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New York Jets vs Carolina Panthers

Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Panthers -5.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 44 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Jets 19.75, Panthers 25.25

New York Jets

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Carolina Panthers

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Quarterback

New York: Zach Wilson’s a fun player to watch and there’s a very strong likelihood that he’s going to be very good for fantasy down the road, but he’s not someone I’m looking to start in his first-ever NFL game. He can be viewed as a QB3 for week one.

Carolina: This is going to be a fun matchup to watch as Sam Darnold gets to face his former team right away. While we have absolutely no idea what version of Darnold we’re going to see on the football field, this is a matchup that you might want to start him in for 2QB formats. The Jets allowed 7.3 yards per pass attempt last season and the secondary doesn’t have anyone that can match up with the Panthers’ receiving weapons. All Darnold has to do is get the ball out and into his playmakers’ hands and they should be able to create for him. It’s a risky play, but one that could pay off in a big way.

Running Backs

New York: This backfield is a bit of a mess for right now. While the expectation is that Michael Carter will take over this starting job eventually this season, Tevin Coleman has been listed as the starter for week one. Additionally, Ty Johnson should see plenty of work as well in this RBBC. For this matchup, it’s highly unlikely that you’ll want to start any of these Jets RBs until we get more clarity on what exactly the rotation will look like here. I recommend looking elsewhere.

Carolina: He’s back, ladies and gentlemen! CMC is ready to roll after missing the majority of the 2020 NFL season and he has a fantastic matchup to start off the year. While the Jets run defense is actually one of the better units in the league, McCaffrey doesn’t just get his fantasy value from his work on the ground. Darnold should be looking his way early and often in this matchup and we could easily see CMC end up with 8+ targets. He’s the RB1 this week and every week until further notice.

Wide Receivers

New York: Corey Davis has apparently developed an incredible amount of chemistry with Wilson throughout their time together in training camp. Davis was targeted on 10 of his 13 routes this preseason, according to PFF. While that target share is unlikely to carry over into the NFL season, it’s great news for fantasy managers that drafted Davis as a WR3 or even WR4. The Panthers added Jaycee Horn early in the first round this off-season to be a shutdown corner, but it’s going to take time before he reaches that level. Davis should have no issue getting open in this game and we know that Wilson’s going to be looking his way early and often. You should feel comfortable starting Davis as a low-end WR2. Jamison Crowder is currently questionable for this game at the time of writing. While he is trending towards playing, he’s not someone that we should feel comfortable starting in week one. If Crowder doesn’t suit up, Elijah Moore is likely to step in as a starter out of the slot. While Moore’s an exciting player and he has a bright future ahead of him for fantasy, we shouldn’t be clamoring to put him in our starting lineups after he’s missed significant time this off-season. Keelan Cole should be the other starting WR in this offense and he’s worth watching for on your waiver wire after week one, but he was so far down consensus ADP that you shouldn’t have the need to start him. Update: Crowder has been ruled out for this game.

Carolina: Robby Anderson was fantastic for fantasy football last year after being a later-round draft pick. He filled a valuable role for this Panthers offense and he should get right back to producing for fantasy again. He gets the revenge-game narrative in this one and we know that he and Darnold have a connection from their time together with the Jets. Against the Jets secondary that lacks proven playmakers, Anderson should provide fantasy managers with an extremely safe floor. He can be viewed as a mid-range WR3. DJ Moore has the potential to truly show out in this matchup against the Jets secondary that allowed 7.3 yards per pass attempt last season. Moore switched roles in this offense last season and he was used primarily as a big-play option. With Marshall now in town, it’ll be interesting to see how everyone lines up when they’re all together on the field, but Moore’s going to have his guaranteed targets. He can be viewed as a mid-range WR2. Terrace Marshall has gotten plenty of hype this preseason – and for good reason – but it’s hard to see how he provides weekly fantasy value with CMC, Moore, and Anderson all above him on the depth chart. Marshall can be viewed as a boom-or-bust FLEX option this week.

Tight Ends

New York: None of the Jets TEs should be considered for fantasy football this week.

Carolina: Dan Arnold came over in free agency and he’s absolutely going to have a role in this potentially dynamic offense. Ian Thomas was top-10 in the NFL in terms of routes run from the TE position last year, which means that Arnold’s going to have a significant opportunity in this offense. While he shouldn’t be someone that you start this week due to where he was drafted, he’s worth monitoring throughout the game to see what his role looks like and how he performs. He could be a hot waiver wire add afterward.

FantasyProjection Buster: Darnold has a very high projected scoring output from me. If he can’t rise to the occasion – or struggles to click in this new offense right away – he’ll fall short of my lofty goal.

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Arizona Cardinals vs Tennessee Titans

Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Titans -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 52.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Cardinals 24.5, Titans 27.5

Arizona Cardinals

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Tennessee Titans

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Quarterback

Arizona: Did you know before Murray suffered his shoulder injury in the Week 11 game against the Seattle Seahawks last year that he was the QB1 in all of fantasy football? It wasn’t particularly close either. Through week 11, Murray had 291.66 fantasy points and was averaging an absurd 29.17 points per game. The next closest over that same time span was Russell Wilson with 268.14 fantasy points. Murray absolutely has the potential to be the QB1 in all of fantasy football when the season’s done with his mobility paired with the receiving weapons around him. The Titans were bleeding fantasy points to opposing QBs last season and their defense hasn’t taken drastic steps forward this off-season. Murray has overall QB1 upside this week and every week moving forward. Start him with confidence.

Tennessee: Ryan Tannehill finished the season last year as the QB7 in all of fantasy football and he seems poised to repeat with a dominant performance again in 2021. He’s seen some turnover in this offense in terms of receivers, but adding someone of Julio’s caliber never hurts. With this matchup specifically, the Arizona secondary is going to be a matchup fantasy managers will want to target all game long. The Cardinals are trying to piece things together after seeing Patrick Peterson move on in free agency and it’s not exactly an awe-inspiring group left behind. The pass-catchers should have a field day this week and Tannehill’s going to benefit off of it. Start him confidently as a top-10 option at the QB position.

Running Backs

Arizona: The Cardinals let Drake walk in free agency and replaced him with James Conner. While Conner is nowhere near as effective of a player as he was a few years ago, he can still execute the role the Cardinals will ask of him this year. With that being said, that role might not mean much to fantasy managers. With the majority of the receiving work falling to Edmonds, plus Murray’s involvement as a runner around the goal line, Conner has a limited ceiling each and every week. He falls into the low-end RB3 territory that you’re hoping finds the end zone to make it worth starting him. Chase Edmonds has plenty of hype surrounding him heading into the 2021 season, but fantasy managers should be skeptical of his output on game day. Edmonds is a fantastic receiver out of the backfield, but his size and skill set doesn’t translate to him assuming a large workload on the ground. He’s unlikely to be used around the goal-line, which puts Edmonds in the consistent mid-range RB3 conversation. He won’t hurt your lineup and he’ll bring a safe floor, but the upside most likely isn’t there.

Tennessee: Henry’s facing a much tougher Cardinals defense in the run game than even last season, but he’s still Derrick Henry. He’s going to receive one of – if not the largest – workloads in the league and there’s very little reason to doubt what he can do for fantasy. Start him as a top-5 option.

Wide Receivers

Arizona: Did you know that over the past two seasons, Deandre Hopkins leads the entire NFL in total targets with 310? And that he’s second in the entire league with 2,572 receiving yards in that same time span? The Titans’ defense struggled to slow down opposing passing attacks in 2020 as they allowed the 4th most fantasy points to the WR position. While they’ve brought in players to try and shore up that weakness this off-season, there’s no one on this roster that can slow down Hopkins. Start him as a top-5 option this week. AJ Green had some hype surrounding him heading into 2020 and the opportunity was certainly there in Cincinnati last season. Unfortunately, Green didn’t look like his former self and he couldn’t produce with the massive target share he was still seeing. Now, he has a new home in Arizona and he’ll try to get back to the AJ Green we know and appreciate on the field. With that being said, Hopkins absolutely dominates the target share in this offense, which leaves very little left over for the remaining receiving options. Any of them could put together a solid performance, but it’s going to be very difficult to try and guess when those happen. Green is a low-end FLEX option this week. Rondale Moore showcased his talent during the pre-season and he should be heavily involved as a receiving option in the short passing game here in Arizona. Moore absolutely has the talent to create with the ball in his hands, but he’s going to need to be ultra-efficient to provide weekly fantasy value. For week one, it’s probably best to leave Moore on your bench, despite a plus matchup. We’ll need to monitor this game closely though to see how everything shakes out from a target share perspective. If Moore can establish himself as the No. 2 target in this offense right out of the gates, he’ll be in the weekly FLEX conversation moving forward.

Tennessee: AJ Brown might be in line for the game of his life this weekend against the Cardinals secondary. Per Pro Football Focus, Brown is slated to see coverage from Byron Murphy primarily in this game, which is a massive advantage in Brown’s favor. Arizona is going to have to rely heavily on the pressure the front-seven can create because they simply don’t have the players in the secondary to match up with the Titans pass-catchers. Julio Jones will make his appearance in a Titans uniform this weekend and it’s going to be fun to see what type of performance he can put up. We have seemingly forgotten what Julio can do when he’s on the field and fully healthy and the matchup indicates that fantasy points are going to be there for him. Start both Brown and Julio as top-15 options this week.

Tight Ends

Arizona: None of the Arizona TEs should be considered for fantasy football this week.

Tennessee: Anthony Firkser was a hot name heading into the 2021 pre-season, but we only saw him come onto the field on third downs, which indicates that he’s not going to take on much of an expanded role compared to what he had last year. While every single pass can’t go to Julio and Brown, which means Firkser will still at least see some work, it’s not going to be enough to put him into the streaming conversation. For right now, Firkser should remain on your bench or waiver wire.

FantasyProjection Buster: Moore could end up eating more into Hopkins’ target share than I’m expecting. If that’s the case, he’ll finish higher than what I gave him here in projections.

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Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs

Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 4:25pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Chiefs -6
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 54.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Browns 23.5, Chiefs 29.5

Cleveland Browns

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Kansas City Chiefs

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Quarterback

Cleveland: It took a little while last season for everything to click under the new offensive structure, but Mayfield was the QB11 in all of fantasy football from Weeks 11-17. He’s being completely written off currently with his current ADP, but he’ll absolutely have his moments of relevancy throughout the 2021 campaign. With that being said, this might not be the week that we want to consider him for our starting lineups. Without the guaranteed passing volume that many other QBs see in the NFL, Mayfield should only be strongly considered when he has an incredible matchup. Cleveland is going to establish the run heavily in this game to attempt to keep Mahomes and the Chiefs offense on the sidelines and Mayfield might take a back seat here in week one. He can be viewed as a mid-range QB2.

Kansas City: This Browns defense looks a lot different than it did last year and it seems like a team that is ready to make a deep playoff run with the offense now figured out and the investments they’ve made on the other side of the ball. However, Mahomes is still going to be a top-tier fantasy option in this one. You drafted Mahomes as either the first or second QB off the board, so you’re starting him every single week, no matter the matchup.

Running Backs

Cleveland: Did you know that there are only two RBs in the entire NFL since 2018 that have more than 3,000 rushing yards, have averaged more than 5 YPC, and have more than 12 rushing touchdowns? Derrick Henry and Chubb are the entire list. Chubb has 3,557 rushing yards and 28 touchdowns during that time frame while averaging an absurd 5.23 YPC. As far as pure running ability, Chubb might be the best back in the entire NFL. His vision, contact balance, and power are on display with every single run and he’s put up ridiculous efficiency metrics through his first few seasons in the league. While the Chiefs were a top-10 defense last year in terms of rushing touchdowns per game allowed with only .8, Chubb’s going to see plenty enough volume in this game to offset the potential difficulties he could have finding the end zone. Chubb can be viewed as a top-8 option in week one. Kareem Hunt has proven that he can have plenty of value for fantasy football still as the change-of-pace option to Chubb in this Cleveland backfield. He’s still heavily involved as a receiver and should see enough work to at least put himself in the high-end RB3 conversation. It’s not a piece-of-cake matchup, so the scoring opportunities for both running backs might not be there, but Hunt should do enough to return that value.

Kansas City: In this offense, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has all the upside in the world. He’s an incredible talent – particularly as a receiver – but he didn’t see enough consistent volume to reach his full potential in 2020. Is 2021 going to be a different story? Will we see CEH heavily utilized in this offense? It’s impossible to say heading into this weekend’s games, but the potential is still there. While the Browns allowed a mere 16.4 fantasy points per game to the RB position last season, CEH will have plenty of opportunities to find the end zone. Until we see what exactly his role is – and whether or not it’s changed – CEH can be viewed as a high-end RB2 with upside.

Wide Receivers

Cleveland: It’s undeniable that OBJ has been a disappointment for fantasy managers each of the past two seasons. He’s struggled to stay healthy and he never truly got on the same page with Baker last season before he was done for the year. However, this is a new year and OBJ has been spending plenty of time this off-season working with Baker on their chemistry and connection. We can’t forget the talent that Beckham has when he’s on the field and he still has the ability to make some truly jaw-dropping plays. Beckham has one of the better matchups in all of football this week lining up against Mike Hughes for the Chiefs, who allowed 1.29 yards per every route covered last season. Beckham can be viewed as a low-end WR2 this week. Jarvis Landry has been the model of consistency over the past couple of seasons. However, while he fills a very valuable role for the Browns offense, that hasn’t exactly led to top-tier fantasy production. He’ll see his 6-8 targets per game, but if he doesn’t find the end zone, he’s unlikely to crack the top-30 at the WR position. He can be viewed as a safe low-end WR3 this week.

Kansas City: While the Browns have brought in some very talented players to their secondary this off-season, it doesn’t matter who they line up opposite of Cheetah. He’s going to break away for a big play at some point during the game. Tyreek Hill is one of the best wideouts in the game and he’s essentially matchup-proof, as long as Mahomes is playing QB. He can be started as a top-3 option on the week. Mecole Hardman certainly possesses ridiculous upside in this offense if he can step forward into the WR2 role in this offense. Unfortunately, that’s far from a guarantee based on what we’ve seen from him previously. At this point, Hardman’s simply a player to stash on your bench until we can see what he becomes. If he shows out in this matchup, he might be worth looking at in future weeks as a FLEX or maybe even higher. But for right now, dropping him into your starting lineup is simply not worth the risk until we see it happen on the football field.

Tight Ends

Cleveland: There’s the potential for one of the Browns TEs to take a step forward and be a solid fantasy option, but with Austin Hooper, Harrison Bryant, and David Njoku all healthy, it’s unlikely that we ever consider one of them a “lock” for your starting lineup.

Kansas City: Did you know that Kelce has finished as a top-2 fantasy TE every year since 2016? It’s simply remarkable what he’s been able to do for so long and he’s one of the safest players you can roll into your lineup every single week. While the Browns have a solid run defense and secondary, they were incredibly susceptible to TEs last season and allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. Kelce’s the TE1 this week and nearly every week moving forward.

FantasyProjection Buster: This game could turn into a shootout pretty quickly. If that’s the case, Baker could end up with a higher fantasy output than I’m predicting.

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Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 4:25pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Patriots -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 43.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Dolphins 20.25, Patriots 23.25

Miami Dolphins

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New England Patriots

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Quarterback

Miami: It was a perfect storm for Tua last year that caused people to question his abilities. Tua was still coming off of a brutal injury, it was a shortened off-season, his receiving corps was underwhelming and dealing with injury, and Herbert outperforming him certainly didn’t help. However, we need to remember just how talented Tua is at playing the QB position. He’s incredibly accurate and intelligent and he’s going to succeed in simply getting the ball out and into his playmaker’s hands. While I have optimism for Tua from a season-long perspective, this week isn’t one that I’m looking to play him if I can avoid it. The Patriots’ defense took a major step backward last year, but they had several key players opt-out due to COVID-19. Now with a loaded defense again, they’re going to get back to wreaking havoc on opposing offenses. Tua’s certainly going to have his moments this season where we can plug him in as a low-end QB1 due to the matchup. However, he shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than a low-end QB2 in this matchup.

New England: It’s Mac Jones time, friends! After one of the most surprising moves of the off-season, Cam Newton is out in New England and the Jones era has now begun! While this is good news for the rest of the weapons in this offense, it doesn’t necessarily mean fantastic things for Jones himself from a fantasy perspective. He doesn’t offer much mobility, so his fantasy output is already capped, and the receiving weapons here in New England aren’t exactly among the best in the NFL where they’re going to be able to create fantasy production for him routinely. In fact, it might not be pretty in his first NFL game ever going up against the team that was tied for first last year in interceptions. If you’re looking for a streaming defense, Miami’s probably still on your waiver wire and a solid choice. Jones can be viewed as a QB3 this week and most weeks moving forward.

Running Backs

Miami: After everyone had a mini panic attack based on Malcolm Brown‘s usage in the first pre-season game, Myles Gaskin has seen his stock bounce back up and optimism return heading into the 2021 season. Gaskin was listed at the top of the Dolphins depth chart for week one and he should see plenty of work in this matchup. While the Patriots defense is going to make life difficult on Gaskin and the Dolphins offensive line, Gaskin comes with an extremely safe floor each week because of his involvement as a receiver. Last year, Gaskin saw 47 targets in the 10 games he played and he reeled in an absurd 87% of them for 9.5 YPR. Those are fantastic numbers for an RB and he should continue to be peppered with targets with Tua at QB. He can be viewed as a low-end RB2 this week that might not put up crazy numbers because of the matchup, but he’s going to give you a very safe floor.

New England: With Newton at QB, Harris was someone that would see plenty of work in-between the 20s, but he would absolutely surrender the most valuable fantasy opportunities to Newton around the goal-line. Harris’ scoring potential was completely hampered by Newton’s presence and it forced him to stay down consensus draft boards. However, Newton is no longer in town and Jones is certainly not going to be running QB Power from the 5-yard line this year. While Harris came flying up my draft board with the Newton news, it’s still worth tempering expectations for him in 2021. There are still plenty of other running backs on this roster that will steal work away from him and there’s the potential that Rhamondre Stevenson works his way in more around the goal-line because of his size. Harris is an incredibly talented and efficient running back, but it’s worth remembering that he’s still a Patriots RB. If you drafted him this year, you’re most likely contemplating playing him this week based on where he was going in pre-draft ADP. Against the Dolphins – who were top-10 in the NFL last year in allowing fantasy points to the RB position – Harris should be viewed as a high-end RB3/low-end RB2. Meanwhile, Stevenson, James White, and JJ Taylor all should see some work in this matchup, but it’s not going to be enough to push them into FLEX consideration. They can remain on your bench.

Wide Receivers

Miami: One of the players I’ve been most excited about watching this season is Jaylen Waddle. His speed and playmaking ability are going to be on full display in this matchup against the Patriots and he could make a big statement right away. While the Patriots were a top-10 unit in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs last season, Stephon Gilmore is on the PUP list which is a huge hit for this unit. Waddle should see a minimum of six targets in this game and he has the skillset to make those count for fantasy football. He can be viewed as a low-end WR3 with upside this week. Devante Parker is healthy and suiting up for this matchup, but we shouldn’t be racing to drop him into our starting lineups. It’s quite possible that he takes a back seat to Waddle, Gaskin, and Gesicki in this matchup. He’ll have a handful of targets – which he has the talent to make count – but we shouldn’t be viewing him as anything more than a low-end FLEX option.

New England: As of right now, the only Patriots WR that you should be considering starting is Jakobi Meyers. He’s going to compete with the TEs for the lead in target share in this offense and he’s developed into a very solid WR that absolutely has the skillset to make an impact for fantasy lineups. With that being said, this is an extremely tough matchup for opposing wideouts. The Dolphins boast a secondary with Byron Jones, Xavier Howard, and Noah Igbinoghene that should be able to keep Meyers in check for the majority of the game. He’ll have his games where he’s a top-30 WR, but Meyers is simply a low-end FLEX option in week one.

Tight Ends

Miami: Gesicki is going to suit up for this matchup against the Patriots and he’s absolutely in the top-12 conversation here. While the Patriots were the third toughest matchup for opposing fantasy TEs in 2020, Gesicki’s going to be involved enough where he can be considered a solid start. He’ll need to find the end zone to push his way into the top-8 or so, but simply based on the TE position and how it operates, you should feel comfortable starting him this week.

New England: The New England Patriots spent big money this off-season to bring in Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry into this offense. The Patriots only ran 12-personnel (1RB/2TE) sets 2% of the time in 2020 and Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels made sure that that would not happen again this season. Jonnu’s the TE you’ll want in this offense with the role he’s going to play. He’s going to consistently be put in pre-snap motion and given free releases and short passes to help create after the catch. They’ll line him up in the backfield from time to time and simply do everything they can to get the ball in his hands. The Dolphins were a top-7 unit against opposing TEs in 2020, but Smith is going to see enough volume where the matchup really won’t matter all that much. Start him as a top-10 option this week. Henry’s going to fill an equally valuable role for this offense and operate up the seam and over the middle of the field, but it might not lead to as much consistent fantasy production as Smith. Henry can be viewed as a mid-range TE2.

FantasyProjection Buster: It’s a bit of a leap of faith with Waddle since we’ve never seen him in an NFL regular-season game, so he could fall short of my expectations if he struggles in his first NFL action.