Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans
Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings
| Gardner Minshew | QB | QB2 |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | RB3/4 |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | RB3/4 |
| Brashard Smith | RB | RB5 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | TBD |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | TBD |
| Hollywood Brown | WR | WR6 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | TE1 |
Titans Players & Weekly Rankings
| Cam Ward | QB | QB2 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | RB2/3 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | RB3/4 |
| Elic Ayomanor | WR | WR5 |
| Chimere Dike | WR | WR4 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE | TE2/3 |
| Gunnar Helm | TE | TE2/3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
*Rashee Rice is in the concussion protocol. He didn’t practice on Wednesday, but if he clears the concussion protocol for this week, he should be in your lineups.*
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
With Patrick Mahomes tearing his ACL, Gardner Minshew will be the Chiefs’ starting quarterback for the remainder of the 2025 season. This is a wonderful spot for him to get his first start in a Chiefs’ uniform. Last year, Minshew didn’t register a single QB1 outing in weekly scoring. Among 47 qualifying passers last year, Minshew ranked 34th in yards per attempt, 37th in highly accurate throw rate, 32nd in catchable target rate, and 42nd in fantasy points per dropback. None of that is impressive or honestly good, but Minshew could still put up QB1 numbers this week because the Tennessee pass defense is that bad. Since Week 11, they have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game, the second-highest yards per attempt, and the seventh-highest success rate per dropback.
Travis Kelce is the TE5 in fantasy points per game with a 17.9% target share, 56.9 receiving yards per game, 1.82 yards per route run, and a 19.1% first-read share. Kelce has 11 red zone targets and seven deep targets this season. Even with Gardner Minshew tossing him passes, Kelce is a strong TE1 this week. Since Week 9, Tennessee has allowed the fifth-most yards per target and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Cam Ward is the QB33 in fantasy points per game, with only one weekly performance better than QB17 this season. He hasn’t thrown for more than 265 yards in any game this season, but he does have two passing touchdowns in each of the last two games. Ward should be able to muster decent QB2 numbers this week. Since Week 11, Kansas City has allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game, the 14th-most yards per attempt, and ranked 15th in success rate per dropback.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Tony Pollard has turned in his two best games of the season over the last two weeks with a 56.3% snap rate, 20 touches, and 135.5 total yards per game. He was the RB2 and RB11 in weekly scoring. Since Week 14, Pollard has churned out a 10.3% explosive run rate and a 15% missed tackle rate. In those two games, he has had a combined two targets and one reception, so don’t expect much passing game usage this week. Pollard will need a ton of volume this week to pay off for fantasy against one of the best run defenses in the NFL. Since Week 11, Kansas City has allowed the 11th-lowest explosive run rate, the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the second-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Last week, Pacheco took over as the team’s goalline back with five red zone rushing attempts, 11 touches, and 21 total yards. He played 45.8% of the snaps with a 35% route share. Pacheco is a flex option that is best left on the bench. Pacheco will be running behind a battered offensive line and against an improved Titans’ run defense. Since Week 11, Tennessee has allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, and the eighth-lowest missed tackle rate.
Last week, Kareem Hunt ceded control of the Kansas City backfield to Isiah Pacheco. Hunt had only one red zone rushing attempt, while Pacheco had five. Hunt finished with a 49.2% snap rate, a 42.5% route share, seven touches, and 20 total yards. Sit Hunt this week. The Tennessee run defense has MASSIVELY improved. Since Week 11, Tennessee has allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, and the eighth-lowest missed tackle rate.
I’ll update Xavier Worthy‘s outlook for Week 16 once we know more about Rashee Rice‘s availability on Friday. If Rice is unable to clear the concussion protocol, I expect Worthy to operate in the “Rice role” like he did last season.
Since Week 12, Chimere Dike has had two top-20 wide receiver weekly scoring outings. In his last four games, Dike has had a 79.3% route share, a 17.5% target share, 23.3 receiving yards per game, 0.78 yards per route run, and a 23.8% first-read share. Across his last four games, Dike has had six red zone targets and three deep targets. Dike is a flex option best left on the bench this week. Since Week 10, Kansas City has allowed the third-fewest PPR points per target and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
LAR vs. SEA | PHI vs. WAS | GB vs. CHI | BUF vs. CLE | LAC vs. DAL | NYJ vs. NO | TB vs. CAR | MIN vs. NYG | KC vs. TEN | CIN vs. MIA | ATL vs. ARI | JAC vs. DEN | LV vs. HOU | PIT vs. DET | NE vs. BAL | SF vs. IND
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins
- CIN -4.5, O/U 47.5
- Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings
| Joe Burrow | QB | QB1 |
| Chase Brown | RB | RB1/2 |
| Samaje Perine | RB | RB3 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | WR | WR1 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | TBD |
| Andrei Iosivas | WR | WR4/5 |
| Mike Gesicki | TE | TE2 |
Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings
| Quinn Ewers | QB | QB2 |
| De’Von Achane | RB | RB1 |
| Ollie Gordon | RB | RB3 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | WR2 |
| Malik Washington | WR | WR4/5 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | WR6 |
| Darren Waller | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Excluding the Week 7 game, where Waller left early with the pec injury, he has had a 61.5% route share with a 15.7% target share, 40.5 receiving yards per game, 2.11 yards per route run, and an 18.9% first-read share. In those six games, Waller has had seven red zone targets, four deep targets, and six touchdowns. In that span, he has averaged 13.5 PPR points per game, which over the course of the entire season would make him the TE5 in fantasy points per game. Waller the Baller should cook again this week. The Bengals have allowed the most receiving yards and the most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
N/A
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Quinn Ewers will get the start for Miami this week with Tua Tagovailoa benched. Ewers has attempted eight passes in the NFL, completing five of them with 6.6 yards per attempt. It’s anyone’s guess how he’ll perform this week. I wasn’t enamored with him as a prospect entering the NFL, but I do hope he proves me wrong and plays well this week. This is a great matchup for him to get his first NFL start, though. Since Week 11, Cincy has allowed the highest yards per attempt, the 12th-most passing yards per game, the eighth-highest passer rating, and the sixth-highest success rate per dropback. Ewers could easily post solid mid-range QB2 numbers this week.
Since Week 10, the Dolphins have moved to being a run-first team, and it has hurt Waddle as the WR28 in fantasy points per game since then. Since Week 10, his per-route numbers and market share have remained awesome, but the decrease in passing volume has lowered his weekly ceiling and floor. Across his last five games, he has had a 27.4% target share with 50.4 receiving yards per game, 2.38 yards per route run, and a 35.6% first-read share. That market share has amounted to only 6.2 targets per game. In that span, he has had only two red zone targets and seven deep targets. Add in a possible shadow from DJ Turner this week, and the uncertainty of Quinn Ewers under center and Waddle becomes a shaky player to start. DJ Turner has followed DK Metcalf (twice), Justin Jefferson, Romeo Doubs, Zay Flowers (twice), and Gabe Davis on 62.9-90.3% of their routes. None of those receivers surpassed 50 receiving yards in his coverage, and only Flowers scored a touchdown (in their second meeting).
Tee Higgins remains in the concussion protocol. He opened the week with a limited practice. I’ll update his outlook on Friday.
LAR vs. SEA | PHI vs. WAS | GB vs. CHI | BUF vs. CLE | LAC vs. DAL | NYJ vs. NO | TB vs. CAR | MIN vs. NYG | KC vs. TEN | CIN vs. MIA | ATL vs. ARI | JAC vs. DEN | LV vs. HOU | PIT vs. DET | NE vs. BAL | SF vs. IND
Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals
- ATL -2.5, O/U 47.5
- Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings
| Kirk Cousins | QB | QB1/2 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | RB1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | RB3 |
| Drake London | WR | TBD |
| Darnell Mooney | WR | TBD |
| David Sills | WR | WR5 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | TE1 |
Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB1 |
| Michael Carter | RB | RB2 |
| Emari Demercado | RB | RB4 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | TBD |
| Michael Wilson | WR | WR1 |
| Trey McBride | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
HE DID IT! I didn’t think he could, BUT HE DID IT! Jacoby Brissett kept the streak alive last week. He has STILL finished as a QB1 in every start this season. Since Week 6, he has been the QB4 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 6, among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Brissett has ranked first in passing yards per game, first in dropbacks (the next closest quarterback is 60 dropbacks behind him), second in passing touchdowns, 21st in highly accurate throw rate, and 26th in catchable target rate. Brissett should keep the QB1 train rolling along in Week 16. Since Week 11, Atlanta has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game, the 12th-most yards per attempt, and the eighth-highest CPOE.
Unfortunately, Kirk Cousins can’t play the Buccaneers weekly. In his last three meetings with Tampa Bay, he has finished as the QB1, QB3, and QB3 in weekly scoring, so I guess last week’s performance shouldn’t be a surprise. It was, though, because last week was just the second time this season he has thrown for multiple passing touchdowns, and the first game that he surpassed 240 yards through the air. Overall, among 48 qualifying passers, Cousins is 30th in yards per attempt, ninth in highly accurate throw rate, 40th in fantasy points per dropback, and 33rd in hero throw rate. Cousins likely doesn’t equal last week’s output, but he could surprise and flirt with QB1 production. Arizona’s pass defense has fallen apart. Since Week 11, Arizona has allowed the fifth-most yards per attempt, the most passing touchdowns, the second-highest passer rating, and the third-highest CPOE.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Last week, with Zonovan Knight injured and Emari Demercado back, Carter was given the keys to the offense to operate as their bellcow with an 80.3% snap share, 18 touches, and 94 total yards. Carter also had a 62.8% route share and a 10% target share. I expect Carter to operate in this role again this week. Carter hasn’t been efficient with his workload, sadly. He hasn’t managed an explosive run this season while posting only a 4% missed tackle rate and 1.39 yards after contact per attempt. Carter is a volume-based RB2/3. Since Week 11, Atlanta’s run defense has picked up the slack, allowing the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest explosive run rate, and the fourth-fewest yards before contact per attempt.
Tyler Allgeier is a solid flex play again this week. Allgeier has averaged 8.8 touches and 35.4 total yards this season with eight top-36 finishes among running backs in weekly scoring. Among 45 qualifying backs, Allgeier ranks 18th in explosive run rate and 33rd in missed tackle rate. Arizona’s run defense has been engaged in a competition with the pass defense over the last few weeks to see who can play worse. Since Week 11, you could argue that the run defense is winning, giving up the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest missed tackle rate, and the fifth-most yards before contact per attempt.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Marvin Harrison Jr. opened this week with a limited practice (heel). I’ll update his outlook on Friday, but I’m approaching it right now as if he is out again this week.
Drake London opened this week with a limited practice (knee). I’ll update his outlook on Friday, but I expect him to sit out again this week and possibly return next week. Atlanta is out of playoff contention and has zero reason to rush him back.
Drake London has a chance to return this week. I’ll update Darnell Mooney‘s outlook on Friday once we know if London will be back.
LAR vs. SEA | PHI vs. WAS | GB vs. CHI | BUF vs. CLE | LAC vs. DAL | NYJ vs. NO | TB vs. CAR | MIN vs. NYG | KC vs. TEN | CIN vs. MIA | ATL vs. ARI | JAC vs. DEN | LV vs. HOU | PIT vs. DET | NE vs. BAL | SF vs. IND
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos
Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | QB1/2 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | RB | RB1 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | Doubtful |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | WR2/3 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | WR3 |
| Parker Washington | WR | WR4/5 |
| Dyami Brown | WR | WR5 |
| Brenton Strange | TE | TE1 |
Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings
| Bo Nix | QB | QB1/2 |
| R.J. Harvey | RB | RB2 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | RB4 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | WR2 |
| Troy Franklin | WR | WR3/4 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | WR4/5 |
| Pat Bryant | WR | WR4 |
| Evan Engram | TE | TE2/3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Courtland Sutton is the WR16 in fantasy points per game. After a down stretch of games, he has rebounded nicely in recent weeks. Since Week 11, Sutton has had a 20.6% target share, 74 receiving yards per game, 2.19 yards per route run, and a 26.5% first-read share. In those four games, he has had six red zone targets and six deep targets. This week, he faces a Jacksonville pass defense that, since Week 11, has had the sixth-highest two-high rate (57.3%). Since Week 11, against two high, Sutton has seen a 20.5% target share and 22.2% first-read share, but his yards per route run has dipped to 1.48. Sutton might take an efficiency hit this week, but he’ll still lead the Denver passing attack against a Jacksonville pass defense that since Week 10 has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game and eighth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 12, Brenton Strange has had two TE1 weekly finishes (TE4, TE7). In his last four games, Strange has had a 15% target share, 47.8 receiving yards per game, 2.08 yards per route run, and a 14.5% first-read share with five red zone targets and four deep targets. Strange should produce as a TE1 again this week, and he could lead the Jags’ passing attack. Since Week 9, Denver has allowed the third-most receiving yards and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
After last week’s monster game, Trevor Lawrence is the QB7 in fantasy points per game with QB1 outings in weekly scoring in five of his last seven games. Since Week 9, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, Lawrence ranks 12th in passing yards per game, sixth in yards per attempt, second in passing touchdowns (tied), 13th in highly accurate throw rate, and seventh in hero throw rate. The generational talent has bubbled to the top for Lawrence. It has been amazing to watch. The true litmus test for Lawrence is this week. Denver still fields one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Since Week 11, Denver has allowed the ninth-fewest yards per attempt, the 12th-lowest passer rating, and the 11th-lowest success rate per dropback.
Last week, Nix put on a clinic against a talented Green Bay pass defense as the QB2 for the week with 302 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, 8.9 yards per attempt, and a 67.6% completion rate. Overall, among 44 qualifying passers, Nix ranks 14th in passing yards per game, 20th in highly accurate throw rate, 15th in hero throw rate, and 19th in fantasy points per dropback. Nix needs to answer the call again this week against a strong pass defense. Since Week 11, Jacksonville has allowed the second-fewest yards per attempt, the sixth-fewest passing yards per game, the third-lowest passer rating, and the fifth-lowest success rate per dropback. Nix may overcome the tough matchup again, but we have also seen him struggle plenty of times this season against strong pass defense, so it’s a coin flip.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
RJ Harvey sustained a rib injury last week, but he is practicing in full so it doesn’t look like a concern for Week 16. Since Week 11, Harvey has averaged 18 touches and 69.3 total yards as the RB12 in fantasy points per game. During this span, among 51 qualifying backs, he has ranked 25th in missed tackle rate, 12th in rushing success rate, and 44th in yards after contact per attempt. This week, he’ll encounter ANOTHER brutal run defense. Since Week 11, Jacksonville has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest explosive run rate, and the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate. Harvey will need to rely upon volume and touchdown equity again.
Patrick Surtain will shadow Jakobi Meyers or Brian Thomas Jr. this week. Who will it be? That’s a great question. Considering how integral Meyers has been to the Jags’ passing attack since his arrival, I do lean that it’ll be Meyers, but I could easily be wrong about that. Since Week 11, Meyers has been the WR19 in fantasy points per game with a 23.9% target share, 62.8 receiving yards per game, 2.26 yards per route run, and a 29.6% first-read share. In those five games, Meyers has had six red zone targets and one deep target. Surtain has shadowed six times this season, following A.J. Brown, Calvin Ridley, Quentin Johnston, Terry McLaurin, Christian Watson, and Ja’Marr Chase on 64.3-94.7% of their routes. Only McLaurin scored a touchdown with Surtain in tow, and none of those receivers surpassed 61 receiving yards in his coverage. Fade Meyers this week.
Since Week 13, Brian Thomas Jr. has had two top 24 wide receiver weekly finishes (WR23, WR15) while seeing a 17.8% target share with 60.3 receiving yards, 2.21 yards per route run, and a 26.2% first-read share. During this three-game stretch, he has had a 21.0 aDOT, and 50% of his targets have been downfield. This isn’t the matchup to consider flexing Brian Thomas Jr. Since Week 9, Denver has allowed the eighth-lowest deep ball completion rate and the fourth-lowest passer rating to downfield passing. If that doesn’t scare you, then I’ll also add that since Week 10, Denver has allowed the 12th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Sit Troy Franklin this week. His route share rebounded last week with a 58.3 route share, but the coverage matchup isn’t in his favor this week. This week, he faces a Jacksonville pass defense that, since Week 11, has had the sixth-highest two-high rate (57.3%). Since Week 11, against two high, Franklin has had a 10.2% target share, 1.48 yards per route run, and a 13.3% first-read share. The Jags have allowed substantial production to perimeter wide receivers, so that could help Franklin this week. He is still a thin play when looking at the coverage matchup and his recent usage. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game and eighth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Last week, in his return to the lineup, Parker Washington split the slot role with Tim Patrick. Washington had only a 52.8% route share, a 9.4% target share, and a 9.5% first-read share. Washington is droppable at this point. He’s not worth holding on a roster with the Jags’ passing offense at full strength and his role trending downward.
LAR vs. SEA | PHI vs. WAS | GB vs. CHI | BUF vs. CLE | LAC vs. DAL | NYJ vs. NO | TB vs. CAR | MIN vs. NYG | KC vs. TEN | CIN vs. MIA | ATL vs. ARI | JAC vs. DEN | LV vs. HOU | PIT vs. DET | NE vs. BAL | SF vs. IND
