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By The Numbers: Starling Marte, Jack Flaherty, Scooter Gennett

By The Numbers: Starling Marte, Jack Flaherty, Scooter Gennett

Starling Marte joined the elusive 20/20 club before drawing his 20th walk of the season.

The Pirates outfielder stole his 20th base Wednesday night to go with as many home runs. He now stands alongside Christian Yelich and Ronald Acuna Jr. as the third player to reach the important fantasy landmark, but he’s stuck at 19 walks this season.

That’s not meant to pour cold water on Marte’s season. His walk rate has dropped, but only from 4.9 to 3.8%. He’s never had much interest in taking a free pass, and it’s never hindered his fantasy value in five-by-five leagues. Since 2013, Marte — currently hitting .288 — has always batted at least .275. He only pilfered fewer than 30 bags when limited to 21 in 77 games two seasons ago.

The power has also risen with the rest of the sport. Alongside a career-high .496 SLG, the 30-year-old is setting personal bests in hard-hit rate (39.4%), barrel rate (8.6%), and expected wOBA (.366) on Statcast.

Even when OBP doesn’t count, fantasy gamers favor a refined approach. It’s understandable, as better skills lead to more playing time, scoring opportunities, and sustainable success. Marte, however, tends to get underappreciated as a result. As of Wednesday, he’s the 11th-best hitter on FantasyPros’ Player Rater this season. That’s despite making a brief detour to the injured list with an abdominal injury in April.

Marte isn’t the typical fantasy star, and that’s a good thing. Five-category contributors are scarce, so drafters should hope they once again have the opportunity to snag him in the third round next year. That’s assuming he doesn’t contract the By The Numbers curse. Ramon Laureano, Nelson Cruz, and Jeff McNeil each landed on the injured shortly after appearing in this column.

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Jack Flaherty: 0.70 ERA after All-Star Break
Flaherty has fallen well short of the hype as a major 2019 bust … is what someone would have said in June. He has since repaired 2019’s ERA to 3.52 by allowing three runs in six second-half starts. After tossing seven shutout innings in each of his three August outings, the 23-year-old righty has jumped to the Player Rater’s 27th starter.

Good things come to those who wait. Flaherty’s ERA rose as high as 4.90 as recently as July 2. Now he’s looking like the breakout star drafters anticipated. His recent dominance isn’t a mere fluke either; he ranks fifth in strikeout rate (34.7%) and third in FIP (1.88) after the break. The 2014 first-round pick has also assuaged command concerns by slicing his walk rate two full points to 7.6% (2.79 BB/9) this season.

What’s changed in recent weeks? According to Brooks Baseball, his average fastball velocity reached its highest mark since April in Tuesday’s three-hit gem at Kansas City. Perhaps more telling, his slider endured an early blip to climb back to 83.5 mph in August. The offering has drawn 55 whiffs over his last seven turns, including a resounding 15 against the ferocious Dodgers on August 7. Leaning more of his best pitch will help conceal his curveball’s deteriorating efficacy after it ceded no extra-base hits last season.

Aside from the diminished walks, Flaherty’s 2019 numbers now closely resemble 2018’s celebrated arrival. He’ll allow more runs eventually, but this resurgence has solidified his worth as a top-25 starter.

Scooter Gennett: .228 xwOBA
Last year, n0 hitter with at least 350 plate appearances had a more favorable differential between his wOBA (.362) and expected wOBA (.312) than Gennett. Surely, that can’t be the case this year. After all, there’s no going down from a .256 wOBA, right?

While nobody would dare to call the second baseman lucky, his current xwOBA is even harsher than the cold reality. Among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances, the only three lower on the leaderboard are Jeff Mathis, Chris Owings, and Grayson Greiner. Gennett, as of Wednesday, has mustered a whopping one barrel and 18 hard hits in 74 batted-ball events.

Sick of these nerd numbers? He’s batting .225 with two home runs, one walk, and 29 strikeouts. A true optimist will point to him notching both of those long balls and three doubles in 12 games with the Giants. Perhaps he’s finally recovered from a groin injury and ready to rebound. While the Statcast data was never a believer, it’s hard to argue against someone who batted .302 with 50 homers in 2017 and 2018. Yet the clock is ticking on 2019, so managers can’t afford to extend Gennett too long a leash. It’ll be impossible to justify rostering the second baseman if he doesn’t heat up in a hurry.

Astros: 8.6 Runs Per Game in August
Houston’s lineup at full strength is downright terrifying. After plating nine runs against the White Sox on Wednesday, each of the team’s 1-7 hitters ended the day slugging at least .525. Four of them are batting over .300.

Not among those .300 hitters, Alex Bregman boasts a .406 OBP this season and .459/.544/.892 slash line in August. Carlos Correa has already blasted six home runs in 17 games since returning from a rib injury. Jose Altuve has returned back to old form, hitting .354 with 13 homers since the Astros activated him on June 19. Also not missing a beat back from the shelf, George Springer has accrued 17 extra-base hits after the All-Star break.

Amid these injuries, the brittle Michael Brantley has stayed healthy all season to bat .328/.387/.525. Yuli Gurriel hit 13 home runs last season. He has 16 since the start of July. And this Yordan Alvarez guy looks pretty good. Instead of hitting a rookie wall, he’s hit .375 (18-for-48) with five more dingers this month.

All of these players, of course, are rostered in every league. So let’s instead pose another question: Can fantasy managers trust any starting pitcher against the Astros? They lead the majors in wRC+ and strikeout rate, a lethal combination for any opponent. Although they have feasted on the Mariners, Orioles, and White this month, the schedule doesn’t get much tougher.

With the A’s, Tigers, Angels, Rays, and Blue Jays next in line, Charlie Morton is the only ace to even consider using against the AL West leaders. He’s not necessarily a must-play for those with a tight innings limit. There may not be another conceivable option all season unless Lance Lynn starts in the two-game series on September 17 and 18. Even playing him against this lineup might be too dangerous unless they cool down. Only the truly desperate can risk trotting out any two-start pitcher who must navigate Houston in one of those turns.

Based on their remaining schedule, Houston’s hitters should feast all the way into the postseason. Enjoy the ride.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.

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