Fantasy Football Player Notes
2025 Draft Rankings
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1.
Josh Allen
BUF
The Bills QB took home the MVP last year, although he finished as the QB2 overall and in points per game hitting over a 22-point threshold. It was impressive given that Allen lost in his top two WRs from the previous season. However, he failed to hit 4,000 passing yards and 29 passing TDs for the first time since 2019. Even so, he made up ground as a rusher, going for 12 scores.
The Bills QB has finished either QB1 or QB2 for five straight seasons. Entering his age-29 season, it should be more of the same in 2025. |
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2.
Lamar Jackson
BAL
The Ravens QB threw 41 TDs compared to just four interceptions in 2024. That awarded him fantasy QB1 overall status in 17 games played, although he hardly needed Week 18. Jackson's 25.6 points per game were more than three points higher than the QB2.
With the core offensive nucleus of Derrick Henry and OC Todd Monken returning, it's hard to envision Jackson as anything but a top 3 fantasy QB. The only "factors" working against Jackson are the historical trends. Leading the NFL in TD-INT ratio typically results in regression the following season, as does overall team health. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Ravens had the fewest injuries in the NFL in 2024. |
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3.
Jayden Daniels
WAS
The offensive rookie of the year took the league by storm in 2024, finishing as the QB4 through 17 weeks and as QB6 in points per game throughout the postseason. The Washington QB took command of the Kliff Kingsbury offense and operated as a deadly dual threat averaging over 22 points per game. He rushed for over 1,000 yards in 20 games trailing only Lamar Jackson.
If the Commanders can add more pieces around Daniels during the offseason, we should major boost in his passing numbers. The rookie finished 2024, third in expected fantasy points per game, making him an easy-locked-and-loaded top 5 fantasy quarterback entering Year 2. |
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4.
Jalen Hurts
PHI
Only Lamar Jackson scored more fantasy points on a higher rate per dropback than Jalen Hurts. The Super Bowl MVP finished the season averaging over 22 points per game as the QB5. His strong postseason is a reminder that Hurts is an elite fantasy commodity and should be drafted as such with a great supporting cast returning. The Eagles QB has rushed for 13-plus TDs in three straight seasons. In the tush push, we trust.
And if a combination of Saquon Barkley and the Eagles defense take a step back in any way, Hurts would become a major fantasy winner after leading the NFL's most run-heavy offense. |
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5.
Joe Burrow
CIN
Burrow's 2024 campaign will be lost in time because of how bad the defense for Cincinnati was. But there's no denying how elite Burrow played, leading the NFL in passing yards, TDs, completions and attempts.
The Bengals QB re-established himself as the league's No. 1 pure pocket passer, finishing as the QB3 overall and in points per game (22.5). But as the most expensive non-mobile passer to draft - to go along with his injury history and potential loss of his second-best WR - Burrow will carry more risk in 2025 at an expensive tag. |
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6.
Baker Mayfield
TB
The Buccaneers QB hit career-highs across the board in 2024, tossing 43 TDs while rushing for nearly 400 yards and 3 more scores. Mayfield finished the season as top five fantasy QB overall and points per game (22.3).
But with Liam Coen gone and replaced by new OC Josh Grizzard (the Buccaneers' passing coordinator from last season) concerns about a production falloff should be considered. Mayfield is coming off a career 7.2 passing TD rate - the second-highest mark in 2024. Although his high early ranking suggests these concerns are being overblown for a QB who has been a top 10 fantasy producer both years in Tampa Bay. Still, I'm leaning on him being slightly overrated this high in the rankings. |
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7.
Patrick Mahomes II
KC
The Chiefs finished 2nd in pass rate over expectation in 2024. Patrick Mahomes ranked fourth in expected fantasy points per game.
But alas, for the second straight season, he did not deliver. Mahomes was under 20 points per game (19.1) as the QB10. It was his second straight year he failed to finish top 7 overall, and his first finish outside the top 10 since he became a starter. However, not all his fault. Rashee Rice got hurt, Travis Kelce showed his age and Xavier Worthy took time to get going. Once the rookie got ramped up, the production followed. Week 8 onward, the Chiefs QB averaged 21 points per game. There are enough positives from last year to buy the dip on the Chiefs QB in your 2025 drafts. |
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8.
Jared Goff
DET
The Lions QB finished 2024 as the QB7 in points per game (19.4) and QB6 overall. 3rd in passing yards per game.
But Jared Goff hit his stride as injuries derailed the Lions' defense. From Week 11 onward, Goff averaged north of 25 points per game. Weeks 1-10 with a healthier defense? Fewer than 16.5 points per game. That's just one red flag the Detroit QB has to face in 2025. The loss of OC Ben Johnson figures to be a challenge. Goff was just the QB18 in expected fantasy points per game, with virtually zero rushing to supplement his passing production. Among top-8 finishers last season, Goff posted the highest bust rate at 31%. |
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9.
Kyler Murray
ARI
No quarterback was more frustrating to roster than the Cardinals QB. He was an emotional roller coaster as the QB11 overall and QB12 in points per game (17.5).
Among QBs to finish in the top 12 overall, Murray's 38% bust rate was the highest. He finished outside the top 12 QBs weekly in less than half of his games. But Murray was completely tough to outright bench because, between bad games, he would post 21-plus fantasy points - which he did seven times. But only once did he post strong outings in consecutive weeks. I understand the frustration, as noted in my NEVER DRAFT AGAIN video from earlier this offseason. Over the last three seasons, he has averaged over 30 rushing yards per game. But he's also the only QB to hit that threshold while also failing to finish top 10 in fantasy points per dropback. Woof. But Murray was STILL fourth in QB rushing yards last season. WR Marvin Harrison Jr. will take a step forward in Year 2. TE Trey McBride will catch more TDs as Murray threw 7 fewer passing touchdowns compared to expectation. |
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10.
Jordan Love
GB
The Packers QB struggled to stay healthy in 2024, finishing as the QB17 overall in 15 games played. He was the QB19 in points per game (15.7) as he failed to hit both his passing and rushing numbers from 2023. The Packers' offense went extremely heavy towards the run and that limited Love's fantasy upside.
Presuming better health in 2025, the Packers QB should enjoy better statistics. But without a true No. 1 WR and reliable rushing, he'll need a lot to fall in his favor to back to mid-range QB1 status. |
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11.
Justin Herbert
LAC
Herbert was extremely efficient during the 2024 season albeit before a 4-interceptions implosion in the wild-card round of the postseason.
He was the QB15 in points per game (16.7) and QB13 overall in his first season under offensive coordinator, Greg Roman. The offensive environment limited Herbert's upside as a fantasy QB1 as he ranked just 30th in expected points per game (15.6). After the bye week, the offense leaned more into the passing game and Herbert's production increased. But it wasn't enough to get him out of low-end fantasy QB1 purgatory. He was also egregiously inconsistent. His 56% bust rate was equivalent to Caleb Williams, and the highest among all QBs inside the top 15. The Bolts QB hasn't finished as a top 10 fantasy QB for three straight seasons, after finishing as such in his first two seasons. Unless we see a dramatic shift in personnel or offensive coaching philosophy in LA, expect Herbert to finish back in the QB10-15 range. |
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12.
Bo Nix
DEN
The Broncos rookie QB had a stellar first year in Sean Payton's offense, finishing as the QB9 overall and in points per game (19). Nix threw 30 TDs and rushed for nearly 500 yards and four scores on the ground. From Week 8 on, the Denver signal caller was hitting over 21 points per game.
Even so, Nix averaged fewer than 20 points per game in the season's entirety. Also, he had a 31% bust rate that was tied for the highest among top 10 finishers. If Denver finds its "joker" on offense this season, we could see the 25-year-old second-year QB improve. Especially with his nucleus of top WRs returning from last season. |
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13.
Brock Purdy
SF
The 49ers QB did not live up to expectations in 2024, finishing as the QB9 in points per game (19.0) and QB12 in 17 games. Injuries devasted the San Fran offense which forced Brock Purdy's production to regress. 2024 was the first season where Purdy posted a passing TD rate below 7% (4.4%).
But with better health in 2025, we should expect Purdy to rebound. Even in a down season, his efficiency still got the Kyle Shanahan scheme bump. Purdy's 8.5 yards per attempt ranked second-best in the NFL. He ranked 5th in passing yards per game (257.6). |
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14.
Caleb Williams
CHI
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15.
C.J. Stroud
HOU
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16.
Drake Maye
NE
The Patriots QB is going to enter the top 12 QB conversation this season. The offensive environment in New England is going to improve for Maye with additions in free agency and the Draft. And I can't ignore his dual-threat skill set.
Among the 7 QBs in 2024 that hit 30-plus rushing yards - which includes Maye - five finished inside the top 6 scoring QBs on a per-dropback basis. What the Pats QB did as a rookie in a terrible situation cannot be understated. He threw at least one TD pass in the 10 games he played fully as a rookie. That resulted in 18.1 fantasy points per game which would have ranked QB15 on the year. |
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17.
Anthony Richardson
IND
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18.
Tua Tagovailoa
MIA
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19.
Dak Prescott
DAL
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20.
Matthew Stafford
LAR
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21.
Trevor Lawrence
JAC
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22.
Sam Darnold
SEA
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23.
Michael Penix Jr.
ATL
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24.
Bryce Young
CAR
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25.
Geno Smith
LV
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26.
Justin Fields
NYJ
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27.
J.J. McCarthy
MIN
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28.
Cam Ward
FA
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29.
Shedeur Sanders
FA
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30.
Derek Carr
NO
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31.
Russell Wilson
FA
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32.
Aaron Rodgers
FA
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33.
Daniel Jones
IND
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34.
Will Levis
TEN
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35.
Jaxson Dart
FA
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36.
Aidan O'Connell
LV
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37.
Kirk Cousins
ATL
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38.
Deshaun Watson
CLE
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39.
Jameis Winston
FA
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40.
Jalen Milroe
FA
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41.
Mac Jones
SF
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42.
Gardner Minshew II
KC
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43.
Jacoby Brissett
ARI
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44.
Joe Milton III
NE
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45.
Cooper Rush
BAL
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46.
Kenny Pickett
CLE
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47.
Malik Willis
GB
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48.
Mason Rudolph
PIT
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49.
Jake Browning
CIN
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50.
Marcus Mariota
WAS
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51.
Tyrod Taylor
NYJ
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52.
Carson Wentz
FA
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53.
Hendon Hooker
DET
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54.
Joshua Dobbs
NE
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55.
Sam Howell
SEA
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56.
Joe Flacco
FA
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57.
Drew Lock
FA
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58.
Trey Lance
FA
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59.
Davis Mills
HOU
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60.
Jimmy Garoppolo
LAR
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61.
Zach Wilson
MIA
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62.
Nick Mullens
JAC
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63.
Tyler Huntley
FA
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64.
Andy Dalton
CAR
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65.
Taylor Heinicke
LAC
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66.
Kyle Trask
FA
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67.
Jordan Travis
NYJ
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68.
Tommy DeVito
NYG
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69.
Jarrett Stidham
DEN
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70.
Tyson Bagent
CHI
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71.
Desmond Ridder
FA
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72.
Spencer Rattler
NO
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73.
Mitchell Trubisky
BUF
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74.
Tyler Shough
FA
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75.
Case Keenum
FA
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76.
Clayton Tune
ARI
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77.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson
PHI
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78.
C.J. Beathard
FA
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79.
Kyle McCord
FA
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80.
Will Howard
FA
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81.
Jake Haener
NO
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82.
Stetson Bennett
LAR
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83.
Bailey Zappe
KC
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84.
Skylar Thompson
PIT
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85.
Dillon Gabriel
FA
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86.
Riley Leonard
FA
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87.
Quinn Ewers
FA
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