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Kyle Yates’ Week 4 Fantasy Projections (2020 Fantasy Football)

by Kyle Yates | @KyleYNFL | Featured Writer
Oct 1, 2020

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There are several things in life that I believe we can point to and say that they are critical at every level of society. From our federal government all the way down to the individual home, I believe there are key elements that need to be in place in order for those cultures to thrive.

One of those elements that I am extremely passionate about is leadership. Let me be clear, good leadership. It’s something that I have seen firsthand how it can change an entire organization or how it can affect the culture within the home.

It’s actually something that I’m so passionate about that it’s what I have my college degree in. I have a Ministry Leadership degree from Moody Bible Institute and it’s something that I get to utilize essentially every day as the leader of my home. I strive to lead my wife and my two year old son well each and every day.

Why am I writing about this in the intro to my weekly fantasy projections article? Because I want to give my readers a glimpse into what makes me tick as a person. You may not care, and that’s fine, but I want to take the time each week to let people know a little bit more about me at the beginning of these articles.

I believe that good leadership is essential and that we need more of it at every level. We need people to rise up and lead with authenticity, vulnerability, and honesty. From the top seat of our government to the place that you call home, there’s a need for these characteristics of a good leader.

Instead of providing some typical and mundane intro to these articles, I want to take this opportunity and deliver authentic conversation. My hope is that it gives you – my readers – a glimpse into who I am and why I do what I do.

With all that being said, it’s time to shift gears and talk some football! We’ve got some great games on the slate this week and there’s a lot to unpack here from a fantasy perspective. Again, as a reminder, the projections below are not meant to be 100% accurate and chasing after what could happen if everything falls the right way. They’re meant to provide the most likely scenario and outcome for the players that you have on your fantasy football roster. These can help us make the most educated decisions when deciding who to plug into our starting lineup and the notes below each player will certainly help to expound on my reasoning for my projections.

Matchup Links: DEN at NYJ | NO at DET | LAC at TB | JAC at CIN | MIN at HOU | SEA at MIA | PIT at TEN | CLE at DAL | ARI at CAR | IND at CHI | BAL at WAS | NYG at LAR | NE at KC | BUF at LVR | PHI at SF | ATL at GB |

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets

Date/Time: October 1, 8:20 pm ET
Odds
: Jets -115
Over/Under: 40.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals
: Jets 20.75, Broncos 19.75

Denver Broncos

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Brett Rypien 20/32 222 1 1 8 0 11.74
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB Melvin Gordon 10 40 1 4 32 0 15.18
RB Royce Freeman 3 12 0 2 14 0 3.48
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR Jerry Jeudy 0 0 0 4 52 0 7.29
WR KJ Hamler 0 0 0 4 42 0 5.92
WR Tim Patrick 0 0 0 2 22 0 3.04
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE Noah Fant 0 0 0 4 48 1 12.72

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New York Jets

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Sam Darnold 19/29 196 2 1 13 0 15.14
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB Frank Gore 20 79 1 1 5 0 14.7
RB Lamical Perine 4 18 0 1 8 0 3.07
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR Jamison Crowder 0 0 0 6 60 1 14.86
WR Chris Hogan 0 0 0 3 39 0 5.55
WR Braxton Berrios 0 0 0 3 26 0 4.04
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE Chris Herndon 0 0 0 3 31 1 10.44

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Quarterback

Denver: Rypien gets the nod as the starting QB for Thursday Night Football, but he’s not someone that we should be looking at for fantasy purposes this week.

New York: Darnold continuously pops off a play that reminds us of his top-end talent, but he simply has no help on this team. The coaching, the offensive line, the running backs, the receivers, etc. are all subpar and Darnold simply can’t carry an entire organization by himself. Even though this Broncos defense has been decimated with injuries, which would make Darnold an appealing streaming option, you can’t plug him into your lineup this week.

Running Backs

Denver: Gordon was stifled in week three by the stout Buccaneers run defense and he should have some more room to run in this one. However, this offense looks atrocious without Drew Lock and Gordon’s not going to be in very many scoring opportunities, which is what has inflated his fantasy value up to this point. Gordon’s a low-end RB2 due to his workload, but he might not be anything more than that this week.

New York: Gore keeps seeing the work on the ground, but this offense simply isn’t good enough to put him in scoring opportunities that would vault him into RB3 consideration. Gore can be viewed as a RB4 this week and every week moving forward.

Wide Receivers

Denver: Jeudy was dealing with injuries coming into Sunday’s game against the Bucs, but he was able to battle through and put up a respectable fantasy stat line with 5-55-0. Moving forward though, this offense isn’t going to be able to move the ball much with its quarterback situation. Jeudy should be looked at as a FLEX option for the foreseeable future until Lock returns to the lineup. Hamler has the talent to be a valuable fantasy asset down the line, but with the Broncos QB situation, it’s best to avoid Hamler for fantasy purposes right now.

New York: Crowder apparently appears to be trending up and he’s going to suit up for this game on Thursday Night Football. However, it doesn’t sound like he’s going to be at 100%. The Jets desperately need him though, which could put him back on the fantasy radar as a WR4 in Full PPR leagues. When he’s fully healthy, he’s a locked-and-loaded WR3 every sing week due to the target volume. However, we have to assume that he’s playing banged up and there’s risk associated with him because of that. He gets downgraded to a WR4 because of it. Otherwise, there aren’t any other receiving options on the Jets that you should be looking to play this week.

Tight Ends

Denver: Fant takes a hit with the QB situation, like the rest of the offense, but he’s still worth rolling out as a low-end TE1 based on the target volume. He saw ten targets last week and there’s no reason to doubt that he won’t see somewhere around that again in this one.

New York: Herndon’s seeing a decent amount of targets each week, but it’s not turning into much. He’s nothing more than a low-end TE2.

FantasyProjection Buster: Crowder’s going to play and push through it, so he gets the majority of the targets in my projections. However, if he’s on a snap count or gets re-injured, there’s very little chance that he reaches those target totals.

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New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions

Date/Time: October 4, 1:00 pm ET
Odds
: Saints -200
Over/Under: 54 points
Implied Vegas point totals
: Saints 29, Lions 25

New Orleans Saints

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Drew Brees 23/32 256 2 0 1 0 18.35
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB Alvin Kamara 12 55 1 6 52 1 25.88
RB Latavius Murray 16 67 1 3 18 0 15.72
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR Michael Thomas 0 0 0 6 74 1 16.58
WR Tre’Quan Smith 0 0 0 3 43 0 5.76
WR Emmanuel Sanders 0 0 0 3 33 0 4.65
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE Jared Cook 0 0 0 2 36 0 4.79

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Detroit Lions

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Matthew Stafford 22/35 256 2 1 5 0 16.72
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB Adrian Peterson 14 64 1 1 10 0 13.97
RB D’Andre Swift 2 10 0 2 16 0 3.57
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR Kenny Golladay 0 0 0 5 70 1 15.55
WR Marvin Jones 0 0 0 3 38 0 5.36
WR Danny Amendola 0 0 0 3 29 0 4.41
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE TJ Hockenson 0 0 0 4 49 1 12.96

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Quarterback

New Orleans: Brees bounced back from a fantasy perspective last week against the Packers and he now gets another nice matchup here against the Lions defense. While the matchup looks enticing for the passing game, it’s the running game that should flourish for New Orleans. Brees might not see the necessary opportunity to finish within the top-12 at the QB position this week, which puts him into the streaming conversation. He’s a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 in this one.

Detroit: Stafford was in a perfect position last week to go off against the Cardinals defense, but he didn’t exactly deliver the biggest performance in a plus matchup. Now, he gets a tougher matchup here against the Saints. While having Golladay back certainly helps, Stafford falls outside the streaming conversation in this one. He’s a mid-range QB2 this week.

Running Backs

New Orleans: Kamara is unstoppable right now. There’s no other way to put it. He’s dominating out of the backfield as a receiver and is arguably the best fantasy asset in the game right now. He’s an every single week must-start option, but in this matchup, he could go nuclear yet again. He’s a lock for top-5 production. Murray hasn’t found the end zone yet this season, but he’s clearly a part of this Saints offensive game plan. While he’s not going to be a dominant fantasy option unless he scores, Murray should easily see plenty of scoring opportunities in this game. He’s a fine RB3 start this week with upside.

Detroit: Peterson saw the majority of the work last week in a plus matchup, but it still didn’t turn into anything crazy from a fantasy perspective. Moving forward, he’s probably the RB to roster in this backfield, but this is a tough matchup for opposing RBs. AP is nothing more than a RB3 in this game. With Peterson taking over this backfield, there’s little left over for Johnson and Swift. Neither of them can be trusted anywhere near your starting lineup this week.

Wide Receivers

New Orleans: Sanders was able to cash in last week and find the end zone, but he’s still not seeing the target totals that should give fantasy managers confidence to roll him out in their starting lineups as anything more than a low-end WR3 week in and week out. In a game script that should favor the Saints running backs, the ceiling simply isn’t there for Sanders this week. He’s a touchdown-dependent WR4 against the Lions. Smith has been irrelevant for the majority of his young career in New Orleans, but he’s starting to carve out a nice role for himself on this team. While he didn’t have as big of a game in week three as he did in week two, Smith is still heavily involved in this offense. He’s a fine FLEX play this week against the Lions secondary.

Detroit: Golladay reminded people why he was being drafted as a top-12 receiver this past week in his first game action coming off of his hamstring injury. He had a nice day by going 6-57-1 on 7 targets and should be viewed as a low-end WR1 moving forward from a season-long perspective. In this matchup though, Golladay falls just outside top-12 consideration on the week. Golladay’s a solid WR2 this week with upside for more if he finds the end zone again. Jones wasn’t able to step up as much as fantasy managers would have liked in Golladay’s absence and he now seems like he’s going to be a touchdown-dependent WR3 moving forward. In this matchup, Jones should be viewed as a low-end WR3/high-end WR4.

Tight Ends

New Orleans:

Detroit: Hockenson has been a steady fantasy option through the first three weeks of the season. He’s stepping up as the second option in this offense behind Golladay and should be viewed as a low-end TE1 every single week moving forward. His ceiling may be limited in this matchup against the Saints, but he’s shown next to nothing for you to remove him from your starting lineup.

FantasyProjection Buster: I’ve been optimistic about Murray every week this season, but it has yet to work out. However, in this matchup, it’s hard to see how the Saints lean on Brees and the passing game versus taking advantage of the Lions’ weakness on the ground. Murray needs to score to reach my projection totals for him.

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Los Angeles Chargers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date/Time: October 4, 1:00 pm ET
Odds
: Bucs -315
Over/Under: 43.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals
: Bucs 25.5, Chargers 18

Los Angeles Chargers

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Justin Herbert 28/42 294 2 2 10 0 16.77
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB Austin Ekeler 12 48 0 7 60 1 20.53
RB Joshua Kelley 11 41 0 2 18 0 7
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR Keenan Allen 0 0 0 8 99 1 20.08
WR Mike Williams 0 0 0 3 42 0 5.82
WR Jalen Guyton 0 0 0 1 15 0 2.08
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE Hunter Henry 0 0 0 6 60 0 9.01

__________

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Tom Brady 21/35 246 2 1 1 0 15.96
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB Ronald Jones 17 70 1 2 17 0 15.66
RB LeSean McCoy 5 18 0 2 15 0 4.46
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR Mike Evans 0 0 0 5 77 1 16.19
WR Scott Miller 0 0 0 3 33 0 4.76
WR Justin Watson 0 0 0 2 24 0 3.43
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE Rob Gronkowski 0 0 0 4 47 1 12.9

__________

Quarterback

Los Angeles: Herbert’s providing more fantasy value to his receiving options than Tyrod Taylor did in week one, which is good news for those who invested in the Chargers offense. However, Herbert’s still learning the ropes and isn’t on the redraft streaming radar just yet. He’s expected to start in this game, but this is a tough matchup. Herbert can remain on your league’s waiver wire.

Tampa Bay: Brady was able to finish as a top-10 fantasy option at the QB position in week three, but he gets a tough matchup here against the Chargers defense. The Chargers are only allowing 19.8 fantasy points on average to opposing QBs and Brady is most likely going to be without his main receiving option Chris Godwin this week. Brady’s still worth starting in 2QB formats, but he falls outside top-12 consideration this week.

Running Backs

Los Angeles: Ekeler delivered like many predicted last week against the Panthers and he appears like he’s back to being one of the main target options in this offense. Ekeler saw 11 targets in week three and finished as the RB5 on the week. He’s a locked-and-loaded low-end RB1 every single week moving forward if he continues to get the target volume that he’s been seeing recently. While this is a tough matchup for RBs, Ekeler’s still worth starting confidently. Kelley was in a prime position to explode last week, but the game-script didn’t exactly go the way that many (including Vegas) expected. The Panthers were +6.5 underdogs in that game and they outright won it, which eliminated the rushing potential for Kelley. In week two, when the Chargers were playing with the lead, Kelley saw 51% of the Chargers offensive snaps. However, in week three, he was only on the field for 30%. If the Chargers aren’t controlling the game-script, Kelley loses his overall upside. In a matchup against a solid Bucs defense, Kelley’s more of a FLEX play this week than an upside play at the position.

Tampa Bay: This backfield gives me headaches. After being essentially benched in week two and seeing Fournette put up a dominant performance, Jones was back to being the main option out of the backfield for this offense. Jones played 52% of the Bucs offensive snaps and saw 15 total touches to Fournette’s nine. However, Fournette now appears to be doubtful for this game against the Chargers stout run defense. Jones receives a significant bump up with Fournette’s absence, but it’s not going to be enough to be more than a low-end RB2 in a tough matchup.

Wide Receivers

Los Angeles: Welcome back, Keenan Allen! With Herbert behind center, Allen has jumped back into top-tier fantasy relevance and should continue to dominate moving forward. Allen saw 19 total targets on Sunday and finished as the WR4 on the week. Allen was always a solid option for your fantasy lineups, but he’s now moving into must-start consideration based on his involvement in this offense. The Bucs are a pretty stingy defense when it comes to locking down opposing WRs, but Allen’s seeing too many targets to not plug into your lineup as a solid WR2 with upside. Williams was an enticing add off the waiver wire to begin the season, but it appears that he does not have the chemistry with Herbert that’s going to warrant him getting the necessary targets for fantasy football. Williams is still a hold, if you can, for when Tyrod comes back into the lineup. Taylor was willing to push the ball downfield more Williams’ way and he could become a nice FLEX option again when that happens. Until then though, he can’t be trusted in your starting lineup.

Tampa Bay: With the news that Godwin is out for this matchup, Evans becomes a solid WR2 option. While the matchup isn’t great for opposing WRs, Chris Harris Jr. is expected to miss some time with an injury, which weakens this secondary. Casey Heyward should line up across from Evans, which limits his overall ceiling, but the targets should be there to be a solid option this week. Miller becomes an intriguing play this week by default. If Godwin misses this week, which all signs point to that happening, then Miller could be in line for a significant number of targets. It’s not the best matchup, but Miller should be a fine option to roll out as a low-end WR3 in Full PPR formats. Watson looks like he’s going to be able to suit up for this game, but it’s a tough matchup for him. He’s not worth looking at for fantasy football this week.

Tight Ends

Los Angeles: Henry’s seeing enough work with Herbert behind center to be a reliable low-end TE1 every week moving forward. He’ll need to find the end zone to finish as a top-tier option, but he can be confidently started this week.

Tampa Bay: It’s a coin flip as to which Tampa Bay tight end is going to produce on a weekly basis, but it looks like Gronkowski might be the one to bet on moving forward. Gronk saw a significant increase in his snap percentages last week to 93%, which bodes well for his fantasy outlook. If Gronk is on the field, especially in a matchup that Godwin will miss, he’s a fine option to roll out there as a high-end TE2. Howard’s fantasy outlook was trending upwards to start the season, but he appears to be taking a back seat to Gronk. Howard has seen his snap percentages stay around 50%, while Gronk’s have risen exponentially. He’ll still see a few targets each week due to the offensive structure, but Howard might be more of a low-end TE2 now than anything else.

FantasyProjection Buster: Evans has a tough matchup in front of him, but I expect him to be force fed targets. However, the Chargers DBs could shut him down and prevent him from reaching those high marks.

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals

Date/Time: October 4, 1:00 pm ET
Odds
: Bengals -157
Over/Under: 49 points
Implied Vegas point totals
: Bengals 26, Jaguars 20

Jacksonville Jaguars

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Gardner Minshew 24/37 260 2 1 26 0 18.99
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB James Robinson 16 62 1 4 27 0 16.9
RB Chris Thompson 2 9 0 2 20 0 4.15
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR DJ Chark 0 0 0 5 58 1 14.11
WR Keelan Cole 0 0 0 5 55 1 14.05
WR Laviska Shenault 0 0 0 3 41 0 5.85
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE Tyler Eifert 0 0 0 2 23 0 3.57

__________

Cincinnati Bengals

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Joe Burrow 25/40 263 2 0 22 0 20.69
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB Joe Mixon 17 68 1 2 19 0 15.93
RB Giovani Bernard 2 8 0 4 28 0 5.64
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR AJ Green 0 0 0 6 75 1 16.61
WR Tee Higgins 0 0 0 4 60 1 14.21
WR Tyler Boyd 0 0 0 6 67 0 9.76
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE Drew Sample 0 0 0 1 14 0 2.09

__________

Quarterback

Jacksonville: Minshew wasn’t exactly great last week, but that hasn’t been the normal style of play that we’ve seen from him previously. This is a plus matchup for him against the Bengals defense that currently can’t stop anyone essentially and he should bounce back to being a high-end QB2 this week.

Cincinnati: Burrow has thrown the ball 105 times over the past two weeks. With that workload, Burrow instantly becomes a borderline QB1 by default. While his offensive line hasn’t been able to slow down anyone, which means Burrow’s getting knocked around like nobody’s business, he’s still succeeding and has thrown five touchdowns to zero interceptions the last two weeks. In this matchup against the Jaguars defense that is currently allowing the 6th most points to opposing QBs, Burrow’s a low-end QB1 this week. Fire him up with confidence.

Running Backs

Jacksonville: Robinson has emerged onto the scene in a big way so far this season and he’s solidified himself as a solid RB2 option week in and week out for your roster. However, in this matchup, Robinson should be viewed as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2. The Bengals are currently allowing 26.8 fantasy points on average to opposing RBs and Robinson is incredibly involved in both the ground and receiving game. He should see a significant workload in this one and the matchup indicates that he can be plugged into your lineup with confidence.

Cincinnati: Mixon currently ranks sixth in the entire NFL in terms of carries, but he has yet to find the end zone on the season. Now, he gets a matchup against the Jaguars defense that is currently ranked middle of the pack for opposing RBs. Mixon should see plenty of opportunity yet again in this game and it’s as good of a matchup as any for him to finally cross into the end zone. He’s a low-end RB1 start this week.

Wide Receivers

Jacksonville: Chark has been limited in practice so far this week, but might still play this week. If he does, he’s considered a high-end WR3 in this matchup. Cole should be viewed as a solid WR3 moving forward. Shenault is going to be utilized all over the formation and should see enough targets to be relevant, but not quite enough to be considered anything more than a FLEX play.

Cincinnati: Green has continued to see a ton of targets and is currently on pace for 149 over the course of the season. However, he’s simply not producing with them as he gets re-acclimated to the NFL after being off for a year. This is a great matchup for him, but until we see Green start converting these targets into fantasy points, he’s nothing more than a WR3 each week. Boyd had a tough matchup last week, but he was able to put up a fantastic fantasy day by going for 10-125-0 on 13 targets against the Eagles. He’s a consistent low-end WR2 moving forward and he could explode in this matchup lining up across from D.J. Hayden, who is currently getting torched in coverage this season. Higgins was a great fantasy option last week with John Ross being a surprise healthy inactive on Sunday morning. Higgins saw 9 targets last week and went 5-40-2 with them. Moving forward, Higgins will continue to see the second – maybe even third – best coverage from opposing defenses, which gives him an incredible opportunity each week. The 33rd overall pick in this past year’s draft has an excellent opportunity in front of him now and he could be rolled out as a high-upside FLEX play this week against the Jaguars.

Tight Ends

Jacksonville: Eifert has seen some targets in this offense, but it hasn’t been enough to warrant streaming consideration this week. Even though it’s a plus matchup, Eifert isn’t on the redraft radar.

Cincinnati: None of the Bengals TEs are worth considering for fantasy football this week.

FantasyProjection Buster: Higgins is an intriguing option to monitor and he could easily find the end zone in a nice matchup. Or he could see his usage disappear to either Boyd or Green. It’s very difficult to project this offense right now and I went on the optimistic side with Higgins.

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