Drafting using tiers is important, whether your league uses an auction or snake approach. Drafting is all about returning value on your investment, and when you’re able to group together a group of players who will return very similar production, grabbing the one who provides the best value can be a key part to your championship journey.
We’ll be breaking down different positions into tiers here at FantasyPros to help you dominate your draft.
Let’s get to the outfielders.
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Tier 1 – The Elite
There’s not a lot to say here. You can make a case to take either guy No. 1 overall. You’re getting the two safest players in fantasy who, as long as they stay healthy, will give elite production in all five categories.
Tier 2 – The Near-Elite
A step down from Trout and Betts, but still really good. There are different warts that each player has that you can look at and question, but overall, all are players who should provide value on their late-first to late-second round draft spot.
Tier 3 – You Know What You’re Going to Get
This tier is made up of players where you know exactly what you’re getting … we think. Stanton will give you the big power numbers, and you’d think Bryant will, too, if the shoulder is right. He’s traded power for contact recently, which hurts his fantasy value. Davis will provide you 40 home runs and more than likely a .247 average. With the last three, you know what you’re going to get, barring a Yelich-type leap forward from Benintendi.
Tier 4 – It Must Be Love
- Cody Bellinger
- Rhys Hoskins
- Yasiel Puig
- George Springer
- Marcell Ozuna
- Tommy Pham
- Lorenzo Cain
- Eddie Rosario
I’m in love with this group. I’m OK making one of these guys my first outfielder. Chances are Hoskins and Bellinger will be your first baseman this year with the state of that position. Puig has legit 30/20 potential in Cincinnati, and the last four guys are known commodities where you know you’ll get good, not great, production across the board.
Tier 5 – Mixed Blend
- Justin Upton
- Mitch Haniger
- David Dahl
- Nick Castellanos
- Michael Brantley
- David Peralta
- Wil Myers
- Michael Conforto
This tier is filled with an interesting blend of guys. With Upton and Myers, you know what you’re getting with them — numbers that will look good by the end of the year, even if the ride isn’t pretty. Haniger, Dahl, Castellanos, and Conforto have legit breakout potential in their respective situations. I want one of them as my OF2. Brantley in Houston is very interesting, even if he’s blocking Kyle Tucker.
Tier 6 – Speed, Speed, Speed, and Explosive Power
- Joey Gallo
- Aaron Hicks
- Victor Robles
- Dee Gordon
- Andrew McCutchen
- A.J. Pollock
- Stephen Piscotty
- Ender Inciarte
Another interesting tier here. If Gallo can just get that average to .245 or so, I’m all in. Hicks could be a top-10 points league outfielder if he hits leadoff consistently for the Yankees. Robles and Gordon offer near-elite speed, while the last four veterans on the list are underrated, safe options when healthy.
Tier 7 – Breakout Contenders
Smith is being criminally underrated as a top-speed option at the top of the Mariners’ lineup. Jimenez should be going higher in drafts than he is, but we don’t know for a fact that he will be up as early as Vlad will be, either. Will Mazara reach his untapped potential, or is he just a version of Eric Hosmer? I’m betting on the former. I worry about consistent playing time for Schwarber, while playing time is what will drive Desmond’s value. Nimmo enters the tier above in OBP leagues.
Tier 8 – Fade (Mostly)
This is a tier I’m avoiding besides Kepler. Kepler had an underlying breakout season last year. I’d take him at the right price. Reyes has arguably the best power tool in baseball, but playing time isn’t guaranteed with the crowded outfield in San Diego.
Tier 9 – Jekyll and Hyde
- Billy Hamilton
- Odubel Herrera
- Jake Bauers
- Shin-Soo Choo
- Ramon Laureano
- Austin Meadows
- Hunter Renfroe
- Jesse Winker
- Nick Markakis
- Ian Happ
- Cedric Mullins
- Jackie Bradley Jr.
- Harrison Bader
This tier is split with players I really like, and players I really hate. Hamilton can finally return value for owners this year at this spot. Choo and Markakis are so underappreciated in OBP leagues, but they are worth fading in roto leagues. If Winker was guaranteed a starting role, he’d be up in Tier 7. Bauers, Meadows, and Laureano are all intriguing options this year. Renfroe and Happ could be, too, if they get the playing time they need. Mullins is a guy I want everywhere this year, as an 18/16 season is valuable.
Tier 10 – Party Like It’s 2017
What a collection of names here, man. Show this tier to someone in 2017, and they’d scoff at it being 10th. Grichuk is a statcast darling still. If Polanco can be ready for Opening Day or shortly after, I’d bump him up a couple of tiers. I’m mainly out on the others unless I need steals later in my draft with Kiermaier.
Tier 11 – Unpretty
- Scott Schebler
- Chris Taylor
- Greg Allen
- Adam Jones
- Jose Martinez
- Steven Souza Jr.
- Trey Mancini
- Joey Wendle
- Jorge Soler
- Kole Calhoun
- Joc Pederson
- Matt Kemp
- Kyle Tucker
- Brandon Belt
- Jay Bruce
- Brett Gardner
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Avisail Garcia
This is an ugly tier. There are playing time concerns (Schebler, Taylor, Martinez, Tucker, Kemp, Gardner, Hernandez, Wendle), skill concerns (Souza, Pederson, Garcia), no job alert (Jones), and no thank you (Bruce, Soler). The only ones I’d consider are Calhoun, Mancini, and Allen. Allen is my favorite as a late-round steals guy. If you squint, you can see a pre-Michael Brantley, Michael Brantley.
Tier 12 – thank u, next
- Kevin Pillar
- Brian Anderson
- Marwin Gonzalez
- Mark Trumbo
- Christin Stewart
- Willie Calhoun
- Clint Frazier
- Tyler O’Neill
- Eric Thames
- Lonnie Chisenhall
- Franchy Cordero
- Jason Kipnis
- Leonys Martin
To wrap up the top 100, we have a lot of gross names (Pillar, Anderson, Trumbo, Chisenhall, Thames, Kipnis, Martin), but also some intriguing names. Gonzalez is interesting with the Twins, but I’d prefer a true everyday role for the entire year. The young guys have great outlooks for their future, but all of them have playing time concerns this year. If one or more of them finds their way to a regular role, they enter top-60 consideration.
Key Takeaways
- Your approach to outfield should depend on your scoring settings and if you roster three or five of them. If you have three, I’m usually targeting the second tier to lead the way if I don’t have the first or second pick in my draft. I’ll usually get my second in tier 4. But if it’s a five-outfielder league, I’ll try to get my first two outfielders within the first three tiers.
- Speed is available late. If I don’t get Starling Marte, who is one of the most consistent players each year in fantasy, I’m likely taking Mallex Smith, Billy Hamilton, or Greg Allen to help me out in that category.
- It falls off, fast. If you wait too long to have the majority of your outfield, you’re going to end up streaming a couple of guys in and out hoping to hit on the next breakout.
- In a five-outfielder league, I wouldn’t mind having two players from the seventh tier, excluding Ian Desmond. Those players have a legitimate shot to break out, and they are all going after pick 100 on average.
- Late in drafts, I like to target Max Kepler, Jesse Winker, and Cedric Mullins. I own multiple shares of each player, and with how late they are going in drafts, all are worth a flier. Kepler showed signs of breaking out last year, and I have hope the power will show itself this year. Winker profiles as a poor-man’s Joey Votto. Mullins is what we want from Harrison Bader, but he’s going 120 picks later.
2019 First Base Rankings Tiers
2019 Second Base Rankings Tiers
2019 Third Base Rankings Tiers
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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.
