The Game Plan: Week 4 Edition (2021 Fantasy Football)

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles

Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Chiefs -7
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 54.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Chiefs 30.75, Eagles 23.75

Kansas City Chiefs

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Philadelphia Eagles

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Quarterback

Kansas City: Patrick Mahomes had a tough go of it last week against a Chargers pass defense that did their best to stifle the Chiefs’ dynamic passing attack. While Mahomes’ stats look a little rough on the surface, he was let down by his receivers on multiple occasions and was credited with three passes dropped, one of which led to an interception. Mahomes was trying to do too much out there – which normally works – but the Chargers played sound defense and they came away with the victory. Kansas City is now last place in the division and you know that they’re going to come out here on fire in this matchup against Philadelphia. Mahomes belongs right back in your starting lineup as a top-5 option this week.

Philadelphia: Things did not exactly go well for Jalen Hurts last Monday night against the Dallas Cowboys. He was inconsistent with his accuracy and he struggled with decision-making, but yet he still finished as a top-10 QB because of a late garbage-time touchdown and his rushing ability. Hurts now gets to take on the Chiefs defense, which has been regarded as one of the toughest pass defenses in recent history, but they are currently allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs and they rank dead last in Total DVOA. The Eagles might not have the pass-catchers to blow the doors off of the Chiefs’ defense, but we should at least feel comfortable putting Hurts back into our starting lineups in week four. He can be viewed as a low-end QB1.

Running Backs

Kansas City: Going into the week, there was a lot of concern centering around Clyde Edwards-Helaire and whether or not he appeared to be a landmine in starting lineups this year. Before week three, he was just the RB47 in fantasy football and had done very little to inspire confidence from his fantasy managers moving forward. In a matchup against the Chargers run defense though, this was a make-or-break game though for him and he came through with a top-tier performance. CEH finished with exactly 100 rushing yards and he was able to find the end zone as a receiver on one of his two targets. He looked like a different runner out there in week three which is evidenced by the fact that he had 3.41 Yards After Contact per Attempt and forced six missed tackles. Coming into that matchup, he only had forced one missed tackle on the entire season. Looking ahead to week four, we shouldn’t be expecting the type of performance we saw in week three, but CEH absolutely still belongs in your starting lineups. The Eagles are allowing the 10th most rushing yards per game this season with 120.5 and there hasn’t been a game yet this season where Edwards-Helaire has seen less than 13 carries. Without a sizable workload through the air though, it’s unlikely that he ever pushes his way into the top-12 as we had hoped. He can be viewed as a mid-range/low-end RB2 this week against the Eagles.

Philadelphia: How does someone of Miles Sanders‘ talent level see only two total carries in a game? The Eagles fell behind early last week against the Cowboys and they completely abandoned their run game and chose to rely on Hurts and his passing ability. As a result, Sanders completely disappointed fantasy managers and crushed their chances of winning if he was in the starting lineup. Looking forward, there’s a very good chance that the Eagles fall behind early on again this week against the Chiefs. Now that we know there’s the possibility that Nick Sirianni will completely go away from his running game, Sanders becomes an extremely volatile option in week four. He has the talent to make an impact and the Eagles would be smart to lean on him heavily to keep Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field, but there’s no guarantee that that will happen. Sanders can be viewed as a low-end RB2.

Wide Receivers

Kansas City: After his 197-yard performance in week one against Cleveland, Tyreek Hill has been extremely quiet. He’s posted just 70 receiving yards over the past two weeks to go with zero touchdowns and he’s just the WR68 in that time frame. Better days are ahead though for the speedy wideout and he should continue to remain in your starting lineups as a locked-in WR1. With Hill being a non-factor in this offense essentially over the past two weeks, Mecole Hardman has been able to step up and put together a couple of solid fantasy performances. However, it’s still not enough reliable volume to view Hardman as a confident start in the FLEX. With just three targets last week, it’s a complete risk to put Hardman in your starting lineups. He’ll need to score for you to be happy that you took the chance on him.

Philadelphia: Since going for 71 yards and a score in week one against the Falcons, DeVonta Smith has totaled just 44 receiving yards through his last two games. He had a tough matchup in week three against Trevon Diggs, who is absolutely playing out of his mind this year, but he’s been a bit of a disappointment for fantasy managers that thought they had a locked-in WR2 moving forward. Against the Chiefs defense that is allowing the 9th-most fantasy points to opposing WRs so far this season, Smith belongs back in your starting lineup as a high-end FLEX option. If he can’t get it done here though, in this plus matchup, it might be time to start being concerned about Smith and his fantasy outlook in this Hurts-led offense. Jalen Reagor actually came out last week and led this Eagles team in targets. Due to Smith drawing coverage primarily from Diggs, Reagor was able to operate against softer coverage and he put up a decent performance with the opportunity. Moving forward though, this passing game is too inconsistent to trust Reagor in your starting lineups as anything more than a low-end FLEX play with a wide range of outcomes.

Tight Ends

Kansas City: While Hill has struggled the past two weeks, Travis Kelce has just kept right on rolling. Through the first three games of the season, Kelce is averaging 6.6 receptions, 96.3 receiving yards, and one touchdown per contest. Against the defense that is allowing the 8th most fantasy points to opposing TEs, Kelce still remains locked-in to the TE1 spot in consensus rankings.

Philadelphia: After missing practice most of the week, Zach Ertz came out and saw a 17.9% target share. Not only did he see seven targets, but he was highly productive with them and also ended up finding the end zone. Moving forward, this situation in Philadelphia may end up being just like Dallas’ TE room. One player might pop off for a big game here or there, but week in and week out they’re most likely going to cannibalize each other from a fantasy perspective. Ertz can be viewed as a mid-range TE2 in week four against Kansas City. Dallas Goedert was a very popular add in the middle rounds of drafts this off-season, but with Ertz still on this roster, it made very little sense to pay that price for him. In week three, Goedert took a complete back seat to Ertz and he saw just four targets to Ertz’s seven. While Goedert still has big-play ability, as evidenced by his 33 Yards Per Reception in week three, he’s now very difficult to trust in your starting lineups moving forward. He can be viewed as a mid-range TE2 this week.

FantasyProjection Buster: The Philadelphia TE room.

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Carolina Panthers vs Dallas Cowboys

Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Cowboys -5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 50.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Cowboys  27.75, Panthers 22.75

Carolina Panthers

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Dallas Cowboys

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Quarterback

Carolina: Sam Darnold is starting to settle into this Carolina offense and it’s translating to wins. The Panthers are now 3-0 on the season and Darnold’s starting to perform very well. Against a beatable defense in week three, Darnold had a 67.6% completion rate and averaged 8.9 Yards Per Attempt. While he didn’t have any passing touchdowns, he was able to find the end zone twice as a runner and he was a solid streaming option in week three. Heading into week four, Darnold’s right back on the streaming radar against a Dallas secondary that’s struggling so far this season. He can be viewed as a mid-range QB2 with upside.

Dallas: After throwing 58 passes in week one against Tampa Bay, Prescott has just had 54 attempts over the course of his last two games. Prescott was incredibly efficient in week three against the Eagles though and he threw for 238 passing yards and three scores on just 26 attempts. This offense is cooking and Dak’s getting the job done for fantasy football – aside from week two when he took a back seat to the run game. Looking ahead to week four, this will be a fun matchup to watch as the Dallas offense gets to take on the No. 1 ranked defense in Total DVOA through three weeks. The Panthers are just allowing a mere 146 passing yards per game on average so far and this will be their first big test to see if they’re a legitimate unit or not. Prescott can be viewed as a mid-range/low-end QB1.

Running Backs

Carolina: With Christian McCaffrey now sidelined for the next few weeks, Chuba Hubbard will step in as the lead option in this backfield. While he’s not going to see CMC’s massive opportunity share in this Panthers offense, he’s going to be a solid option for fantasy lineups due to the volume on the ground he’ll have. Hubbard was electric in 2019 at Oklahoma State and he has the speed to break off some big runs too, so don’t rule out that possibility either. With that being said, he’s unlikely to see a significant target share, which will prevent him from being viewed as a top-15 option. Against Dallas, Hubbard can be viewed as a low-end RB2.

Dallas: After a disappointing week one performance, Ezekiel Elliott has silenced the haters over the past two weeks. He’s now seen 33 carries for 166 yards and three touchdowns and is the RB3 over that time frame. Despite seeing Pollard become more and more of a factor in this offense, Zeke’s dominating and he’s helping carry fantasy lineups to victories. Looking ahead to week four, Zeke has one of the most intriguing positional matchups in all of football this week. The Panthers are allowing just 45 rushing yards per game this season and they’ve been absolutely dominant against opposing running attacks. Will Zeke be able to overcome this tough matchup on paper? Or are the Panthers for real and could they keep Zeke and this Cowboys running game in check? It’s going to be fun to find out. Zeke can be viewed as a low-end RB1 this week. Tony Pollard continues to be a key complement to this Cowboys offense and he logged 12 touches again on Monday night. While he wasn’t able to find the end zone this past week to boost his fantasy stock, he remained incredibly efficient and showed his explosiveness time and time again. In a tough matchup against the Panthers’ run defense, Pollard should still see a minimum of 10 touches, but he might not be able to remain as efficient in this game. He’ll need to score for fantasy managers to feel comfortable that they played him and against the defense that’s only allowing .3 rushing touchdowns per game, that’s not a risk I’m willing to take. Pollard can be viewed as a mid-range RB3 this week.

Wide Receivers

Carolina: We’re now through three weeks of the season and DJ Moore has been absolutely on fire. He now has 22 receptions, a 71% completion rate, 285 receiving yards, and one touchdown. He’s providing fantasy managers with an incredibly high floor and is also bringing plenty of upside week in and week out. With CMC out of the lineup for the next few weeks too, Moore should see an even bigger target share. Against the Dallas secondary, which has been playing much better recently with the help of Trevon Diggs, Moore can be viewed as a high-end WR2. Robby Anderson has been a massive disappointment for fantasy managers in 2021. Despite being ultra-productive last season, Anderson has essentially disappeared in this Panthers offense and he was on the edge of being dropped from lineups everywhere after last week’s performance. However, he’s worth holding onto now to see what happens with the target distribution in the wake of McCaffrey’s absence. You can’t start Anderson this week in your fantasy lineups just because of how little he’s been involved through three weeks, but you should still hold onto him to see what happens this week against Dallas. Terrace Marshall has seen just enough work in this offense over the first few weeks of the season to remain fantasy-relevant, but he’s not doing enough to push his way into the FLEX conversation. Moving forward, there’s the possibility that he sees an uptick in work with CMC out of the lineup, but we can’t trust that just yet outside of deeper formats.

Dallas: Amari Cooper was a bit banged up last week with bruised ribs, but he powered through and ended up playing against the Eagles on Monday Night Football. However, he wasn’t a big part of the game plan and only reeled in three of four targets for 26 yards. Cooper now has a tougher matchup this week in front of him against the Panthers’ defense that’s allowing the 7th fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs this season. While Jaycee Horn is sidelined for the foreseeable future, this is still a stout unit that could keep the Cowboys’ passing game in check. Cooper can be viewed as a mid-range/low-end WR2 this week. CeeDee Lamb wasn’t especially involved in week three against the Eagles, but he still did enough to not hurt fantasy managers. On his three targets, Lamb was able to reel in all of them for 66 yards and no score. This is a bit of a tougher matchup against the Panthers’ secondary on paper, but the Cowboys’ offense has been powerful enough recently that the receivers should be fine from a fantasy perspective. Lamb can be viewed as a mid-range WR2.

Tight Ends

Carolina: None of the Panthers’ TEs should be considered for fantasy football this week.

Dallas: Dalton Schultz came through for fantasy lineups last week with a monstrous performance. That is, assuming you actually started him. Through the first two weeks, Schultz and Blake Jarwin had essentially split targets and it seemed like this was going to continue to be a mess for fantasy purposes moving forward. While Schultz did end up with seven targets to Jarwin’s two in week three, it’s worth noting that not much else changed. Jarwin and Schultz ran the exact same number of receiving routes in week three with 21. Dak just happened to lean on Schultz when he was in the game and it led to a two-touchdown performance. At this point, Schultz is a fine option to pick up and start if you’re in a pinch at the TE position. However, it’s important to note that Jarwin didn’t completely fade away from this offense which makes projecting forward a tricky thing. There’s still a wide range of outcomes for Schultz in week four. He can be viewed as a mid-range TE2.

FantasyProjection Buster: The Dallas TE room.

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Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers

Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 4:05pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: 49ers -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 52 points
Implied Vegas point totals: 49ers 27.5, Seahawks 24.5

Seattle Seahawks

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San Francisco 49ers

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Quarterback

Seattle: Russell Wilson has been stellar to start the season. He’s averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game, he has a YPA over 10.0, and he has a 7:0 TD/INT ratio. While he didn’t perform incredibly well for fantasy last week against the Vikings – just one passing touchdown – there’s zero reason to panic and move him down in our Rest-of-Season rankings. Wilson now gets to take on the 49ers’ defense that is struggling with injuries in the secondary and is allowing the 7th most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season. We should be in line for a bounce-back fantasy performance from the star QB here.

San Francisco: Jimmy Garoppolo put up a decent performance in week three against the Packers, but he lost out on a red-zone opportunity to Trey Lance. With limited upside due to his skill set, plus the potential that he’s pulled at any point during any upcoming game for Lance, Jimmy G shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than a risky low-end QB2 option.

Running Backs

Seattle: Chris Carson was stellar in week three against the Vikings. While he only had 14 total opportunities, he averaged 6.7 YPC and was able to find the end zone as a runner too. He’s providing a very high floor for fantasy lineups with his efficiency, but there are reasons to be concerned about Carson’s ability to push his way into the top-10 consistently. Through three weeks, Carson is only averaging 14.6 Receiving Routes Run and he has just five total targets on the season. Part of what made Carson so dominant for fantasy lineups last season when he was healthy was his high target volume. Unfortunately, it seems like that’s not going to be a thing in this offense and he’s going to have to continue to be incredibly efficient and/or find the end zone with regularity. With that being said, there’s a very good chance of that happening again here this week against the 49ers defense that is allowing 122.3 rushing yards per game.

San Francisco: Elijah Mitchell was limited again in practice on Wednesday, so it’s unclear whether or not he’ll be able to return for this matchup against Seattle. If Mitchell does play, he can be viewed as a low-end RB2. If Mitchell doesn’t play, Trey Sermon should get the nod again as the starting option and he can be viewed as a high-end RB3. However, we’ll update as we get more information.

Wide Receivers

Seattle: After starting out the season on a nuclear pace, Tyler Lockett came crashing back down to earth in week three as he has been known to do. Lockett had just a 12.5% target share and a very surprising 2.8 ADOT. Metcalf was the star of the offense and Lockett didn’t have much opportunity to make an impact for fantasy football. After seeming like Lockett was on pace to finish the year as a top-3 WR, we were reminded just how volatile he is again despite the new offense. The 49ers’ secondary is reeling after key injuries, so Lockett could very easily be in line for a big performance here again in week four. There’s also just as strong of a possibility that he finishes with less than 40 receiving yards again as he did in week three. He can be viewed as a mid-range WR2 this week that accounts for his wide range of outcomes. DK Metcalf had been very quiet through the first two weeks of the season, but he emerged in a big way on Sunday. Metcalf had a 28.1% target share and he reeled in six of nine targets for 107 yards and a touchdown. There are going to be games where Lockett is the top fantasy wideout in this offense, but then there are also going to be games where Metcalf takes that crown. With the upside that Metcalf presents, he belongs in your starting lineup every week as a low-end WR1.

San Francisco: After being one of fantasy football’s most disappointing draft picks the first two weeks, Brandon Aiyuk got back onto the field in week three and saw a healthy 39 Receiving Routes Run. This opportunity led to a 15.4% target share and he was able to connect with Garoppolo and find the end zone. Moving forward, it appears as though Aiyuk is out of the “doghouse” and can be entered back into the weekly fantasy football conversation. We know his talent level and how he can produce when he’s given a significant opportunity, but there are still some unknowns with Kyle Shanahan and what he’s doing with this WR corps. Against a Seattle secondary that’s currently giving up the 13th most fantasy points to opposing WRs, Aiyuk can be viewed as a low-end WR3. Deebo Samuel has started out the season on fire and he now has 30 targets through three games. He’s currently on pace for 113 receptions, 1,892 yards, and 5.6 touchdowns and he’s remaining a key and integral part of this 49ers’ passing attack. While Aiyuk’s re-emergence could potentially mean a dip in target share for Samuel, there’s no reason why we shouldn’t continue to view him as a low-end WR2 for the time being. Samuel should draw coverage from Tre Flowers this week who is currently allowing an 88% catch rate on the season and 1.62 Yards Per Route Covered. Samuel has tremendous upside this week.

Tight Ends

Seattle: Gerald Everett had been splitting time with Will Dissly up to this point of the season, but it appears that Everett has taken over this TE room as the clear TE1. Everett ran a total of 26 receiving routes on Sunday to Dissly’s nine. This translated to a 15.6% target share and Everett provided a solid floor for fantasy managers that took the shot on him. If this trend continues where Everett is going to see the majority of the routes at the TE position, he’s worth slotting into your starting lineup if you’re in a pinch.

San Francisco: George Kittle had a bit of a disappointing fantasy performance in week two, but he bounced back in a big way in week three. Against the Packers, Kittle reeled in seven catches for 92 yards and no score. While he has yet to find the end zone this season, Kittle is getting the job done for fantasy with his extremely high floor. Against the Seahawks this week, Kittle can be viewed as a mid-range TE1 yet again.

FantasyProjection Buster: Tyler Lockett‘s volatility for fantasy purposes is now back in play.

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Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams

Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 4:05pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Rams -4.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 54.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Rams 29.5, Cardinals 25

Arizona Cardinals

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Los Angeles Rams

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Quarterback

Arizona: It wasn’t all sunshine-and-roses for Kyler Murray in week three, but he came through for fantasy still with his rushing ability. With the way this Arizona offense is performing right now, there’s very little reason we should doubt Murray being a top-3 option every single week. Against the Rams, who are allowing just .7 passing touchdowns per game currently, Murray is still a rock-solid option due to his high floor from his rushing ability. Start Murray with full confidence again in week four.

Los Angeles: Matthew Stafford has been unstoppable so far this season in a Rams uniform. He has a 70% completion rate on the season, nearly 1,000 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and just one interception. He absolutely shredded the Bucs defense last week and the Cardinals’ defense simply isn’t going to have an answer for him and this Rams passing attack in week four. Stafford deserves to be in your starting lineup every single week moving forward if you have him on your roster.

Running Backs

Arizona: Chase Edmonds continues to perform well for fantasy purposes through three weeks with the volume he’s receiving in this Arizona offense. While he isn’t getting a ton done on the ground, he’s making up for it with his high target share week in and week out. Last week against Jacksonville, Edmonds saw a 20.5% target share which is giving fantasy managers a solid baseline time and time again. We know he’s not going to be used around the goal-line, so his upside is limited, but he’s one of the safer options at the RB position currently. He can continue to be viewed as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 in week four against the Rams. James Conner figured to be more involved in the offense in week three due to the projected game script. The Cardinals were heavy favorites and they eventually pulled away in the second half to a big victory over the Jaguars. With this game script, Conner was utilized heavily around the goal line and he ended up cashing in for multiple touchdowns on the ground. While he was a solid option for fantasy managers that played him in a pinch last week, we shouldn’t be expecting this type of production from him every week moving forward. He’s only worth considering for your starting lineup in matchups where the Cardinals are projected to be up by a significant amount where they’ll turn to their run game. Even in that instance though, he could still easily lose goal-line touches to Murray and disappoint managers that took the chance on him. In week four against the Rams defense, Conner’s a low-end RB3 at best.

Los Angeles: At the time of writing, there isn’t much clarity as to whether or not Darrell Henderson is going to be healthy enough to suit up in this matchup. Depending on the practice reports throughout the rest of the week, Henderson belongs in your starting lineup if he plays. We’ll continue to update as the week progresses.

Wide Receivers

Arizona: DeAndre Hopkins was a true game-time decision last week and he ended up being out on the field as more of a decoy than anything else. Hopkins only reeled in three of six targets for 21 yards and no score, which left fantasy managers frustrated that they started him. We’ll have to monitor the practice reports this week to see what his recovery from this rib injury is like, but if he does end up playing in week four, he’s worth starting. He’s simply too talented of a player to let sit on your bench. We’re now through three weeks and Christian Kirk has been one of the most efficient WRs in the NFL. Out of all WRs and TEs that have a minimum of 15 targets on the season, Kirk has the highest catch rate of any with 88.2%. While that’s certainly impressive, the best part is that he’s doing this with an ADOT of 15.9, while the other players that are around him are all at an ADOT of 7.0 or lower. Kirk’s been one of the biggest steals in drafts this year and he should continue to be in starting lineups moving forward. Even with a tougher matchup against the Rams passing defense, Kirk can be viewed as a high-end FLEX option in week four. Rondale Moore had been playing lights out over the past few weeks, but one of my biggest concerns with the Cardinals offense showed up on Sunday. With this loaded of a receiving corps, my concern for Moore and his season-long outlook has been consistency. With playing under 30 snaps each of the previous two games, Moore was living on insane efficiency and that made it difficult to feel confident in placing him in starting lineups over some more stable options. This past week against Jacksonville, Moore only saw three targets and he hauled in two of them for one net receiving yard. We shouldn’t be completely off of Moore after this performance, but it does serve a purpose to remind us about his potential inconsistencies in this offense until he’s seeing the majority of the snaps. We simply need to adjust our expectations and view him as a FLEX play each week moving forward where we can live with the big performances or the games where he disappears in the offense. AJ Green is seeing a bit of a career resurgence here in Arizona. With Hopkins not at 100%, Green took advantage of a plus matchup and he crossed over the 100-yard receiving mark. We’re not at the point where we can really trust Green in our starting lineups as anything more than a low-end FLEX play, but he’s now looking like he’s not completely done for fantasy purposes just yet.

Los Angeles: It’s Cooper Kupp‘s world and we’re just living in it. Kupp now has a 35.5% target share through the first three weeks of the season and he’s undoubtedly been the best WR in the entire NFL. While we all know that the “on pace for” arguments are not to be taken seriously, it’s still fun to imagine what could be. For Kupp, he’s currently on pace for 141 receptions, 2,079 yards, and 28 touchdowns and I honestly think he might hit that. In all seriousness, Kupp is a locked-in top-5 WR every single week from here on out. Robert Woods certainly hasn’t lived up to expectations through the first three weeks of the season. Kupp is dominating the target share and Woods hasn’t had much opportunity to make an impact. Even in a game last week where Stafford threw for 341 yards, Woods only accounted for 33 of those and we need to officially be concerned. Moving forward, we can’t trust Woods in our starting lineups as anything more than a low-end WR3. He still has upside due to the offense he’s playing in, but more often than not that upside is falling to another WR. He’s still one of the most talented wideouts in the game, but it’s just not happening in this offense with Stafford at QB.

Tight Ends

Arizona: After putting together a dominant performance in week two, Maxx Williams disappeared again in week three and only put up three receptions for 19 yards. He’s not worth rostering outside of deeper formats.

Los Angeles: Tyler Higbee had a quiet week two, but he got right back to business in week three against the Bucs. Higbee reeled in all of his five targets for 38 yards and a score and finished the week as a top-10 TE. He has a tough matchup in front of him this week on paper though as the Cardinals are allowing just 1.6 fantasy points per game to opposing TEs. The offense might just be too high-powered for that to matter though and Higbee can be viewed as a low-end TE1.

FantasyProjection Buster: It now has to be recognized that Rondale Moore has a wide range of outcomes every week.