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Kyle Yates’ Week 1 Fantasy Projections (2021 Fantasy Football)

Kyle Yates’ Week 1 Fantasy Projections (2021 Fantasy Football)

If this is your first time ever checking out my weekly Fantasy Projections article, welcome! If you’re a returning reader from 2020, thank you so much for coming back and providing your support! My hope is that this article continues to be a valuable resource for you as you attempt to sit down and set your lineup each and every week this season. We made some adjustments and tweaks along the way last year in an effort to deliver the most accurate advice possible and I hope that you find it useful!

If you’re one of the individuals who is checking out this article for the first time, I usually write something here in the intro about what’s happening in dad life, or a funny story from my past, or a notable event happening in the world, but that’s not going to be the case here this week. I want to get very personal with you all and let you know how I’m doing.

This past month has been extremely difficult. As many of you know, my co-host on The FantasyPros Football Podcast and one of my best friends, Mike Tagliere, has been in the hospital battling COVID for several weeks now. It’s been tough to hear about someone that you spend nearly every day talking to battling for his life and you simply can’t do anything about it. While we all have continued on and worked around the clock to deliver the same amount of fantasy advice as we normally would in August – and I’m so proud of our team here at FantasyPros for how much they’ve sacrificed – it hasn’t been easy with this weight hanging over us. I’m constantly finding myself opening up Slack to message Tags about something that happened in the NFL or to share with him a funny New Girl clip I just watched, only to remember that he’s not available right now.

While it hasn’t been easy these past few weeks – and I know it’s been the same for many of you that follow Tags and feel like he’s one of your best friends too with how much you have listened to him on the podcast over the years – I’m so thankful for the overwhelming amount of support from our audience and fellow colleagues in the industry. I know that everyone is thinking about Tags and his wife, Tabbie, and praying that he comes home to his family soon. As Tabbie said on a recent Twitter update, she’s praying for the Four H’s: that he’s Happy, Healthy, Home, and Healed. Please continue to send your prayers/thoughts/good vibes to Tabbie and their family as they navigate a truly terrible situation.

Tags, buddy, it didn’t feel right to start off the season without dedicating this article this year to you. You’ve been a huge part of my development as a fantasy football analyst and a huge reason why I’m in the spot I am today. You’re a fighter, you’re stronger than even you know, and I have faith that you’re going to be back on the podcast telling me that my takes are idiotic sooner than later. I love you like a brother and I am praying for you constantly throughout each and every day. Keep fighting.

This one’s for you, buddy.

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Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date/Time: Thursday September 9, 8:20pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread
: Buccaneers -8.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 51.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals
: Cowboys 22, Buccaneers 29.5

Dallas Cowboys

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Dak Prescott 65.5% 264 2.15 0.7 11 0.3 21
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB Ezekiel Elliott 16 62 0.5 3 24 0.25 14.83
RB Tony Pollard 6 29 0.2 2 9 0.1 6.47
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR CeeDee Lamb 0 0 0 5 65 0.6 12.37
WR Amari Cooper 0 0 0 5 62 0.5 11.81
WR Michael Gallup 0 0 0 4 47 0.3 8.33
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE Blake Jarwin 0 0 0 2 26 0.2 5.02

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Tom Brady 67.16% 270 3.4 0.4 1 0.1 24
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB Ronald Jones II 13 63 0.5 1 9 0.2 12.08
RB Giovani Bernard 3 8 0 3 21 0.25 5.94
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR Chris Godwin 0 0 0 5 60 0.6 12.28
WR Antonio Brown 0 0 0 5 54 0.6 11.47
WR Mike Evans 0 0 0 4 53 0.7 11.37
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE Rob Gronkowski 0 0 0 2 28 0.5 6.94

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Quarterback

Dallas: Based on reports, Prescott is going to be ready to roll for week one against Tampa Bay, but he’s not going to exactly have it easy. This is a defense that was top-5 in Team DVOA last season and they’ve returned all of their starters. While Dak has the receiving corps that is probably best suited in the NFL to counteract the pressure Dak’s going to be under, we shouldn’t be expecting a top-5 performance in his first game back from his shoulder injury. You drafted Dak with an early pick at QB, so you’re certainly starting him in this matchup, but we need to be cautious with our expectations.

Tampa Bay: Brady’s back for his second season in Tampa at 44-years-old and he honestly might end up being a top-5 option this week at the QB position. Dallas was an abysmal defense last season and they’ve made strides to fix that heading into 2021, but it doesn’t appear like it’s made much of a difference based on what we’ve seen in the pre-season. With all of the receiving weapons that Brady has at his disposal, Dallas doesn’t have a prayer for stopping this offense. Points are going to be put up on the board by Tampa Bay and Brady could easily find his way into the top-5 when it’s all said and done. Brady’s a no-brainer start in this matchup.

Running Backs

Dallas: It wasn’t exactly pretty for Elliott last season after Dak went down. He was averaging 19.9 Fantasy Points Per Game with Dak and he fell all the way to just 9.8 FPPG without him! It’s hard to get that bad taste out of our mouths with what Zeke did last season, but this is a new year and the offense should be back to performing at a very high level. With that being said, this might not be the week that we should be expecting to see great things out of Zeke because of this matchup. The Bucs were the most difficult matchup for fantasy RBs in 2020, surrendering just 13.7 fantasy points per game to the position. With little to no turnover on the defense, this unit is going to be a stone wall yet again in 2021. Zeke’s absolutely still worth starting because of the investment you made in him, but we should be tempering our expectations for him in week one. He can be viewed as a low-end RB1. Pollard was far enough down draft boards where you shouldn’t need to consider him in your starting lineup unless you drafted early this off-season and you’ve been decimated by injuries. Regardless, he should be viewed as nothing more than a FLEX play in this tough matchup.

Tampa Bay: At the time of writing, it’s a complete mystery as to how this backfield is going to look on Thursday night. Ronald Jones appears to be the favorite to lead this team in carries, but that’s far from a guarantee. Additionally, there’s always the potential that Jones fumbles and Bruce Arians turns to Leonard Fournette. Based on where you drafted all three of these Tampa Bay RBs, it’s unlikely that you will need to start any of them despite this favorable matchup. Jones has some appeal as a boom-or-bust RB3 due to the fact that the Cowboys allowed the 8th most fantasy points to the RB position last season, but otherwise, Fournette and Giovani Bernard should remain on your bench to see how this backfield shakes out.

Wide Receivers

Dallas: It feels like we’re heading towards CeeDee Lamb being viewed as a top-5 WR this season, doesn’t it? Lamb showed out in his rookie season and appears to be on the verge of a true breakout season with Dak at QB. However, the breakout might not necessarily happen here in week one against the Bucs defense. This defense only got better over the off-season and they should be terrorizing Dak all game long. Lamb is still absolutely worth starting and he could very easily overcome the matchup due to his talent, but it’s a tough enough slate that it should at least cause us to temper our expectations for the second-year wideout. He can be viewed as a high-end WR2. Amari Cooper’s back and ready to roll for this matchup against the Bucs. While the Bucs are much more stout against the run than they are defending the pass, they’re still a solid secondary that should make life difficult for the Cowboys’ receivers this week. Cooper can be viewed as a low-end WR2 against the Bucs. Michael Gallup is likely one of the most under-appreciated WRs in the entire NFL. While he’s a fantastic talent in his own right, he’s often “forgotten” about because of the two options above him on the depth chart. There’s buzz that Gallup and Lamb may switch roles this season and Gallup could play in the slot a lot more, which would be a bit of a boost to his fantasy stock. We’ll need to see exactly what the offensive structure looks like before we make any wild conclusions, but Gallup’s worth watching in this game to see what his target share ends up being. Otherwise, he can be viewed as a boom-or-bust FLEX option for right now.

Tampa Bay: The Buccaneers have arguably the best WR trio in the entire NFL and they should all have every opportunity to put up dominant numbers in week one. The Cowboys allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing WRs in 2020 with a shocking 28.7 average per game. While the Cowboys have invested in trying to shore up this weakness in their defense – through draft picks and changing out defensive coordinators – they still won’t have answers for the Bucs passing game this week. Evans might not have as many targets as fantasy managers would like to see this week, but he has a very high probability of finding the end zone. He can be viewed as a mid-range WR2 with upside. Chris Godwin has been the focal point of this passing attack and one of the most consistent receivers in all of fantasy over the past couple of years. While Evans has more upside due to his involvement in the red zone, Godwin comes with an extremely safe floor every single week due to his target share. In this matchup, Dallas isn’t going to be able to slow down the Bucs receivers, which puts all of them on the start-worthy radar. Godwin can be viewed as a mid-range WR2 this week. Antonio Brown is making the news recently – no, it’s a good reason, don’t worry – with Bruce Arians saying that he’s looking like the AB from four or five years ago with the Steelers. That’s fantastic news for the fantasy managers that drafted him as a WR3 to their rosters. While there are a ton of mouths to feed in this offense, there’s a strong possibility that AB actually leads this offense in targets when the season is all said and done. Start Brown with confidence this week as a high-end WR3.

Tight Ends

Dallas: At the time of writing, it’s not clear whether Dalton Schultz or Blake Jarwin will be the starting TE for this offense against Tampa Bay. While one of these options would almost certainly be fantasy relevant if they had the job to themselves, that’s not the case right now. This is absolutely a situation to stay away from in week one, but one to watch closely to see who takes the starting role.

Tampa Bay: Gronkowski was solid for fantasy football last year, but at this point of his career he’s a touchdown-or-bust option. The Cowboys were middle of the pack last year in terms of points allowed to opposing TEs and we know that Gronk’s not going to be a high-volume player in this offense. If you end up starting him in this matchup, you’re going to be stuck hoping that he finds the end zone.

FantasyProjection Buster: The Bucs RB situation is one that could absolutely bust my projections. If Fournette receives the goal-line work over Jones, he’ll greatly outperform my expectations.

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Seattle Seahawks vs Indianapolis Colts

Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Seahawks -2.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 50 points
Implied Vegas point totals
: Seahawks 25.5, Colts 23

Seattle Seahawks

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Russell Wilson 24/34 273 2.45 0.4 23 0.4 25
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB Chris Carson 16 68 0.5 2 16 0.25 13.92
RB Rashaad Penny 7 27 0.15 1 5 0.05 4.83
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR D.K. Metcalf 0 0 0 5 85 0.7 15.3
WR Tyler Lockett 0 0 0 5 54 0.5 10.9
WR D’Wayne Eskridge 0 0 0 3 41 0.3 7.53
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE Gerald Everett 0 0 0 3 28 0.35 6.33

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Indianapolis Colts

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Carson Wentz 23/34 264 2 0.65 11 0.2 20
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB Jonathan Taylor 16 70 0.8 2 20 0.2 16.12
RB Nyheim Hines 3 10 0.1 3 24 0.25 6.95
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR Michael Pittman Jr. 0 0 0 5 62 0.45 11.34
WR Zach Pascal 0 0 0 3 33 0.35 6.73
WR Parris Campbell 0 0 0 3 37 0.2 6.48
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE Jack Doyle 0 0 0 3 31 0.35 6.54

__________

Quarterback

Seattle: Which version of Russell Wilson are we going to see here in week one? Are we going to see the version that was on fire to start 2020 and barreling towards being the unanimous league MVP? Or are we going to see the version that disappointed fantasy managers in the back half of the season and was the QB11 in fantasy football from weeks 9-17? With all the moves the Seahawks have made this off-season, I believe we’re going to see Russ cook this season and it starts here in this matchup. Shane Waldron was brought in from the Los Angeles Rams to be the new offensive coordinator to help make this offense less predictable, which was the big reason why the production for this unit fell off in the back half of 2020. While the Colts were one of the top-10 toughest matchups for opposing fantasy QBs last season – and they’re returning essentially the same defense – Russ should be able to put up some points this week. He can be viewed as a mid-range QB1 for week one.

Indianapolis: Wentz is reportedly on track to play as we move into week one. While there are reasons to be optimistic about what he can be for fantasy football now reunited with Frank Reich, his first week back from a significant injury is not the time to rush out and play him with any sort of confidence. Wentz can be viewed as a low-end QB2 at best this week.

Running Backs

Seattle: There was some uncertainty earlier on this off-season on whether or not Chris Carson was even going to be back in Seattle for 2021. He was playing for a larger contract in 2020, trying to prove that he could stay healthy, and he fell short of the 16-game benchmark yet again. However, he’s back in town for this next season at least and he should get back to seeing one of the more significant workloads in the entire NFL. With that being said, this is a week that we should exercise some caution when projecting Carson and this Seahawks rushing attack. The Colts were a top-12 defense last year in terms of surrendering fantasy points to opposing RBs. Additionally, they only allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game in 2020 with 90.8, which was behind only Tampa Bay. This Colts defense might not have many answers for the Seahawks passing attack in week one, but they should be able to keep Carson in check for the majority of the game. He can be viewed as a low-end RB2 this week that you’re hoping finds the end zone to finish higher than that.

Indianapolis: You can’t exactly have a more dominant stretch than what Jonathan Taylor experienced towards the back end of the 2020 NFL season. From weeks 13-17, Taylor was the RB1 in all of fantasy football with 125.3 fantasy points scored per game during that stretch, or an average of 25.1. He dominated some fantastic matchups and it’s put him squarely in the top-8 conversation for fantasy this season. The Seahawks defense was middle-of-the-pack last year in DVOA, so this matchup shouldn’t be anything that we’re concerned about for Taylor. He’s a locked-and-loaded RB1 for this week. Nyheim Hines certainly should be involved in this offense each week, but he’s not worth starting right out of the gates in this matchup when we are unclear exactly how this backfield will shake out. He’s a bench option for week one.

Wide Receivers

Seattle: Throughout his first two seasons in the league, DK Metcalf has 2,203 receiving yards to pair with 17 touchdowns. When this offense was rolling through the first half of 2020 (weeks 1-9), Metcalf was the WR2 in all of fantasy football. While the Colts’ defense is viewed as a stout unit, they’re more dominant in the run game versus the pass. This was a team that was middle-of-the-pack in fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs last season, so there’s no reason to not start Metcalf in week one. You spent a high pick on him and he deserves to be in your starting lineup. Tyler Lockett is the epitome of a boom-or-bust WR. From weeks 7-16 last season, Lockett finished inside the top-40 WRs on the week just three times. Over that same time span, he finished outside the top-40 WRs the remaining seven times. He comes with week-winning upside, there’s no denying that, but the consistency simply isn’t there from him. This week, he can be viewed as a boom-or-bust WR3. Dee Eskridge is not worth starting this week at all – he’s probably not even rostered in your league – but simply keep an eye on him in this matchup. There’s a strong possibility that he’s one of the hotter waiver wire pickups after week one.

Indianapolis: As of right now, it appears that Michael Pittman is the de-facto WR1 in Indianapolis. With T.Y. Hilton out for the first weeks of the season – minimum – Pittman’s walking into a massive opportunity. From the sound of everything coming out of Colts camp, it appears that he’s ready to rise to the occasion. Based on his pre-draft ADP, you most likely have several WRs above Pittman that you can plug into your starting lineup. However, this defense was absolutely atrocious at stopping opposing WRs in 2020. Granted, they did tighten things up towards the back half of the year, but they also haven’t made any significant strides to upgrade the corner position in Seattle this off-season. Pittman could be walking into a minimum of 7 targets in this game, which absolutely puts him into the mid-range WR3 conversation. Parris Campbell is an exciting player – there’s no debating that – but his injury history has stunted his development in the NFL. If you do have Campbell on your roster, he’s not worth starting this week due to how low his pre-draft ADP was. However, you should be watching this game closely to see how he looks and what his role is in this Colts offense.

Tight Ends

Seattle: As of the time of writing, we don’t have any clarity on who exactly the clear starting TE is here in Seattle. Everyone assumes that it’s Gerald Everett, but Will Dissly and Everett essentially split time with the starts in the pre-season. While I do expect Everett to be the player we want from a fantasy perspective, there’s too much uncertainty regarding this position in Seattle to feel confident starting one confidently. Everett’s a low-end TE2 at best against Indianapolis.

Indianapolis: Very similarly to Seattle, we don’t exactly know who the TE to roster in fantasy is this year from Indianapolis. While Jack Doyle should be the player we look at for fantasy football, that’s not a guarantee with how many other bodies are in this TE room. This is probably a situation to avoid in fantasy for at least week one. If you’re absolutely in a pinch, Doyle should only be viewed as a low-end TE2.

FantasyProjection Buster: Every single week that the Seahawks play, the answer to this section will be Tyler Lockett.

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Jaguars -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 45.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals
: Jaguars 23.75, Texans 20.75

Jacksonville Jaguars

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Trevor Lawrence 21/32 226 1.55 0.4 22 0.65 21
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB James Robinson 12 56 0.85 3 22 0.3 16.2
RB Carlos Hyde 8 34 0.35 1 4 0 6.43
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR Marvin Jones Jr. 0 0 0 4 51 0.35 9.28
WR Laviska Shenault Jr. 1 5 0 4 47 0.3 9.26
WR D.J. Chark Jr. 0 0 0 4 50 0.4 9.21
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE James O’Shaughnessy 0 0 0 2 20 0.1 3.74

__________

Houston Texans

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Tyrod Taylor 20/32 223 1.75 0.8 17 0.3 18
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB Phillip Lindsay 9 38 0.4 1 6 0.1 8.09
RB David Johnson 4 14 0.2 3 29 0.15 7.91
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR Brandin Cooks 0 0 0 5 59 0.55 11.41
WR Chris Conley 0 0 0 3 36 0.25 6.56
WR Nico Collins 0 0 0 3 36 0.2 6.16
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE Jordan Akins 0 0 0 3 34 0.2 6.16

__________

Quarterback

Jacksonville: Is he officially the starting QB in Jacksonville? Oh, okay good. We can stop this whole circus act with pretending that Gardner Minshew and Trevor Lawrence were entrenched in a heated QB battle heading into the 2021 season. Minshew’s now in Philadelphia and Lawrence is the future of the Jaguars. While it’s not exactly always the wisest move to roll the dice with streaming a rookie QB in their first-ever NFL game, this game might be an exception. Lawrence gets to take on the Houston Texans defense that will be squarely on everyone’s radar all year long when it comes to playing any position group against them. The nicest way I can put this game into perspective is to have you imagine that the high school varsity team that is coming off of a State Championship gets to play the JV team of one of the worst schools in the district. Too harsh? Lawrence is most likely going to land as a top-10 QB in my week one rankings.

Houston: In any other circumstance, the QB who gets to play the Jacksonville Jaguars defense is probably going to be squarely on the streaming radar. The Jaguars were second-to-last in the league last year in Defensive DVOA and they allowed the third-most fantasy points on average to opposing QBs. However, this offense in Houston is not one that we want to be targeting in fantasy leagues this season. Tyrod Taylor can be fine for fantasy purposes in this game, but he shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than a low-end option for 2QB formats. Unless we see something utterly bizarre and unexpected from this Texans offense in week one, we shouldn’t be looking at Tyrod as anything more than that all season long.

Running Backs

Jacksonville: With Travis Etienne out of the picture, James Robinson is back on center stage here in Jacksonville. Robinson single-handedly won people fantasy football championships last year with his emergence off of the waiver wire and he performed well in a terrible Jaguars offense. In 2021, this offense promises to be much improved and Robinson is going to be given every opportunity to succeed yet again. While Carlos Hyde figures to eat into more of Robinson’s workload than he should, Robinson’s going to run wild in this matchup. The Texans’ defense allowed a league-worst 160.2 rushing yards per game on average last season. The unfortunate thing for Texans fans is that the defense might have gotten even worse over the off-season. Robinson’s going to see plenty of work in this matchup and the upside for a multiple touchdown performance is absolutely there. Start him with confidence as a high-end RB2 this week.

Houston: While Phillip Lindsay saw a lot of work on first and second downs in the pre-season and David Johnson has apparently been relegated to a pure third-down role in this offense, this might be a backfield that you just want to completely avoid. Even though the matchup is favorable, there’s absolutely no telling what David Culley and this Texans coaching staff is going to do with Mark Ingram and the other backs in this system this year. None of these players were drafted as starters in pre-draft ADP, so you shouldn’t be looking to start them at all in week one. It’s quite possible that you might want to run from this backfield altogether after what we see in this matchup.

Wide Receivers

Jacksonville: Chark is reportedly set to play in week one against Houston, but there are reasons to be skeptical about what his production could be in this offense. He’s missed quite a bit of time this pre-season and there have been up-and-down reports coming out of Jaguars’ camp about what we should expect from him in 2021. Chark’s an incredibly talented player though and he’s worth considering as a mid-range WR3 this week simply because of the matchup. The Texans allowed an average of 26.5 fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts last season and Chark’s going to have every opportunity imaginable to find the end zone. He’s a bit of a swing-for-the-fences play, but there’s a very high probability of knocking it out of the park. Marvin Jones has established a strong connection with Lawrence all throughout the pre-season and he should be in line for a massive game this week. While there’s the potential that Lawrence locks onto one particular receiver versus spreading the wealth around, Jones is a fantastic FLEX play this week due to his upside. Laviska Shenault was someone that I had my concerns about this off-season after seeing the Jaguars spend a first-round pick on Etienne. However, with Etienne out of the picture now, Shenault is an extremely intriguing option for fantasy football this entire season, but particularly in week one. The Texans allowed the fourth-most yards per pass attempt in the league last season with 7.6 and they’re simply not going to have an answer for the Jaguars passing game. Without the presence of a dominant TE in this offense, Shenault is going to command targets over the middle of the field. Plug him into your starting lineup as a high-end WR3.

Houston: There’s only one wideout from Houston that you should be looking at for fantasy football right now, Brandin Cooks. Due to how much this offense is projected to throw the ball due to negative game scripts, Cooks should end up with a handsome target total every single week. However, that still might not lead to a ton of reliable fantasy production. While the matchup is great on paper when looking at last year’s stats, the Jaguars have made significant improvements to their secondary this off-season. Cooks is a mid-range WR3 this week that gets a slight bump up in Full PPR formats. Otherwise, you should be avoiding this wide receiving corps for now.

Tight Ends

Jacksonville: None of the Jaguars’ TEs should be considered for fantasy football this week.

Houston: None of the Texans TEs should be considered for fantasy football this week.

FantasyProjection Buster: All of the Jaguars’ WRs are grouped pretty close together in my projections and rankings, but if Lawrence leans on one of them, the other two will fall short of my expectations.

__________

Philadelphia Eagles vs Atlanta Falcons

Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Falcons -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 48 points
Implied Vegas point totals
: Eagles 22.25, Falcons 25.75

Philadelphia Eagles

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Jalen Hurts 21/32 221 1.75 0.7 41 0.7 23
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB Miles Sanders 11 54 0.4 2 15 0.2 11.56
RB Boston Scott 5 24 0.2 2 14 0.15 6.73
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR DeVonta Smith 0 0 0 4 49 0.35 8.91
WR Quez Watkins 0 0 0 3 34 0.25 6.52
WR Jalen Reagor 0 0 0 3 34 0.25 6.18
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE Dallas Goedert 0 0 0 3 39 0.35 7.78

__________

Atlanta Falcons

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Matt Ryan 24/35 259 2.65 0.8 6 0.15 21
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB Mike Davis 13 50 0.6 3 22 0.3 14.29
RB Wayne Gallman 8 35 0.25 1 5 0.1 6.71
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR Calvin Ridley 0 0 0 5 75 0.9 15.61
WR Russell Gage 0 0 0 3 34 0.3 6.74
WR Olamide Zaccheaus 0 0 0 2 30 0.1 4.72
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE Kyle Pitts 0 0 0 4 57 0.7 12.06

__________

Quarterback

Philadelphia: Have I been on record this off-season talking about how I’m concerned about Jalen Hurts and his price tag for fantasy football heading into 2021? Absolutely. With that being said, Hurts might be a top-5 QB this week due to the matchup with Atlanta. The Falcons allowed the 5th most average yards per pass attempt in 2020 with 7.5 and they allowed the most fantasy points to the QB position. There’s been very little done to address the defense as a whole in Atlanta either this season, which makes them a fantastic target to stream QBs against. Hurts legitimately has overall QB1 upside this week in this matchup and if he can’t get it done here, we should all be extremely concerned.

Atlanta: While I haven’t exactly been pounding the drum for Ryan in season-long leagues this season, he gets a great matchup to start off the year against Philadelphia. The Eagles were towards the bottom of the league last year in key categories in terms of slowing down opposing passing games and it doesn’t seem like much has changed from 2020 to 2021. Ryan’s going to have to rely heavily on Ridley and Pitts this season without Julio in town, but this is a great matchup for them to both hit the ground running. Ryan can be viewed as a high-end QB2 this week.

Running Backs

Philadelphia: When Doug Pederson was fired, it seemed like we were heading towards Miles Sanders getting the workload that fantasy managers have been clamoring for a couple of years now. Unfortunately, it seems like new head coach Nick Sirianni wants to deploy a similar RBBC philosophy to this backfield in Philadelphia. Atlanta was actually one of the stingiest defenses in terms of defending the run last season, but it’s difficult to determine whether or not that was because every team could throw all over them. Sanders should be incredibly efficient again this week – as he usually is – but the lack of guaranteed volume means he can’t be viewed as anything more than a mid-range/low-end RB2. Boston Scott has some appeal in deeper leagues as a low-end FLEX option in Full PPR formats, but otherwise, he’s not someone that we should be rushing to start right out of the gates. This is absolutely a backfield to monitor though to see how everything shakes out.

Atlanta: Mike Davis was brought over in free agency and he seems to be heading towards a significant role in 2021. While Arthur Smith is known for feeding Henry in Tennessee over the past couple of seasons, Davis is not Henry and we shouldn’t be expecting that same workload. After stepping in relief of CMC last year in Carolina, Davis started to wear down as the season progressed and the heavy workload caught up with him. With that in mind – plus the very little depth the Falcons have behind him – Davis might not be in line for as much volume as we’re predicting. With that being said, the Eagles were top-8 in rushing touchdowns per game allowed last season with an average of 1.2. Davis should be involved heavily as a receiver out of the backfield and the scoring opportunities should be there in this one. He can be viewed as a mid-range/low-end RB2. Wayne Gallman was just brought into Atlanta after being released by the San Francisco 49ers. While he’s not quite on the redraft radar just yet, he’s worth watching in this game to see how much work he gets to compliment Davis. If it’s a significant workload, he’s going to be a hot waiver wire add after week one.

Wide Receivers

Philadelphia: Devonta Smith is entering the NFL coming off of arguably the most dominant season for a WR in college football history. While there are reasons to be concerned about his year one output, those concerns don’t much matter here in week one. The Falcons were the third easiest matchup for opposing WRs last season from a fantasy perspective and they allowed an average of 28 points per game. They haven’t done much to shore up the secondary this off-season, so we should be expecting more of the same in 2021. Whatever your opinion is of Hurts as a passer and how that affects Smith, it can be put aside for this matchup. Smith can be viewed as a low-end WR3 this week with upside. Meanwhile, Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins both should be appealing options in this matchup, but they were so far down draft boards that it’s highly unlikely that you would even need to consider them this week. It’s quite possible that both are available on your waiver wire still…

Atlanta: Since entering the NFL in 2018, Calvin Ridley ranks sixth among all WRs in total touchdowns with 26. He’s also in the top-15 during that time span for total receiving yards and there’s a path for him to ascend even higher on that list by the end of 2021. Without Julio in town, Ridley’s going to have every opportunity to soak up targets and produce with his workload. While the matchup against Darius Slay is a bit daunting based on name value, Slay hasn’t been the same caliber of “lockdown-corner” that he was in Detroit. Ridley should see a minimum of seven targets in this one and he’s worth plugging into your lineup as a top-5 WR this week. Russell Gage had some intrigue as a late-round pre-draft dart throw, but he was far enough down consensus ADP that you won’t need to put him into your starting lineups for this one. He’s worth monitoring to see if he does indeed line up out wide in 2-WR sets, which would be a huge boost for his fantasy value, but you don’t need to start him in your lineup just yet.

Tight Ends

Philadelphia: There was a ton of optimism for Dallas Goedert throughout the beginning of the off-season, but that’s come crashing down with the fact that Zach Ertz remains on this roster heading into 2021. With Ertz still in Philadelphia, the matchup doesn’t make much of a difference for how to view him for fantasy…he has a capped ceiling. He might provide a decent floor each week due to his talent and the potential that Hurts could lock onto him, but he’s never going to see 100% of the snaps at the TE position in Philadelphia. He falls into the territory of plenty of other TEs where he will need to find the end zone to crack the top-10. Otherwise, he can be viewed as a low-end TE1.

Atlanta: Ladies and gentlemen, it’s time to see what we have in Kyle Pitts! While the college tape is simply absurd at times, we have yet to see what exactly he can do in this offense against top-tier defensive talent in the NFL. You drafted him with a premium pick, so you’re obviously starting him in week one – now it’s just time to sit back and see what happens.

FantasyProjection Buster: Hurts is going to be a player that I’m watching closely this week to see how he does. If he takes as long as a typical rookie TE does to acclimate to the NFL level, he’ll fall short of projections.

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