An old adage is that you can’t win your draft in the first few rounds but you can lose it. The earliest rounds are typically where you want reliability from your selections. As the draft progresses, you begin to target more upside. It’s about finding the balance between reliability versus upside that best fits your team.
By the last few rounds of your draft, reliability among players is nearly nonexistent. All the players in that range have question marks or they would be going earlier in the draft. It’s a matter of determining which question marks you think have answers that can provide big returns.
Big returns are what we are looking for when targeting lottery tickets. In this article, we will focus on players selected outside the top 300 in FantasyPros’ consensus average draft position (ADP). No offense to players such as Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson or Jeff McNeil, who all have ADPs in that range, but they are not lottery ticket material. We know what they offer and it isn’t the big returns we’re hoping for late. Read on to find the late targets we’re looking for.
Lottery Tickets to Target
Wilmer Flores (1B, 3B, DH – SF)
Wilmer Flores isn’t the typical lottery ticket. It seems unlikely there is bottoming-out potential but there may be much more upside than his current ADP at 345 suggests. Flores has provided positive offensive values every year since 2016 by wRC+, culminating with last season’s career-high 136. He reached his newest heights in wRC+ by setting a new career-high in home runs. The new home run barrage is a product of adjusting his launch angle into a power swing. Last season, his launch angle was 22 degrees, fifth in all of baseball amongst known sluggers such as Nolan Gorman, Isaac Parades and Max Muncy.
After adding Matt Chapman, there is a bit of a playing time concern for Flores. But that is the norm with him every year. His positional versatility gets him enough playing time to be useful for fantasy baseball. His three-position versatility is a bonus for fantasy.
DL Hall (SP, RP – MIL)
There is no questioning the strikeout upside of DL Hall. Between the major and minor leagues in the last two seasons, Hall has pitched 169.1 innings. He has struck out a remarkable 257 batters in those innings — over 13 strikeouts per nine innings. Unfortunately, he also has control issues, which can lead to walks. He has walked 93 batters in those same innings, almost five per nine. A promising sign was that the walks dipped when he was recalled last season to Baltimore. In 19.1 big league innings, he struck out 23 batters but only walked five.
In the offseason, Hall was traded to Milwaukee as part of the return for Corbin Burnes. All indications are that the Brewers plan to use him as a starter. He has never reached 100 innings pitched in a season, so expecting many more than that is unlikely. Even in limited innings, though, he is worth a lottery ticket selection for his strikeout upside. He will be especially valuable in points leagues where he can be used as a relief pitcher even if he starts games.
Parker Meadows (OF – DET)
At the major league level, 19 batters had at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases last season. According to ADP, the lowest drafted of those players is Anthony Volpe at 129. Between Triple-A and the major league level last season, Parker Meadows also went 20/20. He hit 22 home runs and stole 27 bases while maintaining a .251 batting average between both levels. His current ADP is pick 315, 12 rounds lower than Volpe in a 15-team league.
Meadows is the expected leadoff batter for the Tigers going into this season. The good news is that it should lead to plenty of runs and stolen bases. The bad news is that Comerica Park, the Detroit Tigers’ home ballpark, was the most difficult park to hit home runs in last season, according to Statcast Park Factors. He may not deliver 20 home runs this season. It’s also possible he hits 15 home runs and steals 30 bases with a usable average. That’s a lottery ticket you want in your pocket.
Erick Fedde (SP – CWS)
Wait. Erick Fedde has a 5.41 career ERA over 454.1 innings. Isn’t he the type of pitcher who is not lottery ticket material? He was very much trending that way in his Washington Nationals days. Then, he went to the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) last season to play baseball and learned a new pitch in the sweeper. It helped him bring home the league’s Rookie of the Year and KBO MVP awards. His one season in Asia was a statistically dominant one — 209 strikeouts to only 35 walks over 180 innings with a 2.00 ERA and 20 wins.
After one year in Asia, Fedde is back in the majors with the Chicago White Sox. With the trade of Dylan Cease to the Padres, Fedde is the presumed ace of this team and will pitch as many innings as possible. Fedde is a late lottery ticket to select to see if the sweeper works as well in MLB as it did in Korea.
Reynaldo Lopez (SP, RP – ATL)
Reynaldo Lopez established himself as one of the best relief pitchers in baseball in the past couple of seasons. When he signed with the Atlanta Braves this offseason it was initially believed to be as a setup man for closer Raisel Iglesias. Instead, it was announced he’d compete for a starting rotation spot. He’s competed with both Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver in spring training.
Smith-Shawver is likely to start the season in the minor leagues. Elder has pitched poorly this spring with an ERA over eight. Conversely, Lopez has been fantastic with a 1.54 ERA. All indications are Lopez has secured the fifth-starter role. With the Atlanta offense backing him, wins should be abundant. He should put up a usable ERA and WHIP and record enough strikeouts for fantasy value.
Gavin Stone (SP – LAD)
With both Walker Buehler and Emmet Sheehan expected to start the season on the injured list, there is an opening in the Dodgers’ Opening Day rotation. With his dominant spring training, Gavin Stone is the most likely option to fill that void. So far in spring training he is 3-0 with a 0.93 ERA, a 0.62 WHIP and nine strikeouts over nine innings. He is an entirely different pitcher than the one who gave up 31 earned runs in 31 big league innings last season.
If we had never seen those 31 major league innings, there would be much more enthusiasm for him going into this season. Over the last two minor league seasons, he has pitched 222 innings. He posted a 2.96 ERA and 288 strikeouts in those innings. Going into last season, Stone was thought of similarly to Bobby Miller. Could we be drafting Stone in the same range as Miller next season? It’s worth taking him with a late selection to find out.
Expert Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice
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- KC Bubba’s Must-Have Players (Premium)
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