’t be surprising if he came back to earth sooner rather than later. Atlanta revamped their offense by adding Mohamad Sanu to start opposite Julio Jones and selected sure-handed tight end in Austin Hooper in the recent NFL Draft. Those additions lead me to believe that the Falcons are bolstering their weapons around Matt Ryan to fine-tune their once deadly passing attack, which doesn’t bode well for Freeman’s fantasy outlook in the upcoming season.
With that being said, I’d select Tampa Bay’s Doug Martin (RB9) and reach for Seattle’s Thomas Rawls (RB13) over Freeman in upcoming fantasy drafts.
Eddie Lacy (GB) – ADP: RB10, Overall 20
Lacy once again lands in the consensus top 10 at the running back position in 2016 with an RB10 ranking. Lacy is coming off of a disappointing 2015 season where he ran for 758 yards, and three touchdowns including three 100-yard rushing games. He added another 20 receptions for 188 yards and two scores as a receiver out of the backfield. Lacy finished last season as the 25th ranked running back in total fantasy points scored with 120.6 and an 8.0 FPPG average through 15 contests.
Lacy battled weight issues last year and was even benched during the second half of the season in favor of the reliable James Starks, who re-signed with Gren Bay during the offseason. Starks, who carries an RB50 ranking, out-produced Lacy in 2015 by a small margin. He rushed for 601 yards and two touchdowns, including one 100-yard game, and caught 43 targets for 392 yards and three scores as a receiver out of the backfield. Starks finished last year as the 24th ranked running back in fantasy points scored with 123.3 and 7.7 FPPG average in 16 games. The lone difference is that Starks played in one more game than Lacy.
With both rushers accounting for production that is so close, Starks was by far the better pick due to his value and where he was selected in last season’s fantasy drafts. Green Bay’s offense should go back to its elite form in the passing game now that Jordy Nelson is returning, which should help open up rushing lanes for Lacy. Nevertheless, Lacy is overvalued at his ADP and should fall a handful of spots before he is taken in 2016.
I’d select Buffalo’s LeSean McCoy (RB12) and New York’s Matt Forte (RB14) over Lacy in upcoming fantasy football drafts.
Carlos Hyde (SF) – ADP: RB16, Overall 35
Hyde entered the 2015 season as one of the most hyped players at the running back position in fantasy football. Fast forward to a year later and we have a similar scenario. Hyde once again is rumored to be in store for his breakout campaign, but after two seasons in the NFL there is one question that comes to mind when it comes to the young rusher, “why?”
Hyde began 2015 with a promising performance against a stout Minnesota Vikings’ defense. He ran for 168 yards on 26 carries and crossed the goal line twice in the matchup. In the next six weeks leading up to his season-ending foot injury, Hyde failed to reach the 100-yard mark and only accounted for one score. Through seven outings in 2015, Hyde tallied 115 attempts for 470 yards and three touchdowns. He was virtually invisible in the passing game as well.
In his short tenure in the league, Hyde showed flashes of perhaps becoming a solid runner, but he’s inconsistent and is beginning to show signs of durability concerns. Hyde missed 11 out of his first 32 games as a pro, which doesn’t bode well for a back running behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Hyde is the product of a talented player on an awful 49ers team that is in the midst of rebuilding their once storied franchise.
I’d select Oakland’s Latavius Murray (RB17) and Cincinnati’s Jeremy Hill (RB19) over Hyde in upcoming fantasy football drafts.
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Anthony Cervino is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Anthony, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @theRealNFLguru.
