(Expert Consensus Rantings is an ongoing series by FantasyPros Correspondent Tim Metzler, in which Tim goes ballistic over unjust Expert Consensus Rankings.)
Los Angeles offers three things: Bright lights, big dreams, and all of us hating on Tyler Higbee. It needs to stop! We are holding down a man who could win fantasy championships! HALT THE HIGBEE HATE!
Tyler Higbee stands alone atop the Los Angeles Rams Tight End depth chart, and yet we’re all pretending like that’s not a big deal. Shame on us! We stink worse than my old gym socks I just found. True story. It’s awful.
There are a few primary differences from 2020 to 2021 that should make us all be drooling over the opportunity to draft Higbee, especially given his current ranking. In fact, the reason why I’m so upset about his ranking is that I’ve started to notice that he’s a player I draft in EVERY LEAGUE AND MOCK DRAFT! Any time that happens with a player, it proves to me that their ranking is too low. Either because I hate the guys going before him or because I know I can get him at such a value that I’m willing to reach and not jeopardize my roster.
Yes, yes, there are certainly end-of-draft situations where I’m typically drafting the same late-round fliers, but Higbee is no late-round flier. He’s the ECR 100 overall player in half-PPR leagues. His Average Draft Position (ADP) is 111, meaning he’s getting selected later than most analysts think he should be. SO IT’S NOT JUST THE ANALYSTS FAULT THIS TIME! WE’RE ALL GUILTY OF PUNISHING THIS MAN’S VALUE! He’s the ECR TE11 and one of the most disrespected men in driving distance to Hollywood.
I really am furious about this ranking. I wish you could see me right now, all red-faced and smoke coming out of my ears, but I’ll settle for just saying that I’m filled with hatred for the hate that is being hated upon this hatefully hated unhateable man… or something like that. Anyway, this is why being ranked TE11 is gross, disgusting, and downright wrong.
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Everett Is Out
Higbee is no longer being challenged for targets by his now-former teammate Gerald Everett. Everett has always been a McVay darling and a thorn in Higbee’s side. Our best idea of Higbee’s INSANE upside in an Everett-less world comes from a stretch of games in 2019 when Everett was out. Higbee went on a 4-game tear, during which he put up numbers that made us all believe he was the second coming of Rob Gronkowski. He caught 43 of 56 targets for 522 yards and 2 TDs. His 17-game average (using his averages over that stretch) would have been 146 catches (of 190 targets) for 1,775 yards and 8.5 TDs. Of course, that inflated dream reality bubble was popped this last season when Everett stayed healthy all season, and Higbee let us down. But Everett is gone now. For good this time.
Goodbye, Goff
Matthew Stafford has replaced Jared Goff. Of all the players in the world who have burned me, Goff is at the top of the list. While Stafford has never really been one to target his TEs, he’s also never been one to have a good offensive coordinator. With his two best receivers being Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, Higbee actually becomes the big-bodied red zone threat that Stafford has made a priority to target in his career. Additionally, I think Goff was holding back offensive guru Sean McVay. Finally, with a competent QB, McVay’s ideas and schemes could soar to new heights. Who wouldn’t want a piece of that?
Value, Value, Value
The price is, uh… TOO right for Higbee. To recap, Higbee is being given opportunity and an improved QB situation. The question now really becomes his value. Is he worth his current value? Yes, I mean, have you even been paying attention? At the TE11 and ADP111 spot, he’s not simply a discount but is the victim of an amoral attempt to bury his value. TEs feel like an illusion. There’s the top three: Kelce, Waller, and Kittle. Those three will be the best. Then there’s the rest. Yes, there are some players who are considered more likely to approach that upper tier, but no one is going to. So, the value of a TE outside of the top-100 is such that they must beat out the other TEs that may be drafted. Consider last year’s TE finishes. Here’s a LINK. Kelce finished as the top TE by A LOT. Then there was Waller. Then there was a massive drop to the rest. The difference between Kelce (The 2020 TE1) and the TE3 was over 100 points. The difference between the TE3 and the TE12 was just over 30 points. There will be a handful of TEs who go in the early-to-mid rounds. Historically, they’ll end up finishing closer to the TEs taken after them than the TEs taken before them.
In conclusion, drop your hate for Higbee, ya freaks! When you draft Higbee, you know you aren’t going to get the potential TE1 overall. You’re not. No one believes he’s going to be the TE1. But he’s proven that he’s more than capable of high-level performances. That’s what you’re going to get. With an increased target-share and a new QB hurling the rock, there’s no reason Higbee should be the TE11. I expect him to finish in the TE5-10 range, easily returning value on his ranking and giving you some week-winning performances. Shame on us all for pushing this man into the triple-digit rankings. Boo us!
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Timothy Metzler is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Timothy, check out his archive or follow him @timmy_the_metz.
