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Game-By-Game Projections: Tyler Lockett (2020 Fantasy Football)

by Dan Harris | @danharris80 | Featured Writer
Jun 17, 2020

Tyler Lockett has morphed into one of the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL.

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With Doug Baldwin’s retirement last year, Tyler Lockett got his chance to take over as Seattle’s No. 1 wide receiver. He set career-best marks in targets, receptions, and yards, topping 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his career and scoring eight touchdowns, seventh-most among wide receivers. Playing with Russell Wilson, Lockett has morphed into one of the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL. He’s one of the all-time leaders in yards per target and had the second-best catch rate in the league last year behind only Michael Thomas. The Seahawks have leaned heavily on the run for years, so it seems unlikely that Lockett can significantly surpass the 110 targets he saw last year. But, given his efficiency, he shouldn’t need to in order to finish as a strong fantasy wide receiver.

Here’s a game-by-game breakdown of how things could play out for Lockett this season.

You can find our entire 2020 Player Game-By-Game Projection series here.

Note: Fantasy scoring based on FantasyPros standard scoring methodology found here.

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Week 1: at Falcons
In a game that is likely to be high-scoring, the Seahawks are going to eventually need to let Wilson do his thing through the air, which should mean plenty of production for Lockett. In a game that turns into a shootout, Lockett will see significant targets and put up what will be one of his best efforts of the season right out of the gate.

Predicted Stat line:  6 receptions, 85 yards, 1 receiving TD

Week 2: vs. Patriots
The Patriots allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers last year, and this year should be a similar story. With an offense that is unlikely to put up many points, especially in Seattle on Sunday Night Football, the Patriots will lean heavily on their stout defense and play conservatively. That leads the Seahawks to do the same as they are wont to do, and they rely on their ground game to avoid New England’s tough secondary. That means Lockett gets few looks and finds little room to produce.

Predicted Stat Line: 4 receptions, 37 yards, 0 receiving TDs

Week 3: vs. Cowboys
The Cowboys offense should be electric this year and despite a second straight home game, the Seahawks will have difficulty slowing Dallas down. But that means good things for Lockett, as Wilson is forced to throw more than Brian Schottenheimer likes. Dallas generally limited opposing wide receivers last year, but Lockett finds the end zone when Wilson lets loose.

Predicted Stat Line: 5 receptions, 61 yards, 1 receiving TD

Week 4: at Dolphins
A cross-country trip against an improved defense in hot weather is never good for any offense. With Byron Jones and Xavien Howard, the Miami secondary is strong, and it’s a tougher matchup than Seattle or fans expect. Lockett in particular is held in check on a sloppy day for the Seattle offense.

Predicted Stat Line: 3 receptions, 35 yards, 0 receiving TDs

Week 5: vs. Vikings
In a home matchup on Sunday night football and with a bye on tap, the Seahawks are pulling out all the stops. Minnesota’s defense is strong, but they’ve taken some heavy losses in their secondary this offseason and can be exploited through the air. Both teams attempt to establish the ground game as they always do, but Wilson knows that when push comes to shove, the passing game is where this contest is won. Lockett is the beneficiary.

Predicted Stat Line:  6 receptions, 68 yards, 1 receiving TD

Week 6: BYE

Week 7: at Cardinals
The Cardinals ranked 27th in defensive DVOA against the pass last year, and there’s every reason for teams to continue to exploit them through the air this year. That’s especially true with the Cardinals expected to take a significant leap in offensive efficiency after their addition of DeAndre Hopkins. A shootout affair lends itself to plenty of targets and production for Lockett, as he puts up one of his best games of the season.

Predicted Stat Line:  7 receptions, 99 yards, 1 receiving TD

Week 8: vs. 49ers
Lockett’s first game against the 49ers in 2020 plays out much like it did in 2019. Both Seattle and San Francisco come to play, and the crowd noise at CenturyLink Field helps mask some of the Seahawks’ defensive deficiencies. Although Wilson found some success against the 49ers last season, it wasn’t always to Lockett, and it isn’t here, resulting in his worst fantasy effort of the season.

Predicted Stat Line:  3 reception, 28 yards, 0 receiving TDs

Week 9: at Bills
A cross-country trip to Buffalo in November against a strong Bills defense likely heading for its first division title since 1995? After a hard-fought, physical game against your division rival? None of it is good for the Seahawks or their passing game. The Bills ranked fifth in defensive DVOA against the pass last year, and should be equally formidable this season. That leads to another quiet day for Lockett.

Predicted Stat Line: 3 receptions, 34 yards, 0 receiving TDs

Week 10: at Rams
Lockett had four catches in each of his two games against the Rams last year, and puts up the same total in his first matchup against them this year. Although there are some changes to the Rams defense, they should remain strong against opposing wide receivers as they were last year, but Jalen Ramsey often stays out wide, leaving Lockett with the opportunity to add some yards. It’s not a monster game, but after two sub-par performances, Lockett brings some sanity to his fantasy owners.

Predicted Stat Line: 4 receptions, 70 yards, 0 receiving TDs

Week 11: vs. Cardinals
It’s a short week for the Seahawks, playing on Thursday Night Football, and it’s a sloppy affair. A second game against a divisional opponent doesn’t help matters for the offense, and the passing game generally lacks chemistry. Lockett still gets his production against an exploitable opponent, but it’s not a monstrous effort.

Predicted Stat Line: 5 receptions, 78 yards, 0 receiving TDs

Week 12: at Eagles
With extra time to prepare for a Monday Night Football showdown with the Eagles, the Seahawks come out firing. There are plenty of playoff implications in one of the biggest games of the year for both teams, and it shows up in the fantasy production. That includes Lockett, who despite matching up against an improved Eagles secondary, has his best game of the season in what amounts to a shootout.

Predicted Stat Line: 9 receptions, 112 yards, 1 receiving TD

Week 13: vs. Giants
The Giants offense should be improved with Daniel Jones having another year under his belt, and even in front of a raucous opposing crowd, New York should be able to put up points on Seattle’s defense. That means that the Seahawks follow their typical script, abandoning a run-heavy attack later in the game. Lockett again finds the end zone against a secondary that allowed 22 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers last year.

Predicted Stat Line:  5 receptions, 80 yards, 1 receiving TD

Week 14: vs. Jets
Home for the second straight week and against a less-explosive offense, the Seahawks are content to try to grind this game out by sticking to their run-centric attack. The Jets should again be far more beatable through the air than on the ground, but absent needing points, Seattle rarely changes its offensive philosophy. That means a pedestrian effort from Lockett and the entire Seahawks passing game.

Predicted Stat Line: 4 receptions, 54 yards, 0 receiving TDs

Week 15: at Redskins
Once again, the Seahawks don’t need to resort to a pass-heavy attack, as Washington won’t be able to put up a ton of points in this matchup. But even with Seattle playing conservatively, there is room for Lockett to produce and tally fantasy points, especially against a team that allowed the third-most touchdowns to wide receivers last year.

Predicted Stat Line: 4 receptions, 60 yards, 1 receiving TD

Week 16: vs. Rams
A second game against a division rival is never easy, and that’s especially true with the Seahawks looking ahead to the following week’s season finale against the 49ers. Lockett and the rest of Seattle’s passing game are generally kept under control in a low-scoring affair.

Predicted Stat Line:  3 receptions, 47 yards, 0 receiving TDs

Week 17: at 49ers
Lockett totaled six catches for 51 yards and a score in last year’s finale against the 49ers, but this one plays out differently. With only one playoff bye per conference this year, seeding doesn’t factor into play here, and neither team keeps its foot on the gas throughout. Lockett finishes his season with a respectable, but unspectacular, effort.

Predicted Stat Line: 3 receptions, 50 yards, 0 receiving TDs

Week-by-Week Recap

1 Falcons 6 85 1 17.5
2 Patriots 4 37 0 5.7
3 Cowboys 5 61 1 14.6
4 Dolphins 3 35 0 5
5 Vikings 6 68 1 15.8
6 Bye 0 0 0 0
7 Cardinals 7 99 1 19.4
8 49ers 3 28 0 4.3
9 Bills 3 34 0 4.9
10 Rams 4 70 0 9
11 Cardinals 5 78 0 10.3
12 Eagles 9 112 1 21.7
13 Giants 5 80 1 16.5
14 Jets 4 54 0 7.4
15 Redskins 4 60 1 14
16 Rams 3 47 0 6.2
17 49ers 3 50 0 6.5
TOTAL 74 998 7 178.8

2019 stats: 82 receptions, 1,057 receiving yards, 8 receiving TD
2020 prediction: 74 receptions, 998 receiving yards, 7 receiving TD

Lockett should likely put up a similar stat line to his 2019 season, baking in some mild dip in efficiency and further growth from DK Metcalf. Because of the Seahawks’ offensive philosophy, Lockett has a fairly hard cap on targets, which limits his upside. But he should again easily finish as a reliable WR2 in 1/2 PPR leagues and have a safe floor as the top receiving option in Seattle.

You can find our entire 2020 Player Game-By-Game Projection series here.

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Dan Harris is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @danharris80.

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