MLB teams and fantasy managers start to carefully inspect the standings once June rolls around. Enough data has materialized to identify trends while deciphering breakouts from flukes.
For relievers, that point never truly comes. Yes, owners can use that logic to buy early gems like Tommy Kahnle and Anthony Swarzak. They also can’t take a celebratory victory lap, as one bad day could drag either’s otherworldly numbers back to earth.
The middle-reliever carousel operates at a roller-coaster’s speed, as teams will ride the hot hand and vanquish a struggling pitcher to menial assignments. While four highlighted pitchers demanded attention after a dominant May, this week’s column ends with a household name no longer worth owning in holds leagues.
This isn’t the typical middle-relief roundup eyeing future closers. Instead, this column aims to help those in holds (or saves-plus-holds) formats. In some cases, they’re even useful for deep-league managers eyeing a strikeout and ratio boost beyond the obvious names.
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New closer Bud Norris and lights-out setup man Blake Parker receive most of the credit for the Los Angeles Angels’ surprisingly stout bullpen sans Cam Bedrosian. Yusmeiro Petit is also doing yeomen’s work as their overlooked long reliever.
Only Mike Montgomery has logged more innings (33.1) from the bullpen than Petit, who has accrued 38 strikeouts in 32.2 frames. The 32-year-old has recorded more than three outs in 13 of his 19 appearances for the Halos, for whom he has notched four holds.
Think of him as a poor man’s Chris Devenski, who has garnered universal adoration for his long-relief dominance. While the Houston Astros’ fireman is owned in 64 percent of Yahoo Sports leagues, the highest rate of any non-closing reliever, Petit is rostered in 1 percent.
He also has a tenuous history with home runs and two years of below-replacement level production to offset, so this isn’t an endorsement for Petit as an elite reliever. But he has been an excellent strikeout source wasted on the waiver wire.
Jerry Blevins will struggle to keep his left arm attached while sustaining his current usage. Until that day comes, the heavily worked southpaw is an enticing holds option.
The New York Mets have deployed the southpaw in 28 games, which ties teammate Addison Reed for the National League lead. Yet he’s usually called for short spurts, resulting in just 17.1 innings pitched. During those outings, he has helped stabilize a rickety bullpen with a 1.56 ERA and 26 strikeouts.
Previously not much of a strikeout artist, Blevins didn’t stand out as more than a run-of-the-mill LOOGY. Dating back to 2014, however, he has submitted 144 punchouts in 116.2 innings. He has collected nine over his last six appearances.
While he has regressed against righties, he has handled his specialty to near perfection. Lefties have levied a .124 wOBA, and none of the 45 batters have slapped an extra-base hit. After Reed assumed the ninth in place of Jeurys Familia, Blevins and Paul Sewald are currently the only two late-inning relievers Mets manager Terry Collins can trust.
With seven holds this season, Blevins is on pace to comfortably shatter last year’s career high of 16.
Nick Goody’s run prevention has been incredibly… you know where this is going. Two months and 19.1 innings into 2017, he has yet to relinquish an earned run. (He allowed one unearned run in April.)
Perhaps his streak would be a bigger story on another team. On the Cleveland Indians, it’s more of a fun sideshow in their deep and dominant bullpen. Goody has also collected just one hold, as Terry Francona has understandably tasked Andrew Miller and Bryan Shaw with handing leads to Cody Allen.
Cleveland may still conceal some healthy skepticism, as he previously allowed 18 runs in 34.2 innings with the New York Yankees. He doesn’t wield an overpowering portfolio, submitting 19 strikeouts and five walks with a low-90’s fastball. His 14.6 swinging-strike rate, however, is pretty darn… yeah.
Will Goody keep pitching this… well? (Let’s not betray grammar for a bad pun.) Probably not, and he’ll struggle to receive hold opportunities in a loaded bullpen. Then again, the 27-24 Indians haven’t given the unit as many leads to protect as anticipated, so a hot streak could open Goody’s door to fantasy relevance in holds leagues. Continue to monitor his progress in mixed formats.
Despite allowing two runs in his past three outings, Andrew Chafin still carries a 2.55 ERA and 1.02 WHIP for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He’s capable of even better results, as suggested by a 1.68 FIP.
The southpaw hadn’t made much noise since arriving in 2014, but he displayed promising skills (11.12 K/9, 50.9 GB%, and 2.84 FIP) hidden behind a grotesque 6.75 ERA in 22.2 innings last season. He has enhanced those marks to elite levels in 2017, posting a 13.25 K/9 and 60.0 ground-ball rate.
Ditching his four-seam fastball for more sliders and sinkers could unlock another level. According to Brooks Baseball, opponents have whiff rates of 30 and 48.33 percent against his sinker and slider, respectively. His fastball, on the other hand, has yielded a 9.62 whiff rate and .423 slugging percentage.
Yet Chafin has earned just three holds, as J.J. Hoover, Archie Bradley, and Jorge De La Rosa receive Arizona’s high-leverage spots. Continued success could earn him more chances. As could Bradley moving back to the rotation or the team realizing how terrible Fernando Rodney is. It often pays to seek skills with hopes of the proper role falling in place.
Drop: Kyle Barraclough (MIA)
Kyle Barraclough was the hottest preseason middle reliever in town. Drafters salivated over his 14.0 K/9, either hoping for another 29 holds or a ninth-inning promotion. Instead, he’s no longer usable in any formats.
The hard-throwing righty has registered 23 strikeouts in 22 innings. That’s fine, but hardly unique production. As of Wednesday, 101 relievers wielded a K/9 of 9.0 or higher. Most of them also haven’t issued 19 walks.
He was wild last year, but investors forgave a 5.45 BB/9 because of his game-changing strikeout tallies. When nobody could hit him in 2016, he mustered a 1.22 WHIP despite the free passes. It has ballooned to an untenable 1.70 this season.
The Miami Marlins haven’t given up on Barraclough, who recorded his sixth hold on Monday. Nevertheless, fantasy owners—plenty remain considering his 12-percent Yahoo ownership rate—should. Loyalty is a major pitfall in the cruel game of chasing relievers.
Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.
