Carolina Panthers vs Miami Dolphins

Date/Time: Sunday November 28, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Panthers -2
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 42 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Panthers 22, Dolphins 20

Quarterback

Cam Newton: Newton put up 26.2 fantasy points in his first start of 2021, tying him for QB4 in Week 11 fantasy scoring. He completed 21 of 27 passes for 189 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions, adding 10-46-1 rushing. Newton faces a Miami defense that has been surprisingly frisky at times and lackluster at others. The Dolphins bottled up Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ offense in Week 10, only to let Joe Flacco and the Jets throw for 291 yards and two touchdowns against them in Week 11. The Dolphins are allowing 21.3 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the third-highest total in the league. Cam is the QB8 this week and a DraftKings bargain at $5,600.

Tua Tagovailoa: Tua didn’t start against the Ravens in Week 10, but he was brought in to finish off a 22-10 win, running for a touchdown that helped seal the deal. He started against the Jets last week and kept the momentum going, throwing for 273 yards and two touchdowns. The Jets’ pass defense, however, ranks dead last in DVOA and has struggled mightily. Tua faces a much tougher matchup this week against the Panthers, whose pass defense ranks fifth in DVOA. Still without injured WRs DeVante Parker and Will Fuller, Tua ranks QB16 this week and has a shaky floor due to the tricky matchup.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey: After limiting McCaffrey’s snaps in Week 9 and 10 following his return from a hamstring injury, the Panthers gave CMC a 90% snap share in Week 11. It was hard to tell the difference based on touch counts alone. McCaffrey had 18 touches on 29 snaps in Week 9, 23 touches on 44 snaps in Week 10, and 17 touches on 46 snaps in Week 10. The workload is secure, and McCaffrey’s soft tissue has been cooperating. He’s averaged 18.4 fantasy points per game since making his return, and he’s ranked RB1 this week against the Dolphins. CMC is a compelling DraftKings play at $9,000.

Myles Gaskin: Gaskin is no fantasy savior, but his touch volume has been bankable, giving him steady RB2 value. Over his last five games, Gaskin has 84-257-1 rushing and 17-73-2 receiving. That works out to 20.2 touches a game. His offensive line is terrible and his own talents are modest, so Gaskin is tied for RB19 in fantasy scoring over that stretch. But again, RB2 value based on bankable volume is what Gaskin investors have been getting, and that’s not bad. Gaskin is the RB21 this week against a quality Carolina defense. The Dolphins signed Phillip Lindsay this week, but it’s not clear if he’ll play this week, and he’s unlikely to have a substantial role if he does.

Wide Receivers

D.J. Moore: The hope is that Cam Newton can help revive Moore’s fantasy value after Sam Darnold dragged Moore down with him as he circled the drain. Our first data point is encouraging – Moore had 5-50-1 last week in Cam’s first start. Moore’s TD catch, his first since Week 4, was very much a product of Cam’s unique talents. Cam started to run what looked like a QB draw, a Washington linebacker and safety both vacated their zones to come up and stop it, and Cam pulled up short of the line of scrimmage and found Moore on a slant for an easy 10-yard score. Moore might see some of Xavien Howard‘s coverage Sunday in Miami, but Howard hasn’t been as imposing a matchup as he has been in the recent past, and the Dolphins are giving up 27.1 fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Moore is a high-end WR2 this week and a nice DraftKings value at $6,200.

Robby Anderson: Anderson had 5-30-0 last week in Cam Newton‘s first start of the season, and he’s had 9-67-1 on 12 targets over the last two weeks. The signs of life are encouraging, but Anderson hasn’t hit 40 receiving yards in a game since Week 4 and is still working his way back into the circle of trust. He lands at WR62 this week.

Jaylen Waddle: The continued absence of WRs DeVante Parker (hamstring) and Will Fuller (finger) have meant a target bonanza for Waddle. The rookie from Alabama has seen 57 targets over his last six games – a 23.9% target share. All that volume hasn’t exactly led to an avalanche of fantasy points, however. Waddle is averaging 6.9 yards per target over his last six games, and he hasn’t scored a touchdown since finding the end zone twice against the Jaguars in London in Week 6. Waddle hasn’t topped 83 receiving yards in a game this season. He’s a high-end WR3 this week against the Panthers, and I’m not especially drawn to him in DraftKings contests at $5,900.

Tight Ends

Mike Gesicki: The TE2 in fantasy scoring from Week 3 through Week 7, Gesicki has cooled off lately. Over his last four games, he’s had 12-152-0, making him the TE15 in half-point PPR scoring over that stretch. Gesicki is a midrange TE1 against the Panthers.

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Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants

Date/Time: Sunday November 28, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Eagles -3.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 45.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Eagles 24.5, Giants 21

Quarterback

Jalen Hurts: As Ryan McDowell noted on Twitter the other day, Hurts has finished as a top-12 fantasy scorer at quarterback 10 times this season, and no other quarterback has more than seven top-12 finishes. Hurts had 69 rushing yards and three TD runs last week in the Eagles’ 40-29 win over the Saints, fueling a 30.8-point fantasy performance. One concern is that the Eagles appear to have had a major philosophical shift on offense. From Week 3 to Week 7, Philadelphia’s running backs had 53 carries – an average of just 10.6 carries a game. In the last four weeks, the Eagles’ RBs have logged 123 carries – an average of 30.8 carries a game.

Daniel Jones: The wheels are coming off for Jones. Over the Giants’ first four games of the season, he threw four TD passes and one interception, averaging 296.0 passing yards per game. In the six games since, Jones has thrown four TD passes and six interceptions, averaging 173.7 passing yards a game. Jones hasn’t been able to salvage any fantasy value with his legs. He hasn’t run for a touchdown since Week 2, and he’s averaged 13.3 rushing yards over his last six games. Will the firing of Giants offensive coordinator Jason Garrett this week help matters at all? Let’s just say we’d be more optimistic if Garrett’s replacement were someone other than former Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens. Jones is a low-end QB2 this week against the Eagles.

Running Backs

Miles Sanders, Boston Scott: As noted in the Jalen Hurts report above, Eagles’ running backs have averaged 30.8 carries a game since Week 8. When that run-heavy stretch began, Sanders was out with an ankle injury, and it was Scott and Jordan Howard shouldering the rushing load, with a minor assist from rookie Kenneth Gainwell. Now, Sanders is back in a starting role, and Howard is going to miss Philly’s Week 12 game against the Giants with a knee injury. Last week, in his first game since Week 7, Sanders had 16-94-0 rushing but wasn’t targeted in the passing game. Scott has had 46-221-3 rushing and 5-31-0 receiving since becoming a regular in the Eagles’ RB rotation in Week 7. The Giants are a favorable matchup for the run-happy Eagles, giving up 21.7 fantasy points per game to running backs. Sanders is a midrange RB2 this week with some DraftKings appeal at a cost-efficient $5,100. Scott is a midrange RB3.

Saquon Barkley: Returning from an ankle injury, Barkley was used sparsely in his first game since Week 5, rushing six times for 35 yards and catching all six of his targets for 31 yards in the Giants’ Monday-night loss to the Buccaneers. In five games this season, Barkley has yet to top 57 rushing yards. His talent is undeniable, but Barkley is going to be ranked in RB2 range until we see a spark. You’re probably using him in season-long leagues unless you’re absolutely stacked at running back. And while his performances this season haven’t exactly wowed us, Barkley’s sale price of $6,300 on DraftKings is alluring.

Wide Receivers

DeVonta Smith: Over their last four games, the Eagles have run the ball on 67% of their offensive plays. Smith has seen just 21 targets over that span, though he’s made the most of them, with 14-258-3 receiving. He’s been the WR16 over that stretch thanks to hyper-efficiency: Smith has averaged 12.3 yards per target over those four games, and 21.4% of his catches have gone for touchdowns. It will be difficult if not impossible for Smith to maintain that sort of efficiency, but it also seems unlikely that the Eagles will continue to run the ball like a team that plays in the Big Ten rather than the NFC East. Smith is a low-end WR2 this week against the Giants. Fade him in DraftKings at $6,400.

Kadarius Toney: If you have any designs on using Toney in fantasy this week, you’ll have to monitor his status. He sustained a quad contusion in the Giants’ Monday-night loss to the Buccaneers and wasn’t practicing as of Wednesday. Toney was targeted four 12 times against the Buccaneers, but the vast majority of those targets were within a few yards of the line of scrimmage, and he finished with 7-40-0. If healthy, he’ll be a midrange WR4 against the Giants.

Sterling Shepard: Shepard is officially out for week 12 vs. the Eagles.

Kenny Golladay: In his first year with the Giants, Golladay has 20-322-0 in seven games. In his last three games, he’s had 3-40-0 on eight targets. That’s not exactly impact production from a receiver who was signed to a four-year, $72 million contract this spring. Golladay lands at WR54 in this week’s rankings and is barely on the radar in redraft leagues.

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert: Since Zach Ertz was traded from the Eagles to the Cardinals in late October, he’s averaged 11.3 fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR), while Goedert has averaged 7.8. In fairness to Goedert, the Eagles have only attempted passes on 33% of their offensive snaps over the last four weeks, and such minimal pass volume limits scoring opportunities. Goedert has actually enjoyed a massive 29.5% target share over Philly’s last four games, resulting in 16-205-0 on 23 targets. As Andrew Erickson notes, Goedert’s 31% target rate per route run leads all receivers and tight ends over the last four weeks. Unfortunately, Goedert hasn’t scored a touchdown since Oct. 3. He’s the TE8 this week.

Evan Engram: Engram had just 2-12-0 on five targets last week against the Buccaneers. He’s scored a touchdown in two of his last three games, but he’s averaging 29.5 receiving yards a game and is the TE24 in fantasy scoring. At $3,800 on DraftKings, Engram might be worth a shot in GPPs since he’ll be facing an Eagles defense that gives up 11.5 fantasy points per game to tight ends. Engram in the TE18 this week.

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Tennessee Titans vs New England Patriots

Date/Time: Sunday November 28, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Patriots -6.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 44 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Patriots 25.25, Titans 18.75

Quarterback

Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill was in a prime spot to be a top-5 fantasy QB in Week 11 against Houston, but the Titans’ offense self-imploded, and Tannehill threw for just 6.2 Yards Per Attempt, one touchdown, and four interceptions. While injuries to the receiving corps have certainly played a part in the offensive struggles, Tannehill just has not looked good over recent weeks. Against a Patriots defense that is playing lights out currently, there’s no way we can trust him in our starting lineups as anything more than a low-end QB2.

Mac Jones: Jones was essentially perfect as a passer last week against Atlanta (outside of his interception). He was routinely hitting his receivers in stride, he consistently made the correct read, and he kept the offense moving for New England. And with that being said, that near-perfect performance resulted in just 11 fantasy points. Without any sort of rushing ability, plus New England’s commitment to their run game, there’s virtually no upside with Jones unless they get engaged in a true shootout. With the way Tennessee has been playing recently, that’s unlikely to happen here and we could see the Patriots lean on the run again. Jones is a fine option as a low-end QB2 that’s unlikely to hurt your lineup, but he’s not going to help push your Superflex roster over the top either.

Running Backs

D’Onta Foreman: Foreman was hyped up as a solid play last week against Houston, but it wasn’t meant to be. He saw just seven carries for 25 yards to Adrian Peterson‘s nine for 40 yards, and Dontrell Hilliard also played a key role in the offense after being elevated from the practice squad. Peterson was released this week, but this is still a messy backfield in which Foreman, Hilliard, and Jeremy McNichols will all be factors (note: McNichols is now officially out for week 12). Foreman is a back-end RB3 for this week.

Dontrell Hilliard: Hilliard worked his way up from the practice squad last week and made his mark on the offense. He logged 63% of the snaps as the pass-catching option out of the backfield and saw 17 total opportunities in his first game action. While it’s a very risky play due to the uncertainty surrounding this Titans offense right now, Hilliard could be a solid fill-in option for fantasy managers this week against the Patriots, particularly with Adrian Peterson released this week. Hilliard can be viewed as a low-end RB3.

Damien Harris: Harris made the quick turnaround in Week 11 to play on Thursday night after being in the league’s concussion protocol and he looked impressive in the process, as he usually does. Harris had 10 carries for 56 yards and no score while adding one reception for nine yards in a game that was essentially out of hand from kickoff. While those numbers would be fine in a vacuum, it’s worth noting that he finished with fewer carries than Stevenson in this backfield and had a 39% snap count share to Stevenson’s 34% and Brandon Bolden‘s 27%. While the fact that Harris missed practice leading up to last week’s game could have played a role in his limited usage, it’s unclear whether or not that’s here to stay. In this matchup against Tennessee, we could see a near-even split yet again for the Patriots backfield. If that’s the case, Harris needs to be viewed as a high-end RB3.

Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson has had a wacky season up to this point that has involved him being a healthy scratch in some games to finishing with 25 fantasy points in others. It’s clear at this point though that Stevenson has earned himself a role in this Patriots offense and he’s now working his way into the weekly starter conversation for fantasy football. We don’t know exactly what the carry split is going to be like in this matchup where Harris and Stevenson will both be healthy, but Stevenson should at least see enough work to be a viable fill-in option for lineups that are in need at the RB position. He can be viewed as a mid-range RB3 this week.

Brandon Bolden: Bolden has remained involved enough in this offense to stay on the redraft radar, but he presents virtually no upside due to his skillset. He can remain on your league’s waiver wire.

Wide Receivers

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: At the time of writing, it looks like the Titans’ offense might have Westbrook-Ikhine as their only reliable receiving option for this week against the Patriots. With Julio Jones on IR, Marcus Johnson battling a hamstring injury, and AJ Brown dealing with a rib injury, Westbrook-Ikhine is the last man standing in this offense. While that resulted in 107 receiving yards this past week after AJB and Johnson left the game, he has a much tougher task in front of him this week with the Patriots defense that’s playing dominant football recently. If you are in an absolute pinch, Westbrook-Ikhine is a decent fill-in option due to the projected target share that he’ll see in this offense. However, the Patriots could simply take him away and force Tannehill to beat them with someone else. He’s a risky low-end FLEX play at best this week.

AJ Brown: AJ Brown will miss week 12’s game due to a rib injury.

Nelson Agholor: Agholor was able to take advantage of a breakdown in coverage this past week and find the end zone, but that doesn’t mean we should instantly put him on the redraft radar. Agholor had finished as the WR49, the WR123, and the WR68 the three weeks prior. There’s simply not enough yardage volume in this offense to go around for Agholor to be a consistent FLEX play, which means that Agholor should remain on your league’s waiver wire unless you are absolutely desperate.

Kendrick Bourne: Bourne has been a fairly reliable fantasy option over the past two weeks, but there’s a difference between being reliable and predictable. Bourne has just four targets in each of the past two games and that’s not going to be enough to put him squarely in the conversation for a trustworthy FLEX play week in and week out. He has plenty of upside, as we’ve seen the past two games, but there’s also a very low floor so we shouldn’t view him as anything more than a low-end FLEX option against the Titans.

Jakobi Meyers: Did you know that Meyers has finished inside the top-36 WRs just twice over the last seven games? He’s providing a high floor for fantasy managers each week and is consistently hovering around the WR40-WR48 range, but there’s very little upside with Meyers now that other receiving options have taken steps forward in this offense. Coming into the year, Meyers had some appeal as a fantasy asset due to the fact that Agholor and Bourne were unknown commodities. However, we’ve seen both of those receivers settle into their roles in this New England offense recently and Meyers’ target share is taking a hit because of it. With very little scoring upside, Meyers should be viewed as a mid-range FLEX play week in and week out.

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry: Before last week, Henry had scored at least once in six of the previous seven games for the Patriots. While he hadn’t been posting impressive yardage totals throughout that stretch, he was at least a viable fantasy option because of his propensity to find the end zone. However, fantasy managers got a taste of what Henry’s production is like when he doesn’t take one in for six last week against Atlanta as he posted just two receptions for 25 yards. Moving forward, Henry will need to be viewed as a high-end TE2 each week that is a complete touchdown-or-bust option.

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Atlanta Falcons vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Date/Time: Sunday November 28, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Falcons -1
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 46.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Falcons 23.75, Jaguars 22.75

Quarterback

Matt Ryan: Can Ryan bounce back from a nightmarish performance in the Falcons’ 25-0 Thursday-night loss to the Patriots in Week 11? Jacksonville would seem like a favorable matchup, but the Jaguars have been tough on opposing QBs lately. The last three quarterbacks to face the Jaguars – Josh Allen, Carson Wentz and Jimmy Garoppolo – have finished QB20, QB24, and QB16 in fantasy scoring those weeks. The Jaguars have held their last three opponents to two TD passes and an average of 206.7 passing yards per game. Ryan threw for 153 yards against the Patriots with no touchdowns and two interceptions, and he was sacked four times. The Falcons have been outscored 68-3 in their last two games. Ryan has zero TDs and four interceptions over that barren stretch, averaging 5.5 yards per pass attempt. He’s the QB26 this week. Don’t use him.

Trevor Lawrence: The No. 1 pick in this year’s NFL Draft has now gone three straight games without a TD passes. In 10 starts, Lawrence has eight touchdowns and nine interceptions, and he’s averaging 214.1 passing yards a game. Hopefully, we’ll one day look back on Lawrence’s rookie season, laugh it off as an anomaly, and blame it all on Urban Meyer. Lawrence is the QB25 this week.

Running Backs

Cordarrelle Patterson, Qadree Ollison, Mike Davis: Patterson got in a limited practice session on Wednesday, so there’s hope that he’ll be able to return from a high-ankle sprain this weekend. The Falcons could really use him. Patterson played only 15 snaps in Week 10 before going down, and Atlanta lost 43-3 to Dallas. Patterson was out for week 11, and Atlanta lost 25-0 to New England. The Falcons’ offense simply hasn’t been functional without him. Patterson is the RB12 in fantasy points per game this season, with 77-303-2 rushing and 39-473-5 receiving. If he suits up this week, he’ll be the RB14 (or the WR20 if you play in a league where only has receiver eligibility).

James Robinson: J-Rob’s yardage totals have been shrinking in recent weeks, possibly because he’s been playing through heel and knee injuries. Over his last three games, Robinson has 28-106-2 rushing and 7-53-0 receiving. The good news is that the touchdowns keep coming. Robinson has scored seven TDs in his last seven games. He has a favorable matchup this week against a Falcons run defense that ranks 24th in DVOA. Robinson is a low-end RB1 this week and a good value at $6,200 on DraftKings.

Wide Receivers

Russell Gage: With Calvin Ridley out indefinitely, Gage is the Falcons’ No. 1 receiver by default. That doesn’t mean much for fantasy though. Over his last five games, Gage has 16-180-1 and has twice been held without a single catch. He’s a midrange WR5 and a desperation play only in season-long leagues.

Marvin Jones: The Jaguars’ passing game just isn’t providing much fantasy value, so Jones’ status as Jacksonville’s No. 1 receiver doesn’t mean much. He’s scored one touchdown in his last eight games and has only topped 35 receiving yards twice in his last seven games. Jones is just a low-end R3 this week, but he has some upside thanks to an individual matchup against flammable Falcons CB A.J. Terrell.  Jones is an intriguing GPP play at $5,30 on DraftKings.

Laviska Shenault: It’s possible that Shenault gets a value bump now that Jaguars WR Jamal Agnew is out for the season, but we thought the same when the Jags lost WR D.J. Chark for the season weeks ago. Shenault hasn’t scored a touchdown all season and hasn’t exceeded 50 receiving yards since Week 6. He’s just a back-end WR4 this week vs. the Falcons.

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts: Pitts continues to struggle with Falcons WR Calvin Ridley out indefinitely and opponents giving Pitts their full defensive attention. In his last four games, the rookie has 12-164-0 on 25 targets. Still, the ceiling remains lofty. Pitts is the TE4 this week. He’s not a good value at $6,100 on DraftKings but might be worth consideration in GPPs simply because he’s one of the few tight ends capable of a 100-yard, two-TD game.

Dan Arnold: After a consistent three-game run in which he amassed 17-195-0 on 25 targets, Arnold ran aground in Week 11, going catch-less and target-less against the 49ers. His bid for inclusion in TE1 range may have stalled, but Arnold is still an upper-end TE2.