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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy: Wednesday (1/20)

Jan 20, 2021

With Jusuf Nurkic and C.J. McCollum out, Damian Lillard’s sky-high usage should be even higher.

After a small slate on Tuesday, we’re back at it here. We have a full 10-game ledger, and that’s a lovely sight for DFS players after that ugly Tuesday slate. The Washington-Charlotte game has been postponed, though, but going from 11 to 10 games helps eliminate a bit of the field. There’s a lot to talk about, so let’s go ahead and get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Most Value Per Dollar

Players expected to generate the most value relative to salary.

Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Damian Lillard (POR) vs. MEM $10,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Ja Morant (MEM) at POR $7,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Cole Anthony (ORL) at MIN $5,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • With all of the injuries in Portland, Lillard is definitely going to be in our studs section. Morant will follow him there as well.
  • Anthony has been taking most of the starting point guard minutes in Orlando with Markelle Fultz injured, and that makes him an interesting option against the second-worst defense in the NBA.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
James Harden (BKN) at CLE $10,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Victor Oladipo (HOU) vs. PHO $7,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Delon Wright (DET) at ATL $5,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • Harden is rolling in Brooklyn, and we’ll discuss that more later.
  • Oladipo is the man in Houston because of the Harden trade, which was certainly evident when Victor dropped 54 DK points in his Rockets debut.
  • Wright has been playing about 30 minutes a night over the last week, and if he does that against Atlanta, we have to like him at this price.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Kawhi Leonard (LAC) vs. SAC $9,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jerami Grant (DET) at ATL $7,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jeff Green (BKN) at CLE $4,300 ⭐⭐⭐ High

 

  • Kawhi gets to face the worst defense in the NBA here, and that’ll earn him a spot in the studs section.
  • Grant has been one of the most consistent players in the NBA, scoring at least 31 DK points in every game en route to a 42-point average.
  • It looks like Green is going to play big minutes for this short Brooklyn rotation, and that alone makes him worth a shot at just $4,300.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Domantas Sabonis (IND) vs. DAL $9,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Draymond Green (GS) vs. SAS $5,400 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Robert Covington (POR) vs. MEM $5,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • Sabonis is averaging 49.3 DK points per game for the season and should do even better with Myles Turner injured.
  • Green has been a little better recently, and he’s typically a $7,000 player when he’s right. He’s actually scored at least 31 fantasy points in three of his last four games, and that’s all you can ask for from someone this cheap.
  • With C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic injured, Covington will have to take more shots, minutes, and usage. Look for his average to steadily rise along with his price.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Nikola Vucevic (ORL) at MIN $8,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Enes Kanter (POR) vs. MEM $6,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
DeAndre Jordan (BKN) at CLE $5,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • Vucevic is one of the best players in fantasy right now, and we’ll discuss that more in the next section.
  • Kanter is starting for Nurkic and is averaging nearly 40 DK points per game in this role.
  • Jordan has played a lot more since the Jarrett Allen trade, averaging 28 DK points per game in the three games since.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • James Harden (BKN) $10,900: Many people were worried about Harden when he ended his Houston reign with a couple of duds, but his early results with Brooklyn show that he’s the same old guy. In his first two games with the Nets, Harden is averaging over 71 DraftKings points per game.
  • Damian Lillard (POR) $10,400: With Jusuf Nurkic and C.J. McCollum out, Lillard’s sky-high usage should be even higher. In the first game without those two, Lillard has an absurd 38.4 percent usage rate, tallying 35 points, three rebounds, and six assists.
  • Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $9,400: Kawhi has been a monster this season, scoring at least 30 DK points in every game en route to a 45-point average. The reason we love him today is this matchup, with the Kings ranked dead-last in total defense. That certainly appeared to be the case when Kawhi dropped 46 fantasy points on them in just three-quarters last week.
  • Nikola Vucevic (ORL) $8,600: Vooch has quietly been one of the best players in fantasy, scoring at least 33 DK points in every game. That has led to a 45-point average for the season, which looks even more absurd when considering his 50-point average over his last five games. The best part about using him might be the matchup, though, with Minnesota ranked 29th in defensive efficiency.
  • Ja Morant (MEM) $7,300: Outside of Morant’s return game from injury and the game he got injured, he’s been an absolute stud this season. In fact, Ja is averaging 51 DK points per game in the other three outings. It’s a small sample size, but this is the jump we expected to see from this future superstar. We love that against Lillard and the Blazers’ 25th-ranked defense.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Kevin Huerter (ATL) $9,500: What is this price? This almost seems like a mistake from DraftKings. Huerter is averaging 26 DK points per game and is simply impossible to use at this absurd price tag.
  • Devin Booker (PHO) $8,200: Something is off with this guy. Averaging fewer than 33 fantasy points per game is concerning from someone this expensive but dropping 23 DK points in his last game is a reason to panic. It’s clear Chris Paul is hampering him in terms of usage, and we can’t trust him until he starts playing better or his price drops.
  • John Collins (ATL) $6,900: Collins has taken a huge step back this season, and it’s clear that the blossoming of De’Andre Hunter and acquisition of Clint Capela is killing his value. He’s now failed to crack 36 DK points in 11 of his 13 games while averaging just 30 fantasy points per game for the year.
  • Kemba Walker (BOS) $6,500: Walker struggled really badly in his return to action, scoring nine points on 3-of-13 shooting. He also played just 18 foul-riddled minutes, and it would be hard to imagine him playing more than 25 with his workload needing to be built up. Not to mention, Philly ranks fifth in defensive efficiency, making Walker off-limits.
  • Buddy Hield (SAC) $6,500: Hield’s floor really worries me in this spot, scoring less than 21 DK points five times this season. That’s a terrible mark from someone in this price range, and a matchup with either Paul George or Kawhi Leonard could lead to another one of those duds. In his last two games against them, Hield has just 33 combined DK points, if you needed any more reason to fade him.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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