Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Thursday Night Football: Chargers vs. Raiders.
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Thursday Night Football Primer & Start/Sit Advice
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- LV -3, O/U 34
- Chargers vs. Raiders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 9, the Raiders have had the second-slowest neutral pace while ranking 16th in neutral passing rate.
- Last week, in the second half, the Chargers continued to sprint down the field with a pass-happy approach, even with Easton Stick under center. They operated at 19.9 seconds per snap while passing on 69.7% of their plays.
Quarterbacks
Easton Stick: Stick could be the Bolts’ starter for the remainder of the season as Justin Herbert is sidelined with a fractured finger. Stick was simply dreadful last week. Among 27 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 24th in adjusted completion rate and catchable target rate and 25th in highly accurate throw rate. Stick’s numbers across four preseasons aren’t any better as a passer, with 5.4 yards per attempt (217 attempts) and a 4:8 passing touchdown to interception ratio. Stick didn’t take off running last week, but that is definitely a part of his game that could be further unlocked this week. With 13 preseason carries, he has rushed for 7.1 yards per carry. During his final three collegiate seasons, he had at least 663 rushing yards in each season while amassing 36 rushing touchdowns. Since Week 8, the Raiders have allowed the 13th-highest yards per attempt, the 17th-highest passer rating, and the fourth-highest CPOE. Stick is a QB2 that could offer a sneaky upside this week. Week 15 Positional Value: QB2
Aidan O’Connell: O’Connell is who he is at this juncture. A low-ceiling QB2 in fantasy. O’Connell faced this defense in Week 4 and produced 6.1 yards per attempt, 238 scoreless passing yards, and a QB23 weekly finish. O’Connell is a fantasy option that is best left on the bench, even in Superflex formats. He has failed to crack double-digit fantasy points in three of his last five starters and hasn’t finished higher than QB17 in any week. Week 15 Positional Value: Sit
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler: Brandon Staley stated last week that the Chargers would begin to work in other running backs, and then Ekeler played 72% of the snaps with 15 touches and 100 total yards against the Broncos. Ummm ok. While Ekeler’s stat line looked better last week, he’s still dealing with the same issue. He has lost the special sauce and his tackle-breaking ability. Maybe this is because of injuries he has sustained this season, or maybe it’s because of the mileage he has accrued in the NFL. Last week, he didn’t manage any explosive runs. He didn’t force any missed tackles and finished with 2.30 yards after contact per attempt. Denver’s struggling run defense helped bump up his efficiency falsely. He is still only getting what is blocked in front of him. Unfortunately for Ekeler, the Raiders’ run defense has been playing quite well. Since Week 9, they have allowed the third-lowest rushing touchdown rate, the lowest missed tackles per attempt, and the sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Ekeler is still a strong bet for 15-18 touches, and all the red zone work. Week 15 Positional Value: RB2
#Raiders RB Josh Jacobs, listed as questionable with a quad, is going to be out tonight vs the #Chargers, per me and @MikeGarafolo. Jacobs didn’t practice this week.
Zamir White is slated to be the starter.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 14, 2023
Josh Jacobs: Jacobs has been ruled out.
Zamir White: With Josh Jacobs unable to suit up, White is in the RB2/3 conversation this week based on volume alone. I wasn’t high on White as a prospect coming out, and he’s done nothing to change my mind. This season, he has only 20 carries, and he’s done very little with them. He hasn’t managed an explosive run and has only 2.00 yards after contact per attempt. Looking at a larger preseason sample (51 carries), his results don’t improve, as he has 2.39 yards after contact per attempt and zero breakaway runs. He would be the early down thumper, though, if Jacobs missed, which is valuable this week considering the matchup, and he would likely see at least 15 touches. Since Week 9, the Bolts have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game, the second-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 11th-highest explosive run rate. Week 15 Positional Value: RB2/3
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen: Allen has been ruled out.
Quentin Johnston: Since Week 8, in the six games that Johnston has played at least 70% of the snaps, he has drawn a 13.3% target share, with a 22.1% air-yard share and 1.27 YPRR. He has averaged only 43.7 receiving yards per game. On a positive note, in this late-season sample, he leads the team with three end-zone targets. Johnston is a desperation flex play only who faces a Raiders secondary that, since Week 9, has allowed the 13th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. With Keenan Allen ruled out, the Bolts will have to lean on Johnston. Josh Palmer will be back, but he’s not expected to be an every-down player. Week 15 Positional Value: WR4
Davante Adams: Since Week 9 with O’Connell chucking it, Adams has had a 29.6% target share, a 50.1% air-yard share, 2.10 YPRR, and a 36.2% first-read share as the WR23 in fantasy. Adams ranks eighth in deep target and second in red zone targets among wide receivers. In Week 4, with O’Connell starting, Adams secured eight of his 13 targets with 75 receiving yards as the WR19 for the week. Since Week 9, the Bolts have been downgraded from a smash matchup for perimeter wide receivers to a neutral one, allowing the 17th-most PPR points per target and receiving yards per game. Week 15 Positional Value: WR2
Jakobi Meyers: With O’Connell starting the last five games, Meyers has a 15.7% target share, 1.63 YPRR, and a 19.8% first-read share. His Week 12 meeting with Kansas City was his only game above 50 receiving yards. Since Week 7, he has only one red zone target. Meyers can’t be counted on in the opening week of the fantasy playoffs. There are better wide receiver options to consider if you’re streaming for a flex spot. Week 15 Positional Value: Sit
Tight Ends
Gerald Everett: Since Week 12, Everett has had a 59% route run rate, a 13.8% target share, 1.56 YPRR, and an 11.5% first read share as the Chargers’ main tight end. It only took 11 weeks of the NFL season for the Chargers to commit to featuring one of their best players, but this has been a consistent problem in this offense all season, so I’m not surprised. Everett has four red zone targets over his last three games. The Raiders have allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game and the second-highest catch rate to tight ends this season. Week 15 Positional Value: Borderline TE1
Michael Mayer: Mayer is in the TE2/matchup-based streaming conversation this week. Since Week 9, he has had a 55% route run rate, a 10.1% target share, and a 12.9% first-read share. With the Raiders utilizing a run-first offense with O’Connell, Mayer has surpassed 40 receiving yards only once over the last five games. He hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 10. The Chargers have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 15 Positional Value: TE2
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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, ESPN analytics, The Edge from the 33rd Team, FTN, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
