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DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Saturday (7/7) Afternoon Slate

DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Saturday (7/7) Afternoon Slate

Welcome in to another edition of DraftKings Value Plays. It’s looking like a worry-free weather spot for a pretty nice little Saturday. We’re going to focus on the nine-game afternoon slate because that’s where all the fun is today. We’re talking not two or three, but five aces on this slate…all priced at $11,800 or higher. If you’re like me, you’re paying up for at least one of these studs. But we’ll need to uncover some bargain bats to make the lineup construction work for us. Put the coupons down. We’re going to find some discount price tags that can make the difference. Ready? Let’s go!

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Pitcher

Steven Matz (NYM): $6,100 vs. TAM

Say what you will about the Mets, but Matz has actually been one of the most consistent players on the entire team. He’s also been consistent on the DFS front as well, paying off his salary in nearly two-thirds of his outings. The Rays offer plenty of strikeout upside here as they are still hovering around a 24% K rate versus southpaws. His only blemish in his last five starts has been his start in Colorado. I’m ignoring that outing at Coors Field and you should too. Since that start, his hard contact allowed has gone down considerably and he’s coming into this start with a 52.4% ground ball rate compared to just a 14.1% line drive rate on the year, both career bests and stark contrasts. He’s viable in both cash games and tournaments today.

Other Notables

Anibal Sanchez (ATL): $5,900 @ MIL

Catcher

Elias Diaz (PIT): $3,300 vs. PHI

Diaz has been in the Other Notables section a few times this summer. It’s time we talk about him. He’s been great the last two weeks with 13 hits in his last 12 games and a couple HRs in there as well. He’s been absolutely smashing the ball with serious exit velocities and hard hit rates since Francisco Cervelli has been out. I don’t love the matchup, but considering how he’s getting on base basically every game, he’s worth plugging in for the price.

Other Notables

John Hicks (DET): $3,500 vs. TEX (also 1B eligible)

First Base

Carlos Santana (PHI): $3,900 @ PIT

Santana’s batted ball metrics were ridiculous to start the season but he wasn’t producing like you’d expect as he’d been basically smashing the ball right at defenders. Nothing has changed with the absurd hard hit and flyball rates or the elite batted ball speeds and distances. What has changed is the flyballs are finally turning into extra base hits and homers. He’s cooled off a bit since his hot streak, but sub-$4,000 is still a great price for him. Besides, if you don’t like him, there are literally five guys in this article that are all first base eligible. Feel free to use their flexibility in your favor.

Other Notables

Brad Miller (MIL): $3,800 vs. ATL

Second Base

Jesmuel Valentin (PHI): $2,800 @ PIT (also 3B eligible)

Jonathan Villar is not in the Brewers lineup today which will force me to go ultra-cheap at the keystone. Cesar Hernandez is out for the Phillies and he is being replaced at the leadoff spot by Jesmuel Valentin today. Valentin is under 60 plate appearances on the season so the sample size is small to analyze but yet you can make a case for him being a $2,800 leadoff hitter against a pitcher struggling to limit hard contact. He’s the punt play today.

Other Notables

Kolten Wong (STL): $3,000 @ TEAM

Third Base

Adrian Beltre (TEX): $3,800 @ DET

It’s probably getting old for those who read this column routinely, my apologies to you both, but I’m saying my favorite IF/THEN statement. IF Adrian Beltre is below $4,000, THEN you should consider rostering him. I hate using the cliche of the professional hitter, but he just is. He fits that persona perfectly. He has had enough MLB history that you can go back and have a look at his BvP numbers. In examining those, his 7-for-16 with a homer was enough to catch my eye. I hate using BvP, but we know this dude can hit. Both he and the weather should warm back up today in Detroit.

Other Notables

Wilmer Flores (NYM): $3,400 vs. TAM (also 1B eligible)

Shortstop

Paul DeJong (STL): $3,800 @ SF

DeJong returned to the lineup at this same price last night and carried an average ownership of 2.2% across DraftKings contests. Sometimes this happens as folks are slow to get news, or maybe see it the next day…but 2.2% is criminally-low owned. It could very well happen tonight. Even at 4-5% ownership, I still like the power upside that DeJong can bring. I expect him to be right in the middle of the order against Jeff Samardzija, also being activated to make his first start off the DL tonight. There is almost always a degree of vulnerability and susceptibility for pitchers in their first start back, but that would be business as usual for The Shark as he’s been abysmal this season.

Other Notables

Elvis Andrus (TEX): $3,600 @ DET

Outfield

Nick Williams (PHI): $3,200 @ PIT

Williams is priced very affordably tonight and I think I’ll be using him quite a bit considering he carries a .224 ISO, .333 wOBA against RHP on the season. Jameson Taillon has been giving up an alarming amount of hard contact of late and Williams has the power to make him pay. The ballpark isn’t ideal, but the Phils hung 17 runs on the Bucs in cooler weather yesterday, so don’t worry too much about park factor if he barrels one up today

Marcell Ozuna (STL): $3,600 @ SF

I just mentioned Jeff Samardjiza being in a potential blow-up spot and that opportunity mixed with Ozuna’s discounted price is a nice combo. Ozuna was one of several Cards bats to start the season off slowly, but he’s since come around and is putting up some nice hard contact of late. He’s looking more like the Ozuna we know can produce and while DeJong may be more of a tourney play, I think you can use Ozuna in cash games here for cheap.

Nomar Mazara (TEX): $3,800 @ DET

Mazara is one of MLBs most under-the-radar run producers and quietly brings a .347 wOBA and 119 wRC+ against RHP to Comerica Park tonight. At some point, you have to think Mike Fiers season takes a turn down regression road and get more in line with his career peripherals. I do like a few Rangers bats tonight, so feel free to stack Mazara with them as they’re more affordably priced than they should be. He’s also in play in cash games.

Other Notables

Marwin Gonzalez (HOU): $3,300 vs. CHW (also 1B eligible)
Alen Hanson (SF): $3,500 vs. STL (also 2B eligible)
Austin Meadows (PIT): $3,700 vs. PHI

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Josh Dalley is a DFS correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow him on Twitter @JoshDalley72.

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