Bruce Matson discusses which players have seen their dynasty value rise or fall in Week 13. 

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We are approaching the fantasy playoffs and it’s do or die time for a lot of fantasy teams. Even though it’s one the most critical times of the season, we still have to do our due diligence and assess what’s going on around the league, so we can have a good feel of how player values are changing from a week to week basis. By doing so, we can capitalize on the inefficiencies in the trade market which will allow us to easily add value to our dynasty teams.

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Risers

Zay Jones (WR – BUF)
Jones caught four of his nine targets for 67 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday against the Miami Dolphins. In the last two weeks, he has reeled in 12 passes for 160 yards and three touchdowns. Since Week 10 he has owned a 28 percent share of his team’s passing targets while seeing 290 air yards. In other words, the workload is there, and we are finally seeing production. Efficiency might be an issue considering he caught just 55 percent of his targets in that timespan. It appears that Jones is developing into the Bills WR1 for the existing future.

I was never a big fan of Jones, and even though he has been productive, I’m still tepid on his dynasty value. If you feel like it’s a good idea to try and trade for him in the open market, then I wouldn’t pay more than a third-round rookie pick for his services. I’m personally not going out of my way to acquire him, but if you can get him for next to free, then you might as well do it.

Michael Gallup (WR – DAL)
Gallup led the team in receiving with five catches for 76 yards in the Cowboys’ upset win against the New Orleans Saints. In that game, he saw 25 percent of the targets while also accumulating 112 air yards. After a slow start to the season, Gallup is starting to gel with the offense and it’s starting to show in the box score. He’s now solidified as the team’s WR2 and he has a bright future ahead of him for years to come.

The arrival of Amari Cooper has done nothing but good things for the offense and it allowed Gallup to run routes against softer coverages. He’s only going to get better over time. Dallas’ can only have a run-heavy offense for so long, and eventually, they will need to rely on the pass more to win games. When that happens, we should see a huge increase in Gallup’s workload, making him a consistent asset in fantasy.

Right now, you can get him easily for a second-round rookie pick on the trade market. I feel that’s fair value, considering he’s a young prospect who is currently flashing his potential on the field. If you want him on your team, then this is a move that you will have to make soon, because if he finishes the year strong, then he’s going to be a hot commodity in dynasty leagues.

Chris Godwin (WR – TB)
Godwin went off against the Carolina Panthers, catching five passes for 101 yards and one touchdown. This was his second game of the season with more than 100 yards receiving. Going into the season, he was a trendy dynasty stash and now he’s starting to provide some weekly production for your lineup. His stock is trending up and come next offseason he will be a hot asset in dynasty.

The buying window is officially over. His owners are not going to let go of him unless they receive a lot in return. Overpaying is never the best practice, and no matter how much you like a player, you should never overextend yourself to get that player on your team. Unfortunately, the days of getting him for a second-round rookie pick are gone and now we have to wait for an injury or a string of bad games before we can buy him at a discount again. If you have him on your team, then I suggest holding him as long as possible and only sell if you get an offer you can’t refuse.

Fallers

Kareem Hunt (RB – FA)
I’ve never seen a player experience such a radical drop in dynasty value before. Hunt’s case could set a precedent to what could potentially happen to players who have severe off the field issues in the future. The Chiefs instantly cut Hunt once the video of his altercation was released. The NFL placed him on the commissioner exempt list, meaning he won’t be able to play in any games until he gets permission from the NFL. As of right now, we don’t know when he will play again, which is going to drastically affect his dynasty stock.

The best move here is to wash your hands of him by selling him off for whatever you can get on the trade market. From what I’ve seen from trades on social media is that he’s consistently fetching the value of a second-round rookie pick in trades. If you can get more for him great, but I suggest selling now before he has less dynasty value than Calvin Johnson. I understand this is a horrific event. However, we must do what’s best to maximize value and our long-term prosperity for our dynasty teams.

A.J. Green (WR – CIN)
A non-contact injury caused Green to immediately fall to the ground in pain. The injury was to his foot and he was carted off the field to seek treatment. His season is more than likely over, which means we won’t see him suit up in a Bengals uniform until the beginning of next year. At 30 years old, he’s closer to retirement than his rookie season, making him a depreciating asset in dynasty leagues. An injury of this magnitude will cause his value to drop a few points in the offseason.

Unfortunately, if you’re a Green owner then you have to sit on your hands and wait. You’re not going to receive the same return on the trade market as you would have a few days ago before the injury. It’s best to wait until there’s some positive feedback about his foot before you start thinking about trading him away, because if you deal him, then you are selling him while his value is down which is not an optimal move.

Honestly, if you have a rebuilding team, then you should have traded him away weeks ago. For contending owners, you can hold him and use him in your lineups next year. If for some reason you need to deal him away to patch up the void of him not being in your lineup for the playoff, then go right ahead, just remember that you are going to take a decent hit on his trade value.

Greg Olsen (TE – CAR)
Olsen is expected to miss the rest of the year due to a foot injury that he suffered during his Week 13 game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. As we all know, he’s been in the league for quite some time and he’s not getting any younger. An injury of this magnitude is devasting and will definitely affect how dynasty owners analyze his long-term player value.

This is a good time to buy Olsen on the cheap. His value is at an all-time low right now, and it shouldn’t take much to pry him away from his owners. The Panthers have him signed through 2020 and he will still be one of Cam Newton’s favorite targets next year. There’s a lot of volatility at the tight end position and by being able to get a veteran who can provide consistent production for your lineup can only help your team. If anything, kick the tires to see if you can get him for a second-round rookie pick or cheaper.

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