Quarterback is the most important position in football — and arguably the most important position in any team sport. More than half of NFL plays are passes, and on those plays, the quarterback is responsible for avoiding pass rushers, determining where to throw the ball and delivering an accurate, catchable pass to a receiver. Even on running plays, the quarterback is an important functionary, serving as the middleman between the center and the ballcarrier. In most fantasy football leagues, quarterback is not the most important position. Although quarterbacks are typically the most prolific point scorers in fantasy, you only need to start one of them, and the gap between a high-level fantasy quarterback and a mid-level fantasy quarterback isn’t always that big.
Superflex fantasy leagues, which allow managers to start two quarterbacks, are a different story. Quarterbacks are enormously important in superflex leagues. More on that a little later.
But in 1-QB fantasy leagues, which still vastly outnumber superflex leagues, quarterbacks are devalued relative to their importance in actual football.
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy, Rankings & Tiers: Quarterbacks
When to Draft a Quarterback
The big question is how much to invest in the quarterback position. Is it best to draft one of the top quarterbacks in an early round, or to focus on other positions in early rounds and draft a quarterback later?
There is obvious appeal to investing in a top quarterback. The quarterbacks who provide needle-moving rushing stats on top of their passing stats are highly valuable.
Josh Allen has averaged 24.2 fantasy points per game over the last three years, never averaging fewer than 22.6 fantasy points per game in any of those seasons.
Allen’s average draft position (ADP) is 21 overall, so he’s typically drafted late in the second round in 12-team leagues. Players with similar ADPs include Drake London, A.J. Brown and Chase Brown.
If you wait to draft your top quarterback, Kyler Murray and Jared Goff are among the other options. Murray has averaged 18.5 fantasy points per game over the last three years (but has missed 15 games over that stretch). Goff has averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game over the last three years.
While Allen is either the first or second quarterback selected in most fantasy drafts, Murray has an ADP of QB9 (87 overall) and Goff is at QB10 (88 overall).
Murray and Goff are typically drafted in the eighth round of a 12-team draft. Wide receivers with ADPs similar to Murray and Goff are Deebo Samuel, and Rome Odunze.
You could draft Allen in the elate second round and either Samuel or Odunze in the eighth round. Or, you could also draft London, A.J. Brown or Chase Brown in the late second, and either Murray or Goff in the eighth.
Is the 2025 fantasy scoring gap between Allen and Murray/Goff going to be bigger than the gap between the second-round and eighth-round non-QBs?
The key factor to this is opportunity cost. At what point do we get an affordable opportunity cost for drafting a quarterback rather than a player at another position?
In a 1QB league, you only have to start one quarterback, but you have to start somewhere around 5-6 running backs and wide receivers, depending on lineup configurations. And it’s good to have depth at those positions to guard against injuries and underachievement.
You can probably guess which way I lean in the early versus late quarterback debate. I tend to load my shopping cart with receivers and backs early on and find my quarterback in the eighth round or later.
I don’t want to be underpowered at wide receiver in any PPR league or in any league that requires you to start at least three wideouts. While I’m willing to be a bit more patient at running back, I generally like to get one in the first three rounds and another by the end of the seventh round.
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Targets & Avoids
Not everyone will agree with my take on quarterback strategy. Part of what makes fantasy football so fun is that different managers have wildly different team-building philosophies. Some fantasy managers always spend up at the quarterback position. Some play the waiting game at quarterback every year.
To accommodate various quarterback philosophies, I’m going list quarterbacks to target and avoid at three different price levels and explain why I’m in or out on these players.
High-End Quarterbacks
Target: Lamar Jackson
If you’re going to spend up at quarterback, you may as well get the best.
Jackson’s ADP is 27 overall, just one spot ahead of Josh Allen. He led all quarterbacks with 25.6 fantasy points per game last season, three points better than Allen (22.6).
Jackson had his best season as a passer in 2024, establishing career highs in passing yardage (4,172), touchdown passes (41), yards per attempt (8.8) and passer rating (119.6).
There could be some regression in Jackson’s passing numbers this year. Jackson probably won’t be able to match his 8.6% touchdown rate (although he had a 9% touchdown rate in 2019). On the other hand, Jackson ran for only four touchdowns last season — the third-lowest total of his eight-year career — and he could get a bump in that category.
It’s not unreasonable to think some of the gains Jackson has made as a passer could stick. The man is at the height of his powers.
Avoid: Josh Allen
Josh Allen was on the 2024 avoid list, too. While he finished QB2 in fantasy scoring last season, Allen’s 22.6 fantasy points per game were a five-year low.
The primary concern remains the same: A lack of pass-catching firepower in Buffalo. Allen hasn’t had a marquee pass-catcher since Stefon Diggs left Buffalo after the 2023 season.
Allen finished with 3,731 passing yards last season, an average of 219.5 passing yards per game — fewer than not-so-golden oldies Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. It was the first time since 2019 Allen failed to reach 4,000 passing yards, and his 28 touchdown passes were also a five-year low.
Avoid: Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow is one of the best pure passers in the game and should be again in 2025. The thing is, Burrow has to put up elite passing numbers just to earn his keep in fantasy, because he provides very little rushing value.
Burrow led the league in passing yardage (4,918) and touchdown passes (43) last year. He finished tied with Baker Mayfield for QB3 in fantasy scoring. Burrow might have to lead the NFL in passing yardage and touchdowns again just to return a small profit on his QB5 ADP.
As a general rule, it’s wise not to overvalue pocket passers in fantasy.
Mid-Level Quarterbacks
Target: Brock Purdy
In his two full seasons as an NFL starter, Purdy has finished QB7 and QB10 in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks who made at least six starts.
Purdy is averaging 8.9 yards per pass attempt for his career. Just to put that number into perspective, the best single-season YPA that Tom Brady had in his career was 8.6 in 2011. Purdy averaging 8.9 yards per attempt over 40 career games shows that (1) Purdy is good; (2) Kyle Shanahan’s system is good.
And Purdy gave us some rushing value last year: 323 rushing yards and five touchdown runs. Maybe the rushing numbers regress, but Purdy could be due for a positive bounce in passing touchdown rate. Only 4.4% of his throws resulted in TDs last year. That’s below his career mark of 6%.
Avoid: Justin Herbert
This isn’t about Justin Herbert; this is about his ecosystem.
Under offensive coordinator Greg Roman, the Chargers had the 10th run-heaviest offense in the league last season. They also operated at the second slowest pace in the NFL. The Chargers have since spent a first-round draft pick on running back Omarion Hampton.
Herbert averaged only 29.6 pass attempts per game and finished the season with 3,870 passing yards, 23 touchdown passes and only three interceptions. He added 306 rushing yards and two touchdown scores on the ground.
While Herbert is widely regarded as an above-average quarterback in real life, the Chargers’ run-heavy approach and sluggish offensive pace will likely keep him from being a valuable fantasy quarterback.
QB2 Range
Target: Drake Maye
Drake Maye is my favorite draft target at the quarterback position. We want quarterbacks who add rushing value, but the most prolific running quarterbacks of 2024 — Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels — are all going to be expensive in 2025 drafts.
Meanwhile, Maye’s potential rushing value isn’t as obvious, but it’s there. As a rookie, Maye started 12 games and had 421 rushing yards and two touchdown runs. As a sophomore at the University of North Carolina, Maye had 698 rushing yards in 14 games.
Remember that college quarterbacks’ sack yardage counts against their rushing yardage. Maye lost about 200 yards from his rushing total that year. In his two seasons as a college starter, Maye had 16 touchdown runs in 26 games, so it’s probably fair to expect more than two touchdown runs this year.
Also, Maye acquitted himself reasonably well as a passer despite seeing NFL defenses for the first time and having a terrible supporting cast. The Patriots have since made upgrades to their offensive line and pass-catchers.
If you want to wait it out at quarterback and still draft one with top-10 or even top-five potential, Maye is your guy.
Avoid: C.J. Stroud
C.J. Stroud was terrific as a rookie in 2023 and disappointing in 2024. His decline last year was more about a terrible offensive line than it was about Stroud himself.
The thing is, Houston hasn’t significantly upgraded its offensive line, so a return to 2023 glory probably isn’t in the cards.
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Superflex Leagues
Quarterback draft strategy changes in superflex leagues, which allow you to start a second quarterback in one of your flex spots. Quarterbacks score more points than players at other positions, so in a league where you’re able to start two of them, and where everyone is rostering more quarterbacks than in a 1QB league, the position becomes hugely important.
The supply-and-demand outlook is much different in superflex leagues, too. There are 32 starting NFL quarterbacks in a week without byes. Ideally, you’ll have at least three quarterbacks who are NFL starters on your superflex roster. But in a 12-team superflex league, at least four teams won’t have a third quarterback who’s an NFL starter.
In a 1QB league, demand is light and supply is ample. In a superflex league, demand is high, but the supply is limited.
You’ll typically see 8-9 quarterbacks selected in the first round of a superflex startup draft. Once the draft is over, good quarterbacks will be expensive in the trade market.
The consequences of punting the quarterback position in a ssuperflex league are daunting. It’s hard to win games when you’re starting Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold, and your opponents are throwing Jayden Daniels/Baker Mayfield and Jalen Hurts/Brock Purdy combos at you.
Ideally, you’ll draft an anchor quarterback in round one or round two. Beyond the first two rounds, things get more complicated. The goal is to draft opportunistically at the quarterback position to maximize value, but also to not get left out in the cold. It’s a difficult balancing act because quarterbacks are almost always overdrafted from round two on in superflex leagues. You may be forced to abandon value-seeking principles when addressing the quarterback position.
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Quarterback Tiers
Here are the top 30 quarterbacks in my redraft fantasy football draft rankings, sorted into tiers, with thoughts on some of the players from each tier.
Tier 1
Jayden Daniels is coming off a sterling rookie season in which he threw for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns, with an additional 891 rushing yards and six touchdown runs. The Commanders upgraded Daniels’ supporting cast in the offseason, adding Deebo Samuel, along with stalwart left tackle Laremy Tunsil. Expect more fantasy goodness from the No. 2 pick in last year’s NFL Draft.
The NFL didn’t outlaw the tush push, so Jalen Hurts has a chance to extend his streak of four straight seasons with double-digit touchdown runs. In four seasons as an NFL starter, Jalen Hurts has finished QB6, QB1, QB2 and QB6 in fantasy points per game. The reason for last year’s slippage? Hurts was knocked out of a Week 16 game with a concussion and missed the last two regular-season contests.
Tier 2
After averaging more than 20 fantasy points per game in each of his first five seasons as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback, Patrick Mahomes has averaged fewer than 19 fantasy points per game in each of the last two seasons and has finished outside the top 10 in that category among quarterbacks. Subpar protection from his offensive line and a season-ending injury to receiver Rashee Rice early on didn’t help, but it’s now difficult to envision Mahomes leading all quarterbacks in fantasy scoring, as he did in 2018 and 2022.
Baker Mayfield hit career highs in passing yardage (4,500), touchdown passes (41), completion percentage (71.4%), yards per attempt (7.9) and rushing yardage (378) last season. Mayfield had never thrown 30 touchdown passes in any previous season, so we should probably expect regression. It’s also possible the Buccaneers’ offense is less effective this year, with 2024 offensive coordinator Liam Coen leaving to take the Jacksonville head coaching job. But Mayfield has a terrific supporting cast and has turned a corner in his career.
Caleb Williams is an interesting case. The No. 1 pick of the 2024 NFL Draft finished his rookie season with 3,541 passing yards, 20 touchdown passes and six interceptions in 17 starts, adding 489 rushing yards but no rushing touchdowns. He also took a league-high 68 sacks. But the Bears’ offensive line was leaky, and the play-calling was questionable. Bears general manager Ryan Poles hired highly regarded play-caller Ben Johnson as Chicago’s head coach, upgraded the offensive line in free agency and added tight end Colston Loveland and wide receiver Luther Burden in the draft. Williams may take a big step forward this year, and his fantasy value soars.
Tier 3
Dak Prescott tore his hamstring off the bone in the Cowboys’ Week 9 loss to the Falcons and missed the rest of the season. Prescott had been the QB3 in fantasy scoring in 2023, averaging 20.7 fantasy points per game. Although he doesn’t run much anymore, Prescott could be a good wait-on-quarterback target in 2025 fantasy drafts since he’s likely to come at a discount
We’ve been waiting a long time for a Trevor Lawrence breakout season. The No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft has never finished better than QB12 in fantasy points per game. After an injury-marred season in which he missed seven games, there’s reason to believe this will be the best season of Lawrence’s career. New Jaguars head coach Liam Coen coaxed a career-best season out of Baker Mayfield last season in Tampa. And the Jaguars aggressively traded up to the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft to take two-way college star Travis Hunter, to primarily use Hunter as a wide receiver.
J.J. McCarthy missed his entire rookie season with a torn meniscus in his knee but enters 2025 as the Vikings’ undisputed starting quarterback. He steps into a very healthy offensive ecosystem. Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is one of the NFL’s best play-callers. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison form a terrific receiver duo, and T.J. Hockenson is a top tight end. The Vikings have a good pair of offensive tackles and upgraded the middle of their offensive line in the offseason. McCarthy has a live arm and offers intriguing rushing upside. He had eight touchdown runs in his final two college seasons at Michigan.
Tier 4
The Raiders traded a third-round draft pick for Geno Smith in March and gave him a two-year contract extension worth $85.5 million. Smith will helm an intriguing Raiders offense that will be guided by new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who likes to run his offense at a brisk pace. Tight end Brock Bowers was a revelation as a rookie, wide receiver Jakobi Meyers is a dependable veteran and the Raiders added running back Ashton Jeanty and wide receiver Jack Bech in the draft. Smith finished as the QB13 in fantasy scoring last season, averaging 16.5 fantasy points per game. He’ll be drafted as a low-end QB or high-end QB3. He could return a nice profit on his rummage-sale cost.
Michael Penix Jr. heads into the 2025 season as the Falcons’ unquestioned starting quarterback after sitting behind Kirk Cousins for most of the 2024 season. In three late-season starts, Penix completed 58% of his throws and averaged 245.7 passing yards per game and 7.4 yards per attempt, with three touchdowns and three interceptions. Penix is a pocket passer who doesn’t offer much rushing upside. But with his rocket arm, Penix led FBS. quarterbacks in passing yardage in each of his final two college seasons at Washington.
Tier 5
The top pick in this year’s NFL Draft, Cam Ward is expected to open the season as the Titans’ starter. He threw for 4,313 yards and 39 touchdowns at the University of Miami last season. Ward is an aggressive passer who’ll challenge defenses downfield. He’ll also add some value as a runner. Ward will undoubtedly hit some rookie-year bumps as he adjusts to the NFL, but he has the potential to be a fantasy QB2 right away.
After two disappointing and injury-marred seasons, Anthony Richardson will begin the season as a backup to ex-Giant Daniel Jones. But I promise you: Richardson will make starts for the Colts this season. The fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Richardson played only four games as a rookie due to a shoulder injury but flashed immense fantasy potential, with 136 rushing yards and four touchdown runs, along with three touchdown passes. But Richardson was awful as a passer last season, completing only 47.7% of his passes, with eight touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The 6-foot-4, 244-pound Richardson is a remarkable physical specimen who still offers considerable fantasy upside because of his rushing ability, but his struggles as a passer threaten to derail his career.
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