How to Value Rookies in Fantasy Football: Pre-NFL Draft (2025)

The calendar steadily approaching April indicates the 2025 NFL Draft and rookie hype season has officially reached all-new heights, especially for those invested in dynasty and pre-draft best ball fantasy football formats.

The first-year talent that has entered the league over the past few seasons warrants excitement because guys are hitting the ground running for fantasy football. The list is impressive: Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Bucky Irving, Brock Bowers, Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, Jalen McMillan, Tyrone Tracy, C.J. Stroud, Zay Flowers, Sam LaPorta, Puka Nacua, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Drake London, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jonathan Taylor, Jaylen Waddle, Najee Harris, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

But there’s still some ambiguity with every prospect entering the league that should be considered when generating their fantasy value. And how the NFL thinks/views certain prospects based on their projected draft capital – and real draft capital post-draft – should be factored in.

Leveraging projected draft capital provided by Grinding The Mocks/NFL Mock Draft Database and using the historical rookie track record data from the late great Mike Tagliere to devise a value strategy is the best way to approach the 2025 rookie class. It will prepare you for dynasty rookie drafts, LIVE best ball drafts, and season-long leagues after each newcomer finds their NFL landing spot. It will also provide an edge against early pre-draft best ball average draft position (ADP) on Underdog Fantasy, Drafters, Fast Draft, and the FFPC.

Again, shout out to Tags for the 2021 version of this article that I will be referring to ad nauseam. He provided the backbone for the first version of this article and each subsequent article that followed since 2022.

• 2025 NFL Draft Guide
• 2025 NFL Draft Scouting Reports
• 2025 NFL Mock Drafts
• Dynasty Mock Draft Simulator

How to Value Rookies in Fantasy Football (Pre-Draft 2025)

Running Backs

The data suggests a strong correlation between draft capital and running back production in fantasy football. This correlation isn’t surprising because draft capital is a better indicator of opportunity versus talent/skill. The running back position in fantasy football is heavily dependent on volume.

NFL teams are wising up to drafting a running back at the back end of round one or in the middle of Day 2, intending to run them into the ground through the extent of their rookie contract.

However, draft capital is easier to come by for the 2025 RB class in particular. The class is very strong, which was evident by how undesired veteran RBs were during the 2025 free-agency period.

It’s the polar opposite of what happened last season, when the veteran RB market was robust, given the poor incoming class overall.

Only one RB earned an average annual value of at least $5M this offseason (Najee Harris). 7 RBs had at least $5.5 million AAV in 2024.

Rookie Running Backs Since 2013

First-round rookie running backs, on average, see 240 touches per season – a number that ranked 21st at the position in 2024, 22nd in 2023, and 20th in 2022.

However, the benchmark around 20 is slightly inflated due to the extra game, so I’d estimate the average is closer to the top 15 based on the previous 16-game season sample size (239 touches ranked 14th in 2021).

Najee Harris – 381 touches in 2021, tops in the NFL – is the best-case scenario for a first-round rookie volume-wise, but still showcases the impact a first-year runner can make despite zero professional experience.

In 2023, we had two RBs selected in the first round: Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs– and they delivered despite lofty expectations. Both finished as top-12 fantasy RBs, averaging the exact touch output we should have expected.

Last season was an utter disappointment for rookie RBs. But in 2025, the RB class is very strong.

With the 2022 season mirroring the 2024 season for rookie RBs, I would project this year’s rookie RB class to look more like the 2023 season.

We have two RBs projected to be first-round picks between Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty and UNC’s Omarion Hampton. Additionally, there has been buzz for both Ohio State RBs to enter Round 1.

Even if neither Buckeyes RB is selected on Day 1, early Day 2 draft capital is almost just as good. Because running backs drafted early on Day 2 are the first-round running backs from seven years ago.

These top 4 RBs are all projected to be drafted inside the top 50 overall picks.

So, how does their projected draft capital stack up against their current ADPs?

Jeanty is RB4-5, which is very expensive, especially without knowing what team he goes to. We have seen plenty of top 10 RBs drafted who delivered in Year 1. But from a value perspective, I think it’s better to get exposure to Jeanty after the NFL Draft because I think his price can only dip if he gets a less exciting landing spot.

Given his current price range, which ranges from RB15 to RB21(RB18 average), I am much more interested in selecting Omarion Hampton. Essentially, his price is the exact value a projected Round 1 RB should be.

He is particularly cheap on Fast Draft as the RB21 in the Flex 4 tournament (not the rookie-only tournament).

With the two Ohio State RBs, I think draft capital works more in favor of Quinshon Judkins than TreVeon Henderson. Again, draft capital is more of a predictor of volume/opportunity than talent. Judkins needs to operate as a bell cow to be a success for fantasy football at the next level, whereas Henderson will likely be deployed in a committee, given his pre-touch efficiency marks.

Both former Buckeyes are being drafted as backend RB2s (RB22-RB26), with the odds being one pays off based on what we see from Round 2 RBs.

I think Judkins is the one I want to target now, with his landing/spot draft capital, one that could pole vault him the highest post-draft.

Yahoo's Charles Robinson on Ohio State RB Quinshon Judkins as a potential round 1 pick and fit with the Steelers????

via @YahooSports Inside Coverage Podcast pic.twitter.com/xeZyrJsheZ

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) March 12, 2025

He is even cheaper on Fast Draft as the RB4 in the Origins rookie-only best ball tournament.

As we enter later into Round 2 and early Round 3, we have Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson leading the pack, followed by Cam Skattebo, Dylan Sampson, Bhayshul Tuten, and D.J. Giddens (although his ADP is much closer to the cusp).

Johnson was viewed closer to the top tier before his poor combine showing, where he ran a sluggish 40 to go with an egregious 10-yard split.

The Iowa RB’s ADP as RB28 is way too high for a potential third-round pick, so he needs to fall some to be a worthwhile option.

His Fast Draft ADP at 7th overall in the Origins contest (RB4 overall) is also very tough to get behind.

The other Day 2 RB projections are much more palatable.

Skattebo (RB38), Sampson (RB48), Tuten (RB47), and Giddens (RB61).

Most of these RBs are going slightly ahead of 2023’s middle-round guys, who went between De’Von Achane (RB49) and Tyjae Spears (RB50).

The 3rd-4th round cluster from the 2024 class was drafted from RB34 to RB47 before the 2024 NFL Draft took place.

So, although this year’s class resembles 2023 versus 2024 more, we aren’t seeing as much of a discount on the second tier compared to the first tier. However, we are seeing a comparable price between the second tier of RBs from the last two classes. Because we know this second tier is better than last year, I like the odds of some of these RBs returning on their investment with requisite draft capital (even if it’s not as great a discount as the 2023 second tier).

I argued that last year’s rookie RB tier 2 was overvalued and was proven right. I feel differently this season.

Skattebo likely saved his draft capital by opting not to run the 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine. Although his reported and unofficial pro day 40 time was a 4.65 which might concerns some NFL coaching staffs. Although some times say it was closer to the 4.53-4.57 range. Speed isn’t his game regardless and I’m not moving him in my rankings based on inconclusive information.

All in all, the Arizona State RB needs to go on Day 2 because he needs volume at the next level.

I think he’s fairly priced given the upside potential and strong draft capital projection (same as Blake Corum in 2024). And his 3.24 yards per snap during his final year on 338 touches is very eye-opening.

I like Skattebo’s price the most on Fast Draft, as the RB8.

Tuten has been on an atomic rise since the NFL Combine, but we have been ahead of the curve on him. He was one of my favorite RB sleepers in this draft class pre-testing, so I was ecstatic to see him perform at such a high level. Unfortunately, you are now paying full price.

His cost is similar to De’Von Achane from 2023, so I think it’s fair. He has nearly 20 pounds on the Dolphins RB with similar speed and a strong production profile to back it up.

The best value has to be at Sampson. He is the RB7 on Fast Draft’s Origins rookie-only contest and in consensus NFL mock drafts. The Tennessee RB broke out in 2024 and is still yet to turn 21 years old.

Giddens is 6-foot-1 and 215 pounds with 4.43 wheels. He dominated at Kansas State the last two seasons after Deuce Vaughn left in 2022.

All Power Conference RBs to average >5.00 YPC in their career against stacked boxes to also run <4.49 in the 40 at the NFL Combine
+ Last 10 Years, min. 425 career carries

Jonathan Taylor (4.39)
Breece Hall (4.39)
R.J. Harvey (4.40)
TreVeyon Henderson (4.43)
D.J. Giddens (4.43)…

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) March 19, 2025

Giddens is ranked extremely low on Fast Draft as the RB12.

When we look at this class, finding 2023’s version of Achane should be the goal. The upside will be there with one of these Round 2/3 backs. And who the NFL deems worthy of being taken in these rounds will be told in such a deep class. Don’t be upset if your favorite guy doesn’t get Round 2+3 capital. Embrace the new information and don’t fall victim to take lock.

Again, we know the guys at the very top. But I’d figure one of these Round 3 running backs hits in a big way, and they come with a decent floor as a fantasy RB4.

If any of them end up going in Round 2, then you are getting an immediate ADP return and a substantial floor boost.

The ceiling of Round 2 RBs versus Round 3 RBs is identical at 11%. The drop-off is the floor.

Most analysts and draft pundits cluster “Day 2 running backs” together because the draft is set up in that fashion, but the facts advocate, we should view them separately when evaluating the floor/ceiling combination.

The volume and fantasy finish margin from round two to round three running backs is more significant than from round three to round four running backs.

Of the 37 running backs who’ve been drafted in the third round over the last 12 years, just five of them have finished as a top 24 running back in their rookie season (13%), while 26 of them finished outside of the top 36 running backs (70%).

All three of the RBs selected in last year’s third round failed to fire.

This year’s cluster of potential third-round RBs is headlined by Johnson, where draft capital won’t be as much of a differentiating factor among those selected. The team landing spot will matter much more. Because even if the floor bottoms out on most of the Rd 3-4 guys, we should have one or two ceiling hits (like 2023 Achane).

Given the strength and potential volume of RBs selected in Round 3, I’d be willing to chase the upside.

As I noted last season, going outside the top 50 RBs doesn’t typically yield strong results.

In 2023, there were no hits.

Last season, Bucky Irving was the biggest hit at RB54—very much an outlier performance.

Rookie running backs like Devin Neal (RB51), Ollie Gordon (RB57), RJ Harvey (RB58), and Damien Martinez (RB66) are facing uphill battles to meet their respective ADPs with expected draft positions (EDPs) outside the top 3 rounds given the average finished based on draft capital is closer to the 60s.

Ollie Gordon is the RB6 on Fast Draft’s Origins Tournament. This is a price I just can’t wrap my mind around as the RB10 in projected draft capital.

Neal has dropped to the RB12 slot in expected draft capital, so another fade on Fast Draft as the RB9.

Much prefer the Harvey/Martinez combo.

To a lesser extent, Martinez (RB66), Trevor Etienne (RB69), and Brashard Smith (RB71) are all overpriced for later Day 3 selections (outside Round 4).

Although Martinez (like Giddens) is also much cheaper on Fast Draft (RB14)

I think I’d rather wait and take shots on rookie RBs like Jordan James (RB78), Woody Marks (RB96), Jarquez Hunter (RB82), Raheim Sanders (RB89), Jaydon Blue (RB85), LeQuint Allen (RB93), Tahj Brooks (RB92), Marcus Yarns (RB97) and Kyle Monangai (RB104).

Day 3 RBs are guaranteed nothing, and it would be wise to invest in them with the least amount of fantasy capital possible. Be price sensitive when weighing rookie RB options to more concrete handcuffs if possible.

There’s a stark contrast between Marks’ season-long best ball ADP and his ADP on Fast Draft – where he is the RB10. That makes him a strong fade on FD.

My most drafted player through 20-plus in Origins drafts is Yarns.

He is a smaller back at 5-foot-11 and 193 pounds. But he averaged nearly three yards per snap during his four-year career at Delaware. Averaged 3.20-plus yards per snap over the last two seasons.

Yarns probably could have transferred to a bigger school during his senior year but opted to stay at Delaware due to his “love of the program.”

James is rumored to be a potential third-to-fourth-round pick according to Tony Pauline, vastly surpassing his expected draft position. CBS and former PFF Draft Analyst, Mike Renner, is also a very big fan of James, citing that he has the best vision in the class on Kevin Clark’s This Is Football Podcast.

Keep in mind that Rounds 4-7 are where things become a crapshoot, but there is some semblance to viewing the running backs selected in the first round of Day 3 in a separate tier from rounds five or later.

And it’s because round-four running backs look much more like round-three running backs from a post-draft production standpoint than their round-five or later counterparts.

This was true last season when the 2024 Round 4 RBs, led by Irving, out-paced the Round 5-plus RBs not-named Tyrone Tracy.

There’s a slightly higher hit rate in the fourth round than in rounds 5-7.

Players like Bucky Irving, Ray Davis, Isaac Guerendo, Braelon Allen, Tony Pollard, Dameon Pierce, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Chuba Hubbard most recently enjoyed fantasy-relevant weeks as fourth-round rookies. And for the most part, their values have stayed relatively steady in the dynasty context, if not on an upward trajectory, specifically after Year 1.

At least from a hit rate and floor standpoint. Because the ceiling-only argument leans more toward the fifth-round or later guys.

In the past six seasons, 64 running backs have been selected in rounds 5-7. Tyler Allgeier, Isiah Pacheco, Chase Brown, and the aforementioned Tracy have been the best of the bunch.

Over the same period, the big-hitting rookie running backs who significantly contributed to fantasy rosters were Phillip Lindsay and James Robinson, who both went undrafted. We’ve seen this more recently as well, with RBs like Jaylen Warren, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Keaton Mitchell. But it usually doesn’t last.

Furthermore, it’s still a massive uphill battle to wait until even early Day 3 to hear a running back’s name called.

From 2013 to 2021, just two Day 3 running backs finished as top 24 running backs (Jordan Howard in 2016, Zac Stacy in 2013). Tracy (RB26), Pierce (RB27), and Allgeier (RB28) came extremely close to top-24 status as rookies. A few guys also came seriously close in 2021 – Elijah Mitchell (RB25), Michael Carter (RB29), and Chuba Hubbard (RB33) – but ultimately fell short of cresting fantasy RB2 status.

Bucky Irving‘s performance last season was an outlier for a Round 4 pick.

We should not value any rookie running back drafted on Day 3 with a top-24 price tag, regardless of their landing spot.

This “process” is going to be tested this season, given the dynamics of a bad WR class/good RB class. I’m ready for battle.

Part of this stems from these later-round backs having to earn touches and work their way up the depth chart. After all, the draft capital constitutes that teams don’t have to play them.

Because they can only gain opportunities by showing out their talent in practices or preseason, I would highly recommend a lean towards the talent/athleticism of Day 3 running backs.

If they land on a team that boasts a weak running back depth chart, that should be added to the equation (see Tracy last season). But if all else is equal, go with the best player you think can deliver when called upon.

In this year’s class, I’d be open to a lot of cheap rookie RBs. Chances are their prices might increase if they are drafted earlier than expected, especially if they sneak into Round 4.

The NFL told us how it felt about this year’s rookie RB class compared to the veterans in free agency. Teams are going to be drafting rookie RBs, with some selecting more than one.

So preach patience with those Day 2 victory laps, as those rookies might not be alone in their backfields at the conclusion of draft weekend.

Wide Receivers

Ask anybody six years ago how long it takes for a wide receiver to break out and the typical response would usually be three seasons. But how the college game has evolved in recent years has influenced how impactful wide receivers can be from the start. LSU standouts Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. are the peak examples of the phenomenon, shattering record-after-record as first-year players.

Ohio State WRs Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave found similar success in their most recent rookie seasons. Last season, the trend continued; although it was with top-tier WRs along with ones drafted outside the first round – Ladd McConkey, Jalen McMillan – who also dominated as rookies.

Rookie Wide Receivers Since 2013

We have reached the point that if a receiver hasn’t hit by “Year 2” nowadays, the panic button goes off as both real-life and fantasy teams look to move on.

And I can’t argue the logic with that. The track record of rookie WRs who do nothing in Year 1 is bad. The most recent “success” story is Quentin Johnston, who bounced back after a god-awful rookie campaign. But before that, D.J. Chark was the last WR to have a great sophomore year after virtually doing nothing as a rookie. Even so, Chark has done nothing since. So QJ might not be out of the woods quite yet, especially with L.A. sniffing around the WR market in this year’s draft, according to Tony Pauline.

However, compared to running backs, you can see a stark contrast in hit rates based on draft capital.

Twenty-six percent of first-round wide receivers finishing as top-24 options is more probable than a third-round running back ending as a top-24 option (16%).

The most fantasy-relevant rookie wide receivers are consistently drafted in the first two rounds. 43 rookie wide receivers have finished inside the top 36 (WR3 territory) over the last 11 years – 36 were drafted inside the top two rounds of the NFL Draft (84%).

Round two or higher rookie wide receivers have combined for fantasy WR3 seasons at a 65% clip.

But similar to the running back position, there’s another drastic fall from round two to round three. Just 4-of-52 third-round wide receivers have finished top-36 since 2013, including one hit over the past four seasons – Tank Dell as the WR37. He likely would have easily surpassed this rank had it not been for the injuries.

There have been 35 wide receivers drafted in the fourth round from 2013-2020. Not a single one finished as a top-50 wide receiver in their rookie year.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is the only fourth-round WR to buck the trend since 2013. The Lions’ rookie wide receiver was the extreme outlier in this category in 2021, finishing as the WR21.

It was more of the same in 2024, with fourth-round rookie WRs between Javon Baker, Troy Franklin, Devontez Walker, and Jacob Cowing doing next to nothing in Year 1.

The primary takeaway is to go aggressively after wide receivers with round one or round two draft capital, but be extremely wary of those that go round three or later. St. Brown’s blazing 2021 season is not the norm; fantasy managers should not chase the possibility because it will not be easily replicated.

And neither is Puka Nacua‘s unprecedented ascension to WR1 status in 2023. Jalen Coker was the biggest hit among the WRs drafted (or undrafted in Coker’s case) on Day 3-plus in 2024.

Attacking rookies in 2025 is also very precarious because this class is not particularly strong compared to last season. The top doesn’t have nearly the same amount of talent as the 2024 WR class. It’s much more comparable to the 2023 draft class.

This is why it will be very telling who the NFL deems worthy to be taken within the first two rounds of a flat WR class.

In 2023, we got eight WRs in the first two rounds.

In 2024, we got 11.

I would be hammering the under on eight WRs being drafted in the first two rounds. And that includes Travis Hunter (although he doesn’t qualify as his position for betting purposes is CB).

The betting line for WRs to be selected in round one is set at 2.5 (not including Travis Hunter) with heavy juice toward the over (-320) according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

Last season, this line for Round 1 WRs was set at 6.5 WRs.

According to Grinding the Mocks, just five WRs have expected draft capital in the top 50 selections in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Tetaiora McMillan (WR30), Matthew Golden (WR47), Emeka Egbuka (WR45), Luther Burden (WR46), and Jayden Higgins (WR71) – with Higgins having the only EDP outside the top 32.

Ole Miss WR Tre Harris is also ranked right, slightly behind Higgins in real-life mocks, but slightly ahead in best ball ADP (WR62).

Higgins’ cheapest price is Fast Draft as the WR10.

Leveraging the mock draft database, it’s seven WRs in total inside the top-70, with Elic Ayomanor on atomic rise up the ranks as WR75 in early best ball ADP. Also WR7 on Fast Draft.

Travis Hunter – a projected top 5 real-life pick – is WR54 in early best ball ADP.

I’m going to keep my Hunter value point simple. Upside wins championships. And a WR drafted inside the top-5 NFL Draft is the definition of upside. Nobody can be quite sure about his usage as a WR/CB, but we don’t know how most rookies will be used on their new teams. Embrace the high-end outcome that a team decided to use Hunter more at WR than CB and reap the rewards. And if not, well, it’s a busted pick in a range where there are plenty of other busted picks that didn’t nearly have as much of a ceiling case as Hunter.

Current odds via BettingPros have Giants, Browns, and Patriots as Hunter’s top three options. Two of these teams have already talked about Hunter’s deployment as a WR. There are also rumblings that the Raiders might trade up for Hunter. Dallas has also been discussed as a potential team that could trade up for Hunter.

Alright, rant over. Back to the nerdy stuff.

There were 10 WRs pre-draft last season inside the top 34. Thirteen WRs had expected draft positions inside the top 64 picks in the 2024 draft class.

Last year, this made drafting rookie WRs an extreme value outside Marvin Harrison Jr., of course.

Last year’s “Big Three” adjusted quickly to the ADPs: Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR10), Malik Nabers (WR23) and Rome Odunze (WR31).

I felt my pre-draft value analysis of the Big Three was spot on.

“Harrison’s price tag is out of control, so I’d much rather take Nabers nearly 14 spots lower. But among the big three, Odunze’s the best value with the projection that he will be a top-10 pick. The concern is he falls victim to what happened to Smith-Njigba a season ago – landing on a Bears depth chart with two established WRs already in place. Shane Waldron did this in Seattle last season.”

In a weaker 2023 WR draft class, all non-Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR30) rookie WRs were selected after WR45.

In 2022, the top six rookie names were in the WR34-WR54 range.

JSN’s pre-draft ADP was similar to the pre-draft ADP that Jaylen Waddle, Ja’Marr Chase, and DeVonta Smith owned back in 2021.

It was also right in line with Odunze’s from the 2024 draft, despite the Washington product being a pre-draft projected top-10 pick.

McMillan – as the overwhelming favorite to be the WR1 in this year’s class – is going in the same range JSN, Odunze, Drake London and Chris Olave, etc.

It’s fair but carries significant risk, given McMillan’s range of projected draft slots could be as high as the top 5 and as low as the teens to mid-20s.

The Arizona WR is appropriately valued, but he needs to follow through with high draft capital and an ideal landing spot to exceed his ADP.

From a price perspective, there’s a steep drop-off from T-Mac and the rest of the WRs in the 2025 draft class.

And just like the 2023 class, all non-McMillan rookie WRs were being selected at WR45 or later.

Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers have been big hits, while Quentin Johnston improved in Year 2. Jalin Hyatt was on the outside looking in that tier and has done nothing since being drafted.

Given the lack of buzz around this year’s Round 1 WR group, it’s a risky proposition to use any top 50 picks on Burden and Egbuka.

Golden’s 40-yard dash seems like it will lock him into Round 1, so he’s the one I’d feel best drafting pre-draft. But Burden/Egbuka should be going closer to outside the top 50, where we saw guys like Ladd McConkey and Keon Coleman, among other WRs, be selected last season pre-draft.

Again, if only three WRs are drafted in Round 1, one of Burden/Egbuka will fall outside Round 1 entirely. Taking them, this high pre-draft will be hard to justify if the become second-round picks. Also increases their chances of landing on a bad team.

From a value perspective, there are better rookie WRs to target outside the top 70 WRs. You’ve also got the upside that maybe one sneaks into Day 1. When the difference between the top and middle WR tiers is marginal, you want to wait and scoop up the value.

Jayden Higgins (WR71), Elic Ayomanor (WR75), Jaylin Noel (WR78), Isaiah Bond (WR76), Jalen Royals (WR82), Jack Bech (WR84), Xavier Restrepo (WR87), Tory Horton (WR95), Savion Williams (WR98), Tai Felton (WR112), Don’t’e Thornton Jr. (WR132), Jaylin Lane (WR140) and Isaac TeSlaa (WR145).

The best values are Higgins, Ayomanor, Noel, and Bech, given their projected draft capital in Round 2, if not early Round 3.

Noel, in particular, is the best of the bunch. I’ve yet to hear anything negative about Noel, and that goes beyond what my colleague Derek Brown has constantly raved about him. There are two types of people in this world.

Those that love Iowa State WR Jaylin Noel AND liars.

The 5-foot-10 and 194-pound WR produced at an extremely high level despite sharing the field with fellow 2025 WR draft prospect Jayden Higgins the last two seasons. 33% dominator rating in his final year.

Noel also tested off the charts at the NFL Scouting Combine and is ready-made to produce from the slot at the next level. He finished second in the class in total air yards as a vertical downfield threat and first in yards on passes thrown 20-plus air yards.

Had Noel gotten better QB play, there’s a chance he would be going much higher in the NFL Draft. He had one of the lowest traditional passer ratings on throws when targeted (Sports Info Solutions).

Royals, Restrepo, Williams, Johnson, Bond, and Williams round out the remaining WRs on the Round 3 cusp.

Royals is the highest on Fast Draft (WR8).

But I’d be betting against guys like Restrepo, Johnson and Bond earning Day 2 draft capital. Johnson has major size concerns. Restrepo’s draft stock has fallen this offseason. The Miami WR wasn’t the greatest at the Senior Bowl and ran a 4.8 on his pro day.

Bond is super talented, but he has a laundry list of off-the-field concerns that could push him down draft boards.

Johnson is overvalued as the WR12 on Fast Draft, with Restrepo not far behind as WR14. Bond is at its worst price at WR9.

I’d be more confident betting on the TCU WRs and Royals to be Round 3 selections.

Bech had a monster 2024 campaign, posting a 28% dominator rating. He also led all WRs in the class in EPA/target. Simply put, good things happened at TCU when Bech got the rock. That, along with his strong Senior Bowl showing, hasn’t gone unnoticed by NFL teams.

Going 63rd overall in the consensus mocks would make him a late Round 2 pick.

However, expectations with this crop for immediate production should be modest at best. This next tier of rookie WRs is going nearly 20 picks later than last year’s crop.

The WRs drafted in this range with an ADP outside the top 70 were Ja’Lynn Polk, Ricky Pearsall, and Xavier Legette. And they all had strong draft capital last season. There is no guarantee (and very unlikely) that any of these guys will go at the end of Round 1.

At least they are being appropriately priced based on expectations compared to the WRs being drafted ahead of them. I think the gap is too large outside of T-Mac.

All the other guys are expected to be Day 3 picks, and any that go earlier would be surprising.

Keep in mind that these guys on the cusp are more likely to fall than surge up, given the lack of WR strength in the class.

Tai Felton finished second among the WRs in this class in total targets last season (149) and with a 31% target share. According to Tony Pauline, Felton will be a Day 2 draft selection after another strong showing at Maryland’s pro day.

He is in the WR15-WR17 range on both Fast Draft and real-life NFL mocks, but he is completely overlooked in early best ball formats.

Washington State’s Kyle Williams barely has an early best ball ADP. He is WR20 on Fast Draft. On Mock Draft Database, he is a projected Day 3 pick, but as the WR17. By far the best pick you can make with your last pick on FD.

He finished third in the class in deep-ball catches (14).

Colorado State’s Tory Horton is coming off a season-ending knee injury after back-to-back dominant seasons from 2022-2023. There’s an injury discount with Horton, but high-end draft capital would suppress concerns about his recovery. He seems back to full health now, and an NFL team would be getting a steal with him after just one year removed from a nearly 100-catch, 1200-yard season.

Before his injury, he ranked 4th in the nation in yards per route run.

Other WRs that deserve last-round consideration on FD’s origins contest: Dont’e Thornton, Jaylin Lane and Isaac TeSlaa.

All in all, it’s best to temper expectations with this rookie WR class. Don’t over pursue.

There’s a reason why the veteran WR market was so lucrative this offseason.

NFL Teams know this isn’t a strong WR class.

And if your “favorite” WR in this class doesn’t go in the first two rounds, you are climbing an uphill battle for Year 1 production. Tread lightly.

The top guys rarely slip out of the first two rounds. In a bad class, I’d bet this is compounded.

Dial in on the rookie WRs with projected round one or two draft capital and reap the rewards, especially in the late rounds. Grabbing these late-round WRs allows you to stockpile RBs, QBs, and TEs earlier in your best ball drafts.

2025 is going to be a great year for zero RB drafters.

Tight Ends

There was once a time when you could always look the other way in redraft leagues when it comes to rookie tight ends. Kyle Pitts from four years ago looked like the lone exception to the general rule of thumb. He was used more like a wide receiver in the Atlanta Falcons offense, which is why he found success as the TE7 overall in his first season. The dude is also just a unicorn, and no standard rookie tight ends should be compared to him. But give credit to Matt Ryan, who is no stranger to fueling fantasy success.

At the time, Pitts joined Evan Engram as the only rookie tight end to finish as a top-12 option over since 2022. Although Pat Freiermuth came close in 2021, finishing 2021 as the TE13 thanks to seven receiving touchdowns. The Penn State product is also the first rookie tight end selected in the second round to finish as a top-18 option since 2013.

I am burying the lede here, of course, because 2023 brought us an elite rookie tight end and the overall fantasy TE1 in Sam LaPorta. Fellow rookie Dalton Kincaid also finished as a TE1 (TE12). We have now had four rookie tight ends finish inside the top 12 as rookies. And they all played with good quarterbacks.

Tucker Kraft was also productive at TE28, as was fellow rookie Packers TE Luke Musgrave (TE31). Michael Mayer was the TE33 to round out a beyond-productive tight-end rookie class.

2024 presented us with another elite rookie tight end in Brock Bowers. Despite shaky QB play, he finished as the fantasy TE2 overall through 17 weeks.

Rookie Tight Ends since 2013

That being said, Bowers was drafted as an elite TE prospect at 13th overall – the highest TE drafted since Pitts (4th overall) and T.J. Hockenson (8th overall).

A rookie tight end needs strong draft capital to produce in Year 1. 2022’s best-performing rookie tight end, Chigoziem Okonkwo, as a fifth-rounder, is out of the norm.

Simply put, a first-year tight end almost always needs to be drafted in round one for hopes of fantasy relevance in Year 1 with a respectable 74 target average (TE16 last season). Round two is much tougher to get behind for any tight end historically, at least before the 2023 season.

Last season, Bower’s strong projected draft capital was a reason to be “in.” He was the TE9 as a sure-fire lock to be a high first-rounder and the No. 1 overall tight end selected.

The Georgia product was not being slept on in any capacity compared to last year’s first-round projected TEs between Mayer (TE21) and Kincaid (TE25).

He was drafted as a locked-in fantasy TE1 and surpassed all expectations despite a poor landing spot.

Fast forward to this season, Penn State’s Tyler Warren has a strikingly similar ADP to Bowers.

TE9 in early best ball ADP. Interesting.

Based on his projected draft capital in the top 15, it lines up. But I can’t help but think his price will drop post-draft.

According to sports books, the Jets, Colts, Saints, and Bears are his top four most likely landing spots.

Are we thrilled with any of those spots? I’m not sold. None of those teams has a QB that will fuel a fantasy TE to success.

I think he will be Jet when it’s all said and done. They missed on Bowers last season and won’t let another dynamic tight end pass them by.

And although Warren has the same ADP as Bowers, I think the former is by far the inferior prospect as a one-year wonder at age 23.

Those are some of the concerns with Warren’s pre-draft value.

I much prefer Michigan’s Colston Loveland, who is projected to be this year’s second TE drafted. Some NFL teams have Loveland as TE1 in the class.

And I think his odds of landing favorably are much better than Warren’s, with the Chargers being the ideal landing spot. Being reunited with Jim Harbaugh doesn’t hurt either.

He is TE14 in ADP when I think his game is more similar to Bowers than Warren.

Don’t be surprised that even if Warren gets drafted first, Loveland surpasses him in the rankings post-draft.

After the top two guys, we have another tier between Elijah Arroyo (TE35), Mason Taylor (TE39) and Harold Fannin Jr. (TE30).

They are all projected to be second-to-third-round picks. This is different from last season, when we have zero TEs projected to go in Round 2. Only two – Ben Sinnott and Tip Reiman – were drafted on Day 2 in last year’s draft.

So, we already have much more depth than last year’s class.

And these guys are all much cheaper than last year’s projected Day 2 TE prospect, Ja’Tavion Sanders, who was the TE25 last season. I argued that was way too high for a potential late second-round pick. Sanders would end up being drafted on Day 3 in the fourth round.

Great values on some of these second-tier TEs based solely on Day 2 draft capital. Arroyo is by far my favorite, given he is the projected third TE to be drafted in the real NFL Draft but is the TE4 in rookie ADP.

Arroyo was second in the nation in yards after the catch per reception (8.9) despite the 7^th-highest average depth of target (11.1). Averaged nearly 17 yards per catch, by far the most of any tight end in college football.

But Taylor might end up being the third tight end drafted after Warren/Loveland. The LSU tight end has been most consistently mocked in Round 2, so there’s some value on him at his current price. He has an official top-30 visit with the Chargers.

After the top 5 tight ends, we enter potential Day 3 territory. As I said at the top, there should be little expectation for any of these guys to produce fantasy relevance in Year 1.

That makes tight ends like Oronde Gadsden and Gunnar Helm easy best ball fades.

However, there’s a chance that one of these projected Day 3 tight ends up sneaking into Day 2. My best bet for that player would be Oregon’s Terrance Ferguson (TE43).

He tested extremely well at the NFL Scouting Combine and finished first in the nation in yards after the catch per reception (9.0) in 2024.

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