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FanDuel NFL Value Plays: Week 3 (2020)

Sep 24, 2020

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What a Week 2 we had. Absolutely brutal with all the injuries. The only good side to injuries in the NFL is that we get some good value from it. Let’s take a look at Week 3…

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield (CLE) $7,100 vs. WAS
Mayfield looked like a new quarterback last week in his game against the Bengals, and while the Washington defense is more formidable, their secondary isn’t. The Browns’ improved offensive line should buy Mayfield enough time to pick apart this weak secondary, a secondary that left DeAndre Hopkins uncovered in the end zone last week. This new coaching staff also uses more bootlegs in their gameplan, and Mayfield is much more efficient outside of the pocket.

Running Backs

Jeff Wilson Jr. (SF) $5,200 at NYG
Everyone will be flocking to Jerrick McKinnon as the running back to roster in Week 3, but I’m here to tell you that it’s Jeff Wilson Jr. you’re going to want. Wilson will be used in the red zone and end zone packages, much in the same way he was used last season when this backfield had injuries early in the season. He had four touchdowns in a two-week span last year on a mere 18 carries. The 49ers don’t want to lose McKinnon to another season-ending injury, and they have been limiting his snaps to protect him. They will continue to do that this week and give Wilson Jr. a large portion of the workload.

Joshua Kelley (LAC) $5,900 vs. CAR
Everyone will be flocking to Mike Davis of the Panthers, thinking that he’ll get the same usage as Christian McCaffery in this offense. Meanwhile, I’ll pivot to the other running back in this game, Joshua Kelley, who will get the usage of Joshua Kelley in this offense. Kelley has 35 carries so far this season, good enough to tie him for the sixth-most in the league — more than Aaron Jones. More than Melvin Gordon. And, more than Nick Chubb.

The game script also favors Kelley, as I’d expect the Chargers to be winning this game in the fourth quarter, and they’ll use Kelley to salt away the clock.

Wide Receivers

Darnell Mooney (CHI) $4,800 at ATL
Who? Bear with me. The top four wide receivers last week in terms of snap percentage were Allen Robinson (82%), Darnell Mooney (60%), Javon Wims (45%), and Anthony Miller (40%). You read that right, Mooney, not Miller, was the Bears No. 2 wide receiver last week, and he didn’t do anything to lose that job by scoring one of the two Bears touchdowns. It didn’t help Miller’s cause that he dropped a touchdown, albeit a very difficult catch, but one he should have made.

Mooney is a burner with 4.3 speed, something no other Bears wide receiver can bring to the table, and that’s why he is seeing the field more. He adds an element to the offense that they have been missing. At $4,800, against an Atlanta team that can’t seem to stop anyone through two weeks, I’ll take Mooney.

N’Keal Harry (NE) $5,300 vs. LV
Health is a bit of a concern as I write this, but if Harry is good to go for Week 3, then I think this will be his breakout game. In Week 1 he was starting to break out, but he fumbled the ball out of the end zone, and we know how head coach Bill Belichick feels about players who fumble. In Week 2, he was targetted heavily (12) but just couldn’t get anything out of it, turning it into a mere 72 yards. I’m picking him to have his breakout game at home against the 2-0 Las Vegas Raiders. At $5,300, give me all the N’Keal Harry I can get.

Tight Ends

Drew Sample (CIN) $4,800 at PHI
Sample had seven reception for 45 yards last week in relief of C.J. Uzomah, who is now lost for the season. Rookie quarterback Joe Burrow has targetted a tight end 21 times so far this season. That is one fewer than the team leader in targets, A.J. Green. All of those targets will start going to Sample as the only pass-catching tight end on the team.

The Eagles allowed a touchdown to Washington’s tight end, Logan Thomas, in Week 1, and they gave up three touchdowns to Rams tight end in Week 2. Now it’s Sample’s turn to light up this Eagles secondary.

Defense

ARI Cardinals $3,700 vs. DET
The Cardinals have seven sacks through two games this season, which is good for third behind Washington and the Steelers. The Detriot Lions will give the Cardinals plenty of opportunities to get to Matthew Stafford this week as they like to throw the ball a ton.

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