ERA may be one of the five standard pitching categories in rotisserie baseball, but we’ve long learned that it does a pretty poor job of demonstrating a pitcher’s true talent or predicting future success. Sure, it tells us what did happen over the course of a season, but that includes outside factors independent of his individual abilities.
For instance, hurlers have little control over what occurs once a ball is in play, so they’re often left at the mercy of their defense and luck – good or otherwise – to determine whether or not they get an out. Pitchers can influence the types of batted balls they allow (ground balls, fly balls, hard contact, etc.), but at the end of the day, batting average on balls in play (BABIP) tends to fluctuate from year to year and can often make or break a player’s ERA.
Nowadays, we have all sorts of ERA estimators to help us cut through the noise and give us a better idea of pitcher performance – including metrics like xFIP and SIERA – but one of the originals, fielding independent pitching (FIP), remains plenty useful to this day. The basic premise of FIP – stripping out the luck of balls in play – can be an easy first step in determining which pitchers were particularly lucky or unlucky the year before. Using FanGraphs’ handy 2018 leaderboards, we can easily sort through them and spot the outliers.
Today, let’s check out the five pitchers who had the biggest positive difference between their ERA and FIP among qualified starters in 2018. In other words, they underachieved in ERA, so let’s see what it means for their expectations this season.
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Jon Gray (COL)
2018 ERA: 5.12
2018 FIP: 4.08
In 2017, Jon Gray posted a 3.67 ERA over 110 1/3 innings that was backed by a 3.18 FIP, 24.3% strikeout rate, and 6.5% walk rate. Despite having to contend with Coors Field, many thought he could be the rare breakout Rockies starter.
Of course, we know how things really went in 2018. Instead, the ugly downside of trusting any Colorado pitcher was on full display, as Gray’s home ERA jumped from 3.13 in 2017 to 4.91 last year. Making matters worse, he struggled on the road as well. The end result was a brutal 5.12 ERA over 172 1/3 innings, with even a brief demotion to the minors thrown in for good measure.
And yet, maybe we should still consider going back to the well this year. In spite of last year’s debacle, Gray managed a far less horrifying 4.08 FIP, and his 3.68 SIERA was right around his career average (3.73). Even better, his strikeout (24.6%) and walk (7.0%) rates barely budged, and his swinging-strike rate actually went up (8.8% to 12.3%), falling right in line with 2016’s results.
Gray also appeared to suffer from some bad home run luck with an 18.1% HR/FB rate, leading him to surrender 1.41 homers per nine innings, the only time he’s allowed a mark over 1.00 in any season. He experienced reduced fastball velocity, too, something he attributed to bad health and weight loss.
Overall, it all looks like 2018 was Gray’s worst-case scenario, and this is largely the same pitcher who impressed in 2017. His slider and curveball remained big-time out pitches, registering swinging-strike rates of 19.1% and 18.1%, respectively, and he’ll once again have a strong arsenal if that fastball velocity creeps back up again. Let’s not forget that amidst the uneven results, he’s posted over 180 strikeouts in two of the past three years.
It’s understandable if you’re hesitant to take the plunge, but at an ADP right around 200, we’re not risking that much if Gray fails to fully bounce back.
Nick Pivetta (PHI)
2018 ERA: 4.77
2018 FIP: 3.80
It doesn’t take long to realize why Nick Pivetta is one of the industry’s hottest breakout picks despite an unsightly ERA in 2018.
Pivetta’s 3.80 FIP and 3.51 SIERA were both promising signs last year, and for the second straight year, he suffered from both a high BABIP (.326) and HR/FB rate (15.8%). Just as importantly, he posted an enticing 27.1% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate, backed up by gains in swinging-strike (12.0%) and first-pitch strike (63.0%) rates.
In looking at his individual pitches, Pivetta’s curveball and slider are the highlights. In 2018, the curve sported a 38.1% strikeout rate and 15.4% swinging-strike rate, while the slider had marks of 26.5% and 16.2%. It seems fair to say that last year’s strikeout rate looks legit. He used those offerings roughly a combined 37% of the time, suggesting room for even more upside with increased usage.
There’s little doubt that the pieces are there for a big fantasy season. However, the price is beginning to creep up, as he’s going around pick 150 in NFBC drafts. While the peripherals are alluring, let’s not forget we’re still talking about a guy with a career 5.33 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Be wary if his draft stock continues to rise, but on websites like ESPN and CBS – where he’s still going outside the top 200 – he could prove to be an absolute steal.
Zack Godley (ARI)
2018 ERA: 4.74
2018 FIP: 3.82
Zack Godley came out of nowhere in 2017 to post a 3.37 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 165 strikeouts over 155 innings. His peripherals passed the smell test, including a 26.3% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate, 13.3% swinging-strike rate, and 55.3% ground-ball rate. Throw in a sub-4.00 mark across his ERA estimators, and what could possibly go wrong?
Alas, Godley wasn’t able to fulfill those raised expectations. While he still managed to post a career-high 185 strikeouts, 178 1/3 innings, and 15 wins, his ratios became an eyesore (4.74 ERA and 1.45 WHIP) while all those solid peripherals went in the wrong direction. Both his strikeout (23.4%) and swinging-strike (11.5%) rates dropped, and his walk rate ballooned to double digits (10.2%). Even the ground-ball rate suffered (48.8%), and he gave up far more hard contact, allowing the 10th-highest hard-hit rate among qualified pitchers (38.4%).
However, his FIP remained under 4.00, and he endured the highest BABIP of his career (.324), so perhaps he still deserved slightly better than his wretched ERA would indicate. Similar to Gray, he also saw a noticeable drop in velocity, which is something he can hopefully rectify – he only turns 29 years old in April.
Given his drop in numbers across the board, we have less reason for optimism compared to the others on this list. Still, he maintained a filthy curveball that boasted a 40.7% strikeout rate and 18.5% swinging-strike rate. With improved velocity this spring, perhaps those numbers could regain some of that prior magic. Now going outside the top 200, and often a long way after, there could be some value to be had here. But as his projections suggest, keep your expectations in check and don’t hold out for a full return to his 2017 numbers.
Patrick Corbin (WAS)
2018 ERA: 3.15
2018 FIP: 2.47
With Patrick Corbin coming off easily his best season, it would only be natural to assume he would pop up on an “overachiever” list, not this one. Owning a career 3.91 ERA and coming off back-to-back seasons with an ERA above 4.00, surely he was lucky to produce last year’s 3.15 ERA, right?
As it turns out, his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA were all lower than that sparkling ERA. Corbin was just that dominant last year. Relying on his slider a whopping 41% of the time, he produced a career-best 30.8% strikeout rate and 15.6% swinging-strike rate while even dropping his walk rate to just 6.0%. He also saw a nice bump in both first-pitch strike (64.4%) and chase (38.0%) rate.
Corbin wasn’t completely perfect, allowing a 41.7% hard-hit rate, the second-highest among qualified starters. He also saw a concerning dip in velocity starting in May, although it would eventually work its way back up over the course of the season and didn’t have a major effect on his results.
Of course, when any pitcher has this sort of career year – even one as masterful as this – it’s only logical to expect at least a slight step back the following season. That said, if he can continue to regularly unleash that slider (29.3% swinging-strike rate) along with perhaps the curveball he debuted last year (13.0%), he should continue to succeed.
Corbin seems priced about right this year. Going around pick 50 after the top aces are off the board, he makes for an ideal number two starter.
Luis Severino (NYY)
2018 ERA: 3.39
2018 FIP: 2.95
Technically, Lucas Giolito and Marco Gonzales have the next biggest differences in ERA and FIP. Yet Giolito only mustered a 5.56 FIP and isn’t typically drafted in most formats, and Gonzales shouldn’t stray too far from the stat line he established last year.
So instead, let’s take a quick look at Luis Severino, whose impressive overall campaign was overshadowed by a miserable second-half collapse. From April through June, he produced a pristine 2.21 ERA (2.27 FIP) with a 0.97 WHIP, 30.3% strikeout and 5.6% walk rate as an AL Cy Young Award contender. However, a string of bad starts led to an awful 5.20 ERA (3.90 FIP) and 1.41 WHIP over the final three months, leaving a poor lasting impression on the season.
Severino was seemingly tipping his pitches by the end of the season, giving us a good explanation for such a sudden downturn. Furthermore, his FIP over those final three months wasn’t nearly as bad as the ERA, which is likely explained by some bad fortune in both BABIP (.354) and HR/FB rate (17.3%). Some of that was presumably deserved if he was tipping his hand, but overall it looks like we should give him a pass on a rough few months.
Despite it all, Severino still finished with a 3.39 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 220 strikeouts over 191 1/3 innings. He’s now posted over 190 innings and 200 strikeouts in back-to-back seasons, something few pitchers can say nowadays. Turning just 25 years old this month, poor second half or not, drafters would gladly take another season like 2018 again. Those first three months also hint at an even higher ceiling. Usually the 10th pitcher off the board, Severino could prove to be a value at that price when it’s all said and done.
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.
