Every year, fantasy football drafts are filled with landmines-players who look like reliable picks on the surface but ultimately fail to live up to their cost. To help you avoid these traps in 2025, we’ve gathered insights from our Featured Pros, who have identified the biggest consensus busts for the upcoming season. Whether it’s inflated ADPs, unsustainable production from last year, or unfavorable team situations, these experts have highlighted the players most likely to disappoint relative to draft capital. Before you’re on the clock, make sure you know which names to cross off your cheat sheet.
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2025 Consensus Fantasy Football Busts: Quarterbacks
Quarterback Fantasy Football Busts
| Player | Votes |
| Jared Goff | 10 |
| Kyler Murray | 10 |
| Baker Mayfield | 9 |
| 8 | |
| Brock Purdy | 5 |
| Justin Fields | 5 |
| Bo Nix | 3 |
| Caleb Williams | 2 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 |
| Jayden Daniels | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 |
Patrick Mahomes (KC)
“People are still chasing Patrick Mahomes from years ago. He is being drafted as the QB6 right now. He was a top 6 QB twice in 2023 and three times in 2024. In 2024, Mahomes finished outside the top-12 QBs in over 50% of his games (11). Kelce is aging, Rice has a pending suspension, and this team can’t pass block. They have morphed into a defensive team and a ball control offense. Don’t draft Mahomes this early.”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast Network)
“Patrick Mahomes – Before I explain myself, let me preface with acknowledging that Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks right now and possibly ever. With that said, I don’t think the Chiefs need him to be the highly productive fantasy quarterback he once was a few years ago. He’s currently being drafted near the 5th or 6th round as the QB6, which I think is too high. You can wait and draft a Brock Purdy or a Jared Goff in the 8th or 9th round and get similar production at the QB position. Bust is probably the wrong word to use for Mahomes, but I don’t believe he’s going to have the fantasy production his ADP warrants.”
– Joey Meinerding (Fantasy Dink)
Kyler Murray (ARI)
“The rushing upside of Kyler Murray keeps him palatable for fantasy managers, but his passing stats continue to underwhelm, and his 6.8 AYPA ranked 34th last year. Thus, Arizona struggled to generate chunk plays. By shrinking the field to Murray’s benefit, the Cardinals’ offense lacks scoring potential. The offensive line overperformed in 2024, and I foresee a regression to the mean this season. Ultimately, Murray doesn’t elevate his teammates: he never has, and he never will.”
– Matt De Lima (Athlon Sports)
Jared Goff (DET)
“Jared Goff comes crashing back down to Earth with the loss of Ben Johnson. Fantasy managers are selecting him as a late-round “value” to be their QB1. I wouldn’t count on him this year as more than a spot start, bye week replacement.”
– Stephen L Tomasin (IDP+)
Baker Mayfield (TB)
“Baker Mayfield had such an outlier season and is now being drafted as if that is his new floor. Mayfield had his highest yards per attempt at 7.9 of his career and had a touchdown percentage 1.6% higher than the best in his career. He also had the same number of rush attempts as his career averages, but gained more than double the yards. Everything about his profile is screaming regression while his OC leaves, Evans is now 32, his WR2 is likely starting the year on the PUP, and his left tackle is injured.”
– Justin Weigal (FantasySharks)
Joe Burrow (CIN)
“Joe Burrow – Despite having Burrow as my QB5, which is right around where he tends to go in drafts, I am weary of selecting him this season. The issue I take with him is that he is currently being drafted right around the four elite rushing quarterbacks – all of whom have much safer floors than Burrow. Last year, Burrow threw a league-leading 43 touchdowns; this year, his over/under is set for 33.5. If you kept all his stats the same as last year, but gave him 9.5 fewer passing TDs, he would have been the QB7 in points per game (4-point passing TD). Due to his lack of rushing, Burrow needs to have another extreme outlier touchdown season in order to pay off his ADP – something difficult to predict, making Burrow difficult to bank on high in fantasy drafts.”
– Charlie Sisian (The Fantasy DC)
Expert Fantasy Football Bust Picks
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