Welcome to Monkey Knife Fight. Monkey Knife Fight is one of the more intriguing new entrants to the DFS arena. Instead of the traditional salary cap based contests, Monkey Knife Fight allows DFS players to put their fantasy football knowledge and predictive powers to the test.
They offer fantasy point and stat based contests. Perhaps the most appealing of all of their offerings is the over/under (now called ‘more or less’) contests. In these contests you can choose over/under totals for a preset combination of two to 10 players. Your win probability obviously goes down with the more players you add, but you receive an increased payout multiplier in exchange.
Since Monkey Knife Fight’s fantasy point and stat-based totals are dynamic, meaning the total, total type, and pairings change throughout the week, it is important to search for favorable and advantageous total pairings to exploit on a daily basis. Ideally, when choosing a total pairing you want to feel extremely confident on one of the totals, and feel strongly enough about the other total to proceed. This week we will take a look at some of the ‘More’ options that stood out the most for Week 1. Note that these are not locked in pairings, and may no longer be offered by the time you log in to make your picks.
If you have yet to sign up for Monkey Knife Fight, be sure to take advantage of the $10 free play they are offering. Simply sign up through this link, and enter the promo code “GET10FREE”, and enjoy your first contest on your friends at FantasyPros and Monkey Knife Fight.
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Marquise Brown (WR – BAL) – 64.5 receiving yards
Marquise Brown looked ready for prime time in Week 1, hauling in five of his six targets for 101 receiving yards. He is still playing fewer snaps than one would like, but leaving a 5’9, 180 lbs wide receiver out on the field on obvious running downs makes little sense. This week Brown will be matched up primarily against Texans top corner Bradley Roby.
Roby was able to limit yardage against in Week 1, giving up just 33 receiving yards and a touchdown, but allowed five of six targets against to be corralled for a 83.3 completion percentage against. As you can see from my player choices and predictions, big-play threats with modest numbers offer the most intrigue at MonkeyKnifeFight. All it should take is one or two receptions for Brown to hit the 65 receiving yards needed for the more to hit.
Pick: More
Will Fuller (WR – HOU) – 68.5 receiving yards
Will Fuller was highly impressive in his first game as the Texans number one receiver. He hauled in eight of his 10 targets for 112 receiving yards. His 10 targets were double the amount anyone else on the team saw in Week 1, making it clear that Brandin Cooks, at least for now, is a distant number two.
He will have a tough battle in Week 2 against All-Pro level cornerback Marcus Peters. Peters was targeted eight times in coverage, allowing five receptions for a 62.5 percent catch rate. Fuller will be used all over the field against the Ravens, so he won’t have Peters on him for every snap, but Peters could travel with him for most of the game.
Used as more of a deep threat when DeAndre Hopkins was with the team, Fuller saw just three of his Week 1 targets travel more than 15 yards downfield. He should be much more efficient on his own this season, and if he can get close to nine or 10 targets at a 60 percent catch rate, he will be at six receptions. If we multiply that his career-low yards per reception season average that would put him at 82 receiving yards with six receptions and 68.5 with five. Hit the more for Fuller
Pick: More
DeSean Jackson (WR – PHI) – 56.5 receiving yards
DeSean Jackson is slated to have a tough battle on his hands with Jalen Ramsey set to shadow the Eagles explosive receiver. Jackson struggled in Week 1, corralling just two of his seven targets. However, the positive we can take from the outing is that all but one of Jackson’s targets came 19 or more yards downfield. With this type of usage, Jackson may only need to snare two to three balls to hit 57 yards receiving.
Ramsey is going to blanket Jackson on most snaps, but even Ramsey, as elite as he is, cannot keep up with someone with Jackson’s speed on every snap. We saw Amari Cooper catch 10 passes while mostly covered by Ramsey in Week 1, so expecting Jackson to get free for a handful of receptions given seven or more targets sounds fair.
Ramsey himself gave up eight receptions on 11 targets for 81 receiving yards (72.7 completion percentage against) against the Cowboys, suggesting that he still may be rounding into true regular season form. And of course, as we all know, Jackson can get all of this yardage in just one catch. The matchup says less, but the team and scheme scream more.
Pick: More
Miles Sanders (RB – PHI) – 54.5 rushing yards
This is a tough one given the Philadelphia Eagles losses across the offensive line. On one hand, Miles Sanders is the unquestioned feature runner for the Eagles. He has very little in the way of competition for carries, especially after the Eagles chose to release power backs Elijah Holyfield and Michael Warren.
On the other hand, losing Brandon Brooks and Andre Dillard was already devastating enough for Sanders’ weekly rushing upside, but now with Lane Johnson dealing his own injury, there is even more reason for trepidation. With that being said, this line is set very fairly.
Even if Sanders has a low success rate and get stuffed in the backfield on numerous occasions, he will only need a couple of big runs to creep close to the total. The Rams allowed 4.41 yards per carry to Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, relinquishing 102 total rushing yards to the two backs. Sanders looks good for a ‘more’ play.
Pick: More
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.
