Baseball is back. Spring training is officially underway and another exciting season of fantasy baseball looms just around the corner. Per usual, a collective goal at FantasyPros is to provide drafters with an edge when it comes to compiling a championship-caliber fantasy team.

Every major league baseball team has an x-factor, whether it be a hitter that flies under the radar, an unexpected pitcher ascension, or even a specific ballpark tendency. It is time to go team by team and uncover those x-factors for the 2023 season.

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AL East

Baltimore Orioles

Ryan Mountcastle (1B – BAL)

With a plethora of young up-and-coming talent for the Orioles and immense hype surrounding young studs like Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday, the former love for Mountcastle has dwindled since 2022. The quiet on this front has allowed the former first-round pick and 26-year-old to fly under the radar in fantasy drafts, at an ADP that does not correlate with his production.

Following a sublime 2021, Mountcastle remained more than serviceable last season, slashing .250/.305/.423 with 22 longballs and 85 RBIs. The first baseman is in line to bat fourth or fifth for the O’s in 2023, in what should be an improved top-heavy lineup gushing with run-scoring potential. Mountcastle has a great chance of surpassing the 30-home-run and century-RBI marks in his fourth professional season.

Boston Red Sox

Enrique Hernandez (2B/OF – BOS)

Hernandez is due for a bounce-back third season in Boston following an injury-plagued 2022. Many people likely forgot the dominance that Hernandez showcased during the Red Sox’s late-season/early playoff run just one year prior in which he batted a staggering .408.

Hernandez is slated to be an everyday player for Boston in 2023, and his ability to play at almost any position on the diamond provides significant value. He should have a great chance of returning value on his current late-round ADP in fantasy leagues across the board.

New York Yankees

Carlos Rodon (SP – NYY)

Following a masterful 2022 campaign in San Francisco, Rodon signed a six-year, $162 million contract with the Yankees in December. The true ace now moves from a .500 Giants team to a 100-win Yankees team that will provide him with unlimited run support in 2023.

Rodon should be an A.L. Cy Young Award favorite in 2023, following his sub-3.00 ERA in each of the past two seasons while compiling an astute 422:88 K:BB rate. He could be the key piece for the Yankees to finally break through in their championship conquest, while simultaneously carrying fantasy managers to ‘ships of their own.

Tampa Bay Rays

Wander Franco (SS – TB)

Listing Wander Franco as an “x-factor” just two years into his MLB career feels wrong, but an injury-marred inaugural campaign has forced his 2023 fantasy ADP to drop significantly. Let’s not forget that Franco was previously touted as a generational can’t-miss prospect, and he will play out the 2023 season at just 22 years old.

Limited to 83 games last season, there is still so much potential to uncover in Franco’s game. Assuming he can stay healthy as a sophomore, he has the ability to break fantasy slates everywhere. A .280 batting average in 2023 should be the absolute floor, and he will push for 20 homers and double-digit steals. The projections on him actually seem a bit low, and it would be quite unsurprising if he broke out for much higher numbers than this. He is the type of player that owners will want to have some shares of for the continued mouth-watering upside.

Toronto Blue Jays

Alejandro Kirk (C – TOR)

At an annually desolate position in MLB fantasy land, Kirk stands out as the x-factor catcher of the year so far. Expected to bat cleanup for Toronto in 2023, the 24-year-old backstop should provide solid statistical contributions across the board. He is coming off a breakout 2022 where he appeared in 139 games, and he will remain the everyday catcher for the Blue Jays this season.

Kirk should bat for a high average, offering great RBI potential behind the likes of George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Couple in close to 20 home runs and a solid .OBP, and you are looking at one of the best value picks for catchers in the 2023 MLB fantasy domain.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox

Andrew Vaughn (1B/OF – CWS)

By all accounts, former No. 3 overall pick Andrew Vaughn had a “breakout” season in 2022, as he slashed .271/.321/.429 with 17 home runs and 76 RBIs in his second full year as an everyday major leaguer. Notably, his batting average jumped 36 points last season and he saw major improvements in key areas such as wRC, wRAA, and wRC+ while his hard-hit rate increased substantially.

Vaughn should bat right in the heart of the order for Chicago in 2023, and he is projected to smash the second-most round-trippers on the team, behind just Eloy Jimenez and ahead of the likes of Luis Robert, Tim Anderson, and Yoan Moncada. Vaughn should be able to pay dividends at his current ADP, health permitting, and if these projections prove true.

Cleveland Guardians

Cal Quantrill (SP – CLE)

Quantrill quietly posted a stellar 15-5 record in 2022 while hurling the most innings of his four-year career at 186.1 with a 3.38 ERA. He was a large part of why Cleveland somewhat surprisingly not only dominantly won their division but left the team with one of the top eight records in the entire MLB.

Quantrill should be able to maintain a role as the No. 3 pitcher in the Guardians’ rotation in 2023. Cleveland should be able to retain their ability to produce runs, particularly in one of the weaker divisions in the league. Quantrill will certainly continue to be a key contributor, assuming he can keep his hard-hit percentage below 30%, as he has done over his prior two campaigns.

Detroit Tigers

Austin Meadows (OF – DET)

Austin Meadows is back, and he will be on a redemption tour after missing almost all of 2022 due to injury. People are likely quick to forget that Meadows is a former top-10 draft pick that already has two seasons of 25-plus homers under his belt. A true lefty pull hitter, Meadows should also benefit from the removal of the fielding shift in 2023, a recurring importance for batters of his type. This is already being reflected in some projections for him this season, which see him setting a career high in batting average with ease.

If Meadows can stay healthy in 2023, he should find himself batting cleanup for Detroit with all of the opportunity in the world. He should get his fair share of at-bats as a DH as well, which will allow him to truly place his focus exclusively on hitting. He is more than viable to be drafted in fantasy leagues right now given his deflated ADP, along with the fact that he has become a forgotten name in the fantasy realm.

Kansas City Royals

Vinnie Pasquantino (1B – KC)

Pasquantino burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2022, dicing up MLB pitchers to the tune of a .295/.383/.450 line with 10 homers and 26 RBIs in just 72 games played. He is a true plus-plus hitter with 20-plus longball upside in 2023 and beyond.

Due to his success last season, Pasquantino should find himself in the heart of the Royals’ lineup immediately in 2023. He will be batting behind some strong on-base guys a la Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez, providing great RBI opportunities. His ability to mash the ball out of the park is tantalizing, and he ranked 33rd in the entire MLB in exit velocity last season, emphasizing the fact that his statistical output was no fluke. As ADP rankings currently stand, Pasquantino is simply one of the best fantasy picks available right now.

Minnesota Twins

Pablo Lopez (SP – MIN)

The Minnesota Twins acquired Lopez back in a January trade in exchange for one of the team’s best hitters in Luis Arraez. Clearly, the Twins have big plans for Lopez, and he will immediately slide in as the team’s ace and No. 1 rotational pitcher. Over five prior seasons in Miami, Lopez posted a 28-31 record over 510.0 innings, with an 8.63 K/9 ratio and a 3.94 ERA.

However, Lopez’s stuff is a lot better than what his record indicates (which is largely in part to him playing for an annually underachieving Marlins team). Just last season, Lopez was in the top half of the league when it came to average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and chase rate. Lopez should be in line to toss close to his career high in innings in 2023, and his results should improve with a better supporting cast in Minnesota.

AL West

Houston Astros

Cristian Javier (SP – HOU)

Cristian Javier has a fantastic chance at developing into a superstar in 2023 following a 2022 campaign that saw him sustain major improvements across the board. With the departure of Justin Verlander, Javier will now be alongside Framber Valdez as the top two starting pitching options for the Astros this season.

Javier posted a sublime 2.54 ERA across 25 starts in 2022, more than a full run less than his 2021 numbers. He was also in the top 10% of the MLB in the following metrics: XBA, XSLG, WOBA, XWOBA, XWOBACON, K%, and xERA. Every single one of these marks were major improvements from his prior numbers, and a testament to the work he put in last season. Javier is not just an x-factor for Houston but a true dark horse for the 2023 A.L. Cy Young award.

Los Angeles Angels

Reid Detmers (SP – LAA)

As the 2023 MLB season commences, the Los Angeles Angels will once again look to climb out of the basement they’ve been dwelling in since what feels like the Cold War. This may be the No. 1 team that needs a true x-factor more than any other. Maybe, just maybe, Detmers can be that guy for them.

Projected to serve at the end of the Angels’ rotation, Detmers has sneakily improved in areas that should allow him to succeed in 2023. The former first-round selection is just 22 years old and he posted a 7-6 record over 129.0 innings in 2022, with a 3.77 ERA and 122:46 K:BB ratio. More importantly, from 2021 to 2022, Detmers made significant strides in his allowed hard-hit percentage and sweet-spot percentage categories, lowering those numbers by 5.3 and 3.7% respectively. He also improved statistically when it came to getting hitters to chase pitches. Detmers has some nasty stuff in his arsenal, and if his command continues to improve in the upcoming campaign, he could be in line to serve as the Angels’ saving grace while also rewarding fantasy managers handsomely.

Oakland Athletics

Seth Brown (1B – OAK)

Seth Brown should offer serviceable fantasy numbers as a late-round pick in 2023, while living in the middle of the order for the Oakland Athletics. He is coming off a campaign in which he smacked a career-high 25 home runs, while landing in the 90th percentile of the MLB in barrel percentage and max exit velocity.

Brown will never hit for an extraordinarily high average, but he is another strong example of a player that should benefit from the 2023 removal of the fielding shift. Brown was ranked in the top 25 players that faced the shift in 2022, equivalent to 88.6% of his plate appearances. His wOBA jumped from .314 to .393 the rare 11.4% of the time he didn’t see it, emphasizing the improvements he should be able to make getting on base this season now that he will no longer face those alignments.

Seattle Mariners

Jarred Kelenic (OF – SEA)

Time will tell if former first-round phenom Jarred Kelenic will be able to bounce back for the Mariners in 2023. Kelenic was truly miserable in 2022, as he batted just .141 in 181 plate appearances while striking out one third of the time. His lone saving grace may have been his maximum exit velocity, which ranked in the top 6% of the entire MLB. The power is still there for the 23-year-old.

A positive sign in the early going of this season is that Kelenic has been off to a stellar start in spring training. He is currently slashing .412/.412/1.118 through six games with seven hits and four home runs to show for it. He should start the regular season towards the bottom half of the Mariners’ lineup, but continued efficiency in these spring training games could help his hype train build back up quickly.

Texas Rangers

Josh Jung (3B – TEX)

Jung is a former 2019 first-round pick by the Rangers who made his debut in 2022 before dealing with numerous injuries that pushed his season off track. Now fully healthy, the second-year 25-year-old should be in line to begin Opening Day as the Rangers’ starting third baseman.

Jung has mouthwatering power upside and he should push for 20-plus home-run potential if he can get through a full MLB season unscathed. Prior to struggling during his short stint in the MLB, Jung also possessed a strong average in the minors at .340 across four different levels. Texas is looking like a team that will be ready to contend in 2023, and Jung will certainly be a big part of their chances.

NL East

Atlanta Braves

Spencer Strider (SP – ATL)

One of the most hyped Atlanta pitchers in years, Strider made his name known as a rookie in 2022 when he pitched 131.2 innings, posted a 2.67 ERA, and maintained a 13.81 K/9 ratio. The Braves’ rotation is so deep that Strider likely will be the third or fourth option to kick the 2023 season off, though it would not be surprising at all if he ends up being Atlanta’s best overall hurler by season’s end.

In his short MLB experience to this point, Strider is already solidified in the top percentiles of the league when it comes to strikeout percentage, low XBA, XSLG, WOBA, XWOBA, and ERA. He has all the true makings of being a future MLB star for years to come, and a true x-factor for helping the Braves get back towards a championship run. Expect another low ERA and greater than a 200-strikeout season in his second full campaign.

Miami Marlins

Bryan De La Cruz (CF – MIA)

De La Cruz had been bouncing around in the Astros’ minor league organization since 2014 prior to breaking through with the Marlins for a short stint in 2021. He backed up that performance by solidifying himself with Miami last season when he slashed for .252/.292/.432 across 355 plate appearances. De La Cruz will be penciled in as an everyday outfielder for the Marlins in 2023, and somehow he is still just 26 years old.

The native Dominican impressed last season by ranking 43rd in the MLB in average exit velocity, and he was in the top-10 percentile of the league in terms of xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA. Translation: The man can hit a baseball and he can hit it hard. 2023 should provide this potential Marlins x-factor with the chance for a true breakout season.

New York Mets

Kodai Senga (SP – NYM)

The newest MLB Japanese phenom’s hype has been building as this offseason has progressed, and for good reason. Reports out of New York’s camp have been absolutely glowing on Senga’s potential, and he may just be the saving grace that the Mets so desperately need.

Pitching behind true aces Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer should only assist in Senga’s progression throughout the year, and relieve some of the pressure from coming in with abnormally high expectations. That said, the 30-year-old has truly filthy stuff in his arsenal, and he is more than capable of dominating major league hitters. Senga should be in line for double-digit wins in his inaugural campaign, and the possibility of eclipsing the 200-strikeout plateau with a sub-4.00 ERA should be well within the range of outcomes.

Philadelphia Phillies

Nick Castellanos (OF – PHI)

By all accounts, Castellanos struggled mightily in his first season with the Phillies, tallying his least homers over the past eight seasons along with dips in nearly every other fantasy-relevant statistical category, including a career-low .694 OPS. The 31-year-old himself noted that he was not comfortable in his first year in Philadelphia.

Now, the former All-Star and Silver Slugger will look to bounce back, and assist the Phillies and their team’s championship aspirations for the second consecutive season. Heading into Year 2 with the team, Castellanos has made it clear he is ready to put 2022 behind him and return to his expected form. He is going to slide right back into the middle of an improved Phillies lineup, and he should slash for a solid line with 20-plus home-run potential should the bounce back go according to plan.

Washington Nationals

Joey Meneses (1B – WAS)

The Nationals, who have been in full rebuild mode for a couple of seasons, are likely going to have another rough year in 2023. Their one ray of hope could be 30-year-old Meneses, who made his big-league debut with the club in 2022 after a nine-year career in the minors. He only went on to slash .324/.367/.563 with 13 longballs over just 240 plate appearances following the call-up.

Meneses’ brief 2022 stint was good enough for him to become arguably the top hitter for the Nationals in 2023, and he should push for the highest power numbers on the team. His fantasy ADP remains too low due to the fact that Washington is going to be flat-out bad, and the collection of players on the roster looks rough, to say the least. Meneses has the best chance to be the difference-maker that they need.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs

Trey Mancini (1B – CHC)

Mancini has made the trip north to Chicago after collecting his first championship ring with Houston in 2022. Now 30, the seven-year veteran will slide into the heart of the Cubs’ order and play in the National League for the first time in his career.

When healthy, Mancini still possesses some of the purest power in the entire MLB. His max exit velocity ranked in the top 10% in all of baseball in four out of his past five seasons played. His barrel percentage has also been above average in that category for that duration as well. A consistent bet for 20 home runs in any given year, Mancini could surprise in both real-life and fantasy baseball as a value pickup from Wrigley this season.

Cincinnati Reds

Jonathan India (2B – CIN)

Just one full season removed from winning the N.L. ROY, India regressed substantially in 2022 in nearly every meaningful statistical category. Nevertheless, he has a great chance of returning to form in 2023 as the Reds’ everyday second baseman.

India struggled at the plate, as pitchers figured him out during his sophomore campaign, resulting in him landing in the bottom half of the league in xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage. All that said, India maintained strong discipline at the plate, and he was actually towards the top of the MLB in whiff and chase rate, while holding down a 75th-percentile max exit velocity. The stuff is still there; he just had a rough go of it in 2022. India could be primed to return numbers closer to his fantastic 2021 campaign as the Reds get their season underway on March 30.

Milwaukee Brewers

Jesse Winker (OF – MIL)

I have hyped Jesse Winker up in previous articles and will be doing so again here. Winker struggled in 2022 but played in an extremely pitcher-friendly park while he battled through numerous injuries. Despite all of this, his advanced statistics illustrated that he still possesses the power that viewers had previously become accustomed to seeing from him.

Now playing in Milwaukee, and without the fear of a fielder’s shift, Winker is poised to return to his annual expectations. Most of his appearances should take place as a DH, which will allow him to place his sole focus on hitting, and he should be doing so out of the four or five hole for the Brewers. Winker should be drafted with confidence in fantasy circles as a late-round outfield option that could become an everyday power machine.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B – PIT)

There is no other way to put it: Ke’Bryan Hayes has been a major letdown since joining the majors in 2020. It is sad because he was as tantalizing and hyped as a prospect seen in a long time, yet he’s simply fallen well short of those large expectations. The good news is that he is still just 26 years old and he’ll continue to see maximum playing time on an annually underwhelming Pittsburgh team.

Hayes’ power numbers never developed as many expected, as he has just 18 round-trippers through his first three MLB seasons. That said, there is still some promise that he can find the stroke in the upcoming campaign. Last season, Hayes ranked 39th in the MLB in average exit velocity and sat in the top 25th percentile in maximum exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. He also set a career high with 20 stolen bases in 2022. Hayes deserves at least one more chance to prove his worth for the Pirates and fantasy managers alike.

St. Louis Cardinals

Willson Contreras (C – STL)

Taking another dip into the shallow catcher well, Willson Contreras was signed by the Cardinals in December on a five-year, $87.5 million deal following his profound season as a Cub in 2022. It was a big vote of confidence by St. Louis to commit to the 30-year-old given his career to this point.

Contreras should be one of the better power-hitting catchers in baseball, and he is a near lock to surpass 20 round-trippers in his first go-around as a Cardinal. He is also one of the better defensive catchers in the MLB, which should earn him an everyday role in 2023. Contreras ranked near the top of the league in numerous statistical hitting categories in 2022, and he should provide a boon to the St. Louis lineup while batting behind Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks

Alek Thomas (OF – ARI)

Alek Thomas is a former second-round pick of Arizona who made his MLB debut with the team in 2022. The 22-year-old went on to slash .231/.275/.344 with eight longballs and 45 runs scored over 411 plate appearances. Not fantastic numbers by any means, but there were some positives to take away.

Thomas was ranked as the 33rd-fastest player in the MLB, according to sprint speed tracking, and he should be ready to take a step forward when it comes to stealing bases in 2023. While he will likely never hit for crazy power numbers, Thomas has as good a chance as anyone to increase his batting average this season. His BABIP was poor as a member of the Diamondbacks’ major league club, but he was always well above average in that category in the minors. More plate appearances in Year 2 could go a long way toward Thomas’ development.

Colorado Rockies

Ezequiel Tovar (SS – COL)

A hyped top prospect in the Rockies’ farm system, 21-year-old Tovar made his debut for Colorado toward the end of the 2022 season and flashed some of the upside that could make him an MLB starter for years to come. Already one of the best defensive shortstops in the league, Tovar was incredible at the plate in the minors last season, batting above .300 with double-digit homers and steals.

Playing at Coors Field can only be considered a plus for any hitter on the Rockies, and Tovar should be able to take advantage off the bat. He is likely to begin the season as Colorado’s everyday shortstop, and he should retain fantasy relevance despite batting at the end of the order. He has true 20-20 ability and is still going undrafted in many season-long and best ball-formatted leagues.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Dustin May (SP – LAD)

May is looking to return to form as an x-factor for the Dodgers following season-ending injuries that cost him nearly all of the past two seasons. When healthy, May had previously been a force to be reckoned with, exemplified by his 2.57 ERA in 2022.

May is somehow still just 25 years old, and he should round out the Dodgers’ rotation to begin the 2023 season. Assuming he can stay healthy (a big if), he should be very likely to post solid numbers with a reasonable ERA and K:BB ratio. He can currently be had at the back end of most fantasy drafts for free.

San Diego Padres

Matt Carpenter (1B/3B – SD)

One of the most fun parts of the 2022 MLB season may have been the heroic and unlikely resurgence of 37-year-old Matt Carpenter. Playing for the Yankees in the latter half of the year, Carpenter somehow managed to slash .305/.412/.727 with 15 home runs over just 154 plate appearances.

The Padres signed Carpenter to a one-year deal this offseason, and he is likely to crack the Opening Day lineup for the team as an outfielder. Given his age and positioning on the team, expectations obviously need to be tempered in 2023, but the veteran proved last season that he can still provide some value. The upside in the power department still holds true, and he should get a decent amount of RBI-producing opportunities batting behind some of the best hitting names in all of baseball.

San Francisco Giants

Camilo Doval (RP – SF)

To fittingly conclude the x-factor list of 2023, we’ll include our first relief pitcher, Camilo Doval, in this slot. Doval was fantastic in 2022 in his first full season as a closer for the Giants, recording 27 saves with a 2.53 ERA. The right-hander has truly filthy stuff, including a cutter that tops out at nearly 100 MPH.

Doval should be one of the top closers again in 2023, and San Francisco will feel confident any time he is on the mound to close out a game. He should have no problem topping his 27 saves from last season, and he should easily lead all Giants relievers in strikeouts. The 25-year-old Dominican is a true difference-maker in the league.

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