New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs

Date/Time: October 4, 4:25 pm ET
Odds: Chiefs -286
Over/Under: 53 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Chiefs 29.5, Patriots 23

New England Patriots

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Kansas City Chiefs

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Quarterback

New England: Newton finished outside the top-24 QBs last week, but the Patriots simply didn’t need him and his rushing ability to win that game against the Raiders. Burkhead stole the show and the touchdown opportunities simply weren’t there for Newton. However, the Patriots are going to need Newton in this matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Patriots are going to be forced to throw the ball more than normal and we could see Newton hit the kind of numbers that he did in week two against Seattle. Newton’s a no-brainer start every single week and the last performance should be shrugged off. Newton will get back on track in this one as a mid-range QB1.

Kansas City: Mahomes is unstoppable. Even in a tough matchup against Baltimore, Mahomes made it look easy and was slinging the ball all over the field on Monday night. With this matchup, Mahomes should be viewed as a top-5 option. As we’ve seen, he has the chance to single-handedly win you a week and he’s in your starting lineup every single time.

Running Backs

New England: Burkhead had a monstrous game last week, but it looks like that might be a one-time occurrence. This Patriots backfield just got a whole lot more messy than it normally is with White’s return to the team. It’s a good sign that he’s back and it’ll be good to see him on the field this week, but it doesn’t help us try to navigate this backfield for fantasy purposes. With Michel, Burkhead, White, JJ Taylor, and maybe even Damien Harris now on this active roster, there’s no way of knowing who will be receiving the majority of the carries. The only player that you should be looking to roll out is White as a solid RB3 option that gets a boost in Full PPR formats. The Patriots are going to need to throw the ball more this week, which means a great opportunity for White out of the backfield as a receiver. Otherwise, it’s going to be in your best interest to leave the other options on your bench.

Kansas City: Edwards-Helaire certainly hasn’t been as efficient on the ground the past couple of weeks as he was in week one against Houston, but he’s seeing significant work out of the backfield as a receiver. This provides a safe floor every single week and he’s someone that you can confidently roll out as a low-end RB1 in this matchup.

Wide Receivers

New England: Edelman is a fantastic play this week due to the projected game-script. If the Patriots are forced to throw the ball more, like they had to in week two against Seattle, Edelman should be in line for 8+ targets again. In games where the Pats aren’t going to need Edelman, it’s probably wise to sit him. But in these types of matchups, you need to plug him into your lineup due to the target volume he could easily see. Edelman’s a solid high-end WR3 this week with upside. Harry hasn’t exactly been getting it done from a fantasy perspective, but he should be in line for a significant workload in this game. The Patriots are going to need to throw the ball and Harry could see 6+ targets, which puts him in the FLEX conversation. He has yet to find the end zone this season, so the upside might not be there, but if you’re looking for a solid FLEX play, Harry’s worth looking at in this one.

Kansas City: Hill’s scored a touchdown in every single game so far this season and he may very well continue that streak this week. As long as Mahomes is behind center in Kansas City, Hill belongs in your starting lineup as a locked-and-loaded WR1. Watkins’ availability was in question going into last week’s game, but he was able to clear concussion protocol and put up fine numbers in a tough matchup. Watkins is seeing enough targets (eight last week) to be viewed as a safe FLEX option in this matchup. While the Patriots corners are a tough test, this offense simply has too much speed downfield, which opens things up in the intermediate passing game for Watkins. He should soak up targets yet again and he’s been consistent so far this season. He can be viewed as a low-end WR3/FLEX play this week. Hardman was able to see six targets last week and reel in four of them for 81 yards and a touchdown. However, his usage is always going to be up and down. He’s not seeing enough snaps to be considered reliable for fantasy football, which puts him into the FLEX conversation only in deep leagues. He always has the potential to secure a deep throw from Mahomes and take it in for six, but there’s always the possibility that he comes out and doesn’t see any targets at all. He’s a boom-or-bust WR5 this week.

Tight Ends

New England: None of the Patriots tight ends should be considered for fantasy football this week.

Kansas City: Kelce’s practically unstoppable in this offense and he’s secured his spot as the overall TE1 on the season through three weeks. You start Kelce every single week in fantasy and you don’t even have to think twice about it.

FantasyProjection Buster: Hardman showed up last week, but his snap count is too up-and-down to trust. He could always pop off a big play or he could only see one target.

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Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders

Date/Time: October 4, 4:25 pm ET
Odds: Bills -150
Over/Under: 52.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Bills 27.75, Raiders 24.75

Buffalo Bills

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Las Vegas Raiders

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Quarterback

Buffalo: Allen’s on fire this season and that should not stop anytime soon. The Raiders won’t be able to slow down Allen and this Bills offense, which means that he needs to be viewed as a top-tier option yet again. Start him every single week moving forward.

Las Vegas: Carr’s put together some decent numbers on the season so far, but it hasn’t been enough to vault him into the streaming conversation. With some injuries at the WR position, Carr’s better left on your waiver wire for the time being.

Running Backs

Buffalo: Moss should return to the lineup this week after missing Sunday’s game with a toe injury. Against a Raiders defense that is currently the best matchup in the NFL for opposing fantasy RBs, Moss is a smash play if he’s healthy. Moss is in a dynamic offense that should be able to put points up on the board and he’s going to see some goal line opportunity in this one. He’s a solid low-end RB2 for your lineup this week. Singletary delivered on his opportunity in week three and was able to total 121 yards last week against the Rams. While Singletary doesn’t have elite upside due to his inability to punch the ball in from the goal line. That’s just simply not his skillset in the NFL. He’s best utilized out in space and as a change-of-pace back. Singletary moves back to a low-end RB2 with Moss returning to the lineup this week.

Las Vegas: Jacobs was reportedly dealing with an injury last week, but he still managed to put up respectable yardage on the ground against a good defense. This is another tough matchup for Jacobs, but he’s simply seeing too much work on the ground to be downgraded for fantasy purposes. As long as Jacobs is healthy and on the field, he’s in your starting lineup. You can view him as a low-end RB1 yet again this week.

Wide Receivers

Buffalo: Diggs is turning into an every week must-start option with the way that this offense is performing. Although Diggs only saw six targets last week, he could have very easily had multiple touchdowns in that matchup. The Raiders are going to be asking Trayvon Mullen – who plays 92% of the snaps on the left side and does not move over to the right – or Isaiah Johnson to guard Diggs with Damon Arnette battling an injury and likely to miss this game. With John Brown missing practice recently and dealing with a calf injury, Diggs could be heavily targeted in this matchup. Diggs is a locked-and-loaded WR2 this week with WR1 upside. Beasley benefits immensely if Brown does indeed miss this game with his injury. Last week, Beasley put up 100 yards receiving and should be viewed as a solid WR4 in this matchup. If you’re in need of a fill-in option at WR this week, Beasley’s a fine option to roll in and get a safe floor out of in this matchup. However, with Brown returning to practice, that gets a slight downgrade. Davis burst onto the scene last week with a great game, but he’s the third receiving option in this offense. He should be viewed as a WR5 this week and that’s only if Brown misses time.

Las Vegas: Edwards has been officially ruled out for this game, while Ruggs is dealing with his own injuries and is considered a long shot to play. Nelson Agholor and Zay Jones should get some playing time in this one, but they’re not worth looking at as reliable fantasy assets. However, Renfrow is an intriguing WR3 play this week based on his opportunity. Not only are the other two starting wideouts out this week, but Buffalo is currently bleeding fantasy points to slot receivers through the first three weeks of the season. They’ve allowed Crowder, Gesicki, and Kupp to each score a touchdown and go over 100 yards. Renfrow is a sneaky play in leagues this week and he could easily return WR3 value or higher.

Tight Ends

Buffalo: None of the Buffalo tight ends are worth looking at for fantasy this week.

Las Vegas: Waller came back down to earth last week against the Patriots, but he should jump right back to being a top-tier option against Buffalo. With the Raiders down reliable receiving threats on the outside, Carr is going to pepper Waller and Renfrow with targets this week. Waller should be viewed as a mid-range TE1 this week.

FantasyProjection Buster: Brown’s return to practice certainly plays a huge part in my projections for this receiver room. If Brown misses this week though, Beasley and Diggs would both be in line for big days.

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Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers

Date/Time: October 4, 8:20 pm ET
Odds: 49ers -286
Over/Under: 46 points
Implied Vegas point totals: 49ers 26.5, Eagles 19.5

Philadelphia Eagles

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San Francisco 49ers

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Quarterback

Philadelphia: Wentz has been bad to start the season. No, seriously, he’s been awful. He currently has a 59.8% completion rate on 132 passes, he has three touchdowns to six interceptions, and he’s only averaging 5.6 yards per attempt. This offensive line has not done him any favors and he has a revolving door at receiver, but these numbers are simply not what we’ve come to expect from Wentz. He can’t be trusted anywhere near your starting lineup right now even though he saved his fantasy day last week with a rushing touchdown. The performance just simply isn’t at the level that it needs to be to be for Wentz to be considered reliable.

San Francisco: Mullens shocked me last week with how well he was able to perform and execute the 49ers offense. The shocking thing was that the 49ers threw the ball way more than I was anticipating. I expected them to run the ball over and over again and take the ball out of Mullens’ hands, which would limit his overall fantasy day. However, they trusted him and he came through with a big performance against an average defense. This week though, it’s going to be hard to rely on Mullens as a streaming option. This Eagles defense is one of the tougher matchups for opposing fantasy QBs and Mullens should be under duress all game long with this Eagles defensive front. He’s a low-end QB2 in this matchup.

Running Backs

Philadelphia: Sanders was in a perfect spot to go off last week against the Bengals run defense, but he failed to crack the top-20 at the RB position for fantasy. He was effective on the ground, but just wasn’t able to find the end zone. Now, he gets a tougher matchup against the 49ers defense. Even though they’ve lost several pieces to their defensive line, they’re still a respectable unit and should give Wentz and the Eagles offense fits all game long. Sanders is more of a RB2 in this matchup than a locked-and-loaded RB1.

San Francisco: McKinnon looked great last week and was a solid fantasy option, but he left the game early with an injury. As of the time of writing, there has not been any additional news on McKinnon’s injury status and whether or not he’ll be ready to go for Sunday Night Football. If he plays, he should see enough work in the receiving game to return low-end RB2 value. If McKinnon is not able to suit up, Wilson would be the next man up and would inherit the majority of McKinnon’s work in the receiving game. However, this matchup is not kind to opposing fantasy RBs and Wilson didn’t exactly do much with his work on the ground last week. Wilson should be viewed as a RB3 if McKinnon plays that gets a slight bump up to low-end RB2 if McKinnon is not able to suit up.

Wide Receivers

Philadelphia: Jackson’s been in prime positions all season long to step up and be a solid FLEX option for fantasy purposes, but he’s in and out of the lineup too much during the game to be relied on any further. Jackson was down to only 31% of the Eagles offensive snaps last week due to a nagging injury, which hurt fantasy managers that rolled him out in a plus matchup. Even if Jackson plays this week, which isn’t looking likely right now, he’s nothing more than a boom-or-bust WR4 play. With the injuries surrounding him on this Eagles depth chart, Ward becomes an intriguing start based on necessity. He’s going to see targets with Reagor out, Jeffery most likely not coming back yet, and Jackson likely out for this week. He could easily match his 11 targets that he saw last week and that’s too much opportunity to ignore for fantasy football. If you lost one of the players in the Pittsburgh & Tennessee matchup, Ward’s a fantastic fill-in option.

San Francisco: Aiyuk was a hot waiver wire pickup, but this isn’t the greatest matchup to roll him into your lineup confidently. Darius Slay could be looking to shadow Aiyuk and force Mullens to beat them somewhere else, which doesn’t bode well for his fantasy outlook. Additionally, Kittle’s return to the lineup limits Aiyuk’s target upside. Kyle Shanahan will scheme ways to get the ball in Aiyuk’s hand, but he’s nothing more than a FLEX play this week in this matchup. Otherwise, there aren’t any other wide receivers on San Francisco that you should be rushing out to start this week.

Tight Ends

Philadelphia: Ertz is again the sole option in this TE room with Goedert’s injury. Goedert will miss some time and Ertz should get back to being peppered with targets in this offense. With all the uncertainty surrounding the other receiving options in Philadelphia, Ertz moves back into top-5 consideration at the TE position for fantasy football. Even with Wentz playing terrible football, Ertz is simply going to see too much opportunity to not roll into your starting lineup.

San Francisco: Kittle is back this week! With that news, fantasy managers everywhere breathe a huge sigh of relief. The 49ers offense desperately needs Kittle back on the field and he should be force fed targets in his first week back in action. He’s a top-5 option this week.

FantasyProjection Buster: Aiyuk can easily prove my projections wrong with Shanahan’s creativity and ability to get the ball in his hands.

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Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers

Date/Time: October 5, 8:15 pm ET
Odds: Packers -335
Over/Under: 56.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Packers 32, Falcons 24.5

Atlanta Falcons

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Green Bay Packers

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Quarterback

Atlanta: Ryan was held in check last week by the Bears defense, but he should bounce back to a top-tier fantasy QB in this matchup. The Packers are currently middle-of-the-pack against opposing fantasy QBs, but this game has all the makings of a shootout. In what Vegas is predicting to be a high-scoring affair, Ryan’s in an excellent spot to finish as a mid-range QB1 this week. Fire him up with confidence this week.

Green Bay: Rodgers has been playing lights out so far this year and he now gets a matchup against the Falcons defense that is allowing the most fantasy points on average to opposing QBs. Rodgers could take a back seat to what should be a monstrous game from Jones, but there will be more than enough opportunity for Rodgers to finish as a top-tier option this week. Fire him up as a mid-range QB1 this week with absurd upside.

Running Backs

Atlanta: Gurley is still seeing enough work to be relied upon as a consistent RB2, but that may all be changing here soon. Last week, the Falcons offense made it a point to get Hill more involved and Gurley saw his snap count dip down because of it. Gurley went from playing 63% of the snaps in week two to only 51% in week three. This is still high-powered enough of an offense that Gurley deserves to be started each week as a low-end RB2, but it’s something to monitor moving forward. Hill is seeing more work in this offense, but it’s not enough yet to warrant plugging him into your starting lineup with confidence.

Green Bay: Jones is the only Green Bay RB that you should be considering this week and he’s set to explode in this matchup. The Packers are going to be frequent visitors of the red zone in this one and Jones should see plenty of scoring opportunities. There’s no reason to not view Jones as a top-5 option at the RB position this week.

Wide Receivers

Atlanta: There’s no clarity at the time of writing on whether or not Jones is going to be active for this game. The extra day of rest certainly helps though. I expect Jones to suit up in this one and, if he does, he should be viewed as a low-end WR1. Points are going to go up on the board in this matchup and Jones has an excellent chance of exploding with lining up against Kevin King. King’s a fine corner, but he’s not going to be able to slow down Julio. Obviously, it’s important to monitor the practice reports as the week progresses, but if he’s practicing in full by Friday, he’s a lock for your starting lineup. Even if Julio sits, Ridley’s a must-start option yet again this week. Despite not scoring in week three, Ridley is still the WR1 on the season. In a shootout matchup, Ridley deserves to be plugged into your lineup as a WR1, regardless of Julio’s status. Gage left last week’s matchup early, which crushed the hopes that many fantasy managers had for him with Julio out of the lineup. This week, there’s no clarity yet on Gage’s status. If he plays, he can be rolled out as a WR4 in Full PPR leagues that should soak up targets. However, it’s possible that we do see him sit this one out.

Green Bay: As of right now, we don’t have clarity on whether or not Adams is going to suit up for this game. If he plays, he’s an automatic start and can be fired up as a top-tier WR1. However, we’ll need to monitor the practice reports as the week progresses to know more about his status. I do expect him to play though after an extended period of rest. If Adams does not play, Lazard moves up into borderline top-24 status. However, even if Adams does play, Lazard should still be in your starting lineups as a solid WR3. He’s not going to see the target totals that he did in week three, but he always has the chance to score. In a matchup that Vegas predicts to be high-scoring, Lazard’s an extremely enticing play this week.

Tight Ends

Atlanta: Hurst wasn’t crazy involved in the offense last week, but he saved his fantasy day by finding the end zone. The Packers have been a stingy defense when it comes to opposing tight ends, but Hurst should see enough work in a high-scoring matchup to return TE1 value yet again this week. He’s a solid low-end TE1 against the Packers.

Green Bay: Tonyan has been getting involved in this offense, but he’s nothing more than a TE2 this week.

FantasyProjection Buster: Jones could end up playing this week, but he still might not be 100%. If that’s the case, we could see him fall short of my projections and disappoint fantasy managers.

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Kyle Yates is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @KyleYNFL.