Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Thursday Night Football: Panthers vs. Bears.
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Thursday Night Football Primer & Start/Sit Advice
- CHI -3.5, O/U 39
- Panthers vs. Bears Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- This game will be one of the slowest for the Week 10 slate. The Panthers have the fourth-slowest neutral pace, which is trumped by the Bears, who are the third-slowest in close games.
- Since Week 5, the Panthers have been 11th in neutral passing rate. The Bears have taken the opposite approach all season. They have the second-highest neutral rushing rate.
Quarterbacks
Bryce Young: Young has been tough to watch this season. He is the QB27 in fantasy with only one outing where he surpassed 15 fantasy points. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he is dead last in yards per attempt, 32nd in fantasy points per dropback, and 19th in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE). Since Week 6, Chicago has allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns, the 12th-highest passer rating, and the 11th-highest adjusted completion rate. During this stretch, they have utilized more man coverage and have the fourth-highest rate of single-high (65.4%). Against single high, Young has seen his yards per attempt increase from 5.4 to 7.2. This is a wonderful matchup for Young to flash some of the promise that made him a top draft pick in the 2023 draft class. Week 10 Positional Value: QB2
Tyson Bagent: Justin Fields has been described as day-to-day with limited practices. I doubt the team pushes him on a short week, so this will be another week with Bagent under center. Last week, Bagent finished as the QB9 in fantasy as he flashed some rushing upside. Bagent’s passing numbers have been an adventure. He has the second-highest turnover-worthy throw rate and ranks outside the top 28 quarterbacks in yards per attempt (29th) and passer rating (33rd). If Bagent can reel in the off-target throws and retain some of the rushing equity we saw last week (70 rushing yards), he could flirt with QB1 numbers this week. Quarterbacks have destroyed Carolina. Over the last four weeks, Carolina has allowed the tenth-highest passer rating while ranking fifth in adjusted completion rate and fantasy points allowed via passing. Week 10 Positional Value: QB2
Running Backs
Chuba Hubbard: Hubbard has taken Miles Sanders‘ job. Since Week 8, he has averaged 66% of the snaps with 18.5 touches and 60.5 total yards per game. Among 68 qualifying backs, he is 32nd in explosive run rate and 34th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Hubbard has a tough road to travel this week. The Bear’s run defense has been one of the league’s best this season, with the best stuff rate, lowest explosive run rate allowed, and the 12th-lowest yards after contact per attempt permitted. It doesn’t help Hubbard’s case that Carolina has not blocked well this season. They have the third-lowest adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Week 10 Positional Value: RB2/3
Miles Sanders: Sanders has been demoted to understudy. Since Week 8, he has played 18% and 25% of the snaps, averaging 5.5 touches and 30.5 total yards. In a terrible matchup behind an offensive line that couldn’t stop a light breeze, Sanders is a hold but shouldn’t come anywhere near your fantasy lineups. Week 10 Positional Value: Sit
D’Onta Foreman: Last week, Foreman led the backfield with a 59% snap share, 20 rushing attempts (zero targets), and 83 rushing yards. With the Bears expected to operate in neutral or positive game script in this matchup, Foreman should lead the running back room again. Among 68 qualifying backs, Foreman is 31st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 39th in yards after contact per attempt. This is a smash matchup for Foreman. Carolina has allowed the eighth-highest explosive run rate, the third-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the seventh-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Foreman 61.5% zone). Week 10 Positional Value: RB2/3
Roschon Johnson: Johnson has been regulated to a backup role with 36% and 29% snap shares over the last two weeks while averaging six touches and 23 total yards per game. Johnson has only one red zone opportunity over the last two weeks (Foreman four). Johnson is now a low-end stash only. Week 10 Positional Value: Stash
Darrynton Evans: If you had Evans rostered in a deep league, it’s okay to drop him. Last week, the Bears went back to a two-way committee. Evans played only six snaps with three touches and 21 total yards. Week 10 Positional Value: Droppable
Wide Receivers
Adam Thielen: Thielen is the WR9 in fantasy, coming off his first disappointing game since Week 1. In Week 9, he broke a streak of six straight games as a top 24 fantasy wideout. Thielen has a 24.4% target share, a 29.0% air-yard share, 1.96 yards per route run (YPRR), and a 33.5% first-read share. He ranks 17th among wide receivers in red zone targets with seven looks inside the 20-yard line over his last four games. Chicago has allowed the 13th-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Thielen should thrive this week against the Bears’ new love for single-high. Against single-high, his target share balloons to 27.9% with a 34.2% air-yard share, 2.60 YPRR, and a 37.2% first-read share. Thielen will run about 71% of his routes against Kyler Gordon (84.2% catch rate and 115.1 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR1
Jonathan Mingo: Mingo has had a 13.6% target share, a 22.6% air-yard share, 0.81 YPRR, and a 19.1% first-read share. He has surpassed 50 receiving yards only once this season while only posting one week as a WR3 (WR36) in fantasy. Against single-high looks, Mingo’s target share has increased to 16.2%, and he is second on the team with a 26.6% first-read share. Mingo has five deep targets this season, but only one red zone look and that came in Week 5. He will run about 67% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (46.4% catch rate and 40.9 passer rating) and Jaylon Jones (76.9% catch rate and 93.1 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR4/5
D.J. Chark: Chark isn’t playable until he returns to a full-time role. Last week, he only logged a 56.3% route run rate while drawing a 7.7% target share and a 9.4% air-yard share (three targets). Week 10 Positional Value: Sit
D.J. Moore: Moore has a 22.4% target share, a 43.0% air-yard share, 2.50 YPRR, and a 35.8% first-read share. Moore is the WR11 in fantasy and also ranks sixth in deep targets. Since his monster Week 5 performance, Moore has managed only one week as a WR2 or better. This is a fantastic bounce-back spot for Moore. Since Week 6, Carolina has the fifth-highest rate of single-high (64.4%). Against single-high, Moore has a 43.8% share of the team’s receiving yards, and his YPRR has climbed to 2.95. Carolina has allowed the third-highest PPR points per target to boundary wide receivers (Moore 82% outside). Week 10 Positional Value: WR2/3
Darnell Mooney: Mooney is coming off arguably his best game of the season, securing five of his six targets with 82 receiving yards. Mooney has an 11.8% target share, a 27.6% air-yard share, 1.29 YPRR, and a 15.8% first-read share. He doesn’t have much touchdown equity in this offense, with only three red zone targets this season (one over his last four games). Carolina has been superb at defending the slot, allowing the fewest receiving yards in the NFL and the fifth-lowest PPR points per target. Mooney is a low-end flex play that is better off left on the bench this week. Week 10 Positional Value: Low-end flex/Sit
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet: Kmet is the TE5 in fantasy, ranking fourth in red zone targets and second in receiving touchdowns. Kmet has been a breath of fresh air this season with two games with multiple touchdowns and five TE1 weekly finishes. Among 47 qualifying tight ends, he is ninth in target share (17.6%), 12th in YPRR (1.70), and 11th in first-read share (18.8%). Among 66 qualifying tight ends, he ranks sixth in fantasy points per route run against single-high coverage (since Week 6, CAR is fifth in single-high). Carolina has allowed the 12th-highest yards per reception and the 12th-most fantasy points to inline tight ends (Kmet 40.5% inline). Week 10 Positional Value: TE1
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
